Should Watkins start?

[Bricklayer]

Yeha, its been happening a few more times here in the recent past. Maybe a reaction to some of those bad contracts that were being handed out there like candy a few years back. Still pretty rare though. And I still remain torn about it. On the one hand, its been perfectly obviosu to me that Kenny, Reef, Mikki, have ALL been in the way of developing future kiddies for some time now. You could buy them all out, free up three roster spots for young guys, and likely not get too much worse performance from your bigs than you did last night. On the other hand once you buy somebody out you lose all control. You WILL pay them for the full length of their contracts, there is no way around it. No way to shorten it. No way to trade it, swap it, add it into bigger trades etc.

 

[kingsfan101]

Yeha, its been happening a few more times here in the recent past. Maybe a reaction to some of those bad contracts that were being handed out there like candy a few years back. Still pretty rare though. And I still remain torn about it. On the one hand, its been perfectly obviosu to me that Kenny, Reef, Mikki, have ALL been in the way of developing future kiddies for some time now. You could buy them all out, free up three roster spots for young guys, and likely not get too much worse performance from your bigs than you did last night. On the other hand once you buy somebody out you lose all control. You WILL pay them for the full length of their contracts, there is no way around it. No way to shorten it. No way to trade it, swap it, add it into bigger trades etc.

Unless any of these guys agrees to take a big cut when we negotiate their buyout, don't see much point in it (unless the said player is spoiling chemistry; distinct possibility with Kenny). At least in their final year, they can become trade assets.

Of course, their presence shall hinder development of the youngs, who should get as much PT as possible. With both Justin and Hawes unavailable right now, this point is not relevant for now. Later in the season, it might be an issue.

 

[Glenn]

Yeha, its been happening a few more times here in the recent past. Maybe a reaction to some of those bad contracts that were being handed out there like candy a few years back. Still pretty rare though. And I still remain torn about it. On the one hand, its been perfectly obviosu to me that Kenny, Reef, Mikki, have ALL been in the way of developing future kiddies for some time now. You could buy them all out, free up three roster spots for young guys, and likely not get too much worse performance from your bigs than you did last night. On the other hand once you buy somebody out you lose all control. You WILL pay them for the full length of their contracts, there is no way around it. No way to shorten it. No way to trade it, swap it, add it into bigger trades etc.

You will pay them and the amount counts against the salary cap which has its own implications in signing free agents.

They slow the development of youngsters (assuming they can develop) unless the coach plunks their veteran butts on the bench.

I've just been updating my knowledge of the cap after my vacation from the NBA and after the headache ceased and the pus quit oozing out of my ears, it seems like something to be done only if there is a darn good reason and if the player is very amenable to a really large salary cut.

 

[Bricklayer]

Unless any of these guys agrees to take a big cut when we negotiate their buyout, don't see much point in it (unless the said player is spoiling chemistry; distinct possibility with Kenny). At least in their final year, they can become trade assets.

Of course, their presence shall hinder development of the youngs, who should get as much PT as possible. With both Justin and Hawes unavailable right now, this point is not relevant for now. Later in the season, it might be an issue.

Been mentioned in other threads that are several young 7'1" centers out there (DJ MBenga, Jackie Butler) that we have showed interest in in the past, and who are now free agents. Wouldn't it be a lovely thing to be able to bring tthem in for a low cost looksee? Nope. Sorry. Can't. We have Kenny Thomas! Woohoo! I'm still trying to figure out where/who Kenny's constituency is. Who is that likes him on the team? Not the fans. Not the GM. reggie's been blowing smoke, but I have a hard time seeing that beyond the New Mexico connection. So what makes KT stick beyond the $$? If that's all it is...

P.S. should also note that the Warriors declined to pick up the option year on Patrick O'Bryant -- another 7'0" center, and their #9 pick in the draft from a couple of years ago. Would love to be able to explore these sorts of options, but some idiot has stuffed this team to the gills with $20mil of undersized nearly worthless vets at PF. Eat up 40% of your cap, 20% of your roster spaces (and 25% of your active roster spaces since its nearly impossible to drop them off the active roster without creating a major fuss and forever destroying any chance of trading them).

 

[Glenn]

Would love to be able to explore these sorts of options, but some idiot has stuffed this team to the gills with $20mil of undersized nearly worthless vets at PF. Eat up 40% of your cap, 20% of your roster spaces (and 25% of your active roster spaces since its nearly impossible to drop them off the active roster without creating a major fuss and forever destroying any chance of trading them).

I think this is harsh. The "idiot" was trying to deal with the destruction of our star power forwards knee in a way that hurt us the least.

 

[Jerichoholic]

Well said Brick, that's exactly what I'm talking about. In fact I am watching the Det @ Mia game and Joe Dumars was asked why he decided not to re sign Chris Webber. Dumars said that Webber did a good job but they are committed to developing their bench and their young talent.

Last time I checked Detroit was a pretty good team, in fact they're title contenders yet they still have time to develop their young guys for the near future. I can't figure why the Kings organization feel they are above this practice but you're seeing the results of that right now.

 

[SacTownKid]

Been mentioned in other threads that are several young 7'1" centers out there (DJ MBenga, Jackie Butler) that we have showed interest in in the past, and who are now free agents. Wouldn't it be a lovely thing to be able to bring tthem in for a low cost looksee? Nope. Sorry. Can't. We have Kenny Thomas! Woohoo! I'm still trying to figure out where/who Kenny's constituency is. Who is that likes him on the team? Not the fans. Not the GM. reggie's been blowing smoke, but I have a hard time seeing that beyond the New Mexico connection. So what makes KT stick beyond the $$? If that's all it is...

P.S. should also note that the Warriors declined to pick up the option year on Patrick O'Bryant -- another 7'0" center, and their #9 pick in the draft from a couple of years ago. Would love to be able to explore these sorts of options, but some idiot has stuffed this team to the gills with $20mil of undersized nearly worthless vets at PF. Eat up 40% of your cap, 20% of your roster spaces (and 25% of your active roster spaces since its nearly impossible to drop them off the active roster without creating a major fuss and forever destroying any chance of trading them).

Isn't Jackie Butler like 6'8" or 6'9"? But I agree, and didn't the Kings have serious interest in Mbenga a few years back??? What the heck, they could have him at the minimum right now!

 

[=LarryLegend=]

ohh when will jwill return????????

 

[dude12]

Well said Brick, that's exactly what I'm talking about. In fact I am watching the Det @ Mia game and Joe Dumars was asked why he decided not to re sign Chris Webber. Dumars said that Webber did a good job but they are committed to developing their bench and their young talent.

Last time I checked Detroit was a pretty good team, in fact they're title contenders yet they still have time to develop their young guys for the near future. I can't figure why the Kings organization feel they are above this practice but you're seeing the results of that right now.

Douby playing right now.
KMart was developed.
Cisco is getting time.
Watkins who was undrafted made our team and got PT in the first game.
Justin Williams got time at the end of the last year.

I'm not sure what else you want here. Also, tell me who Detroit has developed. Maxiell and Amir Johnson have been molding on the bench for years. Okur got traded from that organization instead of getting PT. They let Carlos Delfino grab serious pine for years before getting rid of him. Do we need to bring up Darko Milicic? Nice job of developing him. They had Carlos Arroyo and they didn't give him any time.

Well said??? Calling a guy an idiot? I thought that language or personal attacks wasn't tolerated on the forum?

 

[Jechtsphere]

ohh when will jwill return????????

If what his lawyer says is true he may by suited up for the Kings opener.

 

[fnordius]

I'm not sure what else you want here.

Can you name any recent Sacramento King, other than Kevin Martin, who played over 1300 minutes a year (15.8 minutes * 82 games) at an age lower than 26?


(If you really want to know, the last player to do this was Mike Bibby.)

 

[Jerichoholic]

Douby playing right now.
KMart was developed.
Cisco is getting time.
Watkins who was undrafted made our team and got PT in the first game.
Justin Williams got time at the end of the last year.

I'm not sure what else you want here. Also, tell me who Detroit has developed. Maxiell and Amir Johnson have been molding on the bench for years. Okur got traded from that organization instead of getting PT. They let Carlos Delfino grab serious pine for years before getting rid of him. Do we need to bring up Darko Milicic? Nice job of developing him. They had Carlos Arroyo and they didn't give him any time.

Well said??? Calling a guy an idiot? I thought that language or personal attacks wasn't tolerated on the forum?

I haven't seen Douby get serious playing time in the regular season, I think he got hurt last game.
The only reason KMart got a chance is because of the Bonzi injury.
Cisco is fine.
Watkins had a terrific first half stint and really never saw the floor since.
Justin Williams hardly got any playing time even in preseason.

So other than Cisco I am not happy with the committment to youth. And I am not one to name call but I'm starting to think that our great Petrie isn't so great that just maybe he had a little luck fall his way for a couple offseasons. If you remember he was our GM before the Maloofs came and he didn't do anything to impress. Then he drafted JWill which any GM would have at that spot, Washington got tired of Webber's act and shipped him to us, and we finally got some cap space and signed Vlade to a big deal. Oh, and that also happened to be the year that Peja decided to come here.

Some things fell into place for him and he was definitely due for some luck. Now you're seeing the Petrie that we were used to seeing.

 

[jimbodan]

I'd rather us try and showcase Kenny Thomas and just pray that maybe if we run every other play through him that just maybe he will have good enough numbers for us to be able to dump him for an expiring. I know that's probably a pipe dream, but hey I can dream right? Otherwise I'd prefer us to allow Justin back and start him.

 

[fnordius]

I think it's logical to view the number of minutes you give younger players as a reflection of how much you're building for the future.

These are the number of minutes played by Kings who were 26 or younger. The '98-'99 season was adjusted to compensate for being 32 games short.

'98-'99: 12,192
'99-'00: 6,527
'00-'01: 8,164
'01-'02: 7,858
'02-'03: 6,086
'03-'04: 4,603
'04-'05: 1,839
'05-'06: 3,341
'06-'07: 5,482 (over half of which was Kevin Martin)

So '98-'01 looks like we did a great job rebuilding, then gave up on development and went into "win now" mode from '02-'06. Last year we developed the daylights out of Kevin Martin, but the youngsters still got much less time than they did when we were rising, rather than falling. If we want to improve, the kids should be getting at least 50% more PT than they did last year. If we've managed to rebuild, they should be getting double.

 

[Bricklayer]

I think it's logical to view the number of minutes you give younger players as a reflection of how much you're building for the future.

These are the number of minutes played by Kings who were 26 or younger. The '98-'99 season was adjusted to compensate for being 32 games short.

'98-'99: 12,192
'99-'00: 6,527
'00-'01: 8,164
'01-'02: 7,858
'02-'03: 6,086
'03-'04: 4,603
'04-'05: 1,839
'05-'06: 3,341
'06-'07: 5,482 (over half of which was Kevin Martin)

So '98-'01 looks like we did a great job rebuilding, then gave up on development and went into "win now" mode from '02-'06. Last year we developed the daylights out of Kevin Martin, but the youngsters still got much less time than they did when we were rising, rather than falling. If we want to improve, the kids should be getting at least 50% more PT than they did last year. If we've managed to rebuild, they should be getting double.

That's actually a nifty little way of looking at that. Thanks for the stats.

 

['89 Kings Fan]

at this point with NO takers on KT contract and just about anybody over 6'9 can fill his void fine from Justin, to Darrel, to DJ Mbenga. Why not just buy out this guy. He has nothing to offer.

I think I can make a case for keeping our fearsome foursome (Miller, Reef, KT and Mikki) until 09/10. Right now they all have two years on their contract after this year. Each year their value will go up as expiring contracts, see: Theo Ratliff.

Step 1: Get No 1. Pick in 08 Draft, Draft Derrick Rose

Step 2: Trade Bibby and Artest for Picks and Young Players.

Step 3: When the 09 offseason rolls around we will have Rose, Martin, Hawes, Douby, Francisco(If we keep him) and whoever we manage to draft in '08 and $30 Million in expiring contracts in the form of (Miller, Thomas, SAR and Mikki.) Hopefully then we can nab a star like a Keven Garnett with Picks and Expirings.

Of course this will require Petrie to stop giving Scrubs the MLE every year.

 

[Gary]

Brick,

Forgive me if I am wrong as I have not looked, but I think O'Bryant was drafted only a year ago. I mean, we haven't picked up the option on Douby yet have we? Or even Garcia who was drafted a year earlier have we? I am serious, I don't know . Give O'Bryant another year. Last year he spent most of the time in the NBAD League.

As for KT or Watkins.... You did make a good point Jer re: the future. If it were my choice I would buy KT out or tell him to go home, and collect the rest of his money while not playing another NBA game. But while he is here I just assume start him and keep him happy so he does not ruin what little chemistry we have.

Does he cause problems? Not sure, but we saw his numbers drop when he came off the bench. He got about the same amount of minutes yet he was about 50% of the player he was starting. Which wasn't much to begin with.

 

[dude12]

ISo other than Cisco I am not happy with the committment to youth. And I am not one to name call but I'm starting to think that our great Petrie isn't so great that just maybe he had a little luck fall his way for a couple offseasons. If you remember he was our GM before the Maloofs came and he didn't do anything to impress. Then he drafted JWill which any GM would have at that spot, Washington got tired of Webber's act and shipped him to us, and we finally got some cap space and signed Vlade to a big deal. Oh, and that also happened to be the year that Peja decided to come here.

Some things fell into place for him and he was definitely due for some luck. Now you're seeing the Petrie that we were used to seeing.

To say that any GM would have picked JWill 7th in the 98 draft is probably not true. JWill was suspended numerous times while in college and finally permanently suspended by Florida in his last year there. Petrie actually gambled on this pick at 7 and it turned out fairly well we know the story there.

I guess if you want to spin the Webber deal as luck for Petrie, you can, but all I know is Webber ended up in Sacramento and nowhere else, a fleecing of an organization is how I look at it.

He did sign Vlade and pick Peja...great moves to complete the team...but this has been gone over.

Check out Hedo Turkoglu's career minutes in the beginning. Averaged 17 and 24 minutes over his 1st 2 years. That's trying to develop a guy. 2000 draft pick.
2001- Gerald Wallace, buried on a playoff team
2002- Dan Dickau drafted and then traded
2003- no pick
2004- KMart, in his 2nd year had 1906 minutes in 70 games...a good amount of PT
2005- Cisco, about 1300 and 1400 minutes in 1st 2 years, a decent amount
2006- Douby, only 359 minutes 1st year but looking like he's going to get a significant anount of PT if he can avoid running into picks.
2007 - Hawes, I'm guessing he'll get his minutes when healthy

Add the FA's of Justin Williams and Watkins and these types of guys usually don't even make rosters let alone get some PT. It's not like these guys are 1st round picks. The fact that they are on the team period is some consession that they are willing to give a young guy a chance. After reading Theus' comments in the paper today, we might be seeing Watkins more and more.

 

[fnordius]

2001- Gerald Wallace, buried on a playoff team
2002- Dan Dickau drafted and then traded
2003- no pick
2004- KMart, in his 2nd year had 1906 minutes in 70 games...a good amount of PT

This is the period where we cannibalized our future. I can elaborate on these figures.
Bear in mind that a starter who avoids major injury can expect 2700-2800 minutes.

'02-'03: Gave Gerald Wallace 570 minutes.
'03-'04: Wallace gets 337 minutes.
'04-'05: unloaded Wallace, Gave Matt Barnes 715 minutes, Eddie House got 550, Kevin Martin got 455.
'05-'06: unloaded House and Barnes, KMart got 1913 (not planned, but due to Bonzi's injury), Garcia got 1301, Price got 150.
'06-'07: KMart 2818, Garcia 1408, Price 562, Douby 359, Justin 333.
'07-'08: let Price go.

So, basically, during '02-'05, Kevin Martin got 455 minutes, all other (slight) development during those 3 years was lost when we let the players go. Ronnie Price was more of the same. It's true that we didn't have much to work with, because GP had traded away a lot of draft picks: first rounders in '02 and '03, and second rounders in '03, '05, '06 and '07. Letting Wallace, Barnes, House and Price go doesn't look like a big investment in the future, either. For better or worse, we've acquired and developed Garcia and Martin in the last five and a half years, and drafted Hawes. Whether that's a good return on several FA signings, what should have been 10 draft picks, and 5 seasons of PT, is a matter of opinion, but I don't find it impressive.

 

[Cal-Kings]

I'd rather us try and showcase Kenny Thomas and just pray that maybe if we run every other play through him that just maybe he will have good enough numbers for us to be able to dump him for an expiring. I know that's probably a pipe dream, but hey I can dream right? Otherwise I'd prefer us to allow Justin back and start him.

Showcase Kenny doing what? Tossing up bricks wildly towards the hoop? Missing lay-ups?

Yeah, he'll grab a rebound here and there.

Maybe sitting him would showcase him better. Leave his skills a mystery.

 

[Kingster]

Starting a player implies giving him more than just minutes. It means giving them lots of minutes. Watkins had some great minutes tonight, but he's far too young and inexperienced to play more than 5-10 minutes in any game. People feel way too hopeful when a player gets some great minutes in a game and then all of a sudden he should start. Williams and Watkins are not starters...period. If they aren't sitting under the basket, then they are essentially useless on the offense. Not too mention that if Thomas and Reef don't play most of the time at the 4 then you're gonna have two veterans that are gonna show up to Arco and leave a big stinking **** on the front lawn for roughly 13 million a year.

No offense, but if Thomas and Miki are "sitting under the basket" they are useless. The best thing Petrie and Theus can do right now is do a Houdini act and have Thomas and Miki disappear. If SAR can walk, he should get 30+ minutes a game.

 

[kingsfan101]

Been mentioned in other threads that are several young 7'1" centers out there (DJ MBenga, Jackie Butler) that we have showed interest in in the past, and who are now free agents. Wouldn't it be a lovely thing to be able to bring tthem in for a low cost looksee? Nope. Sorry. Can't. We have Kenny Thomas! Woohoo! I'm still trying to figure out where/who Kenny's constituency is. Who is that likes him on the team? Not the fans. Not the GM. reggie's been blowing smoke, but I have a hard time seeing that beyond the New Mexico connection. So what makes KT stick beyond the $$? If that's all it is...

Nice points, and yes, the $$ are probably the only reason keeping KT around. See a minor problem in buying him out and picking up someone like Jackie instead.

Guys like Jackie and Mbenga have been cut for a reason. While picking them on the cheap might give help right now, since they are certain to be better than the excuse of a front line that we are throwing out right now, let's see what we hope to achieve by picking them up.

Let's assume that KT gives us a decent bargain for his buyout (unlikely, but let's assume a best case scenario). We sign one of these guys to a league minimum contract, since that is all we can offer. They shall accept it too, since not many teams can offer anything better, and with us, they are assured of playing time too. Given that they shall be playing for a contract, they might even play hard and well, and help us pull in a few lins.

What happens next year though? If they play well, they shall demand a part, if not whole of our MLE. The owners might balk at paying KT, as well as handing out MLE to the new guys. It shall also not be a good idea to sign any guys to MLE type contracts next year. So, most likely, they shall walk, offering us nothing more than a few lins for the current year.

On the upside, we do save some money that KT foregoes, but that is a very optimistic scenario. Meanwhile, we lose any flexibility of trading him.

Ron (if he doesn't opt out), and Bibby have expiring contracts next year. While it shall be tough to combine Bibby and KT's contracts, given their size, maybe, just maybe, someone shall take KT off our hands to get a shot at Ron.

 

[Kingster]

I think it's logical to view the number of minutes you give younger players as a reflection of how much you're building for the future.

These are the number of minutes played by Kings who were 26 or younger. The '98-'99 season was adjusted to compensate for being 32 games short.

'98-'99: 12,192
'99-'00: 6,527
'00-'01: 8,164
'01-'02: 7,858
'02-'03: 6,086
'03-'04: 4,603
'04-'05: 1,839
'05-'06: 3,341
'06-'07: 5,482 (over half of which was Kevin Martin)

So '98-'01 looks like we did a great job rebuilding, then gave up on development and went into "win now" mode from '02-'06. Last year we developed the daylights out of Kevin Martin, but the youngsters still got much less time than they did when we were rising, rather than falling. If we want to improve, the kids should be getting at least 50% more PT than they did last year. If we've managed to rebuild, they should be getting double.

Thanks for the work on that. It does put things in some perspective.

 

[Glenn]

Nice points, and yes, the $$ are probably the only reason keeping KT around. See a minor problem in buying him out and picking up someone like Jackie instead.

Guys like Jackie and Mbenga have been cut for a reason. While picking them on the cheap might give help right now, since they are certain to be better than the excuse of a front line that we are throwing out right now, let's see what we hope to achieve by picking them up.

Let's assume that KT gives us a decent bargain for his buyout (unlikely, but let's assume a best case scenario). We sign one of these guys to a league minimum contract, since that is all we can offer. They shall accept it too, since not many teams can offer anything better, and with us, they are assured of playing time too. Given that they shall be playing for a contract, they might even play hard and well, and help us pull in a few lins.

What happens next year though? If they play well, they shall demand a part, if not whole of our MLE. The owners might balk at paying KT, as well as handing out MLE to the new guys. It shall also not be a good idea to sign any guys to MLE type contracts next year. So, most likely, they shall walk, offering us nothing more than a few lins for the current year.

On the upside, we do save some money that KT foregoes, but that is a very optimistic scenario. Meanwhile, we lose any flexibility of trading him.

Ron (if he doesn't opt out), and Bibby have expiring contracts next year. While it shall be tough to combine Bibby and KT's contracts, given their size, maybe, just maybe, someone shall take KT off our hands to get a shot at Ron.

In this note is the reason for not buying out KT's contract. I'll present the argument in a different fashion. His presence now prevents us from signing free agents because he eats up cap space. Assuming a buy out is $24 mil (three year's salary), the cap space is STILL gone for the next three years. A buy out does not clear cap space and counts against the team for the number of years of the contract no matter if it is paid out in one year or 20.

A youngster or seasoned pro might accept a minimum contract (all we can offer now) but if he develops well and really benefits us - the purpose of the buy out - he will want a better contract next year and we will not have the cap space because we still have $8 mil of it chewed up by KT's buy out.

I'd rather have a POSSIBLY disgruntled KT sitting at the end of the bench available if some of our bigs develop health problems all at once WHICH IS LIKELY given the state of SAR and Hawes' knees and Miller's age.

 

[fnordius]

Well, you see, we are assuming that KT is willing to have his contract be bought out at less than 100% of full value. Nobody ever buys out a contract for 100%, because, as you say, it makes little sense to do so. So let's assume that he takes 75 cents on the dollar in return for getting the next 3 years off. That works out to about $1.8M in savings now, increasing to about $2.2M in 2 years. Justin will be costing us about $850K a year, for 2 years, so KT's buyout would allow us a couple more JW-level players, or, if we didn't have room on the roster, one player and some payroll relief. Or one JW-level player would would demand doubled pay next year, or whatever. In any event, we'd be getting something out of KT's cut of the payroll, which we aren't right now.

 

[Glenn]

Well, you see, we are assuming that KT is willing to have his contract be bought out at less than 100% of full value. Nobody ever buys out a contract for 100%, because, as you say, it makes little sense to do so.

And therefore KT won't be bought out. Do you think a 30 year old or whatever he is would settle for less? Assumptions are being made in all kinds of directions but usually to support one's own beliefs. If I were KT I wouldn't give up a penny. Would you?

A few million dollars buys a lot of donuts.

 

[fnordius]

If I had made $18M or so in the last few years, and could make another $16M by retiring at age 30, or $21M if I, instead, publicly disgraced myself for 3 years, I might well consider taking the lesser amount. How much money does one person need?