What will the starting lineup look like when Bagley returns from injury?

[Peja]

The big question here is - are we going to give up on our PO hopes and continue developing Bagley, Holmes and other guys this season or we're going to shoot for that 8th spot?

If we're shooting to enter the playoffs, I think this would be a scenario:

• Holmes and Bjelica remain starters, Bagley gets up to 30 minutes off the bench till All Star
• If Bagley proves to be able to play at C, Bjelica and him would start games after All Star
• If Bagley can't play at C, both him and Bjelica might start at 4 depending on the matchup and individual shape at that moment

To conclude, Bagley is projected to be a star of the franchise - therefore, he's not going to spend much time outside of the starting unit, even though Kings as a team might have a higher chance of reaching playoffs with him coming off the bench.

 

[kb02]

Within a few games of his return, Bagley will start in place of Bjelly. Bjelley can stretch the floor more consistently, but Bagley can hit the 3 as well. Plus Bagley can face up n drive, which is pretty much non existent in Bjelly’s game.

Beyond fit n production, you don’t publicly commit to Bags as a franchise cornerstone and not play him as a starter. He needs the reps.

 

[jellyfish]

There is no way he should take any playing time from Bjelly/Holmes only Dedmons, Bagley will ruin the ball movement while putting up empty stats the exact opposite of the winning basketball Bjelly/Holmes play.

 

[rosa u podne]

Plus Bagley can face up n drive, which is pretty much non existent in Bjelly’s game.

Regardless of the opinion about who should start, we are obviously not watching the same games. The truth is that Bjelly passes the ball to an open teammate much more often than he drives. IMO, that is a good habit and right now he works as a secondary playmaker.

 

[jcassio]

How many more games to play before Bags will probably be ready for action?
What will our record be at that point?
If Beli and Holmes continue to play well, we may need to remove both to the 2nd unit, along with Bogi, so we have the ability to get back into games or stretch the lead against other teams with less depth.
In reality, Bags has the key to the car. When he’s able to play, he returns as a starter. At most there will be a 1-game transition.

 

[dude12]

You get Bagley in the lineup as soon as you can. Figure out the fit next to him and not Holmes or Bjeli or Dedmon or whomever. This is your guy, play him.

 

[sactowndog]

when did they ever share the floor?

Granted it was not a lot (58 mins) but that could be because it had a -2 net rating.

 

[sactowndog]

You get Bagley in the lineup as soon as you can. Figure out the fit next to him and not Holmes or Bjeli or Dedmon or whomever. This is your guy, play him.

I think this point is probably true but means you likely return Dedmon also. Bags isn’t big enough to play with Bjeli and doesn’t have the perimeter game to play with Holmes. Giles may be a wild card but playing him a bunch sets him up for another team to grab him.

Given the lack of playmaking in that first group , the team could well get worse. Justified or not it could fuel the Bagley is an empty stats guy narrative.

 

[John Galt]

Granted it was not a lot (58 mins) but that could be because it had a -2 net rating.

I'm confused. I thought Bagley got hurt at the end of the first game. 28 minutes. Holmes played 17 in that game. And if they played together in the first game (couldn't have been more than 17 minutes and probably less) and had a -2, then that was probably better than par for the day given that we got smoked that game?
I'm sure you're right based x and o's game theory or something, but it doesn't seem there is overwhelming "no duh" evidence that Holmes and Bagley can't be effective in the same lineup.

 

[kb02]

Regardless of the opinion about who should start, we are obviously not watching the same games. The truth is that Bjelly passes the ball to an open teammate much more often than he drives. IMO, that is a good habit and right now he works as a secondary playmaker.

Having Bjelly as a secondary playmaker is fair. I've always been of the opinion that looking to distribute the ball to teammates from a stationary position is a learned skill. Some players have it innately, like Giles, while it takes reps for others. Just because Bags first inclination is to shoot or drive, it doesn't mean he can't develop that skill. Hence why he needs the reps. Once he does develop more of a willingness to move the ball, the offense opens up 2x. He can pass while stationary plus drive and score or drive and dish. Bjelly doesn't have the skill set to drive, which provides a ceiling on the offense. Take the bumps now. By the end of the year, the secondary distribution margin between Bags and Bjelly will be much, much smaller.

 

[rosa u podne]

Having Bjelly as a secondary playmaker is fair. I've always been of the opinion that looking to distribute the ball to teammates from a stationary position is a learned skill. Some players have it innately, like Giles, while it takes reps for others. Just because Bags first inclination is to shoot or drive, it doesn't mean he can't develop that skill. Hence why he needs the reps. Once he does develop more of a willingness to move the ball, the offense opens up 2x. He can pass while stationary plus drive and score or drive and dish. Bjelly doesn't have the skill set to drive, which provides a ceiling on the offense. Take the bumps now. By the end of the year, the secondary distribution margin between Bags and Bjelly will be much, much smaller.

My initial point is that he does have skills to drive and he occasionally does it (see the last two actions in the video). He just chooses to pass when it is a better option. Bagley being younger and faster can drive and score better, but it is not true that face up and drive is non-existent for Bjelica. Actually, what Bjelica lacks are back to the basket skills. He could ask the Kings GM to teach him a few moves. That could prolong his career as he is slowed down by age and mileage.

The second point: If the kings recover from the bad start and improve enough to contend for PO spot while Bagley is out, it could be counterproductive to let him learn when to pass and how to play team defense with the starting unit.

 

[Kingster]

How many more games to play before Bags will probably be ready for action?
What will our record be at that point?
If Beli and Holmes continue to play well, we may need to remove both to the 2nd unit, along with Bogi, so we have the ability to get back into games or stretch the lead against other teams with less depth.
In reality, Bags has the key to the car. When he’s able to play, he returns as a starter. At most there will be a 1-game transition.

Good questions. They said he'll be out 4-6 weeks. At the 20 game mark (against Portland) is on December 4. So figure sometime between the 20-25 game mark he comes back. Interestingly, the 20 game mark is also where many would expect the Kings' offense and defense to fully get in synch. It's fairly likely that Bagley will be coming back to a team that has some pretty good chemistry with the existing lineup. Somebody is going to be sacrificing some minutes. Somebody is probably going to a different role. This is where the character of your team is important, because somebody or somebodies are going to have to give up something for the team.

 

[burekijogurt]

I'm confused. I thought Bagley got hurt at the end of the first game. 28 minutes. Holmes played 17 in that game. And if they played together in the first game (couldn't have been more than 17 minutes and probably less) and had a -2, then that was probably better than par for the day given that we got smoked that game?
I'm sure you're right based x and o's game theory or something, but it doesn't seem there is overwhelming "no duh" evidence that Holmes and Bagley can't be effective in the same lineup.

I think @sactowndog is giving numbers for WCS and Bagley and is extrapolating that because Rachaun's game is similar to.that of WCS (offensively) they would have similar spacing issues.

for what its worth, I also understood your initial question about when they shared the floor to pertain to WCS and Bagley

 

[kb02]

My initial point is that he does have skills to drive and he occasionally does it (see the last two actions in the video). He just chooses to pass when it is a better option. Bagley being younger and faster can drive and score better, but it is not true that face up and drive is non-existent for Bjelica. Actually, what Bjelica lacks are back to the basket skills. He could ask the Kings GM to teach him a few moves. That could prolong his career as he is slowed down by age and mileage.

The second point: If the kings recover from the bad start and improve enough to contend for PO spot while Bagley is out, it could be counterproductive to let him learn when to pass and how to play team defense with the starting unit.

Understood.

When i say it’s a non-existent skill set, I’m implying that its not a dynamic skill that distorts the shape of the opposing defense. Bjelly takes the drive only when the space is there, when opposing defenses are basically daring him to drive.

WIth Bags in there, every defender plays a step in to shade against his drives, which at this point he’ll likely take with or without space.

I love soccer and have been following Chelsea lately, bcz of Pulisic. Chelsea fans have been asking why Willian is starting in front of Pulisic or CHO (18 yr old, british winger; cheksea’s version of Bags effectively) and the coach often says Willian’s unpredictable running collapses the shape of the opposing defense, which is invaluable.

Bjelly provides stretch scoring n secodary playmaking, but in time Bags will provide both with the ability to collapse opposing defenses. Hence why i think the kings decide to take the bumps now when he returns.

 

[Livinthedream]

Understood.

When i say it’s a non-existent skill set, I’m implying that its not a dynamic skill that distorts the shape of the opposing defense. Bjelly takes the drive only when the space is there, when opposing defenses are basically daring him to drive.

WIth Bags in there, every defender plays a step in to shade against his drives, which at this point he’ll likely take with or without space.

I love soccer and have been following Chelsea lately, bcz of Pulisic. Chelsea fans have been asking why Willian is starting in front of Pulisic or CHO (18 yr old, british winger; cheksea’s version of Bags effectively) and the coach often says Willian’s unpredictable running collapses the shape of the opposing defense, which is invaluable.

Bjelly provides stretch scoring n secodary playmaking, but in time Bags will provide both with the ability to collapse opposing defenses. Hence why i think the kings decide to take the bumps now when he returns.

Yes. While Bagley is taking his lumps, he's putting up 18pts and 10reb a night. Nothing less than what Holmes and Bjelica do on their best nights. I love Holmes and think he plays his role perfect. But he is in no way as talented as Bagley. We're confusing style of play with production. Holmes is active and aggressive on defense. But it's also something that can and will be used against him when we play better teams and he will stay in foul trouble. Bjelica on defense? He will get an occasional block or whatever, but he's not staying in front of the better 4 or 5s in the league.

Bottom line is the team needs to learn to play with Fox and Bagley. As Bagley and Fox progress, you open up the offensive playbook. You don't start benching or trading top 5 lottery picks in favor of career journeyman.

 

[L'Optimisme]

Holmes
Bags
Barnes
Buddy
Fox

Simple.

 

[DesertFox]

Yes. While Bagley is taking his lumps, he's putting up 18pts and 10reb a night. Nothing less than what Holmes and Bjelica do on their best nights. I love Holmes and think he plays his role perfect. But he is in no way as talented as Bagley. We're confusing style of play with production. Holmes is active and aggressive on defense. But it's also something that can and will be used against him when we play better teams and he will stay in foul trouble. Bjelica on defense? He will get an occasional block or whatever, but he's not staying in front of the better 4 or 5s in the league.

Bottom line is the team needs to learn to play with Fox and Bagley. As Bagley and Fox progress, you open up the offensive playbook. You don't start benching or trading top 5 lottery picks in favor of career journeyman.

Nobody is saying Bagley should collect splinters sitting on his butt. The biggest need for his talents come when Fox is not on the floor. The easiest way to do that is let someone else play the first 5 minutes of every half. And unless he has made huge strides, there is little defensive argument vs Belly or Holmes.

There is no question who the best big on the clippers is, but he doesn't start.

 

[John Galt]

I think @sactowndog is giving numbers for WCS and Bagley and is extrapolating that because Rachaun's game is similar to.that of WCS (offensively) they would have similar spacing issues.

for what its worth, I also understood your initial question about when they shared the floor to pertain to WCS and Bagley

Well.. no. And I don’t thing WCS resembles Holmes. But thanks ... I am a demonstrably poor communicate ask anybody.

 

[ESP47]

Offense off the bench from the 4 spot is going to be provided by Bjelica. The only real question is whether Holmes is going to continue to start, or whether he'll move back to the bench in favor of Dedmon so as not to crowd Bagley out of the paint.

Beli again has the best advanced stats on the team. Pulling him out of the starting lineup for Bagley basically ensures that you're throwing the season and just working on Bagley's development. I think it's too early for that but this is not a season for patience as far as wins and losses go. If the Kings can't play at .500 for the next 10 games or so, I'm all for plugging Bagley in the lineup and letting him develop. If they look like there's some sliver of hope, you have to go with Beli if you want to win games right now.

 

[sactowndog]

I'm confused. I thought Bagley got hurt at the end of the first game. 28 minutes. Holmes played 17 in that game. And if they played together in the first game (couldn't have been more than 17 minutes and probably less) and had a -2, then that was probably better than par for the day given that we got smoked that game?
I'm sure you're right based x and o's game theory or something, but it doesn't seem there is overwhelming "no duh" evidence that Holmes and Bagley can't be effective in the same lineup.

I posted WCS and Bagley from last year. Both WCS and Holmes are post players better around the basket.

 

[sactowndog]

Well.. no. And I don’t thing WCS resembles Holmes. But thanks ... I am a demonstrably poor communicate ask anybody.

Communicator ;-). And I would agree on the defensive end. Offensively all three make their living around the basket.

 

[rosa u podne]

Yes. While Bagley is taking his lumps, he's putting up 18pts and 10reb a night. Nothing less than what Holmes and Bjelica do on their best nights. I love Holmes and think he plays his role perfect. But he is in no way as talented as Bagley. We're confusing style of play with production. Holmes is active and aggressive on defense. But it's also something that can and will be used against him when we play better teams and he will stay in foul trouble. Bjelica on defense? He will get an occasional block or whatever, but he's not staying in front of the better 4 or 5s in the league.

Bottom line is the team needs to learn to play with Fox and Bagley. As Bagley and Fox progress, you open up the offensive playbook. You don't start benching or trading top 5 lottery picks in favor of career journeyman.

The first point: Last season, Bagley had good counting statistics. The team played worst with him on the floor. We are not confusing style with production, you are confusing individual counting statistics with team performance.

The second point: Bjelica puts the effort on defense, he always challenges shot. OTOH he is not quick enough to stay in front of quicker 4s or 4/3 hybrids. He is not strong enough to stop the strongest 5s. However, the team played better defense overall with him on the floor last year.

The last point: I completely agree on not trading, unless you somehow end up with even better talent. About benching, it depends on if the team is PO contender at the time. So that is the dilemma. If the Kings are far from PO position when he comes back, it is no brainer, start Bagley.

IMO, Bagley should come off the bench when he comes back from injury. When he has his legs back and gradually gets in synch with his teammates, he should move to the starting lineup. The question is who he should replace. If Dedmon plays better, they could replace together Holmes and Bjelica.