ockingsfan
Starter
Is there a source that Porter is returning to school?
Who do you want, if the Kings pick #6 to #8 overall in the draft?
- Thread starter ockingsfan
- Start date
- Status
Is there a source that Porter is returning to school?
sactowndog
All-Star
Rumors in NBA circles. Nothing officially announced
Sactown ExPat
Starter
Not a great scenario for us. I’d probably go with Knox in that spot. Carter would be a good, safe pick too.
kingsfan1984
Starter
Think id pick Carter then look to trade WCS for one of the SFs such as Knox or a Bridges....then we sign Hezonja or Gordon. Gordan becomes Bogs new favorite target and also works his magic on him like he has Buddy turning Gordon into a superstar
Fox/Mason
Bogs/Buddy/Temple
Gordon/Knox (or Bridges) /Jackson
SKal/Carter
Giles/KK/Zbo
Then we roll into the playoffs and steamroll the league
Folsomkingsfan
Starter
It could be worse. His two best skills are scoring and rebounding. If he becomes a better defender than we have an ideal long term SF.
He rebounds at the same rate as Buddy Hield. I wouldn't say it's a strength at this point.
sactowndog
All-Star
Looking at the remaining games and the Kings refusal to hold out players like Bogdan, I’m thinking 9-10 is more likely. We have games against Atlanta, Memphis, Dallas and a resting Houston at the end of the year. The Knicks only play Orlando. Assuming we win ours and the Knicks win against Orlando we will have spectacularly fallen from the first overall pick to a tie for 8 pre-lottery in 6 weeks. Assume 1 team jumps us and we are 9-10 depending on a coin flip.
ockingsfan
Starter
Kevin Knox is shooting up my draft wish list.
On last nights sweet sixteen game, Knox had a very good second half. On air, Chris Webber was complimenting his footwork as NBA ready. He had a really nice side step that juked his defender out and he hit a big 3 pointer in the final minutes. Webber also said Knox had an NBA ready offensive game and silky mid range game. I think he is right.
I think Knox would be my pick at 6-8. He has NBA SF size and very, very high upside. As some other people have mentioned, I like Mikal Bridges too, but he does look a little too slight to play SF full time in the NBA.
On last nights sweet sixteen game, Knox had a very good second half. On air, Chris Webber was complimenting his footwork as NBA ready. He had a really nice side step that juked his defender out and he hit a big 3 pointer in the final minutes. Webber also said Knox had an NBA ready offensive game and silky mid range game. I think he is right.
I think Knox would be my pick at 6-8. He has NBA SF size and very, very high upside. As some other people have mentioned, I like Mikal Bridges too, but he does look a little too slight to play SF full time in the NBA.
The good news is it's impossible for us to end up 10 at this point with the Hornets like 6 games up on the current 9th team. So unless we're jumped by a 10-14 team, we'll be top 9
sactowndog
All-Star
Correct but the chances of a later lottery team landing somewhere in the top 3 is not negligible.
ockingsfan
Starter
There would be a greater chance that the Kings jump into the top 3, than a team behind them in the lottery jumping into the top 3.
sactowndog
All-Star
You would be incorrect.
http://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds
6.3% chance of 1 of the top spots
12.5% chance of falling 1 or more spots.
sactowndog
All-Star
More depressing then that. Mikal Bridges and Young are both likely gone.
Miles Bridges, Sexton, Alexander, and Knox are your likely choices at 9/10
Folsomkingsfan
Starter
Not too much we can do about. it Teams are trotting out community college rosters. Even if Joerger sat vets for some of our wins, which he absolutely should have, there was very little chance of us ending up top 4-5.
SacTownKid
Hall of Famer
I'd say Miles but Knox and Mikal Bridges would be excellent choices. I like Carter and Jackson but with Giles coming along next season I think it's too many middle of the road bigs.
ockingsfan
Starter
The 12.5% chance would be for all the teams behind the Kings combined (teams #9 -14).
Any teams with a better record than the Kings would have a lower indiviual chance of getting a top 3 pick than the Kings.
If the Kings are 8 or 9 pre-lotto, the chances of any one team jumping the Kings would be lower than the Kings 6.3% chance of getting a top 3 pick.
The likelihood that 2 or more of those teams #10-14 all jumping the Kings is pretty astronomical.
Point being, that the Kings would have a greater individual chance of jumping into the top 3 than any team that had a better record than them pre lotto.
Last edited:
Sac.1989
Starter
#MediocrityForever
sactowndog
All-Star
Good lord, did you look at the base odds for teams in the 9 spot? First off the odds of sliding if you are 9 into the 10 spot is the combined odds of all the teams behind you. I posted the link so you don’t even have to do math. The team in the 9th spot (assuming no ties) odds are12.2% (10), .4%(11), negligible 12.
If the Kings win against Memphis, Phoenix, Dallas and Houston last game they are likely in the 9 spot.
Last edited:
ockingsfan
Starter
I understand that the combined odds are higher for all those 5 teams combined (#10-14).
If we are at #9, I wouldn't be all that concerned about teams #10-14 jumping us, since their individual odds of doing so is slimmer than our chance of getting a top 3 pick, which is pretty slim to begin with.
But, if the lottery balls fall that way, then so be it, you can't control that.
You can't look at each team individually. You have to combine all their odds because that equals the odds of the Kings dropping down.
If they wind up 9th, the odds for the Kings to stay where they're at is 81.3%
Odds to move down to 10th are 12.2%
Odds to move up into the top 3 are 6.1%
Odds to move down to 11th are .4%
ockingsfan
Starter
If we wind up at #8 with a 87.5% chance of staying at #8 or moving higher and just a 12.5% chance of dropping a spot, I'm not going to sit there and fret over it.
The point being that the overwhelming odds is that we stay where we are.
Why sit there and fret over something you can't control for the next 2 months?
Last edited:
sactowndog
All-Star
I don’t know why you keeping referring to individual team odds? They don’t matter, only the total number of balls that are behind you.
ockingsfan
Starter
Please see above response:
If we wind up at #8 with a 87.5% chance of staying at #8 or moving higher and just a 12.5% chance of dropping a spot, I'm not going to sit there and fret over it.
The point being that the overwhelming odds is that we stay where we are.
Why sit there and fret over something you can't control for the next 2 months?
Also, from what I understand of the NBA Lotto, it is a combination of balls and their sequence of balls that win you the lottery, like the California Lottery. It is not just one ball bouncing your way to get the top pick.
sactowndog
All-Star
Dude just because we are trying to explain the fundamentals of how the odds work doesn’t mean we are fretting. We said 9/10 because both of those spots have double digit odds of being true.
The lottery works as follows: Each team has X number of spots depending how their team finishes.
14 numbered table tennis balls are used. Then, a four-number combination from the 14 balls is drawn to determine the lottery winner. Prior to the draft, the NBA assigns 1,000 possible combinations to the non-playoff teams (the 11-12-13-14 combination is ignored and redrawn). The process was then repeated to determine the second and third pick.
Last edited:
I'm not fretting. You just said something that was incorrect and we were trying to explain that the odds of dropping aren't dependent on the individual teams odds, but the collective odds of the teams below them as a whole.
ockingsfan
Starter
I think Trae Young will be appealing to both Orlando and Phoenix. He should be gone if the Kings are picking #6-8 or later.
Last edited:
upinsmoke
All-Star
How do you figure Phoenix would pick Young? Unless they totally flip the bird to the defensive end. Orlando is my money ball for Young they seem to be the most likely team to reach.
- Status
