EIM86
Starter
We just happen to catch them on mega fire. Legit excuse lol
The Tankathon Thread (since that's apparently what this is now)
- Thread starter Tetsujin
- Start date
We just happen to catch them on mega fire. Legit excuse lol
parker
Bench
I wouldn't have thought the Suns would have either, but look at them now.
Tetsujin
The Game Thread Dude
Brandon Ingram is playing at a legit MVP level right now.
iowamcnabb
Hall of Famer
I don’t really like his game but he is playing out of of his mind. I still don’t like their roster but it looks like they will surpass the Lakers.
EIM86
Starter
yup this is a terrible terrible idea. Zion looking like a bust
EIM86
Starter
The team +/- is -0.2, which is quite a bit better than the other teams in the vicinity, and they have a pretty favorable schedule going forward. They looked downright bad against us, but somehow their overall numbers are far better. Anybody projecting wins and losses on season stats will give them good odds to make the playoffs.
Tetsujin
The Game Thread Dude
I mean, I'm trying to figure out why Portland has a 20% chance when they're actively trying to tank now and seem to have no intent of winning games
Tetsujin
The Game Thread Dude
I think the issue there is that these full season stats they're using to make projections don't seem to account for the Spurs trading their second best player to Boston for a pick or cutting/moving most of their bigs at the deadline.
steelevt
All-Star
Why didn’t they just pass it into the back court?
Tetsujin
The Game Thread Dude
Just tank for the rest of the season for ****s sake. For the rest of the season every single win we get is bad for us. Literally. We arent competitive yet, not even close and trading for Sabonis isnt a thing that magically turns everything around. We still need a good coach, one top level player and time to get everything to work. The more we win, the worse chance we have to get that top level talent that could actually change things for this franchise.
Just lose as much as possible. Rest your best guys and showcase the younger talent. Do literally everything you can to get a pick in the top 4. Thats the best chance for this franchise to end this shamefull run.
If we end up 8-9 pre lottery this year its probably the last straw for me. Thats extreme level incompetence year after year. I don care that the win now bullcrap is ordered by the owner and we dont have a chance to do anything else. If the restaurant only serves up garbage and tries to justify it by saying that its the only thing our owner allows us to serve, I'll stop going to that restaurant.
The tank will get the owners mandate or wont but as almost every single fan knows its the best way forward for this season, we should be loud about it. It either helps or not but giving a silent consent for this malpractice is not the way
Just lose as much as possible. Rest your best guys and showcase the younger talent. Do literally everything you can to get a pick in the top 4. Thats the best chance for this franchise to end this shamefull run.
If we end up 8-9 pre lottery this year its probably the last straw for me. Thats extreme level incompetence year after year. I don care that the win now bullcrap is ordered by the owner and we dont have a chance to do anything else. If the restaurant only serves up garbage and tries to justify it by saying that its the only thing our owner allows us to serve, I'll stop going to that restaurant.
The tank will get the owners mandate or wont but as almost every single fan knows its the best way forward for this season, we should be loud about it. It either helps or not but giving a silent consent for this malpractice is not the way
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I would just cool my jets on the "last straw" bit if I was you. What if post-lottery we have a top 3 pick, though? The lottery odds changed in 2019 (changing the lottery odds and extending the "lottery" portion to top 4 instead of top 3, by the way). The team with the lowest number of wins (#1 pick pre-lottery) actually has only a 52.1% chance of actually getting a top-4 pick now (same for the bottom 3 teams), with an "expected" pick at 4. Over the past 5 years several teams (including the Kings, twice!) have jumped into a top 3-4 pick.
2021: 5 to 3 and 7 to 4
2020: 8 to 3 and 7 to 4
2019: 7 to 1, 8 to 2, and 11 to 4
And, before the most recent lottery odds changes:
2018: 7 to 2, Sacramento makes the wrong selection even at 2
2017: 8 to 3 (pick swap to 5), Sacramento takes Fox
So, in the past 5 years alone, teams outside the top 3-4 get 9 selections at a top 3 player (and from 2019 on, teams outside the top 4 got 7 of the 12 top 4 picks!; that's what the lottery odds changes were intended to do - discourage overt tanking). But you also have to pick well wherever you select (*cough* 2018 *cough*)!
No, I'm not saying that having a higher pick pre-lottery wouldn't be "better", but the current lottery odds heavily favor lottery movement, with 58.3% of the top 4 picks going to teams outside the top 4 pre-lottery since 2019 (again, when the lottery odds changed).
I've posted this before, but it bears repeating (not sure when this was last updated, but you get the idea):
That's from: 2022 NBA Draft Lottery Odds | Tankathon
Right now (assuming this is current), we still have a 37.2% chance of a top 4 pick, and that's without us "tanking".
sactowndog
All-Star
Notice the drop by 8.4% after 7. That point is where we will be after New York, San Antonio and maybe Portland slide by us, while we play Fox 40 minutes a game.
I Know the lottery odds by heart and the thing that worries me is us dropping from 6 even further. 5 would be extremely achievable , 4 could be possible but dropping to 7-10 would be horrible.
We dont gain anything from playing the key players 40min a game. Our coach of the future isnt here, we arent learning the new system or anything. Pushing for every win at this point is extremely short sighted and a horrible strategy and Im not going to tolerate horrible incompetence anymore. If we somehow manage to drop 7-10 pre lottery, thats most likely due to horrible strategy. Its the last straw since this franchise has operated very badly for so long. Quick fix solutions, win now moves and by every chance ignoring the patient rebuild to actually put the team in a position to compete rather than praying to be maybe the 16th-20th best team in a 30 team league.
EIM86
Starter
we might have a Netflix documentary called The Last Straw one day LOL
“When they lost that game, I took it personally and that was The Last Straw”
iowamcnabb
Hall of Famer
Only for some Kings fans it will be “When they won that game it was The Last Straw”
I never said play the starters 40 minutes, etc. I just said don't freak out and quit the team just because we aren't one of the bottom 3 teams come the end of the year. The lottery odds flattened out quite a bit. At this point, with the play-in likely out of reach and our tough remaining schedule, we are going to lose most of our remaining games anyways. Hopefully the coaching staff/FO will prioritize player development and evaluation. But Gentry is also trying to win because that's his job. Players, too.
I'd also prefer to be one of the bottom teams to help our chances at a top 3 pick, but in the end it's just basketball. Whatever happens, happens. I'm not going to lose any sleep over it one way or another.
I'd also prefer to be one of the bottom teams to help our chances at a top 3 pick, but in the end it's just basketball. Whatever happens, happens. I'm not going to lose any sleep over it one way or another.
twslam07
All-Star
Yeah, I'm not convinced we're even a more talented team than IND at this point (especially if Turner and Warren come back healthy).
PG - Haliburton / McConnell / Sykes
SG - Brogdon / Hield / Stephenson
SF - Duarte / Brissett
PF - Warren / Smith
C - Turner / Bitadze / Jackson
PG - Fox / Mitchell
SG - Holiday / DiVincenzo / Lamb
SF - Barnes / Harkless / Jackson
PF - Lyles / Metu
C - Sabonis / Holmes / Jones / Len
If we can land between 4-6 (although I think taking over 4th from OKC is a stretch at this point), we'd at least have a somewhat decent chance at moving up (41.2% chance at a top 4 pick if we finish 5th and 37.2% chance at a top 4 pick if we finish 6th).
Adding someone like Smith, Holmgren, Ivey, & Griffin would be huge for us (Smith would be not only the best talent but the absolute best fit with our core. He's the pipe dream. in my opinion.
They're gunning for this exact scenario to play itself out. They do it every year and they're perfectly on course this year. Thunder are still playing SGA but he basically plays 32min a night max while we play Fox 40min and Barnes 38min when the playoffs are basically out of sight. This is what happens when every coach is coaching for their future at the end of the season. Of course they're going to do all they can to eek out wins.
I just wish our tank commander wasn't last years FRP.
EIM86
Starter
Just asking, why Smith over Chet?
Tetsujin
The Game Thread Dude
I'm not so sure Indy's in all that great a shape right now TBH.
Warren's a free agent and Jalen Smith is playing well enough that the Pacers probably aren't going to be able to match whatever contract a team offers him this summer under the CBA extension rules (in Sacramento, this is called the Harry Giles rule). The Pacers have been really bad on defense since the trade (they're also missing Turner which is part of it)
It's also yet to be seen if Brogdan and Haliburton can play together longterm and if Rick "People say I'm a good coach because I won a ship a decade ago" Carlisle's mad grab for power (he's reportedly taken control of personnel) is going to work. Sure they have two picks to work with and have Tyrese but their pick is likely going to end up in the Jaden Ivey/Johnny Davis zone (yay! Guard crunch!) and that Cavs pick is probably going to be in the 20s in a fairly week draft. I guess they could move Brogdan for more draft assets but the Pacers also have indicated that they'd like to build around Haliburton and Brogdan.
Next year, they could be going into the season with
Haliburton/McConnell
Brogdan/Buddy/Duarte
(#5 pick - Davis/Keegan/Griffin?)/Brissett
???
Turner/Jackson/Bitadze
It's a nice collection of players, sure, but entirely reliant on Tyrese taking another leap and the theory that playing next to Sabonis was holding Myles Turner back this whole time. The Pacers do have a bit of cap room to play with this summer but they'd probably be better served using that to take on bad contracts for draft assets. Otherwise, they're probably right back where they started.
Also Goga is flaming trash.
sactowndog
All-Star
Updated we have 16 remaining games……
I have us with likely losses: 7
Pheonix (1), Boston(1), Utah (1), Mil (1), GS(1), Chicago (1), Miami (1)
I have as likely wins: 6
Houston (2), Indy (1), Orlando (1), Phx(1), New York (1)
I have toss ups remaining as:
Toss ups: 3
Denver (1), New Orleans (1) Clippers (1)
Meanwhile……
New Orleans has 19 games with the following against tanking teams:
Portland (2), Houston (1), San Antonio (2), Orlando (1)
assume best case they go 3-10 with the other games to get to to finish this stretch 9-10. That would make them 36-46
That would mean the Kings who sit at 42 losses already, to tie, would still have to win all three toss-ups and 3 of 7 likely losses.
No rational thinking organization would be playing Fox 40 minutes risking injury and draft odds given those scenarios. But the Kings are run by ****ing idiots so here we sit.
the Kings will win the six likely wins against rational organizations to fall to their customary 8-9 draft spot and crown themselves the dumbest organization in all business much less sport!
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