Rebuilding:Time and Opportunity Cost

[PacMan]

I know there are alot of Petrie's supporter here as well as people who don't really care much for our current rebuilding plan. So I like to ask you all what you think of our current rebuilding plan in comparison to a team like the lakers or the Heat.

You can say that Petrie is wise in not making a rash trade due to pressure and that he waits until the right deal come along. And while that maybe a great thing to do, it also means we're spending alot of times not doing anything and there's opportunity cost in that. It's like the saying: you cant win big unless you're willing to take a risk. Look at the lakers, sure...they were bonehead to trade Caron Butler for Kwame Brown. That was a risky decision and it fail, but its also kwame brown that got them Pau Gasol. It's the risk taking that got them to start rebuilding and return to the championship race before us since we're unwilling to take that big risk. I think Miami is on the same path to rebuilding: high risk and high reward. They got rid of Shaq's contract and will pretty much pick up a high draft pick to pair up with Dwade. When Jwill's contract expire they will have room to sign some strong FA and push them into the playoff race again. It's just like that they have win a championship with O'neal and rebuild faster than we can do anything.

Some of the posters have also brought up that we dont really know the inside working that petrie is doing and that he maybe trying hard to get some trades in but he cant. Well, I dont really buy that excuse. As with any jobs, people expects results. I dont get pay for "trying", I get pay for what I accomplish. It shouldnt be any different with Petrie. If he's as good as he is, then he should have gotten something working already.

 

[Kingfanpaul]

You think it's easy to trade our trash for gold? Not alot of people want ron artest and those who do are not offering much, bibby maybe but if we lose him who is our PG? Trade Brad and you get a team that looks like the one who played the sonics. Who here would actually wanna trade martin unless its for a pure superstar? What does that leave.......our trash. What team wants any of those players and is willing to give us something better. I like salmons but I dont think you could trade him for any player that is better than him.

It all goes back to the webber trade. Those "moveable pieces" were hardly moveable. It's just gonna take good ole Jeff a while to fix that mistake. I'm not worried I already see the team heading in a better direction.

 

[John Galt]

If Geoff does not take "best offer" for Artest by the deadline I will be very disappointed. I don't care if the Maloofs have to pay off Kenny's contract as the 13th man... getting rid of Artest before the deadline is the criteria I will judge Geoff by.

And I am one of the biggest Artest fans on this board.... but the time has simply come.

 

[fnordius]

So I like to ask you all what you think of our current rebuilding plan in comparison to a team like the lakers or the Heat.

As far as I know, we do not have a rebuilding plan, or any other plans, aside from getting an arena. Until I hear of some plans, I can't comment on their quality.

 

[kingsfan916]

lakers had Kobe heat had wade... so thats a real advantage

 

[beb0p]

Look at the lakers, sure...they were bonehead to trade Caron Butler for Kwame Brown. That was a risky decision and it fail, but its also kwame brown that got them Pau Gasol. It's the risk taking that got them to start rebuilding and return to the championship race before us since we're unwilling to take that big risk.

It was just blind luck couple with stupidity (by Memphis) that got Lakers Gasol, the Lakers cannot claim any credit on this. It's like if Toronto trade Chris Bosh to us in 2010 in exchange for KT's expiring contract. You can only file this under "who knew?".

Which brings us to the next point: don't buy out KT. If there's a lesson here, it's this: that $8 million expiring may net us an All-Star in 2010!

But seriously, GP did take risk. Artest, SAR, and the Webber to Philly trade are all risky moves. What we need now is a break. Not more risky moves.

 

[Circa_1985_Fan]

lakers had Kobe heat had wade... so thats a real advantage

Yeah, and those guys Riley and Jackson are kinda good, too....not to mention Sacramento isnt Miami or Los Angeles, we have no titles or history to boast about to potential free agents/perspective players wanted in trades. Whatever luster we had from the Webber/Vlade years has since worn off, and we're back to the Richmond/O.P. years now, unfortunately. We'll have to see what the heck Mr. Petrie wants to do from this point on.

 

[Sptsjunkie]

You can say that Petrie is wise in not making a rash trade due to pressure and that he waits until the right deal come along. And while that maybe a great thing to do, it also means we're spending alot of times not doing anything and there's opportunity cost in that. It's like the saying: you cant win big unless you're willing to take a risk. Look at the lakers, sure...they were bonehead to trade Caron Butler for Kwame Brown. That was a risky decision and it fail, but its also kwame brown that got them Pau Gasol. It's the risk taking that got them to start rebuilding and return to the championship race before us since we're unwilling to take that big risk. I think Miami is on the same path to rebuilding: high risk and high reward. They got rid of Shaq's contract and will pretty much pick up a high draft pick to pair up with Dwade. When Jwill's contract expire they will have room to sign some strong FA and push them into the playoff race again. It's just like that they have win a championship with O'neal and rebuild faster than we can do anything.

3 Problems with this:

1 - Caron for Kwame was a huge mistake. I guarentee that the Lakers could have still gotten Pau with Caron, Critterion and 2 1st round picks. If anything, they would have probably kept at least one first round pick and/or Critterion if they had Caron instead of Kwame.

2 - It is much more complex for us to open up salary cap space, because unlike the Lakers and Heat, who had their cap space tied up in two superstars, the Kings spent money on a number of very good players during our run. You can argue we got a couple players after the point where we could have/should have started rebuilding, but with guys like Artest, Bibby, Brad, and Kenny taking up so much space, trading one of them for expiring contracts still does not get us out of salary cap purgatory. Therefore, it makes more sense to try to hold out for some young parts and players whose contracts run out during our 2009-2010 seasons.

3 - As someone else pointed out - the Lakers and Heat still have a superstar on their roster. It's much easier to build a championship team around a superstar. The reason the Lakers could rebuild so quickly is that as the Shaq era ended they already had another superstar in his prime in Kobe. When Webber got too old for us, we had not such luxury to fall back on.

I understand being bold and taking risks, but making a trade for the sake of making a trade, is how I manage to rip people off in fantasy so much

 

[Vlade4GM]

It was just blind luck couple with stupidity (by Memphis) that got Lakers Gasol, the Lakers cannot claim any credit on this. It's like if Toronto trade Chris Bosh to us in 2010 in exchange for KT's expiring contract. You can only file this under "who knew?".

Which brings us to the next point: don't buy out KT. If there's a lesson here, it's this: that $8 million expiring may net us an All-Star in 2010!

But seriously, GP did take risk. Artest, SAR, and the Webber to Philly trade are all risky moves. What we need now is a break. Not more risky moves.

I wouldn't say the lakers were all luck in getting Gasol. Yea they're lucky they had the right expiring to offer Memphis and they're lucky Memphis is so desperate for immediate cap space, but they had a good young prospect in Crittenton that Memphis liked, they gave up 2 future first round picks, and Mitch totally bluffed Wallace into making the deal quick before any other team stepped in (Kwame+fillers for Ben Wallace). It was a combo of skill, talent, good timing, and luck.

 

[joemama]

lakers had Kobe heat had wade... so thats a real advantage

And now we got Martin.

 

[Spike]

While we do have Martin, he's "our" all-star. I don't think the rest of the NBA is putting him in the top tier with Kobe and Wade. Because of the cap issues, I'm afraid that Petrie will have to again build from within and allow some of the contracts to expire. I don't know that teams at the top of the draft order are looking for Artest/Bibby/Et Al, so unless they give up draft picks waaay down the line, we'll have extra picks at the lower end of the draft.

Better teams can offer expirings and youth, but not better draft picks.

Worse teams can (usually) offer higher picks, but they're also themselves rebuilding, so they don't want to send their young talent away.

There are exceptions to both of the above, but generally speaking, Petrie has a tough road ahead.

 

[Jerichoholic]

I don't have a problem with Petrie waiting for the right deal to come along...as long as it comes BEFORE the trading deadline. Perhaps more teams will be desperate at that point to make a move to keep up with the other teams in the West.

I will have a problem with Petrie however if he is too stubburn to make a move because he refuses to do anything without including Kenny Thomas. Nobody on this board wants him either but we have accepted the fact that basically a retired player that is owed over 20 million no team will want and we are stuck with him.

Ron needs to be moved before the deadline, even a draft pick is worth it because he is leaving after this year anyway and the team should start to get used to life without him. It would be nice to move Bibby too because he hasn't been the same for over 2 years and his value is dropping more every game. Although he actually will be a nice trade chip next year as he will be a 14 million expiring contract...although the Kings probably want to be the ones to get that off their books.

 

[Kingster]

I know there are alot of Petrie's supporter here as well as people who don't really care much for our current rebuilding plan. So I like to ask you all what you think of our current rebuilding plan in comparison to a team like the lakers or the Heat.

You can say that Petrie is wise in not making a rash trade due to pressure and that he waits until the right deal come along. And while that maybe a great thing to do, it also means we're spending alot of times not doing anything and there's opportunity cost in that.

I agree totally with the notion of opportunity cost. So far, the opportunity cost is two years of not rebuilding (unless one thinks Miki Moore is rebuilding),. Will it be three? If Petrie finally stops "waiting and seeing" and actually makes a deal with Artest and/or Bibby, all is forgiven. But if nothing gets done to finally rebuild, not refurbish, then Petrie should have a huge bull's-eye on his head. In todays desperate bidding war for talent in the West - Gasol, Shaq, Webber - it's very difficult for me to believe that Petrie doesn't have the opportunity to trade Artest for excellent young talent.

 

[VF21]

It's very difficult for me to believe that Petrie doesn't have the opportunity to trade Artest for excellent young talent.

Once again, I think people are assuming GMs throughout the league are deaf - and don't hear the ticking. Or can overlook the downside of Ron Artest. He's damaged goods, folks. If he weren't, NO ONE would be talking about getting rid of him because of the good side.

You can try and spin it any way you like but having Ron Artest on your team is a risk I doubt even Lloyd's of London would cover.

 

[kyo2002]

At this point I don't see a lot of trade value for the Kings. Kings need to get rid of the veterans but they aren't nearly good enough to exchange for a quality prospect. Artest is the best trade bait, but his one accomplishment in Sacramento is the validation of all GMs' fears.

Perhaps it is time to trade for picks instead of players, meaning the Kings will have to develop their young players and get a magic lottery ball. Kings need to hire mentors and have players watch 3 hours of tape daily like what the Lakers are doing with Bynum. I know Martin watched a few Richard Hamilton tapes but that was under Princeton offense his rookie year. Hire me to teach Justin Williams the dreamshake Joe and Gavin!

 

[beb0p]

I wouldn't say the lakers were all luck in getting Gasol. Yea they're lucky they had the right expiring to offer Memphis and they're lucky Memphis is so desperate for immediate cap space, but they had a good young prospect in Crittenton that Memphis liked, they gave up 2 future first round picks, and Mitch totally bluffed Wallace into making the deal quick before any other team stepped in (Kwame+fillers for Ben Wallace). It was a combo of skill, talent, good timing, and luck.

Mitch didn't bluff anyone into making a quick deal, according to the Lakers, they were discussing this trade for over a year! The only reason Memphis accepted is because the Grizz owner wants to bail out of the NBA. The Bulls did stepped in and they did made an offer but they didn't have the expiring.

In fact, if Michael Heisley had decided to bail one year earlier, Gasol would be a Bull.

 

[Vlade4GM]

Mitch didn't bluff anyone into making a quick deal, according to the Lakers, they were discussing this trade for over a year! The only reason Memphis accepted is because the Grizz owner wants to bail out of the NBA. The Bulls did stepped in and they did made an offer but they didn't have the expiring.

In fact, if Michael Heisley had decided to bail one year earlier, Gasol would be a Bull.

Recent discussions were only a week or two old and Wallace himself admitted that he wanted to make the deal before the lakers potentially sent Kwame and a filler to the bulls for ben wallace (which the lakers had never any intention of doing, but they got the griz to believe they did). That's what they call a bluff.

 

[CruzDude]

The Kings are not so much "rebuilding" as trying to find the best combos for what they have. We already know what Salmons and Beno can do replacing Artest and Bibby for considerable time. We know what Cisco and Hawes bring off the bench and we're starting to see what Douby brings.

With Kevin as our "star" to build around now Kings need 1-2 other star like players to be the real core. Brad was at the "star" level last week before kitchen duties slowed him down. So is Salmons that 3rd "star" the Kings need? or must it be by trade?

No, we will not get equal value for either Artest nor Bibby. Kings are going to have to take serviceable backups, or maybe a good PF and draft choices and get cap relief for a bigger move this summer.

If the Kings get to the playoffs by winning big the last 20-25 games, they will be scary in the playoffs. I think the Spurs and Mavs are on their last "premier team" legs and Phoenix is one year away from joining them. The Hornets, Jazz, and maybe the sonics are on their way up. When portland gets Oden next year they too will be an "upper" team. That leaves the Kings in the middle. So the last 20 games of the year become critical to defining their "growing" vs. "rebuilding" and give GP what he needs to step up one more level.

 

[Kingster]

Once again, I think people are assuming GMs throughout the league are deaf - and don't hear the ticking. Or can overlook the downside of Ron Artest. He's damaged goods, folks. If he weren't, NO ONE would be talking about getting rid of him because of the good side.

You can try and spin it any way you like but having Ron Artest on your team is a risk I doubt even Lloyd's of London would cover.

You don't have to remind me of the risky nature of Artest. I've been very consistent in pointing out the depreciation in Artest's value because of his history and risk profile. That said, when you combine the desperation of the western teams with the seduction of Artest, that can be a very powerful push-pull that leads a GM to roll the dice, at least for the rest of the season. I find it very hard to believe that some team with a redundant athletic youngin on their team (Golden State & the Bulls, for example), wouldn't make the trade for Artest in order to insure getting into the playoffs. What I think is even more probable is that Petrie reflects Jerry Reynold's philosophy - he doesn't want the raw athletic young talent. He wants to get a VETERAN player with not as much upside (can you say another Miki Moore?) who can give the fans the enticement of a possibility of getting into the playoffs now, instead of building a program for the future. I sure hope I'm wrong....

 

[Smills91]

It was just blind luck couple with stupidity (by Memphis) that got Lakers Gasol, the Lakers cannot claim any credit on this. It's like if Toronto trade Chris Bosh to us in 2010 in exchange for KT's expiring contract. You can only file this under "who knew?".

Which brings us to the next point: don't buy out KT. If there's a lesson here, it's this: that $8 million expiring may net us an All-Star in 2010!

But seriously, GP did take risk. Artest, SAR, and the Webber to Philly trade are all risky moves. What we need now is a break. Not more risky moves.

AMEN!