Probably Dirk, although these last few weeks have me thinking maybe its time for the LeBron era to officially begin.
Thing is, the MVP is normally an award that has gone to the best player on a championship contender. Because of that, think it eliminates guys who absolutely would be in the running otherwise.
Pistons mania has calmed down a bit, so I no longer think there is going to be pressure to give it to Chauncey, or whoever, just because they are a Piston ala that All Star debacle. Duncan has been a shell of himself, so he is out. Miami has been disappointing, so that and the normal Shaq/Wade split probably mean those guys are out.
So that leaves Dirk really as the best "great player on a great team" candidate. Kinda of like Garnett when he finally won one when his team took that next step.
The interesting part is how the leaders of the next tier of teams are going to be treated -- specifically Nash keeping the Suns afloat and LeBron emerging into mega-stardom on a 50 win type team and powering them down the stretch.
Think Kobe's only shot is that 81 he hung up, but the team just isn't good enough, especially not if it slips back to the #8 seed.