Trade Suggestion: Fox for Simmons + #28
- Thread starter kb02
- Start date
The Sixers are going to hunt for the best possible deal they can get. That's what they should be doing. The question is, if teams are unwilling to part with their all-star level talents in exchange for a player who's alarmingly afraid to shoot, do the Sixers actually run it back with Simmons, hoping he's committed to putting in the work and hoping that it's enough to get them to the Finals despite Simmons' terrible fit with Joel Embiid? Even if Simmons puts in the work to become a serviceable shooter, they won't be seeing the dividends of that work anytime soon. It's a few years down the road before any team truly reaps the rewards of coaching Simmons' into a league-average shooter. There's a lot to overcome there, both mentally and mechanically.
Ordinarily, you can wait on a talented, versatile, 24-year-old all-star wing like Simmons. But unfortunately for Philadelphia, their title window is bound entirely to Joel Embiid's health. He's a 280 lb. 7-footer with a damning history of major foot and knee injuries. In the modern NBA, those guys simply do not have the longevity of smaller/lighter players. Philly needs to be in the Finals soon. Really, they needed to take their shot this season, when they were mostly healthy and the elite of both conferences struggled with major injuries of their own. One bad step for Embiid and his team's window is closed until the next generational talent comes along. And they don't come around often.
Daryl Morey could be called many things, but "risk averse" is not among them. He unquestionably needs more shooting around Joel Embiid, and if there is no pathway to a dream deal for Damian Lillard or Bradley Beal, or even a less ideal trade for a non-shooting star-level talent like De'Aaron Fox, then maybe Buddy Hield, one of the most efficient volume three-point shooters in the entire league, starts to look pretty good to Morey. He was brought in to seal the deal on the Process. The Sixers have been running in place with the Embiid/Simmons pairing and have never managed to reach the third round in the lesser conference. I fully expect Morey to pull the trigger on a Simmons deal before the trade deadline next season, but I am curious to see what he ultimately manages to get in return.
Ordinarily, you can wait on a talented, versatile, 24-year-old all-star wing like Simmons. But unfortunately for Philadelphia, their title window is bound entirely to Joel Embiid's health. He's a 280 lb. 7-footer with a damning history of major foot and knee injuries. In the modern NBA, those guys simply do not have the longevity of smaller/lighter players. Philly needs to be in the Finals soon. Really, they needed to take their shot this season, when they were mostly healthy and the elite of both conferences struggled with major injuries of their own. One bad step for Embiid and his team's window is closed until the next generational talent comes along. And they don't come around often.
Daryl Morey could be called many things, but "risk averse" is not among them. He unquestionably needs more shooting around Joel Embiid, and if there is no pathway to a dream deal for Damian Lillard or Bradley Beal, or even a less ideal trade for a non-shooting star-level talent like De'Aaron Fox, then maybe Buddy Hield, one of the most efficient volume three-point shooters in the entire league, starts to look pretty good to Morey. He was brought in to seal the deal on the Process. The Sixers have been running in place with the Embiid/Simmons pairing and have never managed to reach the third round in the lesser conference. I fully expect Morey to pull the trigger on a Simmons deal before the trade deadline next season, but I am curious to see what he ultimately manages to get in return.
Are players not allowed to have personal lives?
They can kick rocks though, I'm not interested in losing Fox. Also @hrdboild I don't think Portland would ship Lillard at this time - McCollum is probably the best 1:1 they'd get for Simmons though. If Lillard leaves Portland it will be after next season if they fail to make it to the WCF. If Portland fans can't back off I do see this happening though.
They can kick rocks though, I'm not interested in losing Fox. Also @hrdboild I don't think Portland would ship Lillard at this time - McCollum is probably the best 1:1 they'd get for Simmons though. If Lillard leaves Portland it will be after next season if they fail to make it to the WCF. If Portland fans can't back off I do see this happening though.
Another note about Philly's demands in any potential Ben Simmons trade: star-for-star deals have been rare phenomena across NBA history, and they're even rarer in the modern NBA, when teams trading away their [often-disgruntled] stars are usually searching for draft capital as they reset the board. Very few teams that trade an all-star level talent have leverage anymore when they do so.
Philadelphia is doing what they have to do in putting the word out that they won't accept anything less than a star in return for Simmons. But if they want to trade Simmons, they don't have much leverage and they're fighting against the tide of recent history. NBA GMs always smell blood in the water, and as good as Simmons is, his flaws are such that I don't think there's a single team in the NBA for whom Simmons is so coveted a proposition that they'd be willing to part with one of their own all-stars to get him. Maybe a third-tier "star" like McCollum. Maybe an elite shooter like Hield. Maybe an up-and-coming talent. Maybe one or two of the above plus draft capital. But I seriously doubt anybody's going to blink and give up a legitimate all-star for Simmons when they know that trading him is Philly's best chance at adjusting their roster to better fit their championship aspirations. And I hope that a team like the Kings doesn't part with the future all-star that they have in De'Aaron Fox for Simmons.
I'm sure Daryl Morey knows all of this. I suspect he recognizes that he's unlikely to get "fair value" in return. I bet he's hoping that he can tempt the Kings' first-time GM into making a first-time mistake on the trade market, but I don't imagine Morey considers it likely. Fortunately, I also don't think Monte McNair would be quite so foolish to trade away Fox just yet, and his existing relationship with Morey lessens the possibility he would accept a deal that makes his ex-boss look like a genius for getting better-than-expected value for Simmons.
Philadelphia is doing what they have to do in putting the word out that they won't accept anything less than a star in return for Simmons. But if they want to trade Simmons, they don't have much leverage and they're fighting against the tide of recent history. NBA GMs always smell blood in the water, and as good as Simmons is, his flaws are such that I don't think there's a single team in the NBA for whom Simmons is so coveted a proposition that they'd be willing to part with one of their own all-stars to get him. Maybe a third-tier "star" like McCollum. Maybe an elite shooter like Hield. Maybe an up-and-coming talent. Maybe one or two of the above plus draft capital. But I seriously doubt anybody's going to blink and give up a legitimate all-star for Simmons when they know that trading him is Philly's best chance at adjusting their roster to better fit their championship aspirations. And I hope that a team like the Kings doesn't part with the future all-star that they have in De'Aaron Fox for Simmons.
I'm sure Daryl Morey knows all of this. I suspect he recognizes that he's unlikely to get "fair value" in return. I bet he's hoping that he can tempt the Kings' first-time GM into making a first-time mistake on the trade market, but I don't imagine Morey considers it likely. Fortunately, I also don't think Monte McNair would be quite so foolish to trade away Fox just yet, and his existing relationship with Morey lessens the possibility he would accept a deal that makes his ex-boss look like a genius for getting better-than-expected value for Simmons.
Then I'd say they aren't serious about trading Simmons.
They've got a disgruntled former #1 pick on a huge anchor of a contract who can't (and won't) shoot in big game situations whose value around the league is cratering. The offer is one of the best outside shooters in the league, a still-young former #2 pick who has lost a lot of development time but still has a chance to be very good, and two good picks for The Anchor, a bad pick, and Thybulle (a good defensive wing with zero offense to speak of).
They might try to do better than that, but if they laugh the Kings off the phone, then they're not serious about trading Simmons. It's all a show.
They've got a disgruntled former #1 pick on a huge anchor of a contract who can't (and won't) shoot in big game situations whose value around the league is cratering. The offer is one of the best outside shooters in the league, a still-young former #2 pick who has lost a lot of development time but still has a chance to be very good, and two good picks for The Anchor, a bad pick, and Thybulle (a good defensive wing with zero offense to speak of).
They might try to do better than that, but if they laugh the Kings off the phone, then they're not serious about trading Simmons. It's all a show.
Then Philly can pursue some other deal or run it back with Simmons and take their chances. Any good GM is looking at Philadelphia's situation right now and daring them to maintain the status quo. "Sure, go for it," they're thinking. Trot out the limited duo of Embiid/Simmons again next season, where their never-better-than-the-semi's squad gets to face-off against a healthy Nets team featuring Durant/Harden/Irving and a Giannis-led Milwaukee Bucks team riding high off their first Finals appearance (and potential championship victory).
And hey, if the Sixers' roster was instead the Kings' roster, then maybe I don't care too much if I'm a fan, and maybe I can play things safe and conservative if I'm the GM. After fifteen years of futility, near-relocation, bad luck, and worse management, I'd be happy to settle for playoff appearances and second-round exits every year. Just the hope of making it to the Finals would be enough for me as a fan, and incremental improvement might be enough for me as a GM, given the size of the market and the expectations.
But Daryl Morey isn't the GM of a small market team with modest expectations, nor does Philadelphia have the kind of fanbase that will accept less than a championship after enduring the Process. They are a title-or-bust franchise right now, and they have been for the last several years. If they want to laugh the Kings off the phone, then I would wish Daryl Morey the best of luck. See if you can get something better than one of the best volume three-point shooters in the league and strong, fungible assets you can flip for contributors. If he can, then he's as good a GM as everyone says he is. If he can't, well, then that's just the nature of the market in the modern NBA.
And hey, if the Sixers' roster was instead the Kings' roster, then maybe I don't care too much if I'm a fan, and maybe I can play things safe and conservative if I'm the GM. After fifteen years of futility, near-relocation, bad luck, and worse management, I'd be happy to settle for playoff appearances and second-round exits every year. Just the hope of making it to the Finals would be enough for me as a fan, and incremental improvement might be enough for me as a GM, given the size of the market and the expectations.
But Daryl Morey isn't the GM of a small market team with modest expectations, nor does Philadelphia have the kind of fanbase that will accept less than a championship after enduring the Process. They are a title-or-bust franchise right now, and they have been for the last several years. If they want to laugh the Kings off the phone, then I would wish Daryl Morey the best of luck. See if you can get something better than one of the best volume three-point shooters in the league and strong, fungible assets you can flip for contributors. If he can, then he's as good a GM as everyone says he is. If he can't, well, then that's just the nature of the market in the modern NBA.
That deal is offering a 6 man, who is making $22m per year.
A young big, who can’t stay healthy and is on the last year of his rookie deal.
#9 and a future first in the 20s.
In return, Philly gives up Thybulle, who can net a pick in the 20s.
#28.
And Simmons.
#28 > future first in the 20s.
Thybulle about the same or more value than Bagley when factoring in more years under control.
You get Buddy (great shooter, flawed, overpaid) plus 9 for Simmons.
Philly hangs up.
A young big, who can’t stay healthy and is on the last year of his rookie deal.
#9 and a future first in the 20s.
In return, Philly gives up Thybulle, who can net a pick in the 20s.
#28.
And Simmons.
#28 > future first in the 20s.
Thybulle about the same or more value than Bagley when factoring in more years under control.
You get Buddy (great shooter, flawed, overpaid) plus 9 for Simmons.
Philly hangs up.
You can call Buddy a 6th man as much asyou like, but he has primarily been a starter the past few years. And while I think hr would be better as a 6th man on the Kings, I think he would be a starter on the Sixers.
As for Thybulle, I think you could be over rating his worth around the league. There is no doubting his ability on defense, but you can't ignor him being a liability on offense. While you may find a team willing to trade a late first round pick for him, my guess is that most teams would rather take their chances in the draft.
As for Thybulle, I think you could be over rating his worth around the league. There is no doubting his ability on defense, but you can't ignor him being a liability on offense. While you may find a team willing to trade a late first round pick for him, my guess is that most teams would rather take their chances in the draft.
