2016 NBA Draft Discussion

206Fan · Jun 20, 2016

no. I will NEVER approve of Vivek involved in basketball. This is coming from a guy who defended his crazy ass cherry picking idea. pls stay away.

he IS the worst owner in the NBA right now.... hasn't he learned? Firing Malone... letting other guys get into his ear... pushing for Stauskas... getting Karl? The only positive thing he's done is hire Vlade...and it's still a pending move.

hrdboild · Jun 20, 2016

The_Jamal said:

The main thing for me, especially when I'm looking at wing players, is that defense at that position is so important to team defense that I have to pass on an otherwise great prospect if they can't play NBA defense. And the flip side of that is that if I strongly believe in a player's defensive potential, I can overlook a lot of short-comings on offense. Since people keep bringing up Ben McLemore as a comparison for Jaylen Brown (I don't think it's a fair comparison though because Ben was an elite shooter his one year at Kansas and the "project" label around him was more about aggressiveness than ability and Jaylen Brown is not lacking in aggressiveness) -- consider this: if Ben were a lockdown defender right now, wouldn't it be a lot easier to live with his inconsistent offense? You need your wings to be enough of an offensive threat to stay on the floor, but there are other ways to impact the game besides taking over with your offense.

Stanley Johnson had several key qualities that made me elevate him to the top of my wishlist: (1) he's a physical presence at his position, he's not getting bullied by anyone (2) he's a student of the game -- in all of his interviews you could tell that he really enjoyed breaking down game tape and thinking through areas he needed to get better (3) his awareness of where to position himself on the floor to make a defensive impact was uncanny, and really speaks to how much work he put in watching tape and learning from it (4) he had the confidence to say "I want to take on Lebron, I want to lock him up" and even if he's not up to the task right now, if you look at his physical ability and his willingness to dissect game tape, I feel really good about his chances of becoming a lockdown defender by the time he's in his prime. And that's before you even begin to talk about his skillset as a scorer, which he showed in summer league last year was highly underrated.

I don't like Jaylen Brown as mush as I liked Stanley -- he's got more to work on offensively, and while his physical tools are exceptional he didn't demonstrate the off-the-charts defensive IQ that I saw from Stanley at Arizona. But he's a similar type of player - a physical presence with the mentality of a defensive role-player - and he exudes the same kind of confidence. I don't get as hung up as other people do about drafting players for immediate impact. Is there risk associated with developing younger players? Of course, but I'm always trying to project who these guys are going to be in the NBA when they reach their prime. I think the whole point of the draft is to take a shot at a player who you're not going to be able to get in free agency. For whatever reason, athletic wing defenders are either never on our radar or they have too many suitors to consider Sacramento. I think I skew heavily toward these types of guys in the draft for that reason.We were about as far as you can get from "grit and grind" this season and just bringing in Memphis' coach isn't going to get the job done. Brown isn't my #1 choice this year, but I like him a lot and I think the skillset and attitude he would bring from day one would help us in our transformation from inept to competent on defense.

hrdboild · Jun 20, 2016

bajaden said:

It's not an either/or but the draft is all about making choices. We could have gone with a perimeter defender or a PG last year and we went with the defensive big instead. There are a number of shooters in our range this year, some skilled big men, a couple PGs, some perimeter defenders. We've got to make a choice about what to prioritize. I like Hield's potential, but I also can't help thinking that another guard who's hunting their own shot isn't the best fit for the personality of the team. The guy who comes in saying "I don't even care about my offense, I just want to lock guys up" seems like a more natural fit to me. But then I'm frequently frustrated with our drafting strategy so I'm prepared to be disappointed yet again.

Dime Dropper · Jun 20, 2016

I would be fine with Hield but I'm not nearly as convinced as some of you guys are.

The Pikmin Lord · Jun 20, 2016

The_Jamal said:

Why? This is classic Vivek. I'm willing to bet anything that Vivek saw Buddy's scoring average and remarkable shooting touch and started drooling over it, while ignoring issues such as his mediocre defense, athleticism, and playmaking.

Maybe Hield ends up a great pick when everything's said and done, but it's not a stretch considering this is the guy who fell in love with the Warriors style and got all dewy-eyed over Stauskas when he made X out of 100 threes in practice. He shouldn't be allowed to make big basketball decisions at all.

bajaden · Jun 20, 2016

hrdboild said:

Well first, I think we made a good choice last year. Willie wasn't the only good choice, but he certainly was one of them, and you can't have them all. My priority is to get the best possible player available, and at number eight, I'm not sure Brown fits that description. Yes, he has a big upside, but so did McLemore. Yes, they're different players and might have a different outcome, but I'm not going to draft Brown simply because I think he can be a good defender in the NBA. Lets be clear, his defense was as suspect as his offense last season. Yes, he would make the highlight play on defense, and he would also get totally lost on defense. Now you can blame that on coaching if you will, but I can only go on what I see.

By no means am I saying that Brown won't be a good, or even a great player in the NBA, but he has a way to go to be that, and I think there are safer bets we could take. I have no reason to believe that Baldwin won't be a better player than Brown. Different position, and different size, but both are very athletic, and Baldwin is a far better shooter than Brown, and despite the knock on his ballhandling, he's a better ballhandler than Brown. Baldwin is just as likely to be a very good defender as Brown. Not saying we should draft Baldwin, but that I think there's a lot of hype to Brown that's inflating his value. I know some have compared him to Johnson or Winslow, but both those players were further along than Brown.

Look, I don't want to turn this into a anti-Brown thing. I actually like Brown. I just have a different perspective on where he should be on the draft board. I put more emphasis on skills than I do athleticism. Of course I love it when a player has both. Although some criticize Chriss for his rawness, I think right now, he's actually more skilled, or has more skills you can hang your hat on than Brown does. If I could get a game of one on one between Baldwin and Brown, I'd bet you a lunch of your choice at a restaurant of your choice that Baldwin would win that battle. I watched a lot of Cal games this season just to see Brown, and I didn't get many wow moments. I saw a lot of mistakes like silly reach in fouls on defense. His defense off the ball was particularly bad at times. All correctable of course. Just saying!

Bricklayer · Jun 20, 2016

The_Jamal said:

Nik rocks?

roasthawg · Jun 20, 2016

bajaden said:

Well first, I think we made a good choice last year. Willie wasn't the only good choice, but he certainly was one of them, and you can't have them all. My priority is to get the best possible player available, and at number eight, I'm not sure Brown fits that description. Yes, he has a big upside, but so did McLemore. Yes, they're different players and might have a different outcome, but I'm not going to draft Brown simply because I think he can be a good defender in the NBA. Lets be clear, his defense was as suspect as his offense last season. Yes, he would make the highlight play on defense, and he would also get totally lost on defense. Now you can blame that on coaching if you will, but I can only go on what I see.

By no means am I saying that Brown won't be a good, or even a great player in the NBA, but he has a way to go to be that, and I think there are safer bets we could take. I have no reason to believe that Baldwin won't be a better player than Brown. Different position, and different size, but both are very athletic, and Baldwin is a far better shooter than Brown, and despite the knock on his ballhandling, he's a better ballhandler than Brown. Baldwin is just as likely to be a very good defender as Brown. Not saying we should draft Baldwin, but that I think there's a lot of hype to Brown that's inflating his value. I know some have compared him to Johnson or Winslow, but both those players were further along than Brown.

Look, I don't want to turn this into a anti-Brown thing. I actually like Brown. I just have a different perspective on where he should be on the draft board. I put more emphasis on skills than I do athleticism. Of course I love it when a player has both. Although some criticize Chriss for his rawness, I think right now, he's actually more skilled, or has more skills you can hang your hat on than Brown does. If I could get a game of one on one between Baldwin and Brown, I'd bet you a lunch of your choice at a restaurant of your choice that Baldwin would win that battle. I watched a lot of Cal games this season just to see Brown, and I didn't get many wow moments. I saw a lot of mistakes like silly reach in fouls on defense. His defense off the ball was particularly bad at times. All correctable of course. Just saying!

I was just gonna ask who would people take between Brown and Baldwin? If I'm betting on it those are the two guys I think we'll be choosing between at eight. Murray, Dunn, and Hield will all probably be gone imo. I'm guessing we'd take Baldwin if it came down to him vs Brown but wouldn't shock me either way.

hrdboild · Jun 20, 2016

bajaden said:

There's nothing wrong with skilled players, of course. Here's my counter-argument though. Athleticism rarely improves once a players gets to the NBA, skillset almost always improves. How much you can reasonably expect it to improve is the million dollar question, but that's why you need to look at a player's personality and work ethic. What do their coaches and teammates say about them? How do they come across in interviews? The eventual player you're getting is a combination of athleticism, projectable skillset, and personality. I look for a good balance of all three. And McLemore's struggles are not Jaylen Brown's struggles. For one thing, I never saw Ben McLemore declare that he wanted to be a defensive stopper. He was a low-key guy in college and he's a low-key guy in the NBA. We've failed with 4 year players (Jimmer, Thompson) and we've failed with one-year wonders (McLemore, Whiteside) and everything in between. I remember all the talk about how Nik Stauskas was supposed to replace Ben as early as his rookie year and that clearly didn't happen. Why is Jaylen Brown more likely to be the next Ben McLemore than Buddy Hield? College stats guarantee nothing. It could just as easily be the other way around.

Which is why I think it's about time that people stopped talking about how "raw" certain prospects are and instead starting talking about them in terms of who they could be if they work hard enough and how likely they are (given what we do know about their personality and work-ethic) to reach that potential. Because with very few exceptions, these players are all raw compared to NBA veterans. Look at last year's draft -- "sure-things" Jahlil Okafor and D'Angelo Russell are already on the trading block while Myles Turner and Devin Booker -- guys who were looked at as "too raw" to make an immediate impact -- are already entrenched as franchise building blocks for their respective teams. When it comes to the draft, conventional wisdom is often wrong. And it's interesting to watch how a "safe" pick like Thomas Robinson has morphed with the benefit of hindsight into a "risky" pick just so people can avoid changing their draft philosophy. That's not a criticism of you directly, just a general vibe I've been getting from draft analysis this year. If you see a "safe" pick in this year's draft you're one up on me because right up to the #1 guy on the board I see a lot of risk involved.

206Fan · Jun 20, 2016

roasthawg said:

I feel like we should take Baldwin. Brown has a higher ceiling, but he's more raw. If Baldwin never pans out, this is what we get: 3&D PG. Considering we need a 3&D PG, that's not a bad floor. If Brown never pans out, we'll get an athletic wing who's undisciplined on defense.

I think Baldwin is much more likely to reach his ceiling than Brown is.

Both are talented, so I go with Baldwin. We really need a PG. We need a franchise PG more than anything imo.

LPKingsFan · Jun 20, 2016

206Fan said:

I feel like we should take Baldwin. Brown has a higher ceiling, but he's more raw. If Baldwin never pans out, this is what we get: 3&D PG. Considering we need a 3&D PG, that's not a bad floor. If Brown never pans out, we'll get an athletic wing who's undisciplined on defense.

I think Baldwin is much more likely to reach his ceiling than Brown is.

Both are talented, so I go with Baldwin. We really need a PG. We need a franchise PG more than anything imo.

This is about where I am

funkykingston · Jun 20, 2016

At this point I'd probably take Baldwin or Luwawu over both Brown and Hield.

Brown could turn out to be a great player but I just feel like he's too much of a gamble. With Hield, I fear that ultimately he's a bench shooter in the NBA. His senior year improvement was impressive and it gives some hope that he'll keep developing because obviously he's putting the time into his game. But it took until his fourth year for him to really break out as a major shooting force. But beyond shooting there's not a ton to his game. He's not a poor defender or a poor athlete, he has decent size, he isn't a poor ball handler or slasher but there's nothing else I see that will make him successful on the NBA level. He's safe as a role playing SG but I'm not sure he's ever going to be a high level starter in the NBA.

Baldwin and Luwawu have plenty of warts too but I think their ceilings are higher as two way role players.

Big Cuz 15 · Jun 20, 2016

funkykingston said:

At this point I'd probably take Baldwin or Luwawu over both Brown and Hield.

Brown could turn out to be a great player but I just feel like he's too much of a gamble. With Hield, I fear that ultimately he's a bench shooter in the NBA. His senior year improvement was impressive and it gives some hope that he'll keep developing because obviously he's putting the time into his game. But it took until his fourth year for him to really break out as a major shooting force. But beyond shooting there's not a ton to his game. He's not a poor defender or a poor athlete, he has decent size, he isn't a poor ball handler or slasher but there's nothing else I see that will make him successful on the NBA level. He's safe as a role playing SG but I'm not sure he's ever going to be a high level starter in the NBA.

Baldwin and Luwawu have plenty of warts too but I think their ceilings are higher as two way role players.

i'm liking baldwin too. he has the length to play good d and already have the 3. how good is his floor general skills tho?

funkykingston · Jun 20, 2016

Big Cuz 15 said:

For a guy who was a late bloomer and came even later to playing PG Baldwin is pretty good in that aspect. He's not an amazing passer in the Kidd/Rondo/Rubio mold where you're wondering how he even saw the passing lane he used but he does seem to make the correct/smart play the vast majority of the time.

The thing that limits Baldwin as a playmaker/floor general is the same thing that limits him getting to the rim and finishing when he gets there - his handle. He's way too upright and lacks shiftiness and advanced dribbles.

ElRey · Jun 20, 2016

funkykingston said:

My concern with Baldwin is his quickness. From watching youtube videos, I'm not sure he has very good quickness for a pg. But I'm not sure he looks that way because of his mediocre handles and lack of moves or if he really is not very quick. I don't see any crossover moves or shake moves in his highlights. I'm afraid he'll turn out to be Ray McCallum with a better jumpshot.

206Fan · Jun 20, 2016

ElRey said:

He has good quickness, but just needs to work on his handling. Ray is interesting, but he's 6'2 with a 6'3.25 wingspan..

Baldwin is 6'3.5 with a 6'11 wingspan. Baldwin is more quicker and athletic than Ray. His playmaking is slightly worse.

I do see the comparison, but Baldwin is more talented in general. He's an elite shooter which would've made Ray A LOT better than he was.

ParniValjak · Jun 21, 2016

At this point, if Dunn is not there (which is highly likely) I am trading the pick for a veteran player addressing a need. It's unlikely pick alone gets us that player but we have other assets to combine with the pick.

Sac.1989 · Jun 21, 2016

Čarolija said:

Agreed. Dunn or trade up for Dunn or trade to fix a need.

Gilles · Jun 21, 2016

ElRey said:

player---------------FGAs--------FTs-------unassisted FG at the rim---% of at the rim shots, that were assisted
Baldwin-18y.o.------221----------104------------------21-----------------------------------.432
Baldwin-19y.o.------309----------188-----------------47-----------------------------------.175
Dunn----20y.o.-----390----------172------------------69-----------------------------------.225
Dunn----21y.o.------411----------190------------------54-----------------------------------.407

While it was a bit of a problem for him as a freshman, sophomore Baldwin had no problem getting to the rim/generating contact. In fact, his team provided barely any help in creating around the rim opportunities, while Dunn was getting set up quite a bit this season. Also look at the progress between seasons! Again bringing Russell with the same disclaimer, that Baldwin is a step slower, Westbrook is a downhill driver, not a shake down artist, and neither was Billups or bulked up version of Kyle Lowry. And Baldwin becomes very quick, the moment he stops worrying about losing the ball: there are plenty highlights, when he sees that the path to the rim is open and just goes for it. The fact, that he can get from the top of the arc to the rim in 3-4 steps, hides his speed.

Now finishing at the rim was a problem, but just from last year we have an example of Stanley Johnson, who was just as bad (in fact given, that Johnson was set up more, attempted less and wings/longer guys naturally have better finishing around the rim, Stanley was worse finisher by a margin), and was averaging .569FG% around the rim as an NBA rookie. What's interesting, with the same shot distribution, basically: .287% of Johnson's shots in college were at the rim, in the pros - .255%.
Chauncey Billups scored .425 on 2-pointers as a sophomore, Deron Williams shot .421 on 2s as a sophomore, which suggests, that they had similar problems at the rim, Kyle Lowry and Brandon Knight were higher at around .460 on 2s, but only Billups was comparable as an attacker/creator of his own offense in the paint with FTs/2ptFGs ratio above 1.0.

EDIT: Remembered another guy, who had randomly low 2ptFG% as a sophomore, and this one wasn't a PG or even a wing. Kawhi was a full-time face-up 4 in the college, and managed same .478 2ptFG% as Stanley Johnson. And that was as a sophomore unlike Stan, so no wonder, Kings passed on this bum.

Now obviously I'm only mentioning positive cases, and I'm absolutely sure, there were multiple guys, who were decent prospects, finished badly at the rim in college and didn't make it in the NBA, but these examples show, that if the rest of the game is there, bad rim finishing numbers in college is not a prohibitive or even limiting problem.

ElRey · Jun 21, 2016

206Fan said:

Gilles said:

player---------------FGAs--------FTs-------unassisted FG at the rim---% of at the rim shots, that were assisted
Baldwin-18y.o.------221----------104------------------21-----------------------------------.432
Baldwin-19y.o.------309----------188-----------------47-----------------------------------.175
Dunn----20y.o.-----390----------172------------------69-----------------------------------.225
Dunn----21y.o.------411----------190------------------54-----------------------------------.407

While it was a bit of a problem for him as a freshman, sophomore Baldwin had no problem getting to the rim/generating contact. In fact, his team provided barely any help in creating around the rim opportunities, while Dunn was getting set up quite a bit this season. Also look at the progress between seasons! Again bringing Russell with the same disclaimer, that Baldwin is a step slower, Westbrook is a downhill driver, not a shake down artist, and neither was Billups or bulked up version of Kyle Lowry. And Baldwin becomes very quick, the moment he stops worrying about losing the ball: there are plenty highlights, when he sees that the path to the rim is open and just goes for it. The fact, that he can get from the top of the arc to the rim in 3-4 steps, hides his speed.

Now finishing at the rim was a problem, but just from last year we have an example of Stanley Johnson, who was just as bad (in fact given, that Johnson was set up more, attempted less and wings/longer guys naturally have better finishing around the rim, Stanley was worse finisher by a margin), and was averaging .569FG% around the rim as an NBA rookie. What's interesting, with the same shot distribution, basically: .287% of Johnson's shots in college were at the rim, in the pros - .255%.
Chauncey Billups scored .425 on 2-pointers as a sophomore, Deron Williams shot .421 on 2s as a sophomore, which suggests, that they had similar problems at the rim, Kyle Lowry and Brandon Knight were higher at around .460 on 2s, but only Billups was comparable as an attacker/creator of his own offense in the paint with FTs/2ptFGs ratio above 1.0.

Well if he could turn into Kyle Lowry or Chancey Billups, I'm not complaining.

biltalent · Jun 21, 2016

Heres an interview with assistant GM Ken Catanella on the draft:

Sounds like we're looking at trades for the pick but are most likely to keep it and go for best player available

206Fan · Jun 21, 2016

Definitely sounds like the Kings are going to pick BPA. We don't know their bigboard, but I have a feeling that if Brown is there at 8, he'll be the pick.

dude12 · Jun 21, 2016

I think of all the assumed top 8 guys, Hield is the one that drops to 8, but I think that assumes another big besides Bender goes in top 7.....which could be Chriss. If none of those guards drop, I think we take Baldwin. I personally would take Brown or Baldwin before Hield.

John Galt · Jun 21, 2016

I had thought I remembered a note of caution from Scot where Hield is concerned, and here it is again (he's answering my question about Hield). And I would take Scot's scouting acumen all the way to the bank, on foot, in the snow.

Scot Pollard ‏@ScotPollard31 5m5 minutes ago
@coyote95667 think jimmer. I don't see him getting his shots off in the NBA. Love his character, work ethic, so hope he proves me wrong.

biltalent · Jun 21, 2016

dude12 said:

I agree, I think Hield either goes at #6 to the Pellicans or he falls to us. I wouldn't be mad at the pick because he is a hard worker and a good guy, but I would rather have Baldwin in that scenario, either at #8 or after a trade down.

Livinthedream · Jun 21, 2016

I have a gut feeling Hield is fools gold.

We've been desperately needing a PG for years, but keep passing on them in the draft. If Dunn isn't there, I'll be hoping Chriss falls to us. Make the front court your strength if you keep striking out with the guards.

SacTownKid · Jun 21, 2016

Scot, Hield is not Jimmer. It's the same thing, Jimmer is a 6' SG, Hield is built like a full sized SG tank. Sure he could bust, but in the NBA what you are from a physical standpoint matters a whole lot.

I can't see Hield being any worse than Nick Young at his rock bottom.

Dime Dropper · Jun 21, 2016

Yeah Hield is definitely not Jimmer, but I have legit concerns with Hield. I don't think he'll get his shot off nearly as easy as he thinks, and I think it's going to be a struggle for him to adjust. He's a legit shooter, and he is much bigger than Jimmer, and a significantly better athlete, so I won't cry if we take him. I just am not convinced yet. I would take Murray over him every day of the week. I would also take Brown over him easily, although I think it might take a few years for that to bu justified.

I definitely think Hield has a place in the league. He's not going to be a bust like Jimmer. I just think there are better options, regardless of what happens ahead of us. I think this draft could be sneaky when we look back at it. The likes of Baldwin/Luwawu/Korkmaz/Poeltl/Jackson are all projected behind Hield and I wouldn't be surprised if all of them have better careers than Hield when all said and done.

I don't hate Hield. I can see the attraction. I'm just not super high on him.

funkykingston · Jun 21, 2016

In order for Hield to succeed in the NBA he's really going to have to hone his off-ball movement. Running/cutting hard off screens, back cuts, running to his spot. I think he could be Redick like but JJ has spent a LOT of time focusing on how to get himself open, something Hield will have to definitely improve on.

hrdboild · Jun 21, 2016

I think the Hield/Jimmer comparison is just as unfair as the Brown/McLemore or Chriss/Robinson comparisons. Those previous draft picks didn't fail here because they lacked NBA talent. I had my reservations about Jimmer pre-draft, but I didn't think he would be out of the league after 4 years. At the very least he should have been able to find a role as a shooter off the bench like Seth did for us this year. And if you look at his shooting percentages, he was converting his chances there at the rate he was expected to, he just couldn't do enough in other areas of the game to stay on the floor. He was a tweener who couldn't play PG in the NBA and wasn't big enough to be a full-time SG. Buddy Hield won't have that problem. He measured out bigger than expected -- he's roughly the same size as Ben but with a little more muscle on his frame. If you want to roll the dice on another shooter, he's a good one to target. I'm not super high on him compared to other prospects -- I currently have him ranked 9th on my board -- but I don't think he would be a bad use of the #8 pick either.

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