2007 NBA Draft Talent Ladder

[Jerichoholic]

I've noticed lately on many talk shows people are asking about where the breaks are in the draft, at what picks does the talent drop to the next level. That being the case I thought I would offer my two cents and see what everyone else thinks. IMO the Kings are in an unfortunate spot but not a difficult one meaning that the top two levels won't be available to them but they should have many options at the third level...here's how I think it breaks down.

Level 1
Greg Oden
Kevin Durant

Level 2
Al Horford
Brandon Wright
Corey Brewer
Joakim Noah
Yi Jianlian

Level 3
Jeff Green
Mike Conley
Julian Wright
Al Thornton
Spencer Hawes

Barring any surprises the Kings should have their choice of 3 players from the third level. I don't like Green or Hawes, but Conley would be a nice pick as he is a good fit for an uptempo style of play, especially if Bibby is traded. Wright and Thornton are athletic freaks with Wright the more polished, but Thornton with more upside. Wright is a swingman while Thornton could potentially play PF.

 

[Smills91]

I've noticed lately on many talk shows people are asking about where the breaks are in the draft, at what picks does the talent drop to the next level. That being the case I thought I would offer my two cents and see what everyone else thinks. IMO the Kings are in an unfortunate spot but not a difficult one meaning that the top two levels won't be available to them but they should have many options at the third level...here's how I think it breaks down.

Level 1
Greg Oden
Kevin Durant

Level 2
Al Horford
Brandon Wright
Corey Brewer
Joakim Noah
Yi Jianlian

Level 3
Jeff Green
Mike Conley
Julian Wright
Al Thornton
Spencer Hawes

Barring any surprises the Kings should have their choice of 3 players from the third level. I don't like Green or Hawes, but Conley would be a nice pick as he is a good fit for an uptempo style of play, especially if Bibby is traded. Wright and Thornton are athletic freaks with Wright the more polished, but Thornton with more upside. Wright is a swingman while Thornton could potentially play PF.

Funny, I'm probably highest on Green and Hawes at #10.

 

[uptempo-kings]

wouldn't al horford be in level 1 everywhere i go everyone talks about how nba ready this guy is but i agree with you, that seems about right, but if i did it horford would be level 1, level 3 stinks unless we can nab conley and trade up.

 

[ForlornKing]

wouldn't al horford be in level 1 everywhere i go everyone talks about how nba ready this guy is but i agree with you, that seems about right, but if i did it horford would be level 1, level 3 stinks unless we can nab conley and trade up.

No...


Horford's nice but he's no Oden or Durant. He doesn't have the tools to be a dominant franchise player for years and years to come. Top of the second tier is right where he belongs.

 

[Jerichoholic]

Funny, I'm probably highest on Green and Hawes at #10.

What do you like about Green and Hawes? I'm just curious. Maybe you see something that I don't, but here are my opinions.

Green won't be much more than a John Salmons type. He does everything well, but nothing great. More importantly he doesn't have the length or the athletic tools to be a dominate "do-all" type such as Tayshawn Prince or Kirilenko. I guess it's always possible that if he had the coaching and passion he could develop into a Grant Hill type of leader, but I just don't see it.

Hawes really is a Brad Miller with post moves which is nice but it's not enough and it's not what we need. He still is inadequate when it comes to defense, shot blocking, and rebounding. Not to mention he has no athleticism whatsoever.

 

[jimbodan]

I'd put Conley in that second tier. But I agree with Smills I'm definitely in favor of the Kings grabbing Green or Hawes. I'd also by thrilled if somehow either Conley or Yi fell to the Kings at 10.

 

[jimbodan]

What do you like about Green and Hawes? I'm just curious. Maybe you see something that I don't, but here are my opinions.

Green won't be much more than a John Salmons type. He does everything well, but nothing great. More importantly he doesn't have the length or the athletic tools to be a dominate "do-all" type such as Tayshawn Prince or Kirilenko.

He measured out at 6 foot 9.5 inches with a 7.1 foot wingspan. That's pretty good length.

 

[uptempo-kings]

No...


Horford's nice but he's no Oden or Durant. He doesn't have the tools to be a dominant franchise player for years and years to come. Top of the second tier is right where he belongs.

i have to disagree with you, we are going with college prospects, none of these guys are proven nba greats, and since we're going with college prospects i believe horford can be considered in that argument, anyone can be a bust, how do we know for certain a player will be dominant for years to come? predraft workouts? come on, but if we're calling it by college stats i would have to put horford up there level 1.

 

[thedofd]

Bill Simmons, ESPN's "The Sports Guy," said that Yi Jianlian is Chinese for "Brad Lohaus." Obviously, Simmons is a funny guy who says a lot of things just to get a reaction. But there doesn't appear to be a real clear-cut consensus on the guy (positive: good size and skills; negative: language and cultural issues, toughness). So even though he might turn out to be great, I'm kind of rooting for the Kings not to have to make that decision.

 

[Gary]

I'd put Conley in that second tier. But I agree with Smills I'm definitely in favor of the Kings grabbing Green or Hawes. I'd also by thrilled if somehow either Conley or Yi fell to the Kings at 10.

I have a feeling Jason Smith will turn out to be a better player than Hawes. While I haven't seen much action from either one the action I HAVE seen points to Smith as having the higher ceiling on the potential level.

 

[Gary]

i have to disagree with you, we are going with college prospects, none of these guys are proven nba greats, and since we're going with college prospects i believe horford can be considered in that argument, anyone can be a bust, how do we know for certain a player will be dominant for years to come? predraft workouts? come on, but if we're calling it by college stats i would have to put horford up there level 1.

You won't draft Horford to build a team around. You will draft Durant, and Oden to do so though.

If Horford turns out to be better than the both of them than this might change. But as it stands now there are only two players in the draft you can say you will build a team around.

 

[Bricklayer]

Bill Simmons, ESPN's "The Sports Guy," said that Yi Jianlian is Chinese for "Brad Lohaus." Obviously, Simmons is a funny guy who says a lot of things just to get a reaction. But there doesn't appear to be a real clear-cut consensus on the guy (positive: good size and skills; negative: language and cultural issues, toughness). So even though he might turn out to be great, I'm kind of rooting for the Kings not to have to make that decision.

The language at least is not an issue -- he actually speaks remarkably good English.

And Simmons...is an entertainer. There is very little of Jianlian's game and Lohaus's former game that are comparable. But obviously that's not what Bill was up to.


Gerneally agree with the splits BTW (J.Wright being nearly #2 and Noah being a bit shaky on the #2/#3 line). And continue to espouse the extreme desirability of somehow getting up into the 2nd grouping. One of those 2nd tier guys could slip to #8 or even #9 (largely due to Conley being a PG), but its too much to hope that they would slip to #10. That basically requires that Conley, Hawes and Wright are all taken before one of those guys. Maybe, but nothing you want to bank on.

 

[uptempo-kings]

You won't draft Horford to build a team around. You will draft Durant, and Oden to do so though.

If Horford turns out to be better than the both of them than this might change. But as it stands now there are only two players in the draft you can say you will build a team around.

thats exactly what im trying to say that he should be a top 3 prospect, and no one is for certain, wether or not you want to build around him i never said that i just believe he deserves top 3

 

[JoMama]

According to Philly Inquirer, Yi's stock is dropping and the Sixers think they can grab him at No. 12. Of course, that would mean Kings would pass on him at No. 10. Fine with me.

 

[ParniValjak]

According to Philly Inquirer, Yi's stock is dropping and the Sixers think they can grab him at No. 12. Of course, that would mean Kings would pass on him at No. 10. Fine with me.

Kings won't pass on him at 10.

If we are to believe the rumours on draftexpress, Minnesota will pick Hawes at 7 which means one of the other players will slide down. And there is a chance that Boston might select Green at 5 if they don't trade that pick which would mean we get another slider. I do agree with Bricklayer though. They might slide to 8 or 9 but its hard seeing them slide down to 10.

EDIT: You pretty much need just one of the teams picking between 3-8 to take someone that wasn't expected to go there and it disrupts the entire order of the draft. Looking at those teams in the 3-8 range, I see Boston and Minnesota as two teams that might picks someone there thats a bit unexpected and someone will slide down. Lets just hope thats its a legit big rather than a SF/PG type.

 

[jimbodan]

I have a feeling Jason Smith will turn out to be a better player than Hawes. While I haven't seen much action from either one the action I HAVE seen points to Smith as having the higher ceiling on the potential level.

While I still like Hawes better, I wouldn't mind trading down and grabbing Smith either.

 

[Kingster]

Here's how I think it breaks down:


Level 1
Greg Oden
Kevin Durant

Level 2
Al Horford

Level 2a
Corey Brewer

Level 3
Brandon Wright
Joakim Noah
Yi Jianlian
Jeff Green
Mike Conley
Julian Wright
Spencer Hawes
Thornton

Horford may not have the talent of top 2, but he's a rock solid riskless pick at #3. According to many, HE was the MVP of the Florida group. Brewer in my view is also very low risk, and therefore I put him just behind Horford.

Everybody else has risks, either because they've been inconsistent, no-competition factor (Yi), lack of a shot, lack of athleticism. That's why there is a big bunch in Level 3.

That's another reason why Petrie isn't going to be trading up.

 

[Jerichoholic]

According to Philly Inquirer, Yi's stock is dropping and the Sixers think they can grab him at No. 12. Of course, that would mean Kings would pass on him at No. 10. Fine with me.

I was just looking at the mock draft from nbadraft.net which IMO has been one of the most accurate over the years and its new one has the Kings taking Yi at 10. Actually their first 8 picks do seem reasonable as far as team needs and current news wise. The biggest roadblock is at 9 with the Bulls, they have the Bulls taking Wright which I could see as they are heavily interested in both Wright and Hawes as well as Yi.

Another rumor has the Warriors trading up with the Bulls to get Yi and it makes a lot of sense as Yi's agent says he wants to play in California and he fits Don Nelson's system BIG TIME!

 

[Vlade4GM]

I was just looking at the mock draft from nbadraft.net which IMO has been one of the most accurate over the years and its new one has the Kings taking Yi at 10. Actually their first 8 picks do seem reasonable as far as team needs and current news wise. The biggest roadblock is at 9 with the Bulls, they have the Bulls taking Wright which I could see as they are heavily interested in both Wright and Hawes as well as Yi.

Another rumor has the Warriors trading up with the Bulls to get Yi and it makes a lot of sense as Yi's agent says he wants to play in California and he fits Don Nelson's system BIG TIME!

Actually their rep has been quite the opposite of that.

 

[Jerichoholic]

Actually their rep has been quite the opposite of that.

I believe they've been right on for the Kings the last few years. I'm not sure if they had Douby right but I believe they had Martin and Garcia.

 

[Kingster]

I was just looking at the mock draft from nbadraft.net which IMO has been one of the most accurate over the years and its new one has the Kings taking Yi at 10. Actually their first 8 picks do seem reasonable as far as team needs and current news wise. The biggest roadblock is at 9 with the Bulls, they have the Bulls taking Wright which I could see as they are heavily interested in both Wright and Hawes as well as Yi.

Another rumor has the Warriors trading up with the Bulls to get Yi and it makes a lot of sense as Yi's agent says he wants to play in California and he fits Don Nelson's system BIG TIME!

Golden State has nothing that Chicago wants.

 

[Bricklayer]

Golden State has nothing that Chicago wants.

Well, if Jason Richardson is truly available not so sure there. A Heinrich/Richardson w/ Gordon off the bench as the third guard backcourt would be pretty outstanding for them. Not the big there are purpotedly looking for, but it would make them much better than they were last year.

 

[Kingster]

Well, if Jason Richardson is truly available not so sure there. A Heinrich/Richardson w/ Gordon off the bench as the third guard backcourt would be pretty outstanding for them. Not the big there are purpotedly looking for, but it would make them much better than they were last year.

I just don't think Richardson does it for them. They want a big guy. Hawes, would be my guess because they have no low post scorer.

 

[thedofd]

The language at least is not an issue -- he actually speaks remarkably good English.

And Simmons...is an entertainer. There is very little of Jianlian's game and Lohaus's former game that are comparable.

Maybe Yi's the best thing from China since kung pao chicken, but there are some question marks that make me a bit nervous and may be causing him to slide down draft boards a tad. As a Kings fan, I'd just feel more comfortable with them taking a player who has faced college competition and about whom more is known. This is from Chad Ford's ESPN Insider story of Thursday:

"Is Yi The Real Deal?

It really depends on whom you ask. Since I wrote my first story on Yi, I've been flooded with e-mails and a few phone calls from skeptics. While everyone agrees that Yi is an interesting prospect and one of the elite players in China, some think he is being vastly overrated by NBA teams.
Why?
The two common concerns I am hearing are about his age and about his lack of toughness and overall basketball IQ."

 

[kennadog]

Actually, Chad Ford had an article on the "tier" system in the Insider, the other day. I'll give portions:

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft2007/insider/columns/story?columnist=ford_chad&page=TierSystem
Strategy session: Ranking draft prospects by tiers

By Chad Ford
ESPN Insider

Updated: June 18, 2007

To make sense of disparate rankings and debates over team needs, several teams who have been very successful in the draft employ what I call a "Tier System" of ranking players. Instead of getting an exact order from one to 60 of the best players in the draft, they group players, based on overall talent level, into tiers. Then, the team ranks the players inside each tier based on team need.

This system allows teams to draft not only the best player available, but also the player who best fits a team's individual needs.

So what do the tiers look like this year? After talking to several NBA GMs and scouts who employ this system for their teams, I've put together these tiers. (Because the teams do not want to divulge their draft rankings publicly, the teams have been left anonymous.)

TIER 1
Greg Oden
Kevin Durant

Note: There seems to be a clear preference for Oden among GMs, but everyone agrees both players have superstar potential and are clearly the consensus top two in the draft.

TIER 2
Corey Brewer
Mike Conley
Jeff Green
Al Horford
Yi Jianlian
Brandan Wright

Note: One team expanded this tier to include all of Tier 3, essentially making Tier 2 the third through 12th picks, but most everyone else made a cut right before the players in Tier 3. I'd also note that there was near consensus that Horford is the third-best player in the draft.

TIER 3

Spencer Hawes
Joakim Noah
Al Thornton
Julian Wright

Note: Tier 3 represents the final four players in the top 12. Every team I spoke with had the same 12 players in the top 12. That's a pretty amazing consensus for this deep in the draft. It also shows the depth of the draft itself. Last year, Tiers 1, 2 and 3 consisted of a total of seven players.

TIER 4
Javaris Crittenton
Acie Law
Rodney Stuckey
Nick Young
Thaddeus Young

Note: The consensus really starts to break up here. Some have Smith and Williams ranked higher. Some have McRoberts and Hardin ranked lower.

​

 

[kennadog]

TIER 6
Arron Afflalo
Marco Belinelli
Derrick Byars
Daequan Cook
Glen Davis
Jared Dudley
Nick Fazekas
Rudy Fernandez
Marc Gasol
Taurean Green
Petteri Koponen
Marcus Williams

Note: If you do the math, 36 players are on the list. Why 36 guys for 30 slots? I included in Tier 6 every player that a team told me was in its top 30. I suspect had I polled every team, this number would have expanded to around 40 players.

So how does the tier system work?

A team ranks individual players inside each tier according to team need. So, in Tier 2, if point guard is the biggest need, Mike Conley is ranked No. 1 in Tier 2. If power forward is the biggest need, Al Horford or Brandan Wright is ranked No. 1 depending on individual team preference.

The rules are then pretty simple. You always draft the highest-ranked player within a given tier. So, for example, if the Bulls are drafting No. 9 (Tier 3 territory) and Corey Brewer is on the board (a Tier 2 player), they take him regardless of position. The rule is that you never take a player from a lower tier if one from a higher tier is available. So if the Bulls had Spencer Hawes ranked No. 1 in Tier 3, they'd still take Brewer, even though center is a more pressing need.

What this system does is protect teams from overreaching based on a team need. The Bulls won't pass on a clearly superior player like Brewer to fill a need with Hawes. However, the system also protects a team from passing on a player who fits a need just because he may be ranked one or two spots lower overall.

He explained this with an example also, but a long one. Basically, everyone in a tier is considered to be of equal potential impact, even though in a straight 1-30 ranking system you would be ranking them one over another. If you consider them about equal potential, then you take the one from that tier that fits need best, even if another player would be placed a slot or two higher in the 1-30 system.

 

[Bricklayer]

Maybe Yi's the best thing from China since kung pao chicken, but there are some question marks that make me a bit nervous and may be causing him to slide down draft boards a tad. As a Kings fan, I'd just feel more comfortable with them taking a player who has faced college competition and about whom more is known. This is from Chad Ford's ESPN Insider story of Thursday:

"Is Yi The Real Deal?

It really depends on whom you ask. Since I wrote my first story on Yi, I've been flooded with e-mails and a few phone calls from skeptics. While everyone agrees that Yi is an interesting prospect and one of the elite players in China, some think he is being vastly overrated by NBA teams.
Why?
The two common concerns I am hearing are about his age and about his lack of toughness and overall basketball IQ."

Not sure why peopole think playing against college guys makes them "known". How many NBA players does a typical player in college match up against every year? Half dozen? I would almost be willing to bet you that the competion in the Chinese basketball leagues, which are sprinkled BTW wiht a handful of former college stars and NBA washouts, is at least as good as what a guy like Kevin faced at Western Carolina. How exactly is competing in a world of 6'7" centers and 6'3" SFs somehow this great superior stage?

P.S. As to age, WORST case scenario Yi is 22, which basically makes him a college senior. Best case he's a college sophomore (in which case he's incredibly advanced).

 

[Warhawk]

He explained this with an example also, but a long one. Basically, everyone in a tier is considered to be of equal potential impact, even though in a straight 1-30 ranking system you would be ranking them one over another. If you consider them about equal potential, then you take the one from that tier that fits need best, even if another player would be placed a slot or two higher in the 1-30 system.

OK.....

And this would be different from a straight ranking of 1-30 exactly how?

In terms of draft preference only, whether you have the tiers or not, you still have all 30 players in an order. Whether you draw an artificial line after picks #2 and #8 ( and #....) doesn't really matter. You still are choosing in an order.

Now, I guess if you are looking at draft-day trades, etc, breaking them up into tiers for talent may help somewhat, but I don't really see how this is all that and a bag-o-chips....

 

[kennadog]

OK.....

And this would be different from a straight ranking of 1-30 exactly how?

In terms of draft preference only, whether you have the tiers or not, you still have all 30 players in an order. Whether you draw an artificial line after picks #2 and #8 ( and #....) doesn't really matter. You still are choosing in an order.

Now, I guess if you are looking at draft-day trades, etc, breaking them up into tiers for talent may help somewhat, but I don't really see how this is all that and a bag-o-chips....

Since it's in the Insider I didn't want to post the whole thing, including the tables and the long explanation for this, but I'll try (they used an Atlanta example from a couple of years ago):

Within a tier everyone is equal to you as far as potential impact. Once you've determined your tier ranking, then you do a secondary ranking within each tier, according to your team's need. So let's say you have your 6-9 players in the same tier. The 6th and 7th are PFs, the 8th is a SF, and #9 is a PG.

Your team desperately needs a PG first and then a PF. Your within tier ranking now goes 9PG, 6PF, 7PF and 8SF. So if everyone in that tier is available when you choose, you take #9, instead of #6. On the other hand, if, when you choose, 6, 7 and 9 are gone, you take #8. You do not drop to the next tier to get a PG or a PF, because at that point you think the SF at #8 is the BPA. You ranked him as a better player than anyone you could get in the next tier.

He felt, in the example that Atlanta drafted strictly best player available, when a player that fit a need was only a couple of slots down and might have actually had the equal potential (same tier).

On the other hand, it's supposed to help you resist the temptation to reach down to a lower tier to meet a need; pick what you think is a less talented player, just because that fullfills a need.

 

[thedofd]

Not sure why peopole think playing against college guys makes them "known". How many NBA players does a typical player in college match up against every year? Half dozen? I would almost be willing to bet you that the competion in the Chinese basketball leagues, which are sprinkled BTW wiht a handful of former college stars and NBA washouts, is at least as good as what a guy like Kevin faced at Western Carolina. How exactly is competing in a world of 6'7" centers and 6'3" SFs somehow this great superior stage?

P.S. As to age, WORST case scenario Yi is 22, which basically makes him a college senior. Best case he's a college sophomore (in which case he's incredibly advanced).

While things certainly have changed with the arrival of so many good international players, the standard for judging NBA prospects historically has been success at the college level. Oden and Durrant were locks for the top picks before they did a single NBA-supervised workout because they dominated college competition. So while college hoops may not be a "superior stage," it's all most of us have to go by.

You're right in saying that Yi has probably faced, and done well against, players comparable to U.S. collegiate players. And if Yi had played at UCLA or Arkansas or Minnesota, I'd probably be a lot more excited about him being there at No. 10. There's probably a little ethnocentrism, a little fear of the unknown, going on in my head. Sorry. He clearly has some good things going for him, and the Kings would probably be lucky to get him.

That being said, if the Kings drafted him and he were mediocre or a bust, I suspect a lot of folks who are pretty quiet now would say, "I told you so!" Whereas if the Kings drafted, say Green or Conley, and they didn't pan out, the reaction would more likely be, "How did that happen?"

I mean no disrespect to Yi. It's just a comfort level, a familiarity. If the Kings draft Yi, I'll buy his jersey and hope for the best.