Who Would You Start on Opening Day?

[funkykingston]

For the first time in the last 30 years or so the Kings look like they can play defense well enough to compete in the playoffs.

I think ORTG and DRTG have some flaws as metrics, but when comparing Keon and Kevin as starters last season, Ellis was at 122 and 108 respectively while Huerter was at 113 and 118 respectively.

And while it was a down shooting year for Huerter, the fact still remains that that Keon posted a higher TS% (63.1% vs 56.7%) and a higher 3P% (40.4% vs 36.7%) while posting nearly identical rebound and assist numbers in roughly the same mpg. And Keon added 2.3 stocks per game to Huerter's 1.1.

And to The_Jamal's earlier point, Ellis did it on a USG% of just 13.1%. It's not like Huerter has a huge USG% at 17.5%, but with Fox, DeRozan, Sabonis, and Murray all needing touches, a fifth starter that plays elite defense, knocks down open shots, and doesn't need the ball in his hands to be effective is about a perfect a fit as possible.

If Ellis gets the starting nod I think when everyone is healthy we'll see a 9 man rotation of the five starters and a bench of Monk, Huerter, Lyles, and Len.

Given that Monk was the ONLY bench player last year to average over 10 ppg (he had 20+ points in 25 games) I think a healthy Huerter getting minutes at backup SG and SF and ideally sharing court time with Domas will pay huge dividends.

He may not like being demoted from the starting lineup, but after a down year and coming off shoulder surgery it may be a blessing in disguise to let him have the green light to put up points and assists against other team's second units.

 

[twslam07]

I think ORTG and DRTG have some flaws as metrics, but when comparing Keon and Kevin as starters last season, Ellis was at 122 and 108 respectively while Huerter was at 113 and 118 respectively.

And while it was a down shooting year for Huerter, the fact still remains that that Keon posted a higher TS% (63.1% vs 56.7%) and a higher 3P% (40.4% vs 36.7%) while posting nearly identical rebound and assist numbers in roughly the same mpg. And Keon added 2.3 stocks per game to Huerter's 1.1.

And to The_Jamal's earlier point, Ellis did it on a USG% of just 13.1%. It's not like Huerter has a huge USG% at 17.5%, but with Fox, DeRozan, Sabonis, and Murray all needing touches, a fifth starter that plays elite defense, knocks down open shots, and doesn't need the ball in his hands to be effective is about a perfect a fit as possible.

If Ellis gets the starting nod I think when everyone is healthy we'll see a 9 man rotation of the five starters and a bench of Monk, Huerter, Lyles, and Len.

Given that Monk was the ONLY bench player last year to average over 10 ppg (he had 20+ points in 25 games) I think a healthy Huerter getting minutes at backup SG and SF and ideally sharing court time with Domas will pay huge dividends.

He may not like being demoted from the starting lineup, but after a down year and coming off shoulder surgery it may be a blessing in disguise to let him have the green light to put up points and assists against other team's second units.

Even if you were to compare Huerter’s really good season with us (2022-23 season) to Ellis’ 2023-24 season, Ellis still posted a higher TS% (62.7% vs. 61.7%). And if we look at only from 3/12 & on (when Ellis was inserted as a starter and played 27.6 mpg the rest of the way), Ellis’ TS% was 66.5%.

 

[Jdbraver137]

Even if you were to compare Huerter’s really good season with us (2022-23 season) to Ellis’ 2023-24 season, Ellis still posted a higher TS% (62.7% vs. 61.7%). And if we look at only from 3/12 & on (when Ellis was inserted as a starter and played 27.6 mpg the rest of the way), Ellis’ TS% was 66.5%.

Yes but Ellis didn’t shoot of the handoff like Heurter. So that really diminishes your argument.

 

[twslam07]

Yes but Ellis didn’t shoot of the handoff like Heurter. So that really diminishes your argument.

And what is that argument you think I am making?

 

[Jdbraver137]

And what is that argument you think I am making?

That Ellis is the better shooter

 

[twslam07]

That Ellis is the better shooter

Then you would be incorrect.

 

[Jdbraver137]

Then you would be incorrect.

And your point was?

 

[twslam07]

And your point was?

That he was more efficient with the shots he got.

Presumably, Fox, DeRozan, Murray, and Sabonis will be in the starting lineup. Below are their usages from last year:

Fox = 31.0%
DeRozan = 25.8%
Sabonis = 22.2%
Murray = 18.1%

As you can see, that 5th starter is not going to have many opportunities so it’ll be important for that player to be a difference maker on the defensive end (check), efficient in the minimal looks he gets (check), and be a threat from outside & space the floor (check).

 

[Jdbraver137]

That he was more efficient with the shots he got.

Presumably, Fox, DeRozan, Murray, and Sabonis will be in the starting lineup. Below are their usages from last year:

Fox = 31.0%
DeRozan = 25.8%
Sabonis = 22.2%
Murray = 18.1%

As you can see, that 5th starter is not going to have many opportunities so it’ll be important for that player to be a difference maker on the defensive end (check), efficient in the minimal looks he gets (check), and be a threat from outside & space the floor (check).

The problem with that is that Huerter is the only one outside of Keegan that will utilize Sabonis skills with the dribble handoff. Even if Keon is more “efficient” he does utilize the talents to Sabonis presents.

 

[twslam07]

The problem with that is that Huerter is the only one outside of Keegan that will utilize Sabonis skills with the dribble handoff. Even if Keon is more “efficient” he does utilize the talents to Sabonis presents.

That is absolutely not true. Fox & DeRozan will utilize the dribble handoff plenty.

 

[Insomniacal Fan]

That he was more efficient with the shots he got.

Presumably, Fox, DeRozan, Murray, and Sabonis will be in the starting lineup. Below are their usages from last year:

Fox = 31.0%
DeRozan = 25.8%
Sabonis = 22.2%
Murray = 18.1%

As you can see, that 5th starter is not going to have many opportunities so it’ll be important for that player to be a difference maker on the defensive end (check), efficient in the minimal looks he gets (check), and be a threat from outside & space the floor (check).

It's a good point that the 5th option on offense is going to need to be a highly efficient floor spacer. But not all high TS% stats are alike. It could indicate a good match between a player and an offensive role. But I think the Kings wouldn't look at last year's offensive system as particularly impressive. Roles and spots will probably change, and some players are going to be more flexible than others.

 

[funkykingston]

That is absolutely not true. Fox & DeRozan will utilize the dribble handoff plenty.

I'd expect to see plenty of P&Rs with Domas and DeRozan. Assuming Fox can somewhat maintain or even improve on his C&S numbers from last season you'd have three very good shooters for either DDR or Sabonis to kick out to.

Side note, on JUST catch & shoot there's last season, among qualifies players (I said 50 games and at least 2 3PA per game) the Kings top players were:

Ellis - 42.4%
Kyle's - 40.0%
Fox - 39.1%
Barnes - 38.2%
Murray - 37.5%
Monk - 36.9%
Huerter - 34.9%

And last season DeRozan was at 34.5% on C&S three's.

 

[SacTownKid]

The fact is with both Fox and DeRozan the Kings don't need to run as many DHO plays. At least not the way they did in year one with Huerter out there. They won't need to rely on those long, drawn out baseline pin downs to the extent they did and use it more like a set up for pick and roll as they did more and more last season. Keegan as the off ball screener/DHO/spot shooter/system guy is probably enough.

 

[Caccia]

More pick and rolls would help this team a lot. But you would need Monk in the starting lineup to make it happen more consistently, since the point guard, Fox, has never cultivated that strategy.

 

[Telemachus]

More pick and rolls would help this team a lot. But you would need Monk in the starting lineup to make it happen more consistently, since the point guard, Fox, has never cultivated that strategy.

Fox used to run the pick and roll with Holmes all the time.

 

[Insomniacal Fan]

I would assume the Kings will still have DHO as their primary option, they were historically successful with that a couple of seasons ago. We bring in DDR to have a more robust Plan B, to keep Fox from wearing himself out over the course of the season.

 

[Jdbraver137]

I'd expect to see plenty of P&Rs with Domas and DeRozan. Assuming Fox can somewhat maintain or even improve on his C&S numbers from last season you'd have three very good shooters for either DDR or Sabonis to kick out to.

Side note, on JUST catch & shoot there's last season, among qualifies players (I said 50 games and at least 2 3PA per game) the Kings top players were:

Ellis - 42.4%
Kyle's - 40.0%
Fox - 39.1%
Barnes - 38.2%
Murray - 37.5%
Monk - 36.9%
Huerter - 34.9%

And last season DeRozan was at 34.5% on C&S three's.

Huerter was playing with one shoulder

 

[24 rick barry]

As odd as it might sound, I think Monk is going to have to really work hard and produce a lot, in order to consistently be the closer over Keon.

Like you said, the team defense was so much better with him in there, that it can't be ignored late in games....just like it can't to start the game. Adding Derozan, who will obviously close games, could make it more of a squeeze to get Monk in there with him all the time.

In my humble opinion, this is an ill-advised take. Malik Monk signed a 4 year , $77,975,308 contract with the Sacramento Kings, including $77,975,308 guaranteed, and an average annual salary of $19,493,827. Maybe you might want to re-think this one.

 

[Jdbraver137]

In my humble opinion, this is an ill-advised take. Malik Monk signed a 4 year , $77,975,308 contract with the Sacramento Kings, including $77,975,308 guaranteed, and an average annual salary of $19,493,827. Maybe you might want to re-think this one.

I think he forget how good Monk is.

 

[funkykingston]

Huerter was playing with one shoulder

Here was Huerter's quote about his shoulder and the decision to have surgery:

"It’s been an issue that I’ve had for a couple of years now,” Kevin Huerter said. “Nothing that was significant enough for me to have to fix it and get surgery on something that I’ve played with and felt like I could get back to 100 percent. I haven’t had issues with it in a couple of years. This one, most recent, I would call it episode, the injury became more significant, and the decision became playing through the injury, obviously, or completely fixing with surgery, and where it was currently at, it could be 100 percent fixed with surgery.”

I'd read into that that his shoulder wasn't actually bothering him last season until the injury against the Grizzles. But it's likely that previous wear and tear is part of why he ended up with a dislocated shoulder and labral tear on a play that didn't seem that severe on first glance.

But the point of my post was to highlight how good Keon is as a catch and shoot option, not to put down Huerter. Kevin had a down year shooting for sure, but I expect him (after he knocks off the rust) to return to form or better with a fully healthy shoulder. For the record, Huerter shot 39.1% on catch and shoot threes for the 22-23 season

 

[funkykingston]

In my humble opinion, this is an ill-advised take. Malik Monk signed a 4 year , $77,975,308 contract with the Sacramento Kings, including $77,975,308 guaranteed, and an average annual salary of $19,493,827. Maybe you might want to re-think this one.

I think the rotation will be similar to the end of last season with Ellis starting and Monk closing out games. Malik, De'Aaron and DeMar are all clutch players that will be tough to stop in the 4th quarter.

If Huerter is coming off the bench I'd imagine there will also be games where he has the hot hand and Brown has him in to finish games, especially if someone else (Murray, DDR, Fox, Monk) is having a rough shooting night.

 

[ShastaKingsFan]

I think the rotation will be similar to the end of last season with Ellis starting and Monk closing out games. Malik, De'Aaron and DeMar are all clutch players that will be tough to stop in the 4th quarter.

If Huerter is coming off the bench I'd imagine there will also be games where he has the hot hand and Brown has him in to finish games, especially if someone else (Murray, DDR, Fox, Monk) is having a rough shooting night.

The question in my mind is, will Monk's offense with this new lineup be more valuable than Keon's defense in most close games? With Derozan and Fox as two of the top 4th quarter clutch guys in the league, I'm not sure that the answer is yes.

I guess the simple answer is that they're paying him a lot, so if he doesn't start, then he has to close. We'll see if that plays out as the best way to win the most games and try to become a contender

 

[funkykingston]

The question in my mind is, will Monk's offense with this new lineup be more valuable than Keon's defense in most close games? With Derozan and Fox as two of the top 4th quarter clutch guys in the league, I'm not sure that the answer is yes.

I guess the simple answer is that they're paying him a lot, so if he doesn't start, then he has to close. We'll see if that plays out as the best way to win the most games and try to become a contender

What it may very simply mean is that Brown can have the luxury of rolling with the hot hand. When Malik is having a good night scoring and playmaking, you definitely finish games with him. If he's struggling and say, Huerter is on fire, then maybe he closes that night.

I think most nights the closing lineup WILL be Fox, Monk, DeRozan, Murray, and Sabonis just because it gives you so much offensive flexibility and clutch scoring along with elite playmaking.

But a significantly stronger 9 man rotation means it doesn't HAVE to be.

 

[admira1]

Guess we have MB's vote now too:
https://www.si.com/nba/kings/sacram...c-mike-brown-announces-change-starting-lineup

 

[Jdbraver137]

We need more shooting in the starting lineup, so this should help.