What's your pick today (June 13, 2018)?
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Or the Kings.
With perfect hindsight the right play would have been to make the Blazers deal and take Mitchell at 5, Anunoby or Collins at 15 and Kuzma at 20.
Can you imagine how badly the media would have crucified Vlade and the front office if they actually made those picks though? Lots of post draft "grades" of D- and F.
Just another reminder of how inexact a science the NBA draft is.
With perfect hindsight the right play would have been to make the Blazers deal and take Mitchell at 5, Anunoby or Collins at 15 and Kuzma at 20.
Can you imagine how badly the media would have crucified Vlade and the front office if they actually made those picks though? Lots of post draft "grades" of D- and F.
Just another reminder of how inexact a science the NBA draft is.
It's possible Mitchell benefited from playing on a winning team.
It's possible in 3-5 years nobody will question picking Fox. It's one of those things with high draft picks, nobody typically picks them based on what they are going to provide their rookie season. It's all potential. Even with Doncic where a lot of people assume you're getting a good look at the finished project seem to forget how vastly different a body changes between 19 and 24 and also how Euros and USA value different things in their athletes.
It's possible in 3-5 years nobody will question picking Fox. It's one of those things with high draft picks, nobody typically picks them based on what they are going to provide their rookie season. It's all potential. Even with Doncic where a lot of people assume you're getting a good look at the finished project seem to forget how vastly different a body changes between 19 and 24 and also how Euros and USA value different things in their athletes.
Luka because of the rare combination of intangibles. He has incredible court vision and is a very willing passer along with a high basketball IQ and heart/desire to win. He will make his teammates better. I question whether guys like Bagley or Porter have the ability to make their teammates better. Even if Bagley plays really well and puts up 20/10 type numbers in a couple years, will guys like Buddy and Giles play better just by playing with Bagley? I doubt it.
With Luka I do think think there is real concern that he doesn't develop into a star. It may be more likely he just becomes the ultimate role-player.......but even if that is the case guys like Fox, Giles, WCS, and Buddy will benefit. If a guy like Fox or Giles becomes a star in part because their playing with Luka that's almost as good as Luka becoming a star himself.
With Luka I do think think there is real concern that he doesn't develop into a star. It may be more likely he just becomes the ultimate role-player.......but even if that is the case guys like Fox, Giles, WCS, and Buddy will benefit. If a guy like Fox or Giles becomes a star in part because their playing with Luka that's almost as good as Luka becoming a star himself.
I find myself wanting anyone but Luka at this point lol. I don't know if it's because of the fear of adding another Bogdan to this team and calling it good for two years or if it's because since I'm not one hundred percent sold on Luka I've ended up arguing about his deficiencies with others on this site a lot.
If he ends up being Bogdan 2.0 that would be a rough team to try to get excited about with no pick next season. That's a 30 win club with not much hope for the future outside of fox becoming John Wall or something like that. I want a guy with extraordinary upside at #2 that also comes in and plays great right away. Ayton is obviously that guy but since he'll be gone I think jjj is that guy too. Doesn't look like we're really considering jjj or bamba though so that leaves us with Bagley or Porter. I don't love either of these guys either but at least there's upside there. If Bagley is a new version of Amare Stoudemire and fox and hield continue to progress that's something to be excited about. If Porter is a new tmac that could be huge too. All in all though I'm not really excited about any of the three guys we're rumored to be choosing between.
Jjj or bamba over any of these three for me.
If he ends up being Bogdan 2.0 that would be a rough team to try to get excited about with no pick next season. That's a 30 win club with not much hope for the future outside of fox becoming John Wall or something like that. I want a guy with extraordinary upside at #2 that also comes in and plays great right away. Ayton is obviously that guy but since he'll be gone I think jjj is that guy too. Doesn't look like we're really considering jjj or bamba though so that leaves us with Bagley or Porter. I don't love either of these guys either but at least there's upside there. If Bagley is a new version of Amare Stoudemire and fox and hield continue to progress that's something to be excited about. If Porter is a new tmac that could be huge too. All in all though I'm not really excited about any of the three guys we're rumored to be choosing between.
Jjj or bamba over any of these three for me.
I don’t know who I would pick but I suspect this year will be studied by draft geeks for years to come.
Think length is a critical factor: see Bamba the longest player ever.
Think athleticism matters: see Bagley with an incredible first step and second jump.
Think skill and IQ matters: see Doncic who may be among the highest IQ, skilled players ever.
Think having a prototype NBA body: see DeAndre Ayton built like a basketball god.
All these players have a capability to an extreme and glaring gaps in other areas. If you built a set of hypothesis athletes to test what really matters you would struggle to have more perfect test cases.
Think length is a critical factor: see Bamba the longest player ever.
Think athleticism matters: see Bagley with an incredible first step and second jump.
Think skill and IQ matters: see Doncic who may be among the highest IQ, skilled players ever.
Think having a prototype NBA body: see DeAndre Ayton built like a basketball god.
All these players have a capability to an extreme and glaring gaps in other areas. If you built a set of hypothesis athletes to test what really matters you would struggle to have more perfect test cases.
This pretty much sums the conundrum up. One thing is for sure not all of these players are going to be stars. Among the Top-7 odds are a couple develop into all-stars or even superstars, a couple are busts, and a couple are somewhere in-between. Odds are also that one or two guys after the Top-7 will also become all-stars and maybe one even exceeds all projected ceilings and becomes a franchise player.
What makes these draft's so interesting and impossible to predict for anybody is that what makes players successful is constantly evolving as well in terms of environmental factors and nature vs. nurture type elements in play. Style of play within the league and their own team both make a difference. Does the coach fit and/or adapt to their playing style and personality? Are they playing with teammates who will accelerate or inhibit their growth?
We know we can measure: Size, Strength, Speed, Leaping Ability, Wingspan, Injury History, etc.
We think we can measure: General intelligence, Basketball IQ, Character, Toughness, Work Ethic, etc.
We wish we could measure: Heart, Ability to Stay Cool Under Pressure on and off court
Things we can't account for: Career altering injuries and luck
What makes these draft's so interesting and impossible to predict for anybody is that what makes players successful is constantly evolving as well in terms of environmental factors and nature vs. nurture type elements in play. Style of play within the league and their own team both make a difference. Does the coach fit and/or adapt to their playing style and personality? Are they playing with teammates who will accelerate or inhibit their growth?
We know we can measure: Size, Strength, Speed, Leaping Ability, Wingspan, Injury History, etc.
We think we can measure: General intelligence, Basketball IQ, Character, Toughness, Work Ethic, etc.
We wish we could measure: Heart, Ability to Stay Cool Under Pressure on and off court
Things we can't account for: Career altering injuries and luck
I think Ayton, Bagley, and Doncic all have star potential and should be our only picks.
Bagley with a jumpshot is a 20-10 guy to me easily and he has that “IT” factor. However he has to step up defensively he doesn’t need to be a rim protector but he has no choice but to be a good defender on ther perimeter. Has to be average at least in pick and roll and be good when he switches out there. If this doesn’t happen he’ll be a liability like KAT defensively.
Y’all know how I feel about Doncic
Bagley with a jumpshot is a 20-10 guy to me easily and he has that “IT” factor. However he has to step up defensively he doesn’t need to be a rim protector but he has no choice but to be a good defender on ther perimeter. Has to be average at least in pick and roll and be good when he switches out there. If this doesn’t happen he’ll be a liability like KAT defensively.
Y’all know how I feel about Doncic
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