Let's actually examine this, here is as good as any place.
Ok, so last year we have this coach:
George Karl
and this roster (players in red no longer here):
Cousins
Koufos
Cauley-Stein (rookie)
Acy
Moreland
Dukan (rookie)
Gay
Casspi
Butler
Belinelli
McLemore
Anderson
Curry (rookie)
Rondo
Collison
So now we come into this season and this is our coach:
Dave Joerger
and this is our roster (players in red are new):
Cousins
Koufos
Papagiannis (rookie)
Cauley-Stein
Tolliver
Labissiere (rookie)
Barnes
Gay
Casspi
Patterson
Afflalo
McLemore
Richardson (rookie)
Temple
Collison
Lawson
Farmar
And yet people are sincerely pissing and moaning about this new roster like its some enormous stepdown. Let's look at the changes.
1) George Karl --> Dave Joerger
Even the remaining Karlites have to admit, if nothing else he and the team were not on the same page last year. A significant part of our theory this summer seems to run on this simple formula: we won fewer games last year than we should have because of coaching or coach/star/team clash. If we had merely hired an average coach, and kept the same roster, we would have gotten better just by cleaning the poison from the air. We in fact hired a very good coach, one who we expect to win more than an average coach. So 33 wins (which might have been 35 or so if we play Cuz the last few weeks), + wins we lost to coach feud last year + wins we get for having a good coach in Joerger = ??? If we say that the team quitting on Karl only cost us 3 wins, which is a very dubious number, that's 38. If we say Dave Joerger is only worth 3 more wins than an average coach, which is also dubious, that's 41. If we cross our fingers and hope Boogie can actually play in 72+ games this year...
2) Acy --> Tolliver
I like Quincy Acy. last year he even made an oncourt contribution after his first stint with us was statistically pretty empty. That said is there anyone out there actually arguing that Quincy's career 4.5pts 3.6reb 12.6PER is so superior to Tolliver's career 6.0pts 3.5reb 11.0PER that its going to somehow scuttle our season?
3) Butler --> Barnes
Caron played much of last season with a giant fork stuck in his back, and then was in some sort of feud with Karl to boot. End result = not a contributor. Meanwhile Barnes was still chugging along last year, averaging 10.0pts 5.5rebs in 76 games for the same coach we now have coaching the Kings, and still feisty on defense. This should be an easy and obvious upgrade.
4) Belinelli --> Afflalo
While Bels might have seemed like a good idea, last year was such a disaster with him that even if you absolutely despise Arron Afflalo beyond all reason, how could this be a downgrade? Answer: it can't. In fact with just any sort of normal Afflalo performance it will be a significant upgrade over what Bels gave us last year.
5) Anderson/Curry/Rondo --> Temple/Farmar/Lawson
Anderson was of course just bad. Temple is a whole other level of long roleplayer. I liked Seth Curry, think we should have kept him, but thanks to Karl Seth's contributions last year were limited to 6.8pts 1.4reb 1.5ast in 44 games. That's a PER of 13.6 BTW. Farmar's 500 game career PER is 13.3 (and was 13.2 last year). Which brings us to maybe the question. Some people have been trying to convince me all summer long that our Rondo resuscitation did not work and that he was the first guy in history to lead the league in assists and not be effective. Well, if true, then we have no problem here. But even if not true, late in the summer Vlade may have opened up the same possibilities again. Like Rondo, a revived Lawson is a good PG in this league. We'll see.
6) then that leaves rookies and scrubs
Moreland/Dukan --> Patterson, Papa, Skal, Richardson
and there's just no way you can tell me that the first two there are more talented or have more chance to help than the guys we have this year.
So where is this huge woe is us problem again? Step by step by step comparatively, the talent isn't any worse, and the only place where we may take a hit is with Rondo. That bothers me, but we are actively gaining in multiple other spots, including hopefully the coach. If Vlade's basic coach calculus -- we should have won more last year, did not because of Karl, and we should win more this year because of Joerger -- is correct, there's nothing stopping this team from being respectable if Joerger can reach them.
By now we all know this argument of how our team got slightly better with the new additions. Sure we could debate, if your assessment of Afflalo (who was so awful for Portland, that they decided to move on and to hand over the keys to an unproven, slightly undersized combo guard and a raw SG prospect, who both were known to be overwhelmed on defense from time to time, while the player you see in Afflalo should be a much better fit in theory next to an offense first PG like Lillard) is on point or not or if Tolliver is truly better than Acy, but most of us will agree with what you wrote. Nevertheless this is not the only way to look at the team.
Our own team development doesn't happen in a vacuum. We have to take the new makeup of the teams into account, that will try to make it to the 8th seed in the West this year.
I think we all agree, that last year was a down year in the West aside from the dominating teams and true title contenders. The Clippers weren't healthy, the Rockets severely underperformed, the Grizzlies core collapsed entirely, the Pelicans had their usual injury problems, the Jazz came up short again. Meanwhile Portland certainly overperformed and exceeded all expectations. And the Mavs? Well the Mavs were the Mavs and once again found a way to sneak in and nobody understood how they did it afterwards.
With so many teams not meeting their expectations the offseason went as should be expected - there was quite a bit of activity in order to get better.
I think Utah had one of the best offseasons: the added George Hill, Boris Diaw and Joe Johnson, while only loosing Trevor Booker. Their defensive core of Favors, Gobert, Hayward was already stellar. Now they have one of the best defensive PG's too. Booker will be missed by some fans, but Diaw and Lyles are more than capable to exceed Bookers contribution on the court. And oh - Exum may be finally healthy again.
Talentwise the Jazz are superior to the Kings outside the center position. And because I'm a huge fan of Joerger I give him the edge over Snyder, who isn't a bad coach per se.
The Pelicans are hoping, that Evans, Holiday and AD can finally stay healthy and mostly added complimentary pieces roughly in the same age class. Sadly Holiday will miss a part of the season again and you just can't count on AD's health anymore. So the Pel's are a bit of a wildcard. If all goes well, they are slightly more talented than the Kings, but due to their coaching choice, I would bet on the Kings. Nontheless I like the additions of Solomon Hill, Moore, Jones and Galloway. Lance Stephenson makes sense, when you expect Evans to miss a significant number of games again. With Gordon and Anderson gone the defense will improve. It remains to be seen, if they somehow can replace their offensive production.
The Grizzlies? Once again everyone around the league told them it's time to end "Grit and Grind" and to finally rebuild. Once again they decided to give it another go. Barring an epic coaching screw up or severe injury problems it will be enough to make the Playoffs.
Timberwolves? Unproven but talented beyond belief and with a seasoned coach. Hard to believe, that the Timberwolves won't get better.
Denver? Don't rule them out. Malone won't tank and there is quite a bit of talent on the roster to work with. Still their inexperience at the PG position makes it hard to believe, that they can compete for the 8th, but who knows, how Mudiay will perform in his second year.
Rockets? If they somehow find a way to play some defense, they are a lock for the Playoffs. But that's a big if, when your star is James Harden and you want Ryan Anderson to play alongside him.
Mavs? Do they finally break down? I believe it, when I see it.
Yes the Thunder got worse, thanks to Durant, but making the Playoffs in the West this year will be an extreme uphill battle for this Kings squad. We can't count on talent. We need to outwork and outsmart our opponents. Given that we are stacked with veterans now and we have a coach able to achieve something with basically nothing this might be possible. But the odds are not in our favour and if we make it, I personally want Grant to kneel before DMC and to apologize for all of his stupid, oversimplified rants and I want the Kings Fans to ring their cowbells and shout "MVP" and "Coach of the year" all game long during the last regular season game in 2017.
That's what it takes - an MVP performance by DMC and a Coach of the year performance by Joerger.
Now I can't wait for preseason to finally arrive.
Routing for respectability is routing for a half-step higher than mediocrity but not necessarily the playoffs. My analysis is much simpler - one of the worst and riskier guard lineups in a guard league, a rearranging of mediocre vet chairs, a bunch of know-nothing rookies, with an uninspired Gay centered around the inconsistent problematic Cousins. Can Joerger reach them? That invites the question: Are they reach-able? No doubt, if the Kings can't climb out of mediocrity to respectability (whatever that is), Joerger will be to blame. Could it be any different?
