State of the Kings Pre-trade Deadline Edition

[Gguod]

For sure better than him:
Jokic
Embiid
KAT
Bam
Sabonis
Gobert
Vuc


Probably better than him, but at least a discussion:
Capela
Brook Lopez
Myles Turner
Ayton
Nurk (if healthy)

After that though? I think you could probably slot him 11th-13th fairly comfortably. And what makes him valuable is you can fit him with star wings and not have your offense built around him like most of the top 10 C's. Center certainly isn't as valuable a position anymore, but what Holmes does on defense with his ability to hedge the perimeter while still able to protect the rim is an incredible valuable skill-set that's hard to find. Especially in a super productive offensive player (68% TS in last 71 games).

Assuming we flipped Barnes AND Buddy, I'd be willing to go 18mil a year. His skill-set is too valuable to let walk.

Thats fair assesment of Holmes' skillset. This is the second year where Holmes is (one of) the best performing King in these advanced metrics. Part of it is that he is a good player and does a lot of little things well. Part of it is that our team doesnt have superstar level players. Its easily arguable that around 10mil for him is a sum we should absolutely keep him long term.

My basic principle about big men is that unless you are absolutely elite at your position, I'm probably not paying you significant money or investing a significant draft asset. The reasoning behind that is that every year you have guys like Whiteside, McGee, Howard, Baynes, WCS (you name it) that can produce on a specific role for nearly a minimum.

Holmes extension comes a year or two too early in a sence that he is the type of guy you extend as a part of already great group. By himself he is not much of a floor raiser but as part of a group lets say like Fox, Hali and Cunningham supported by Barnes, he is absolutely a guy you should look to keep. Thats why he is a difficult situation, it all depends of the assumed market price compared to possible trade return for him.

 

[SacTownKid]

Maybe I’m in the minority on this, but I really don’t want to lose Richaun Holmes. That kid has flourished since joining the franchise and clearly loves being here.

Furthermore, Holmes is exactly the type of player a really good team needs. He plays unselfishly, exceptionally hard and is very productive. He has a money ”go to” shot and doesn’t need the ball in his hands all the time to be effective. He converts free throws at an acceptable rate.

And he plays hard on both ends. He’s a gamer. He’s just a really good player.
Did I mention he loves playing in SAC?

He’s one player aside from Swipa and Hali that I wouldn’t be looking to move. He can very much be part of a winning solution for the KINGS.

I think HB can be part of it too.

Really, Buddy is the only starter I’m not sold on. And MB3 still has much to prove. But Holmes, HB, Swipa, and Hali can all be part of a winning core.

It’s all the other pieces they need to figure out.

They can be but money, contracts, etc. come into play. This is why keeping this garbage show on the road as is isn't a good thing. The Kings can't bust their cap for the next few years to keep a situation together that they don't know is a keeper or not. This is why Vlade wasting so much time last year and them wasting time now with a lame duck coach is so problematic.

 

[Folsomkingsfan]

There are 30 teams in the NBA and you rank him around 10th-12th.
Minimizing the contributions of a guy like Mr. Holmes is a mistake. He plays defense and rebounds. He runs the floor and leads the league in field goal percentage. He does not turn the ball over compared to most centers. He has foul issues.

Holmes has his limitations for sure and a ceiling he has pretty much reached, but I think his play still makes him a valuable commodity in this league. I can definitely see Holmes being the starting center on a team that makes deep playoff runs. That being said I would probably cap his value at $13M a year.

 

[Livinthedream]

For sure better than him:
Jokic
Embiid
KAT
Bam
Sabonis
Gobert
Vuc


Probably better than him, but at least a discussion:
Capela
Brook Lopez
Myles Turner
Ayton
Nurk (if healthy)

After that though? I think you could probably slot him 11th-13th fairly comfortably. And what makes him valuable is you can fit him with star wings and not have your offense built around him like most of the top 10 C's. Center certainly isn't as valuable a position anymore, but what Holmes does on defense with his ability to hedge the perimeter while still able to protect the rim is an incredible valuable skill-set that's hard to find. Especially in a super productive offensive player (68% TS in last 71 games).

Assuming we flipped Barnes AND Buddy, I'd be willing to go 18mil a year. His skill-set is too valuable to let walk.

Are these guys in the discussion? I think they should be.

Ibaka
Adams
Valenciunis
C. Wood
J. Allen
Drummond
Porzingis

Maybe even Cousins and Horford.

 

[The_Jamal]

Are these guys in the discussion? I think they should be.

Ibaka
Adams
Valenciunis
C. Wood
J. Allen
Drummond
Porzingis

Maybe even Cousins and Horford.

The bolded for sure. Allen looks to be taking a leap with Cleveland, which is cool to see. I consider Kristaps more of a 4, but he would be ahead of Holmes too.

Adams/Jval/Drummond absolutely not. Maybe 7-8 years ago, but they're dinosaurs in today's game and get played off the floor on defense. Cousins unfortunately is barely a passable NBA player right now, much less in the discussion for being a top 15 C. Big guy just can't move out there.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

To be fair, all those contracts were considered massive overpays at the time of their signing and have only gotten worse with age.

It seems the market for centers cratered right around the time that DMC would have come due (and he is one who'd probably have been paid). As disappointing as guys like WCS were, we all thought he'd get 12 million and he gets a minimum. Everyone thought we'd get outbid on Giles too. Whiteside got a minimum. If you can't bomb from 3 it seems like you are junk in this league now.

 

[KingsFanSince85]

If you can't bomb from 3 it seems like you are junk in this league now.

Sad that is the perception, because it just isn’t true.

When Golden State was at their very best, Andrew Bogut was their primary big man. And even their death lineup lacked shooting from Iggy.

Toronto won recently with Gasol not shooting an abundance of 3’s.

Most these teams subscribing to an over-reliance on analytics and all players shooting threes haven’t won squat. They win during the regular season because most every team is doing the same thing and they are better at it. But all it takes is one team to go against the norm and be very good at what they do then the rest of the league is at a disadvantage against that style of play.

That’s exactly what the Warriors did when their dynasty first got off the ground.

Someone else will pull it off at some point. Everything is cyclical.

 

[206Fan]

For sure better than him:
Jokic
Embiid
KAT
Bam
Sabonis
Gobert
Vuc


Probably better than him, but at least a discussion:
Capela
Brook Lopez
Myles Turner
Ayton
Nurk (if healthy)

After that though? I think you could probably slot him 11th-13th fairly comfortably. And what makes him valuable is you can fit him with star wings and not have your offense built around him like most of the top 10 C's. Center certainly isn't as valuable a position anymore, but what Holmes does on defense with his ability to hedge the perimeter while still able to protect the rim is an incredible valuable skill-set that's hard to find. Especially in a super productive offensive player (68% TS in last 71 games).

Assuming we flipped Barnes AND Buddy, I'd be willing to go 18mil a year. His skill-set is too valuable to let walk.

18mpy for Holmes? I think that's too much imo. He's a very athletic rim runner with great finishing ability and touch around the rim. He's also a solid rebounder with athleticism quick enough to occasionally switch out on the perimeter. He's an overall solid defender. However, he struggles against bigger centers. He's a bit undersized at 6'10 240. On offense, he can't space the floor. Having a non-stretch big is a problem in today's NBA. They'd have to make up for this somewhere, and I'm not sure that he does.

Defense FG% Stats:
Holmes allows an overall DFG% of 47.1% at 14.5 attempts/game. For comparison:
-
Bagley 52.7, Jokic 50.9, Embiid 47.3, Holmes 47.1, AD 45.2, BAM 44.7, Capela 44.3, Turner 40.3, Gobert 41.7.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Within 6ft of the rim, he's allowing 53.5%.
-
Bagley 71.2, Jokic 61.3, AD 63.7,BAM 59.2, Embiid 53.5, Gobert 48.5, Holmes 53.5, Capela 47.8, and Turner 45.4.

(wow this just highlighted how terrible of a defender Bagley is)

I think Holmes is a solid starting center, but here are all the centers that I think are better than him.

1. Embiid
2. Jokic
3. AD
4. Gobert
5. KAT
6. BAM
7. Porzingiz
8. Capela
9. Vucevic
10. Turner
11. Nurkic
12. Collins/Sabonis? position
13. Jonas Valanciunas

For me, Holmes is more in the tier of Jarett Allen, Brook Lopez, Steven Adams, and Serge Ibaka.


Looking at recent non-max contracts that have been handed out in the last 2 years, there's:
1. Capela 18mpy (age 23)
2. Turner 20mpy (22)
3. Sabonis 18.7mpy (23)
4. Valanciunas 15mpy (27)
5. Powell 11mpy (27)

I don't see the value of Holmes at 18mpy. I think anywhere from 10-14 is probably my target price.

 

[206Fan]

Sad that is the perception, because it just isn’t true.

When Golden State was at their very best, Andrew Bogut was their primary big man. And even their death lineup lacked shooting from Iggy.

Toronto won recently with Gasol not shooting an abundance of 3’s.

Most these teams subscribing to an over-reliance on analytics and all players shooting threes haven’t won squat. They win during the regular season because most every team is doing the same thing and they are better at it. But all it takes is one team to go against the norm and be very good at what they do then the rest of the league is at a disadvantage against that style of play.

That’s exactly what the Warriors did when their dynasty first got off the ground.

Someone else will pull it off at some point. Everything is cyclical.

I would disagree with you. 3PT shooting is very important in today's game, and I think you have some of the points a bit mixed up.

The Warriors won the championships in 2015, 2017, and 2018. Bogut was actually only part of the 2015 team. While the Warriors were first team to change the 3pt game in the league, everyone else was still fairly behind. In that 2014-2015 season, the league averaged 22.4 3PA/game. In their 2017 and 2018 championships, the league average went up to 27 and 29 3PA/game. This 2021 season, we're currently averaging 34.8 3PA/game. The game has changed tremendously. This is a 3pt shooting league now. You need 3pt shooting.

Gasol on the Raptors did shoot a lot of 3s. In that regular season season, he averaged 2 3PA/game with the Raptors in the regular season in only 26 games. 2 out of 7.2 field goals of his came at the 3pt line. In that post-season, he averaged 3.7 3PA/game in 24 playoff games. 3.7 out of 7.5 field goals of his came at the 3pt line.

3pt shooting is very much important in today's game. Even the last year's Lakers team averaged 31.5 3PA/game.

 

[sactowndog]

https://basketball.realgm.com/wiret...As-Only-True-Sellers-Entering-Deadline-Period

This article reflects the mindset of the Kings. Even though the team out to be selling vets for young assets Vivek will have the strive for the play-offs and perpetually fall short.

 

[iowamcnabb]

https://basketball.realgm.com/wiret...As-Only-True-Sellers-Entering-Deadline-Period

This article reflects the mindset of the Kings. Even though the team out to be selling vets for young assets Vivek will have the strive for the play-offs and perpetually fall short.

The biggest question to me is will anybody be buying what we are selling? I fully expect Belly to get traded but I won't be surprised (although I will be disappointed) if that is our only move. I'm guessing the Kings want to re-sign Holmes but will let him test the market first. Buddy isn't playing well enough and has too many years left on the deal to get moved. That leaves Barnes as the biggest question mark going into the deadline.

 

[sactowndog]

The biggest question to me is will anybody be buying what we are selling? I fully expect Belly to get traded but I won't be surprised (although I will be disappointed) if that is our only move. I'm guessing the Kings want to re-sign Holmes but will let him test the market first. Buddy isn't playing well enough and has too many years left on the deal to get moved. That leaves Barnes as the biggest question mark going into the deadline.

We shall see. I don’t expect any to be traded. I think they are willing to trade Belly but are asking too much. I suspect, similar to Bogi, Belly will walk for nothing.

 

[ppine]

They better recruit some players that can play defense.

 

[ESP47]

18mpy for Holmes? I think that's too much imo. He's a very athletic rim runner with great finishing ability and touch around the rim. He's also a solid rebounder with athleticism quick enough to occasionally switch out on the perimeter. He's an overall solid defender. However, he struggles against bigger centers. He's a bit undersized at 6'10 240. On offense, he can't space the floor. Having a non-stretch big is a problem in today's NBA. They'd have to make up for this somewhere, and I'm not sure that he does.

Defense FG% Stats:
Holmes allows an overall DFG% of 47.1% at 14.5 attempts/game. For comparison:
-
Bagley 52.7, Jokic 50.9, Embiid 47.3, Holmes 47.1, AD 45.2, BAM 44.7, Capela 44.3, Turner 40.3, Gobert 41.7.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Within 6ft of the rim, he's allowing 53.5%.
-
Bagley 71.2, Jokic 61.3, AD 63.7,BAM 59.2, Embiid 53.5, Gobert 48.5, Holmes 53.5, Capela 47.8, and Turner 45.4.

(wow this just highlighted how terrible of a defender Bagley is)

I think Holmes is a solid starting center, but here are all the centers that I think are better than him.

1. Embiid
2. Jokic
3. AD
4. Gobert
5. KAT
6. BAM
7. Porzingiz
8. Capela
9. Vucevic
10. Turner
11. Nurkic
12. Collins/Sabonis? position
13. Jonas Valanciunas

For me, Holmes is more in the tier of Jarett Allen, Brook Lopez, Steven Adams, and Serge Ibaka.


Looking at recent non-max contracts that have been handed out in the last 2 years, there's:
1. Capela 18mpy (age 23)
2. Turner 20mpy (22)
3. Sabonis 18.7mpy (23)
4. Valanciunas 15mpy (27)
5. Powell 11mpy (27)

I don't see the value of Holmes at 18mpy. I think anywhere from 10-14 is probably my target price.

I don't even think he'll get 10mil. I think teams are smartening up on the value of big men in todays game.

 

[iowamcnabb]

I don't even think he'll get 10mil. I think teams are smartening up on the value of big men in todays game.

could be. Christian Wood got 3yr 40 million and that is looking like an absolute steal. Id love to see a 3yr 36 million deal for Holmes. I think that would be fair for both sides.

 

[The_Jamal]

I don't even think he'll get 10mil. I think teams are smartening up on the value of big men in todays game.

This would be insane value for Holmes. Teams are getting smarter with big men, but Holmes really is unique because of his defensive versatility from the 5 position.

 

[Groovygreg]

as far as the Swipa/Rese's Passes debate

Fox has better handles, is a better scorer and a better creator (for himself)

Haliburton is the better facilitator, defender and shooter. Haliburton could end up elite in all 3 of his main skills. I also think he is a more natural leader and will grow into that role as he gets more experience. Fox has very good bbiq, I believe Haliburton has elite bbiq. I never thought I would say this, but Haliburton has a very good chance of being the best player on the team. We could have a Lillard/McCollum level back court tandem in our future.

Haliburton has superior court vision. It is particularly noticeable on fast breaks - Fox takes it to the hole almost every time; ‘Rese almost always finds a teammate in transition and makes the sweet dish.

 

[Groovygreg]

There are 30 teams in the NBA and you rank him around 10th-12th.
Minimizing the contributions of a guy like Mr. Holmes is a mistake. He plays defense and rebounds. He runs the floor and leads the league in field goal percentage. He does not turn the ball over compared to most centers. He has foul issues.

Holmes brings a LOT of positives to the Kings, but he is very foul-prone when he goes up against the elite bigs in the League. That issue is definitely a concern looking forward.

 

[SLAB]

I had my long post earlier; after a few more games and that “W” against Detroit I’ve compiled an even more in-depth analysis.
















We suck.

 

[Groovygreg]

They better recruit some players that can play defense.

...and show some toughness.

 

[Turgenev]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1366140953602441217

 

[SLAB]

My man Hassan is king of that defensive mountain.

 

[SacTownKid]

Holmes brings a LOT of positives to the Kings, but he is very foul-prone when he goes up against the elite bigs in the League. That issue is definitely a concern looking forward.

The other thing to remember is who is coaching this team. This is person with a track record of elevating role players. Holmes is a good player but the Lakers probably regret picking the player Walton elevated in Kuzma over Randle and Ingram. With his usage of Cojo it's not hard to see how his fellow lunch pail role guys are always going to have a great shot to look better than they are. And actually even if they perform as poorly as Cojo has this season they're apparently just as bullet proof.

 

[ppine]

The center position is not the problem.

 

[O0chieboomboom]

Buddy for Aaron Gordon/Aminu?
Idea from Bleacher Report

 

[Capt. Factorial]

Buddy for Aaron Gordon/Aminu?
Idea from Bleacher Report

How many picks are they sending us?

 

[O0chieboomboom]

How many picks are they sending us?

0

https://www.inquisitr.com/6483514/nba-rumors-kings-could-acquire-aaron-gordonfor-buddy-hield-bleac

 

[SacTownKid]

The center position is not the problem.

True but it will be if they overpay and can't make their star young big work with the overpay center. With the decline of the teams progress there are serious issues that need to be addressed sooner than later. Imagine the even bigger disaster this would have been had they matched the Bogdan contract. Yikes! And now there are different potential land mines ahead this offseason.

 

[SacTownKid]

0

https://www.inquisitr.com/6483514/nba-rumors-kings-could-acquire-aaron-gordonfor-buddy-hield-bleac

Honestly, with how both players are kind of being hampered by their specific teams usage it's not a bad value/need thing. Gordon is looking like him playing SF is a bit of a failed experiment but he's enough of a combo F that it's doable. It also basically gets them out of Buddy's deal in a worst case since Gordon only has 1 more season. And if Buddy is used like he was pre Walton and can bounce back under a non-moronic coach then oh well, they gave up a prototype catch and shoot impact guy for an athletic tweener. Whoops, not the end of the world but it does hurt.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

How many picks are they sending us?

I'm not high on Gordon even with Hield underperforming and do not want the Chief and suddenly we are crowded up front and Bagley will lose time and the other young talent won't sniff the floor. If they sent their first this year and a 2nd in 22 it might be intriguing?