What's your pick today (June 13, 2018)?
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This is where I’m at. I think Luka makes more sense for us (and and the current NBA), but I wouldn’t be upset at all with Bagley. Both seem like they have a never die attitude that will be a culture changer. If we pass on Luka I got to believe there is a good reason. If there is and prospect I trust Vlade’s opinion on its Luka.
I could kindof see it but this is not encouraging...
We've all seen the game tape. "I think overall I'm a great defensive player" is not going to fly for me. If he showed some awareness of what he needs to work on that would be one thing but he's got nothing but cliches here. I realize he's just a kid but there are other 19 year olds going into the draft who are capable of speaking quite eloquently about the nuances of the game. The guy he's compared to most often is Chris Bosh but Bosh averaged nearly 3 times as many blocks per 40 in his one year at Georgia Tech and shot 48% (not a typo!) from three. We don't even have any official measurements for Bagley because he skipped the combine testing. None of this is damning, but I'm looking for any detail I can find and things are stacking up against Bagley at this point.
I'm just saying there are warning signs here. I ignored those same warning signs with Derrick Williams (also a #2 pick) and Thomas Robinson (projected that high on a lot of pre-draft mocks) -- the low block, steal, and assist rates, sky high usage rates because all they do is finish possessions, the eye-popping athleticism which compensated for their somewhat limited perimeter skillset at the college level. Robinson was still a rebounding monster in the pros but he was so bad at everything else that he saw less and less floor time. Williams never could figure out if he was a SF or PF and just generally showed no assertiveness about staking his claim as a player in the league. Also... that dude shot 57% on three pointers (also not a typo!) his second year at Arizona and his career 3pt shooting percentage in the NBA as of today is 30% -- what the hell DWill? Do you just never practice or something?
Granted, Bagley is a couple years younger than they were in their draft years which is a not insignificant detail. And he was statistically dominant at a much younger age which speaks well of his talent level. But it's not lost on me that I thought Robinson and Williams both had star potential and they showed me close to nothing in the NBA and both my eye test and the stats both peg Bagley as closer to those guys than Chris Bosh. He scares the crap out of me, in other words. I was high on him coming out of High School so I gave him a pass myself on most of his deficiencies throughout the year but as I've gone back and reviewed some of that tape, I don't see what his go-to move is. If your calling card is "more athletic than the average 6'10" guy but you don't have face up skills other than straight line drives, you're not good at creating for others, and your jumper is a work in progress -- doesn't that just make you the offensive Yin to Cauley-Stein's defensive Yang? Sure I can see him diving to the hoop to convert Fox and Bogdanovic assists 5 or 6 times a game but is that really a guy we need to take #2 in a stacked draft? I don't think so.
We've all seen the game tape. "I think overall I'm a great defensive player" is not going to fly for me. If he showed some awareness of what he needs to work on that would be one thing but he's got nothing but cliches here. I realize he's just a kid but there are other 19 year olds going into the draft who are capable of speaking quite eloquently about the nuances of the game. The guy he's compared to most often is Chris Bosh but Bosh averaged nearly 3 times as many blocks per 40 in his one year at Georgia Tech and shot 48% (not a typo!) from three. We don't even have any official measurements for Bagley because he skipped the combine testing. None of this is damning, but I'm looking for any detail I can find and things are stacking up against Bagley at this point.
I'm just saying there are warning signs here. I ignored those same warning signs with Derrick Williams (also a #2 pick) and Thomas Robinson (projected that high on a lot of pre-draft mocks) -- the low block, steal, and assist rates, sky high usage rates because all they do is finish possessions, the eye-popping athleticism which compensated for their somewhat limited perimeter skillset at the college level. Robinson was still a rebounding monster in the pros but he was so bad at everything else that he saw less and less floor time. Williams never could figure out if he was a SF or PF and just generally showed no assertiveness about staking his claim as a player in the league. Also... that dude shot 57% on three pointers (also not a typo!) his second year at Arizona and his career 3pt shooting percentage in the NBA as of today is 30% -- what the hell DWill? Do you just never practice or something?
Granted, Bagley is a couple years younger than they were in their draft years which is a not insignificant detail. And he was statistically dominant at a much younger age which speaks well of his talent level. But it's not lost on me that I thought Robinson and Williams both had star potential and they showed me close to nothing in the NBA and both my eye test and the stats both peg Bagley as closer to those guys than Chris Bosh. He scares the crap out of me, in other words. I was high on him coming out of High School so I gave him a pass myself on most of his deficiencies throughout the year but as I've gone back and reviewed some of that tape, I don't see what his go-to move is. If your calling card is "more athletic than the average 6'10" guy but you don't have face up skills other than straight line drives, you're not good at creating for others, and your jumper is a work in progress -- doesn't that just make you the offensive Yin to Cauley-Stein's defensive Yang? Sure I can see him diving to the hoop to convert Fox and Bogdanovic assists 5 or 6 times a game but is that really a guy we need to take #2 in a stacked draft? I don't think so.
I voted Luka this time around. Vlade knows this kid and for some reason is not sold on him. You would think that he would want him in the worst way but I think Vlade and Vivek don't want the safe pick. they want to go for the highest ceiling. I think MPJ has allstar written all over him. BUT reading that he cancelled Friday would make me very nervous. I think Bagley is going to be a bust. If i make the decisions for the Kings and it is my team my board is this
1) Ayton- Question marks about desire
2) Doncic- Questions about his ceiling
3) JJJ- The safest pic but not a high ceiling
4) MPJ- Back and what is he trying to hide
5) Bamba- Awful raw
I would not take Bagley and if he is the pick I hope I am wrong about him being a bust
1) Ayton- Question marks about desire
2) Doncic- Questions about his ceiling
3) JJJ- The safest pic but not a high ceiling
4) MPJ- Back and what is he trying to hide
5) Bamba- Awful raw
I would not take Bagley and if he is the pick I hope I am wrong about him being a bust
I'd take Bagley. Sure he's not the ideal fit next to Willie but he's a potential 20 a night guy, he's got an elite motor and athleticism, and has a well rounded skill set. Obviously rim protection and perhaps rebounding at PF and C with Bagley and Willie is a potential issue but that wouldn't stop me selecting Bagley. He's got tremendous upside and a good floor as well.
Another view of the draft, using the author's "draft system". I don't agree with all of his conclusions but some good info here:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ca...smilodon-2-0-the-top-ten-doncic-jackson-bamba
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ca...smilodon-2-0-the-top-ten-doncic-jackson-bamba
I agree a lot with this. I dont think he will bust like Trob/Williams. But still. What I come back to the most is that we actually could have had John Collins if we wanted a big like that last year at #15. They are super similar. Great finishers, developing jumper, but non-creators with defensive questions. To be fair, Bagley has a higher chance to become a creator than Collins and is younger, but at #2 I need more.
Also, I dont trust the Kings FO to put players in a position to succeed. Bagley especially needs specific guys next to him to return ++value and I have seen nothing yet from this FO and coaching staff suggesting they can do that.
Also, I dont trust the Kings FO to put players in a position to succeed. Bagley especially needs specific guys next to him to return ++value and I have seen nothing yet from this FO and coaching staff suggesting they can do that.
I am still split between Doncic and Bagley. I think that Bagley has the higher ceiling (ultimately in a few years), but Doncic is a safer bet for right now. If it's Doncic, then we still don't have a solid PF (yet), and if it's Bagley, then our SF is a weak position (for now). Either way, I think either a FA or a trade will be coming (almost mandatory). Can't wait for the draft to be over and get to Summer League and see what we've got.
Go Kings !!!
Go Kings !!!
Don't be fooled by a guy with a physical profile. Thats a start. JJJ production was crap. I kind of put MIkail Bridges in the same category. He has the physical profile but can't get dribble the ball more once or twice before getting thoroughly flummoxed. Ooooh, the wingspan! Long arms are great but when you are afraid to put the ball on the floor against defenders and can't create separation, then you are as likely to become Wes Johnson as Otto Porter. Back to JJJ, he is so deliberate, plodding and mechanical, almost like he took up the game only because he was tall. I see valuable role player there not a star.
Luka looks tired to me. His older clips are more impressive than his latest. He has played 70 games since August. But he should recover quickly at his age and the slow pace teams play there. Its not like they are playing break neck speed in Real Madrid! I don't know what to make of it . I can tell you I like the Luka from six months ago than the Luka I have seen this month. Its important since gauging his level of athleticism correlates to how big of a star he may or may not become. There's a waning confidence I have with the athleticism I have seen lately, but he could just need a few weeks off mentally and physically to get his bounce back.
There's a reason why NBA rookies hit a wall midway through the season. Going from 1 or 2 games a week and 30 games total to back to backs and 82 games takes a toll. Luka is still a 19 year old kid that has been asked to play more high level games than anyone else his age.
I've seen the same thing with Luka and while the pace may be lower, he takes a lot of physical play that would be whistled as fouls in the NBA.
I lean towards him looking better once he's got his legs back under him and is rested.
I've seen the same thing with Luka and while the pace may be lower, he takes a lot of physical play that would be whistled as fouls in the NBA.
I lean towards him looking better once he's got his legs back under him and is rested.
This is where the Kings have be careful falling into the trap of recency and confirmation bias. The game Vlade and Vivek showed up to was not that impressive. If they put undue weight on that game, and conclude "we traveled all this way for that?" some legitimate concerns become overblown (confirmation bias), and you start chasing a new shiny object, i.e. MPJ. There are legitimate concerns and exaggerated ones. I don't know if our front office knows the difference. Like I said, there are enough smart minds in the front office to get this right. I want to believe they will. When it comes time to pull the trigger the man making this decision is highly susceptible to blunder. This is just a fact. Weighing conflicting and confirming indicators, going with your gut (a summation of tangible and intangible information) requires high level cognitive functioning. This is more than our GM is capable of. He needs help. If he gets it, and leans on it, we're good. If he gets it, and ignores it, we're screwed.
Vlade already knows if he is or isn't taking Luka, this is all just smoke. Nothing is going to change his mind this late in the game. So if he isn't, then all of this jostling makes sense to get a little value. If he's trying to get a little cute by trading down a few spots and hoping for Luka then that is just plain глупо.
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