“THE” Trade Deadline Move to Make…

[twslam07]

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ATL Gets: Trey Lyles & 2025 SAC 1st (changing from top 12 protected to unprotected)
ATL Gives: Larry Nance Jr, 2025 MIN 2nd, & 2027 LAC 2nd
Why for ATL? With Johnson, Risacher, Hunter, Capela, and Okongwu all able to log minutes at PF or C, it leaves little room for Nance to carve out minutes. Instead, they ship him off and a couple 2nds for an expiring (Lyles) and to make the SAC pick completely unprotected. This gives ATL two swings at winning the lottery via the LAL pick and SAC pick (both of which are currently 11th and 12th in tankathon rankings)

PG - Young / Krejci
SG - Daniels / Bogdanovic / Bufkin
SF - Risacher / Hunter / Matthews
PF - Johnson / Lyles / Roddy / Gueye
C - Capela / Okongwu

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BKN Gets: Kevin Huerter, 2025 MIN 2nd, 2026 SAC 2nd, 2027 LAC 2nd, & 2027 SAC 2nd
BKN Gives: Dorian Finney-Smith
Why for BKN? The Nets move on from their likely expiring 31 year old 3&D forward and lean further into their rebuild by adding for 4 2nd round picks spread out over the next 3 years and take a look at the 26 year old Huerter.

PG - Melton / Milton
SG - Thomas / Huerter / Johnson
SF - Johnson / Williams / Whitehead
PF - Simmons / Wilson / Watford
C - Claxton / Sharpe / Clowney

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SAC Gets: Dorian Finney-Smith & Larry Nance Jr.
SAC Gives: Kevin Huerter, Trey Lyles, 2025 SAC 1st (changing from top 12 protected to unprotected), 2026 SAC 2nd, & 2027 SAC 2nd
Why for Kings? What do the Kings need? We need size, length, athleticism, defense, and shooting. This trade does just that without giving up any future 1sts (in fact, it guarantees that all of our future 1sts will be freed up to trade in the 2025 off-season).

DFS gives us another really good big wing/forward defender to throw at opposing teams star players while at the same time he can offer us some rim/paint protection and floor spacing on offense. His combination of size, strength, length, athleticism, defense, rim/paint protection, and shooting makes him a terrific fit at PF next to Sabonis.

Larry Nance Jr is also another very intriguing fit for the Kings. He has essentially the same length as Lyles (9’0” standing reach and a 7’1.5” wingspan) and is a somewhat comparable shooter to Lyles (Lyles has a career .347 3P% and Nance has a career .351 3P%) although Lyles tends to shoot a larger volume. However, Nance is much more athletic and a much better defender than Lyles.

Nance’s combination of length (9’0” standing reach) and athleticism (37.5” max vert) will give us an excellent lob threat to add to our offense. Monk will be able to take advantage of this action regularly. Nance’s athleticism will also give us a big man who can run the floor with Fox & Monk (similar to what we’ve seen with Isaac Jones) and help us convert those fastbreak opportunities at a higher rate.

Nance’s combination of defense, athleticism, and defense makes it much easier for us to play him as our primary backup C since his athleticism and defense will allow him to play “bigger” than Lyles did in the same backup C role.

In general, I really like a 9 man rotation of Fox, Monk, Ellis, Carter, DeRozan, Murray, DFS, Nance, and Sabonis. It’s very well balanced and I think we’d have the potential to be top 5 in ORTG and top 10 in DRTG with those 9 guys playing the bulk of the minutes. We’d have…

• 4 players who can go get 20+ on any given night (Fox, Monk, DeRozan, & Sabonis)
• 4 players who can pass & playmake for others (Fox, Monk, DeRozan, & Sabonis and perhaps Carter has some potential here as well)
• Solid floor spacing/shooting (Murray, Monk, and Ellis being great shooters from 3 and Fox, Carter, Finney-Smith, Nance, and Sabonis being solid shooters from 3)
• 2 good PnR targets for our passers to hit (Sabonis & Nance)
• 3 great guard defenders (Fox, Ellis, & Carter), 2 great forward defenders (Murray & DFS), and 2 decent/solid big man defenders (Sabonis & Nance)

And again, the other somewhat good thing about this trade is that it guarantees that all of our future 1sts will be able to be traded when we get to the 2025 off-season since the 2025 1st will convey no matter what. This allows us to make a bigger, more significant move if we did not meet expectations to close out the 2024-25 season.

PG - Fox / Ellis / McLaughlin
SG - Monk / Carter / Jones
SF - DeRozan / McDermott
PF - Murray / DFS / Crowder
C - Sabonis / Nance / Len / Robinson

---------------------------------------

 

[iowamcnabb]

---------------------------------------

ATL Gets: Trey Lyles & 2025 SAC 1st (changing from top 12 protected to unprotected)
ATL Gives: Larry Nance Jr, 2025 MIN 2nd, & 2027 LAC 2nd
Why for ATL? With Johnson, Risacher, Hunter, Capela, and Okongwu all able to log minutes at PF or C, it leaves little room for Nance to carve out minutes. Instead, they ship him off and a couple 2nds for an expiring (Lyles) and to make the SAC pick completely unprotected. This gives ATL two swings at winning the lottery via the LAL pick and SAC pick (both of which are currently 11th and 12th in tankathon rankings)

PG - Young / Krejci
SG - Daniels / Bogdanovic / Bufkin
SF - Risacher / Hunter / Matthews
PF - Johnson / Lyles / Roddy / Gueye
C - Capela / Okongwu

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BKN Gets: Kevin Huerter, 2025 MIN 2nd, 2026 SAC 2nd, 2027 LAC 2nd, & 2027 SAC 2nd
BKN Gives: Dorian Finney-Smith
Why for BKN? The Nets move on from their likely expiring 31 year old 3&D forward and lean further into their rebuild by adding for 4 2nd round picks spread out over the next 3 years and take a look at the 26 year old Huerter.

PG - Melton / Milton
SG - Thomas / Huerter / Johnson
SF - Johnson / Williams / Whitehead
PF - Simmons / Wilson / Watford
C - Claxton / Sharpe / Clowney

---------------------------------------

SAC Gets: Dorian Finney-Smith & Larry Nance Jr.
SAC Gives: Kevin Huerter, Trey Lyles, 2025 SAC 1st (changing from top 12 protected to unprotected), 2026 SAC 2nd, & 2027 SAC 2nd
Why for Kings? What do the Kings need? We need size, length, athleticism, defense, and shooting. This trade does just that without giving up any future 1sts (in fact, it guarantees that all of our future 1sts will be freed up to trade in the 2025 off-season).

DFS gives us another really good big wing/forward defender to throw at opposing teams star players while at the same time he can offer us some rim/paint protection and floor spacing on offense. His combination of size, strength, length, athleticism, defense, rim/paint protection, and shooting makes him a terrific fit at PF next to Sabonis.

Larry Nance Jr is also another very intriguing fit for the Kings. He has essentially the same length as Lyles (9’0” standing reach and a 7’1.5” wingspan) and is a somewhat comparable shooter to Lyles (Lyles has a career .347 3P% and Nance has a career .351 3P%) although Lyles tends to shoot a larger volume. However, Nance is much more athletic and a much better defender than Lyles.

Nance’s combination of length (9’0” standing reach) and athleticism (37.5” max vert) will give us an excellent lob threat to add to our offense. Monk will be able to take advantage of this action regularly. Nance’s athleticism will also give us a big man who can run the floor with Fox & Monk (similar to what we’ve seen with Isaac Jones) and help us convert those fastbreak opportunities at a higher rate.

Nance’s combination of defense, athleticism, and defense makes it much easier for us to play him as our primary backup C since his athleticism and defense will allow him to play “bigger” than Lyles did in the same backup C role.

In general, I really like a 9 man rotation of Fox, Monk, Ellis, Carter, DeRozan, Murray, DFS, Nance, and Sabonis. It’s very well balanced and I think we’d have the potential to be top 5 in ORTG and top 10 in DRTG with those 9 guys playing the bulk of the minutes. We’d have…

• 4 players who can go get 20+ on any given night (Fox, Monk, DeRozan, & Sabonis)
• 4 players who can pass & playmake for others (Fox, Monk, DeRozan, & Sabonis and perhaps Carter has some potential here as well)
• Solid floor spacing/shooting (Murray, Monk, and Ellis being great shooters from 3 and Fox, Carter, Finney-Smith, Nance, and Sabonis being solid shooters from 3)
• 2 good PnR targets for our passers to hit (Sabonis & Nance)
• 3 great guard defenders (Fox, Ellis, & Carter), 2 great forward defenders (Murray & DFS), and 2 decent/solid big man defenders (Sabonis & Nance)

And again, the other somewhat good thing about this trade is that it guarantees that all of our future 1sts will be able to be traded when we get to the 2025 off-season since the 2025 1st will convey no matter what. This allows us to make a bigger, more significant move if we did not meet expectations to close out the 2024-25 season.

PG - Fox / Ellis / McLaughlin
SG - Monk / Carter / Jones
SF - DeRozan / McDermott
PF - Murray / DFS / Crowder
C - Sabonis / Nance / Len / Robinson

---------------------------------------

I think those are both great targets but I would have 2 questions:

1) are you playing Nance as the back up 5? If not how are you getting minutes for both DFS and him? I didn’t see that you addressed this in your lineup at the end

2) does this deal make sense for Atlanta? If we are a top 5 offense and close to top 10 defense like you and the rest of us would hope, that pick will convey anyway without giving up any assets.

I do like the idea of having pick flexibility after this year though.

 

[twslam07]

I think those are both great targets but I would have 2 questions:

1) are you playing Nance as the back up 5? If not how are you getting minutes for both DFS and him? I didn’t see that you addressed this in your lineup at the end

2) does this deal make sense for Atlanta? If we are a top 5 offense and close to top 10 defense like you and the rest of us would hope, that pick will convey anyway without giving up any assets.

I do like the idea of having pick flexibility after this year though.

Yeah, I’d definitely play Nance as the backup 5 here. I think he plays bigger than Lyles due to his athleticism advantage and the fact that he’s a good defender. The minutes rotation would probably be something like this…

PG - Fox (34) / Monk (14)
SG - Monk (16) / Ellis (20) / Carter (12)
SF - DeRozan (34) / Murray (8) / Carter (6)
PF - Murray (22) / DFS (26)
C - Sabonis (34) / Nance (14)

Fox = 34 min
DeRozan = 34 min
Sabonis = 34 min
Monk = 30 min
Murray = 30 min
DFS = 26 min
Ellis = 20 min
Carter = 18 min
Nance = 14 min

You could probably drop DeRozan down to 32 and maybe Monk down to 28 if you want to give some of these other guys a few more min. And I’d let Ellis and Carter duke it out. If one is leaps & bounds better than the other, I’d reallocate the minutes between those two.



As for why ATL would do it…having the potential to be top 5 in ORTG and top 10 in DRTG and actually being top 5 in ORTG and top 10 in DRTG are two different things.

Yes, this trade makes us better, but the fact is that we’re currently 12th in the brutal western conference and would receive the 11th overall pick in the upcoming draft if no lottery luck occurs. If we don’t improve this year, ATL could miss out on the pick again which leaves 2026 as the last chance to receive a 1st. If the Kings flounder again in the 2025-26 season, all of a sudden ATL has no 1st to show for the Huerter trade.

At least by unprotecting the 2025 1st, ATL is guaranteeing they get a 1st while also giving them an outside chance of having some lottery luck (if the Kings continue to struggle to make up ground the rest of the year).

 

[pdxKingsFan]

DFS is still the "likely" target I would want and if we have to sweeten the deal to get him I am totally fine with this package to ATL.

TBH I might be having a hard time seeing us not outbid for either player but we don't have much else to work with.

 

[SacTownKid]

Man, the only thing about that pick is imagine if the Kings backslide and somehow got the first pick? Yeah, Monte has entered GM infamy at that point. Like all time kind of stuff. Not sure role player depth even if it fits are worth the risk. Top 1 protected at a bare minimum.

 

[iowamcnabb]

Man, the only thing about that pick is imagine if the Kings backslide and somehow got the first pick? Yeah, Monte has entered GM infamy at that point. Like all time kind of stuff. Not sure role player depth even if it fits are worth the risk. Top 1 protected at a bare minimum.

my guess is you would only do that if it was on the deadline and you are 5-10 games over .500

 

[iowamcnabb]

Man, the only thing about that pick is imagine if the Kings backslide and somehow got the first pick? Yeah, Monte has entered GM infamy at that point. Like all time kind of stuff. Not sure role player depth even if it fits are worth the risk. Top 1 protected at a bare minimum.

it is an interesting thought to try to use that pick as value. If we have something weird happen next year and end up top ten they just get second rounders. Speaking of that, are our second rounders protected because of the possibility that the pick doesn’t convey as a first?

 

[Capt. Factorial]

it is an interesting thought to try to use that pick as value. If we have something weird happen next year and end up top ten they just get second rounders. Speaking of that, are our second rounders protected because of the possibility that the pick doesn’t convey as a first?

Yes, our '26 and '27 second round picks are currently encumbered. We can't trade them because they might legally convey. The trade proposed here is able to trade them because it modifies teh previous deal with Atlanta (and is only possible because Atlanta is involved).

The trade here would result in us having only one second round pick (2029) and 5+1 firsts (2026-2030, 2031 San Antonio owns a swap) in our possession.

 

[iowamcnabb]

Yes, our '26 and '27 second round picks are currently encumbered. We can't trade them because they might legally convey. The trade proposed here is able to trade them because it modifies teh previous deal with Atlanta (and is only possible because Atlanta is involved).

The trade here would result in us having only one second round pick (2029) and 5+1 firsts (2026-2030, 2031 San Antonio owns a swap) in our possession.

so what second rounders do we currently have available to trade?

 

[Capt. Factorial]

so what second rounders do we currently have available to trade?

2029

That's all.

Technically we own Chicago's pick this year if they finish 2-5 overall. They won't. We can technically trade that chunk of pick, but it has no value except as a "we made a trade but didn't actually include anything" something.

 

[iowamcnabb]

Dang, I was under the impression we had 3 available. That means we either need to move a first, find a player for player trade no picks (unlikely) or work with Atlanta on that pick situation. I suppose if we move a first for a guy like DFS you would need to get some seconds back. He’s a risk because although I don’t think he will get more than his current yearly salary, he may choose to opt out to get a longer deal and maybe he is willing to take a midlevel contract (a lower yearly salary) if that means he gets to pick the team and city

 

[The_Jamal]

Huerter and 4 seconds for DFS is crazy. They're the same level of player, why are we including an arm and a leg of picks for a guy headed to UFA?

 

[iowamcnabb]

Huerter and 4 seconds for DFS is crazy. They're the same level of player, why are we including an arm and a leg of picks for a guy headed to UFA?

I don’t think they are seen as the same level player by the league right now, they likely were 2 years ago, maybe even favoring Kev. DFS plays the more valuable position, can defend 4 positions and is currently shooting 44 percent from 3.

trading for him is a risk with that player option. Maybe you get some agreement in place where he opts in.

 

[The_Jamal]

I don’t think they are seen as the same level player by the league right now, they likely were 2 years ago, maybe even favoring Kev. DFS plays the more valuable position, can defend 4 positions and is currently shooting 44 percent from 3.

trading for him is a risk with that player option. Maybe you get some agreement in place where he opts in.

I mean I love DFS, I've wanted him for like 5 years now. He's been a perfect fit for here for ages. But we are still talking about a guy averaging 11/4/2, is 32 years old and you have no team control over him.

I agree that we'd have to add, with Kev's struggles over the last 1year and a half. But like 1 or 2 2nds, not 4.

 

[twslam07]

Huerter and 4 seconds for DFS is crazy. They're the same level of player, why are we including an arm and a leg of picks for a guy headed to UFA?

Well it’s simple…they’re not the same level of player.

 

[iowamcnabb]

So a quick glance through the league and I came up with only a handful of teams that have the need, the salary and the assets to make a trade for DFS or Nance Jr

1) Dallas- obviously connection there and close friend of Luka. They have the salary to match and guys like Hardy or Omax to move plus draft capital

2) Lakers- can match salary and even with a Jonas trade will have 2-3 second rounders to play with.

3) Warriors- if they feel like the shooting of either would be an upgrade over Kyle Anderson they have all their firsts and 3 seconds to move.

4) OKC- why not, already the best defense in the league why not trade a bunch of picks they will never need to bring more defense and shooting to the frontcourt.

most of the other teams don’t need a wing or don’t have the matching salary.

the kings are one of the few teams that needs a wing, has the matching salary but doesn’t have enough second rounders or young pieces to move without some further maneuvering.

I’m comfortable trading a first round pick at the deadline for the right player or combo of players.

If we don’t use Lyles salary this year in a deal we are going to have just Kevs salary moving forward as salary matching trade asset (outside of the core of course)

 

[iowamcnabb]

Stein said we are one of the most aggressive teams.

https://hoopswire.com/nba-trade-rumors-news-nets-warriors-lakers-kings/

 

[hrdboild]

Both of the guys you're acquiring here are going to be free agents at the end of this season. That tips this into the "too risky for my taste" category. There's really only one way this succeeds -- the team takes off, wins a playoff series (or two) and then one or both of these guys takes the Malik Monk discount to stick around and build from there. In almost every other circumstance we'd be overpaying for one roll of the dice and burning our only significant trade assets in the process.

I also don't entirely agree with the methodology of targeting two guys for trade when there's really only enough playing time for one of them. It muddies the waters for player roles and there's very little time here to reconfigure those on the fly. Not to mention, Isaac Jones is already looking like a fantastic value rotation big and you've squeezed him out of the rotation entirely (off the roster based on your projected depth chart) in order to play two guys who are 5 month rentals in their 30s. We need to continue developing young guys who show promise like Isaac Jones and Keon Ellis with those Fox and Murray contract extensions coming up in the near future. And I would hesitate to move Huerter right now at the absolute basement of his value before we've seen what Devin Carter looks like on an NBA court. This gets tricky because the trade deadline is Feb. 6th and then Huerter becomes an expiring contract, but even if he has no trade value we could still benefit from having Huerter in the depth chart next season.

I am totally onboard with packaging any of our expiring contracts (Lyles, Len, McDermott, Robinson, JMac) for short-term help because none of them have proven themselves to be indispensable parts of this current team. But I'd prefer that we pool those trade assets into getting one guy who can help to fix our defensive issues in the frontcourt. Preferably that one guy is more than a 5 month rental and we have the ability to keep them for a couple years without torching our payroll.

 

[iowamcnabb]

I also don't entirely agree with the methodology of targeting two guys for trade when there's really only enough playing time for one of them. It muddies the waters for player roles and there's very little time here to reconfigure those on the fly. Not to mention, Isaac Jones is already looking like a fantastic value rotation big and you've squeezed him out of the rotation entirely (off the roster based on your projected depth chart) in order to play two guys who are 5 month rentals in their 30s.

twslam has 40 minutes allocated to the two new additions. Seems reasonable given Nance would be taking Len/Jones/ Robinson minutes and DFS would be lightening Keegan’s minutes plus Lyles’ and taking some of Kevin’s.


Isaac Jones is an interesting piece. I’m a big fan, but can we count on him this year? Coach has basically said the back up center position is open and so far he hasn’t earned Brown’s trust. If he can show out over the next couple weeks that makes Monte’s deadline decision easier.

 

[twslam07]

I mean I love DFS, I've wanted him for like 5 years now. He's been a perfect fit for here for ages. But we are still talking about a guy averaging 11/4/2, is 32 years old and you have no team control over him.

I agree that we'd have to add, with Kev's struggles over the last 1year and a half. But like 1 or 2 2nds, not 4.

Not that it’s a massive difference but DFS is 31 (not 32).

You referenced 11/4/2 so let’s look at DFS compared to Keegan (per 36 min)…

DFS: .639 TS% / .448 3P% / 13.6 PTS / 5.3 REB / 2.1 AST / 1.2 STL / 0.7 BLK / 1.2 TO / 3.7 PF
Murray: .523 TS% / .299 3P% / 12.3 PTS / 7.6 REB / 1.5 AST / 0.7 STL / 0.8 BLK / 1.0 TO / 3.1 PF

I think this just goes to show that counting stats anren’t everything, and there are a lot of things a player can do that contribute to winning that don’t show up in the box score. I think boiling a player down to just their per game points, rebounds, and assists is a little disingenuous especially when that said player is a role player who’s primary goal is to defend and space the floor.

I don’t think you’re going to get DFS for 1 or 2 2nds. An expiring Royce O’Neale went for 3 2nd round picks and I consider DFS a better and more valuable player given his size & length.

 

[The_Jamal]

Not that it’s a massive difference but DFS is 31 (not 32).

You referenced 11/4/2 so let’s look at DFS compared to Keegan (per 36 min)…

DFS: .639 TS% / .448 3P% / 13.6 PTS / 5.3 REB / 2.1 AST / 1.2 STL / 0.7 BLK / 1.2 TO / 3.7 PF
Murray: .523 TS% / .299 3P% / 12.3 PTS / 7.6 REB / 1.5 AST / 0.7 STL / 0.8 BLK / 1.0 TO / 3.1 PF

I think this just goes to show that counting stats anren’t everything, and there are a lot of things a player can do that contribute to winning that don’t show up in the box score. I think boiling a player down to just their per game points, rebounds, and assists is a little disingenuous especially when that said player is a role player who’s primary goal is to defend and space the floor.

I don’t think you’re going to get DFS for 1 or 2 2nds. An expiring Royce O’Neale went for 3 2nd round picks and I consider DFS a better and more valuable player given his size & length.

I mean, I wasn't really trying to get into it, but we can if you want. You're also overvaluing his bounce back this season after 2 years of pretty steady decline from his peak as a Mav:

134 games total:

Last season: (per 36) 54.6% TS // 34.8% 3pt// 10.8 PPG/ 5.9 RPG/ 2.0 APG/ 0.7 BPG/1.1 T.O/ 2.8 PF
2 years ago: 52.3% TS// 33.7% 3pt // 9.9 PPG // 5.7 RPG // 1.8 APG // 0.6 BPG/ 1.1 TO // 2.6 PF

Most of his Ast%/Reb%/TOV% has stayed pretty consistent; it's just whether he's made shots or hasn't made shots. Like you said, he's out there to hit 3's and play defense. Haven't watched enough of the Nets to really comment on if his defense has fallen off or not, but I'd probably it's safe to assume it's not as good as it's been in the past.

He's shooting great this year, for sure. In a 17 game sample. His previous 134 games has been pretty bad for a guy where that's his main source of offensive value. And that's what made him such a dynamo role player all those years is that he became an elite shooter.

Also the Royce deal isn't comparable because the 2nd round picks WERE the main value source. You're including a valuable player AND a large draft capital for a guy that's largely shown signs of decline and is heading to UFA. Not for me.

Now, Trey Lyles+3 or 4 2nds? Sure, I'm in. That's appropriate value for a player like DFS.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

Not that it’s a massive difference but DFS is 31 (not 32).

You referenced 11/4/2 so let’s look at DFS compared to Keegan (per 36 min)…

DFS: .639 TS% / .448 3P% / 13.6 PTS / 5.3 REB / 2.1 AST / 1.2 STL / 0.7 BLK / 1.2 TO / 3.7 PF
Murray: .523 TS% / .299 3P% / 12.3 PTS / 7.6 REB / 1.5 AST / 0.7 STL / 0.8 BLK / 1.0 TO / 3.1 PF

I think this just goes to show that counting stats anren’t everything, and there are a lot of things a player can do that contribute to winning that don’t show up in the box score. I think boiling a player down to just their per game points, rebounds, and assists is a little disingenuous especially when that said player is a role player who’s primary goal is to defend and space the floor.

I don’t think you’re going to get DFS for 1 or 2 2nds. An expiring Royce O’Neale went for 3 2nd round picks and I consider DFS a better and more valuable player given his size & length.

Those stats - or at least the impression they give that DFS outshines Keegan - are based on somewhat small sample shooting percentages from just this year alone. DFS (at 31 y.o.) is TS%ing 80 points above his career average, and shooting threes at 90 points above his career average. Keegan (at 24 y.o. - smaller career sample size but more room to improve) is TS%ing 40 points below his career average (and almost 50 points below his pre-2024 average) and shooting the three at 75 points below his career average (85 points below pre-2024).

If we believe that the numbers we see over the first 17/26 (DFS/Keegan) games are more reflective of their true talents than their career numbers, then using those numbers is correct. I personally believe the career numbers should have a lot more weight. And Keegan looks better than DFS on those career numbers (.573 vs. .562 TS%, .374 vs. .359 3PT%).

DFS would be a bench piece for us, and in that respect, is he really more valuable to us than Huerter? We certainly would expect better D, but Huerter gives us scoring punch and floor spacing off the bench that I don't think DFS can give us. I don't really think this team wins by shutting down the opponent's bench scoring. Going microwave against the opponent's bench? Probably more helpful.

So I kind of see DFS as a lateral move from Huerter that changes the style of the team but maybe doesn't really help much overall. That's why I'm much higher on Cam Johnson, who would make more sense plugging directly into that Huerter role and making us a bit larger/longer. So if we're going to go for it, then don't go halfway. Don't trade away firsts to rearrange the deck chairs. We should stick with what we have, or make an obvious upgrade.

 

[ShastaKingsFan]

I mean, I wasn't really trying to get into it, but we can if you want. You're also overvaluing his bounce back this season after 2 years of pretty steady decline from his peak as a Mav:

134 games total:

Last season: (per 36) 54.6% TS // 34.8% 3pt// 10.8 PPG/ 5.9 RPG/ 2.0 APG/ 0.7 BPG/1.1 T.O/ 2.8 PF
2 years ago: 52.3% TS// 33.7% 3pt // 9.9 PPG // 5.7 RPG // 1.8 APG // 0.6 BPG/ 1.1 TO // 2.6 PF

Most of his Ast%/Reb%/TOV% has stayed pretty consistent; it's just whether he's made shots or hasn't made shots. Like you said, he's out there to hit 3's and play defense. Haven't watched enough of the Nets to really comment on if his defense has fallen off or not, but I'd probably it's safe to assume it's not as good as it's been in the past.

He's shooting great this year, for sure. In a 17 game sample. His previous 134 games has been pretty bad for a guy where that's his main source of offensive value. And that's what made him such a dynamo role player all those years is that he became an elite shooter.

Also the Royce deal isn't comparable because the 2nd round picks WERE the main value source. You're including a valuable player AND a large draft capital for a guy that's largely shown signs of decline and is heading to UFA. Not for me.

Now, Trey Lyles+3 or 4 2nds? Sure, I'm in. That's appropriate value for a player like DFS.

How is he showing signs of decline? Why is it safe to assume that, without even watching him close at length?

 

[The_Jamal]

How is he showing signs of decline? Why is it safe to assume that, without even watching him close at length?

When you shoot

37.6%
39.4%
39.5%

from 3 in 3 consecutive seasons. And then:

33.7%
34.8%

from 3 in the next 2 seasons.


at age 31. I don't know, why don't you tell me why I shouldn't assume a shooting decline?

 

[ShastaKingsFan]

When you shoot

37.6%
39.4%
39.5%

from 3 in 3 consecutive seasons. And then:

33.7%
34.8%

from 3 in the next 2 seasons.


at age 31. I don't know, why don't you tell me why I shouldn't assume a shooting decline?

Does this only apply when you reach a certain age, or for anyone?

To me, he's clearly a capable good 3 pt shooter and there's no reason to believe that when he has another birthday, it will fall apart

 

[The_Jamal]

Does this only apply when you reach a certain age, or for anyone?

To me, he's clearly a capable good 3 pt shooter and there's no reason to believe that when he has another birthday, it will fall apart

Players get worse as they get older. You have no idea when the age cliff is, but generally, for most role players, it's around 30. We're seeing it with our own Trey Lyles.

So yes, it raises red flags when a guy is 31 and has seen a shooting decline in his last 164 games. I already said I can't speak to his defense, since I haven't watched him very much the last few seasons, but in general players that get older don't get better on defense. And I'm for damn certain he's not close to the same defender that he was on the Mavs, I don't need to see game film to know that. DFS on the Mavs was one of the better defenders in the league.

Again, since I apparently have to clarify everything I say on this site multiple times, I really like DFS. I think he'd help us a lot. I DO NOT want to pay the price tag that TWslam is suggesting. That would be a massive overpay.

 

[twslam07]

I mean, I wasn't really trying to get into it, but we can if you want. You're also overvaluing his bounce back this season after 2 years of pretty steady decline from his peak as a Mav:

134 games total:

Last season: (per 36) 54.6% TS // 34.8% 3pt// 10.8 PPG/ 5.9 RPG/ 2.0 APG/ 0.7 BPG/1.1 T.O/ 2.8 PF
2 years ago: 52.3% TS// 33.7% 3pt // 9.9 PPG // 5.7 RPG // 1.8 APG // 0.6 BPG/ 1.1 TO // 2.6 PF

Most of his Ast%/Reb%/TOV% has stayed pretty consistent; it's just whether he's made shots or hasn't made shots. Like you said, he's out there to hit 3's and play defense. Haven't watched enough of the Nets to really comment on if his defense has fallen off or not, but I'd probably it's safe to assume it's not as good as it's been in the past.

He's shooting great this year, for sure. In a 17 game sample. His previous 134 games has been pretty bad for a guy where that's his main source of offensive value. And that's what made him such a dynamo role player all those years is that he became an elite shooter.

Also the Royce deal isn't comparable because the 2nd round picks WERE the main value source. You're including a valuable player AND a large draft capital for a guy that's largely shown signs of decline and is heading to UFA. Not for me.

Now, Trey Lyles+3 or 4 2nds? Sure, I'm in. That's appropriate value for a player like DFS.

You very well may value Huerter at a 2nd or two, but you will come to find many people that think his contract gives him negative value. And now that he’s lost his starting role, that’s a lot of money to invest in a bench player that wouldn’t be considered a great/elite 6th man.

The point of comparing DFS to Murray is to highlight the fact that counting stats are not the end all be all. DFS’s impact is not tied to counting stats as much as someone like Fox hence why I thought it was an odd thing to include in your comment (especially since we’re not surrendering big assets in the trade).

 

[The_Jamal]

You very well may value Huerter at a 2nd or two, but you will come to find many people that think his contract gives him negative value. And now that he’s lost his starting role, that’s a lot of money to invest in a bench player that wouldn’t be considered a great/elite 6th man.

The point of comparing DFS to Murray is to highlight the fact that counting stats are not the end all be all. DFS’s impact is not tied to counting stats as much as someone like Fox hence why I thought it was an odd thing to include in your comment (especially since we’re not surrendering big assets in the trade).

But you yourself said his counting stats don't matter, but his shooting does. Which, I mostly agree, DFS doesn't provide much value outside his shooting on offense. Yet he's had a pretty big 2 year decline, before this season, on his shooting. So do you trust the 17-game sample that he's back? The last 2 years were just a blimp in his career?

Huerter's also really found a great role off the bench. He's finding his rhythm; his numbers the last 5 games when we've gone 4-1:

13.6 PPG
3.8 RPG
2.0 APG
1.2 SPG
41.2% from 3 ( 6.8 3PA)
65.7% TS

I just find it weird that Huerter is all of a sudden a negative value because he's struggled last year and this year, but we're just going to look past DFS equally struggling the past 2 years, while being older, with less team control. DFS would also be a 6th man here, there's no reason he should supplement Monk with the starters.

 

[twslam07]

Those stats - or at least the impression they give that DFS outshines Keegan - are based on somewhat small sample shooting percentages from just this year alone. DFS (at 31 y.o.) is TS%ing 80 points above his career average, and shooting threes at 90 points above his career average. Keegan (at 24 y.o. - smaller career sample size but more room to improve) is TS%ing 40 points below his career average (and almost 50 points below his pre-2024 average) and shooting the three at 75 points below his career average (85 points below pre-2024).

If we believe that the numbers we see over the first 17/26 (DFS/Keegan) games are more reflective of their true talents than their career numbers, then using those numbers is correct. I personally believe the career numbers should have a lot more weight. And Keegan looks better than DFS on those career numbers (.573 vs. .562 TS%, .374 vs. .359 3PT%).

DFS would be a bench piece for us, and in that respect, is he really more valuable to us than Huerter? We certainly would expect better D, but Huerter gives us scoring punch and floor spacing off the bench that I don't think DFS can give us. I don't really think this team wins by shutting down the opponent's bench scoring. Going microwave against the opponent's bench? Probably more helpful.

So I kind of see DFS as a lateral move from Huerter that changes the style of the team but maybe doesn't really help much overall. That's why I'm much higher on Cam Johnson, who would make more sense plugging directly into that Huerter role and making us a bit larger/longer. So if we're going to go for it, then don't go halfway. Don't trade away firsts to rearrange the deck chairs. We should stick with what we have, or make an obvious upgrade.

As I mentioned to Jamal, the point of comparing DFS to Murray is to highlight the fact that counting stats are not the end all be all. DFS’s impact is not tied to counting stats as much as someone like Fox hence why I thought it was an odd thing to include in your comment (especially since we’re not surrendering big assets in the trade).

As for the reference about the bench, we need to graduate from the line of thinking that bench players strictly play against other bench players. That’s not the case and certainly not in Brown’s rotations. We have 4 scorers who can get us 20 on any given night and are all very good with the ball in their hands (and Carter might give us another guy who can give us a scoring punch with the ball in his hands). These players can and have been staggered throughout the game which gives us consistent scoring threats for 48 mins. Also, it’s worth considering that despite…

• Monk missing 7 games
• DeRozan missing 5 games
• Sabonis missing 2 games
• Huerter shooting .311 on 5.9 3PA
• Murray shooting .299 on 5.5 3PA

…the Kings are 6th in ORTG (0.1 away from being 5th). I’m not overly worried about our offense and I don’t think replacing Huerter for DFS is going to make much of an impact either considering how poorly he has shot thus far. Our offense will probably get better regardless of if we do the trade or not (if we don’t make a trade, Huerter’s 3P% to end the year will likely be much higher than 31%. If we do make the trade, DFS will likely at least shoot better than 31% to end the year).

So if our offense is already showing signs of being one of the better offenses in the league (and that is despite some of our key offensive options missing a combined 14 games thus far and despite our key floor spacers shooting 30-31% from three), do we really need to spend more assets trying to improve our offense even more? I don’t think so. I think it would be much more prudent to spend those assets in a way that improve your defense (without hurting your offense). DFS and Nance do just that.

We also have to recognize how much our defense could improve by making this trade. Within our rotation, we’d essentially be swapping…

Huerter
Lyles
McLaughlin
McDermott

for

DFS
Nance
Carter

…I think that upgrade gives us a real good shot at being a team that can be top 10 in DRTG as well. Combine that with a top shelf offense (as I mentioned earlier) and we’re cooking.

 

[iowamcnabb]

Monte knows the price on Cam, Kuzma and to a lesser extent DFS. Nothing really knew here. Add that to the fact that we have only only one second to trade without maneuvering Id imagine he plans to pull the trigger for either Cam or Kuzma. Huerter Lyles and a first is probably fair for Cam. I could have been talked into Kuzma last year but he is 100 percent not what we need with the current squad.