Rebuilding Around Cousins

[Sac.Kings]

You are the second poster on here that has mentioned this. I'm not sure where you are drawing this conclusion from...they have not shown in the slightest that they dislike each other. Even if they don't LOVE each other, they play well together, which essentially, is all that matters so long as you get wins out of it.

You can google it, there is evidence that something is there. Both have said they have to get over their differences, but this has happened repeatedly. There is definitely smoke there, but how severe it is no one really knows. All I know is that the Wizards have trouble winning as is and really should be winning more than they are, being in the East. I'm not saying its probable, but if there is a chance to get a player like Wall, I am all for it.

 

[kingsboi]

You can google it, there is evidence that something is there. Both have said they have to get over their differences, but this has happened repeatedly. There is definitely smoke there, but how severe it is no one really knows. All I know is that the Wizards have trouble winning as is and really should be winning more than they are, being in the East. I'm not saying its probable, but if there is a chance to get a player like Wall, I am all for it.

I don't see any evidence. I have no use for Google when I watch the Wizards on a consistent basis. I see no issues among the two, on the court or off the court. It's media speculating and fans adding to it just because Wall mentioned something about Beal's contract extension.

 

[Bricklayer]

Anyone who has been paying attention to the draft this year isn't excited about losing that pick. The top 10 this year could easily be as good as the top 5 of the last 5 drafts so we're looking at the possibility of drafting our second best player. With Rudy Gay leaving at the end of the season, that's a big deal for our future. I'll wait and see how this whole thing plays out. Nobody else in the West is stepping up and threatening for that #8 spot yet so we may just back into it after all. Personally I want to see more of a coherent long-term plan in place than simply renting mid-tier vets every year and hoping for the best. The actual contenders have a lot more than just 1 star on their roster and right now I don't see how we plan to compete on that level. Toeing. 500 might be enough to get us a playoff spot this year but some of the teams below us are cultivating enough young talent to blow by us in the near future if we can't take a leap forward ourselves and that puts us in perpetual limbo with Denver and New Orleans.

I think the limbo we would be aiming for would be that of Houston or Orlando-Dwight. Get your star, get the right style and coach, the right roleplayers, and perennially be in the picture/one move from mattering.

We missed our window on the other stuff, that's what years of drafting Jimmer over Kawhi, Rob over Lillard etc. will do to you. So now we do the other. Work our way into the picture, wait for these untouchable superpowers to slowly deteriorate with a little help from the new CBA. Aim to take a sub-alltime team run at things like Hakeem did in Houston or Ewing did in New York.

 

[Section 101]

So, to play devils advocate here, is the goal to make money, or is the goal to build a championship team. Not a team to make the eighth spot, and likely lose four straight to the Warriors, but a team that will actually compete for the western division championship and then the NBA championship? And if the goal is a championship, then how does losing our first round pick this year in the best draft in 10 to 15 years, help us? Do we subscribe to be the new Atlanta Hawks, or the Warriors?

It's this "We have to win now" approach that's gotten us into this mess in the first place. And for the most part, it's been about money. The team should have been torn apart long ago when Webb had the knee injury and Vlade's age had caught up to him. But the Maloof's were broke, and needed butts in the seats, so year after year, they tried to create an image of a team that was going to win again. There was a brief moment when the right moves could have propelled us into the next generation of up and coming teams, but instead of adding a Klay Thompson, a Kahwi Leonard, or a Damian Lillard, we added a Jimmer Fredette and a Thomas Robinson. Because they had name recognition, and would put butts in the seats.

The team has made a lot of mistakes, and most of them were because of money. I happen to agree with twslam07 on this point. The goal of the team right now may be to make the playoffs, but that goal may not necessarily be the best thing for the long range success of the team. Can anyone look at the makeup of this team, and tell me that their excited for the future of the franchise. Collison, Gay, Casspi, and McLemore are all probably gone at years end. Maybe Lawson as well. That's five of the 15 players on the roster. There's also a good chance we let Afflalo walk out the door. Barnes is going to be a thousand years old, Willie still needs seasoning, and Koufos is no more than a solid backup center.

Essentially, we could be left without a PG and huge holes at the SG and SF positions. Were already doing PF by committee. Right now, this team is truly a team where the sum of the parts is greater than the whole. And that's commendable, but it doesn't do a damm thing for the future of the team. So you'll excuse me if I don't get all that excited about grabbing the eighth spot in the playoffs. Now if someone will show me how were going to do both, make the playoffs, and build a championship team, then I'm on board. If we keep putting off the inevitable, at some point the chickens will come home to roost.

You comparing apples and oranges. Nobody is saying the team is broke and needs salary dumps and 3 mil trade exemptions. But remember the salary cap goes up big next year. The team will need money for contracts and a potential Cuz extension. Not to mention they are still paying Crazy George.

Another thing to think about. Less fans = Less parking revenue. What do you think will happen if parking revenue doesn't meet expectations? So yes making money and keep fans in the seats is huge right now. Where talking about the direction of the team and goals not salary dumps for savings.

 

[twslam07]

If the decision has been made to do everything we can to make the playoffs and compete now, here's a potential scenario:

MIA Gets: Goran Dragic & James Johnson
SAC Gets: Rudy Gay & Darren Collison
Why? They free up cap space to have the potential to lure potential FAs next year

DAL Gets: Arron Afflalo & Ben McLemore
SAC Gets: Wes Matthews & Devin Harris
Why? They free up cap space for a team that should be rebuilding soon

DEN Gets: Wilson Chandler
SAC Gets: Matt Barnes & Willie Cauley-Stein
Why? They pick up a young asset for their up and coming team while still having Gallinari being able to play SF

NOP Gets: Anthony Tolliver
SAC Gets: Solomon Hill
Why? They free up cap space for a player who has under performed for them giving them another shot to retool around Davis next offseason.


Kings New Roster
PG - Dragic / Lawson / Harris
SG - Matthews / Temple / Richardson
SF - Hill / Casspi
PF - Chandler / Johnson / Labissiere
C - Cousins / Koufos / Papagiannis

It's a lot of turnover, but it at least allows the Kings to maintain the same core for many years in order for them to start building chemistry (unlike this year when Collison, Lawson, Afflalo, McLemore, Gay, Casspi, Barnes, & Tolliver could all be on another team next year).

 

[hrdboild]

You comparing apples and oranges. Nobody is saying the team is broke and needs salary dumps and 3 mil trade exemptions. But remember the salary cap goes up big next year. The team will need money for contracts and a potential Cuz extension. Not to mention they are still paying Crazy George.

Another thing to think about. Less fans = Less parking revenue. What do you think will happen if parking revenue doesn't meet expectations? So yes making money and keep fans in the seats is huge right now. Where talking about the direction of the team and goals not salary dumps for savings.

We're still below .500 now and fans are coming to the games. Every year there's this same panic about how we need to make this playoffs or the whole ship goes down. It's nonsense. What the front office needs to do is put a winning team on the floor. Period. Ticket sales will take care of themselves if you can accomplish that. What good is it keeping a mediocre team together for fear of losing fans? We're about as good as we can be with this group right now. The only reason we're at all close to a playoff spot is because DeMarcus has been a top 5 player so far. Most of this "with us or against us" hyperbole is rhetorical nonsense. We all have the same goal. Imagine how good we could be if we actually had some real talent next to Boogie right now?

Let me review what we know:

Sacramento has never lured a star player to come here with cap space before.

Draft picks are basically useless if you don't have a quality scouting department capable of using them properly.

DeMarcus is going to cost us at least $30 million a year to re-sign and maybe as much as $40 million a year. We should already be planning our salary cap with that in mind.

Without a legit second All-Star we won't get homecourt advantage in the playoffs and it'll be very difficult to advance past the first round.

I think that makes the next step pretty damn clear. We need to take every asset we have and put it into the pot to come up with a second All-Star. My plan was to target players who will be All-Stars in the future. We could also try to swoop on another team's disgruntled star but without multiple picks to offer or exciting young talent that seems unlikely to me. Rudy Gay is close but he's not it and he's not a long-term option anyway. The draft is as good this year as it ever is but we need to be pretty bad to keep a top 10 pick. You figure there are 30 teams in the league and maybe about 40 players who can be considered All-Stars and it becomes pretty clear why teams go 30 years or more without ever having a real shot at a championship. Are we one of those teams that's just happy to be selling tickets and making money or are we actually going to go for it?

It's a real gut check. Players get paid either way. Vlade and his staff are under contract too. Vivek is going to make money on his investment regardless. The arena is eventually going to pay for itself in ticket sales, concessions, merchandise. The fans? We've been watching a crapty product for years, why stop now when we actually have a must see superstar on the team? None of this actually matters if the goal is to run a successful NBA franchise and sell the fans just enough hope to keep them coming back year to year.

So what's the problem then?

I guess the problem is actually me... I'm not happy with mediocre, complacent, conservative, timid, boring decision-making. I'm not happy with "winning would be nice, but we don't want to risk spending that much on players". I'd like to think Vlade is out there leading the charge, being bold, being proactive and making things happen but I just don't know. All I see are the deals that happen and the long periods in between where nothing happens. I don't write these threads because I expect these trades to actually happen though. I write them because the Kings team I see when I close my eyes is the cream of the crop, the toast of the league, the head of the class and it drives me crazy that the Kings team I see when I open my eyes again is the same old dysfunctional mess of a franchise that's so afraid to take chances that they never do much of anything at all.

Once upon a time Geoff Petrie decided to take some big chances... On a foreign sharpshooter no one else had heard of. On a big-time star with a bad attitude who couldn't stay out of trouble off the court. On a reckless hothead who got kicked off his college team for smoking too much pot. Any one of those decisions was questionable on its own terms but taken together? Lunacy! Irresponsible! It easily could have backfired but it didn't and the result was magical. That's the kind of vision we need now. My plan may have nothing to do with it but please do something. Don't sit on your hands and hope coal is going to transform itself into gold all on its own. That's true madness.

 

[Section 101]

We're still below .500 now and fans are coming to the games. Every year there's this same panic about how we need to make this playoffs or the whole ship goes down. It's nonsense. What the front office needs to do is put a winning team on the floor. Period. Ticket sales will take care of themselves if you can accomplish that. What good is it keeping a mediocre team together for fear of losing fans? We're about as good as we can be with this group right now. The only reason we're at all close to a playoff spot is because DeMarcus has been a top 5 player so far. Most of this "with us or against us" hyperbole is rhetorical nonsense. We all have the same goal. Imagine how good we could be if we actually had some real talent next to Boogie right now?

Let me review what we know:

Sacramento has never lured a star player to come here with cap space before.

Draft picks are basically useless if you don't have a quality scouting department capable of using them properly.

DeMarcus is going to cost us at least $30 million a year to re-sign and maybe as much as $40 million a year. We should already be planning our salary cap with that in mind.

Without a legit second All-Star we won't get homecourt advantage in the playoffs and it'll be very difficult to advance past the first round.

I think that makes the next step pretty damn clear. We need to take every asset we have and put it into the pot to come up with a second All-Star. My plan was to target players who will be All-Stars in the future. We could also try to swoop on another team's disgruntled star but without multiple picks to offer or exciting young talent that seems unlikely to me. Rudy Gay is close but he's not it and he's not a long-term option anyway. The draft is as good this year as it ever is but we need to be pretty bad to keep a top 10 pick. You figure there are 30 teams in the league and maybe about 40 players who can be considered All-Stars and it becomes pretty clear why teams go 30 years or more without ever having a real shot at a championship. Are we one of those teams that's just happy to be selling tickets and making money or are we actually going to go for it?

It's a real gut check. Players get paid either way. Vlade and his staff are under contract too. Vivek is going to make money on his investment regardless. The arena is eventually going to pay for itself in ticket sales, concessions, merchandise. The fans? We've been watching a poopooty product for years, why stop now when we actually have a must see superstar on the team? None of this actually matters if the goal is to run a successful NBA franchise and sell the fans just enough hope to keep them coming back year to year.

So what's the problem then?

I guess the problem is actually me... I'm not happy with mediocre, complacent, conservative, timid, boring decision-making. I'm not happy with "winning would be nice, but we don't want to risk spending that much on players". I'd like to think Vlade is out there leading the charge, being bold, being proactive and making things happen but I just don't know. All I see are the deals that happen and the long periods in between where nothing happens. I don't write these threads because I expect these trades to actually happen though. I write them because the Kings team I see when I close my eyes is the cream of the crop, the toast of the league, the head of the class and it drives me crazy that the Kings team I see when I open my eyes again is the same old dysfunctional mess of a franchise that's so afraid to take chances that they never do much of anything at all.

Once upon a time Geoff Petrie decided to take some big chances... On a foreign sharpshooter no one else had heard of. On a big-time star with a bad attitude who couldn't stay out of trouble off the court. On a reckless hothead who got kicked off his college team for smoking too much pot. Any one of those decisions was questionable on its own terms but taken together? Lunacy! Irresponsible! It easily could have backfired but it didn't and the result was magical. That's the kind of vision we need now. My plan may have nothing to do with it but please do something. Don't sit on your hands and hope coal is going to transform itself into gold all on its own. That's true madness.

Fans came back for the arena. It's here now and ticket costs went up 35% with it. The shine is off now. Many fans have already indicated they arent renewing. They can get single game tickets easy enough and most likely at a discount. No need for season tickets if there arent any playoffs.

 

[bajaden]

You comparing apples and oranges. Nobody is saying the team is broke and needs salary dumps and 3 mil trade exemptions. But remember the salary cap goes up big next year. The team will need money for contracts and a potential Cuz extension. Not to mention they are still paying Crazy George.

Another thing to think about. Less fans = Less parking revenue. What do you think will happen if parking revenue doesn't meet expectations? So yes making money and keep fans in the seats is huge right now. Where talking about the direction of the team and goals not salary dumps for savings.

You've miss my point entirely, and I'm tired of explaining it, so I'll leave it at that. Sad!

 

[bajaden]

We're still below .500 now and fans are coming to the games. Every year there's this same panic about how we need to make this playoffs or the whole ship goes down. It's nonsense. What the front office needs to do is put a winning team on the floor. Period. Ticket sales will take care of themselves if you can accomplish that. What good is it keeping a mediocre team together for fear of losing fans? We're about as good as we can be with this group right now. The only reason we're at all close to a playoff spot is because DeMarcus has been a top 5 player so far. Most of this "with us or against us" hyperbole is rhetorical nonsense. We all have the same goal. Imagine how good we could be if we actually had some real talent next to Boogie right now?

Let me review what we know:

Sacramento has never lured a star player to come here with cap space before.

Draft picks are basically useless if you don't have a quality scouting department capable of using them properly.

DeMarcus is going to cost us at least $30 million a year to re-sign and maybe as much as $40 million a year. We should already be planning our salary cap with that in mind.

Without a legit second All-Star we won't get homecourt advantage in the playoffs and it'll be very difficult to advance past the first round.

I think that makes the next step pretty damn clear. We need to take every asset we have and put it into the pot to come up with a second All-Star. My plan was to target players who will be All-Stars in the future. We could also try to swoop on another team's disgruntled star but without multiple picks to offer or exciting young talent that seems unlikely to me. Rudy Gay is close but he's not it and he's not a long-term option anyway. The draft is as good this year as it ever is but we need to be pretty bad to keep a top 10 pick. You figure there are 30 teams in the league and maybe about 40 players who can be considered All-Stars and it becomes pretty clear why teams go 30 years or more without ever having a real shot at a championship. Are we one of those teams that's just happy to be selling tickets and making money or are we actually going to go for it?

It's a real gut check. Players get paid either way. Vlade and his staff are under contract too. Vivek is going to make money on his investment regardless. The arena is eventually going to pay for itself in ticket sales, concessions, merchandise. The fans? We've been watching a poopooty product for years, why stop now when we actually have a must see superstar on the team? None of this actually matters if the goal is to run a successful NBA franchise and sell the fans just enough hope to keep them coming back year to year.

So what's the problem then?

I guess the problem is actually me... I'm not happy with mediocre, complacent, conservative, timid, boring decision-making. I'm not happy with "winning would be nice, but we don't want to risk spending that much on players". I'd like to think Vlade is out there leading the charge, being bold, being proactive and making things happen but I just don't know. All I see are the deals that happen and the long periods in between where nothing happens. I don't write these threads because I expect these trades to actually happen though. I write them because the Kings team I see when I close my eyes is the cream of the crop, the toast of the league, the head of the class and it drives me crazy that the Kings team I see when I open my eyes again is the same old dysfunctional mess of a franchise that's so afraid to take chances that they never do much of anything at all.

Once upon a time Geoff Petrie decided to take some big chances... On a foreign sharpshooter no one else had heard of. On a big-time star with a bad attitude who couldn't stay out of trouble off the court. On a reckless hothead who got kicked off his college team for smoking too much pot. Any one of those decisions was questionable on its own terms but taken together? Lunacy! Irresponsible! It easily could have backfired but it didn't and the result was magical. That's the kind of vision we need now. My plan may have nothing to do with it but please do something. Don't sit on your hands and hope coal is going to transform itself into gold all on its own. That's true madness.

Just to nit pick a bit, coal turns into diamonds, not gold, but what the hey, maybe there's a process out there that I don't know about. I don't agree with everything you wrote, but I do agree with the last paragraph completely. Rightly or wrongly, the Kings appear to be doing exactly what you don't want them to do, sit on their hands and hope everything magically fixes itself. The Kings organization is divided into separate parts that have to work together. The team side, and the business side.

Unfortunately they don't always see eye to eye. My question is, how much influence does the business side of the Kings organization have on the decisions of the team side. I ask, because I know that the Kings drafted Jimmer Fredette because of his name recognition. The Maloofs wanted to put butts in the seats. They needed revenue, and they believed that Jimmer would help with selling season tickets. Most people weren't familiar with Kawhi Leonard. Even though Petrie and his entire scouting staff knew Leonard was the better prospect. I would hope that Vlade and company are free to make decisions based on what's best for the long term success of the team, and not how much revenue is brought in short term.

I realize it's not my money, and it's easy for me to say, just ignore the fact that it's not paying for itself right now. That's why it nice to have owners like Mark Cuban, a billionaire who can absorb those kind of losses short term, and not let it influence his decision making. But what do I know? Maybe everything is going to plan and all we need do is remain patient. I really, really want to believe that. I'm trying, I really am. It's hard not to let past history corrupt my thoughts. But then, maybe they need corrupting.

 

[bajaden]

If the decision has been made to do everything we can to make the playoffs and compete now, here's a potential scenario:

MIA Gets: Goran Dragic & James Johnson
SAC Gets: Rudy Gay & Darren Collison
Why? They free up cap space to have the potential to lure potential FAs next year

DAL Gets: Arron Afflalo & Ben McLemore
SAC Gets: Wes Matthews & Devin Harris
Why? They free up cap space for a team that should be rebuilding soon

DEN Gets: Wilson Chandler
SAC Gets: Matt Barnes & Willie Cauley-Stein
Why? They pick up a young asset for their up and coming team while still having Gallinari being able to play SF

NOP Gets: Anthony Tolliver
SAC Gets: Solomon Hill
Why? They free up cap space for a player who has under performed for them giving them another shot to retool around Davis next offseason.


Kings New Roster
PG - Dragic / Lawson / Harris
SG - Matthews / Temple / Richardson
SF - Hill / Casspi
PF - Chandler / Johnson / Labissiere
C - Cousins / Koufos / Papagiannis

It's a lot of turnover, but it at least allows the Kings to maintain the same core for many years in order for them to start building chemistry (unlike this year when Collison, Lawson, Afflalo, McLemore, Gay, Casspi, Barnes, & Tolliver could all be on another team next year).

I have no problem with your first trade. Get it done! Your second trade however is flawed. First, Harris is on a team option for next season, so the Mav's don't have to trade him to acquire cap space. Second, Dallas will have about 46 mil in cap space without making any trades, so no need. Third, Dallas planes to build around Barnes and Mathews, so I doubt they have any intention of trading either.

As to the final deal, why would we trade a contract that's easy to get out of, for a higher contract that has 3 more years left on it? Especially, when, as you said, that player is underachieving. Hill has never been a good three point shooter, and the Kings need someone that can hit a three. Hill is not that person. If you wanted to bring in a player with one year left to give him a try, I could see it. But we would be paying him over 12 mil a year for the next three years. Sorry, I don't have the same love for Hill you do.

 

[Joshoua]

When Phoenix drafts one of the pgs in the draft we call them up and give them what they want for Bledsoe.

 

[twslam07]

I have no problem with your first trade. Get it done! Your second trade however is flawed. First, Harris is on a team option for next season, so the Mav's don't have to trade him to acquire cap space. Second, Dallas will have about 46 mil in cap space without making any trades, so no need. Third, Dallas planes to build around Barnes and Mathews, so I doubt they have any intention of trading either.

Harris is not the salary dump I am referencing. Matthews is. Harris is of no use to a team that will be at the bottom in the west. Harris at least would give us a 3rd PG for insurance purposes.

Dallas will have $46 mil in cap space next year? I have them at $14.4 mil if they don't pick up Harris' option and that's not even including the cap hold on their 2017 1st round pick, so you're probably looking at somewhere between $9-12 mil depending on where that pick lands. Now if Nowitzki retires, that would give them about $34.4-37.4 mil in cap space. Where are you getting the $46 mil from (to my knowledge, the latest projection of the 2017-18 salary cap was $102 mil)?

Either way, $34-$37 mil in cap space is still a lot. It gives them the ability to bring aboard a max player, but moving Matthews for cap space would give them approximately $50.8-53.8 mil in cap space. That gives them the ability to sign two really good pieces in the offseason.

Where did you here that they plan to build around Matthews? I haven't seen anything. I'm not saying you're wrong, but just curious where you saw that.

Building around a 25 year old SF in Barnes makes sense. Building around a 31 year old Matthews when you're rebuilding doesn't. With that cap space, they could be looking at picking up 2-3 players like Jrue Holiday, Jeff Teague, KCP, Andre Roberson, Gordon Hayward, Otto Porter, Serge Ibaka, Patrick Patterson, Nikola Mirotic, Nerlens Noel, Alex Len, & Kelly Olynyk. Then you add in a Fultz/Smith/Ball/Monk/Jackson and you could have a young core with a bright future.

As to the final deal, why would we trade a contract that's easy to get out of, for a higher contract that has 3 more years left on it? Especially, when, as you said, that player is underachieving. Hill has never been a good three point shooter, and the Kings need someone that can hit a three. Hill is not that person. If you wanted to bring in a player with one year left to give him a try, I could see it. But we would be paying him over 12 mil a year for the next three years. Sorry, I don't have the same love for Hill you do.

I tend to like Hill more than most, so I can see why some may be hesitant. However, $12 mil is only ~10% of the payroll nowadays. That's what low level starter/1st rotation bench players are going to be making nowadays.

The fact of the matter is that Hill is still young (25) and is going to be entering his prime years pretty soon. He had a good season last year:

Per36 Stats:
54% TS% / 45% FG% / 32% 3PT% / 86% FT / 10.2 PPG / 6.9 RPG / 2.4 APG / 1.5 SPG / 0.5 BPG / 1.4 TOPG

Advanced Stats:
RAPM = +1.99 (45th in the league)
RPM = +0.14 (135th in the league; 25th among SFs)
On/Off = +2.8

In the playoffs last year, he did even better:

Per36 Stats:
71% TS% / 45% FG% / 58% 3PT% / 94% FT / 9.8 PPG / 5.1 RPG / 1.5 APG / 0.4 SPG / 0.0 BPG / 0.5 TOPG

Advanced Stats:
On/Off = +8.9


I'll admit, he is a buy low candidate right now, and if you're buying low, they typically aren't playing well at the moment. The trick is to see through it and find these diamonds in the rough. Hill could be one of these guys. He's obviously streaky with his shot, but at least we know he can bring it defensively when it's not on, and a defensive specialist for $11 mil under the new CBA is not a bad thing to have.

The hope is that he continues to work on his shot and become more consistent with it because if he does that, his combination of defense and spacing will be invaluable. But in the meantime, park his butt in the corner! His corner 3PT shooting is actually pretty good (2014-15: 38%, 2015-16: 44%, 2016-17: 37%). He's also shooting 38% overall from 3 this month. He's been a slow starter for most of his career, so it might be a good opportunity to take advantage of that.

Not to mention, the Pelicans didn't have many offensive options when Holiday & Evans were out. Hill is never going to be a focal point on offense, so it wasn't too surprising to see his efficiency improve once Holiday came back.

Bringing someone here on a 1 year deal is exactly the type of move we shouldn't be making. We already have our issues with FA, finding someone who works with our team but is on a 1 year deal will ultimately end up in a tease as that player could easily walk. Not to mention, you're potentially just running the risk of having to bring in a replacement and wait for him to learn the system and develop chemistry.

Taking a calculated risk on a player who's contract is on par with a low level starter/1st rotation bench player for multiple years, a player who has already shown he can be a positive impact player on a team, a player who plays his best ball as the season progresses, a player who is only 25, a player who can knock down corner 3s, & a player who, if he never becomes a consistent 3pt shooter all around the arc, would still be useful as a defensive specialist is the type of calculated risk I would like to see the Kings take.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

Dallas will have $46 mil in cap space next year? I have them at $14.4 mil if they don't pick up Harris' option and that's not even including the cap hold on their 2017 1st round pick, so you're probably looking at somewhere between $9-12 mil depending on where that pick lands. Now if Nowitzki retires, that would give them about $34.4-37.4 mil in cap space. Where are you getting the $46 mil from (to my knowledge, the latest projection of the 2017-18 salary cap was $102 mil)?

Nowitzki's contract next year is a team option, so I think that's where the large potential amount of cap space is coming from.

 

[twslam07]

Nowitzki's contract next year is a team option, so I think that's where the large potential amount of cap space is coming from.

Agreed, but it's not the $46 mil as Bajaden first referenced.

Also, do you see Cuban saying goodbye to Nowitzki if he wants to be there? I don't. It's far more likely that either he retires, they pick up the team option, or they agree to sign him to a lesser contract.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

Agreed, but it's not the $46 mil as Bajaden first referenced.

Also, do you see Cuban saying goodbye to Nowitzki if he wants to be there? I don't. It's far more likely that either he retires, they pick up the team option, or they agree to sign him to a lesser contract.

It's close - more like $41M at best with a $102M cap. I suspect that Baja may have used a different cap number and/or not realized that some of Harris' contract is guaranteed next year.

It's early in the season and he's been hurt, but Dirk is looking maybe kinda done. I would be unsurprised if Cuban gave him that retirement nudge. And if they signed him to a lesser contract, it might well be closer to "whatever Dallas has left over" and thus giving Dallas effectively the ability to use their cap space however they need.

 

[bajaden]

It's close - more like $41M at best with a $102M cap. I suspect that Baja may have used a different cap number and/or not realized that some of Harris' contract is guaranteed next year.

It's early in the season and he's been hurt, but Dirk is looking maybe kinda done. I would be unsurprised if Cuban gave him that retirement nudge. And if they signed him to a lesser contract, it might well be closer to "whatever Dallas has left over" and thus giving Dallas effectively the ability to use their cap space however they need.

Dirk has already implied that he's going to retire, and he probably should. So I'm assuming that he will. Cuban has already promised Dirk a spot in the organization if he wants it. Read the Dallas sport pages and Dirks retirement has been referenced many times. Your right, I didn't know that part of Harris contract was guaranteed. Plus, I went with a cap of 103 mil, but it might be 102. Could be a tad more too by the time they get is set next July.

The site I went to had Dallas with $58,511,054.00 in committed salaries next year, not counting Dirk's and Harris. That would give them $43,488,946.00 in capspace with the cap being at 102 mil. Take away whatever money that's partially guaranteed to Harris, and that's what they should have in cap space.

I don't think it's reasonable to just make up a scenario where Dallas wants to dump one of their best players. Mathews is the teams best three point shooter, and one of it's best defenders. He just turned 30 years old. Why in god's name would Dallas want to dump him?

 

[Capt. Factorial]

I don't think it's reasonable to just make up a scenario where Dallas wants to dump one of their best players. Mathews is the teams best three point shooter, and one of it's best defenders. He just turned 30 years old. Why in god's name would Dallas want to dump him?

Yeah, I'm not sure that Dallas would salary dump Wes Matthews, but on top of that I'm not sure that Matthews is a guy we ought to consider going after. He'd be a two-year commitment going forward, and he's going to take up something like 16-17% of the salary cap. Given that we're hoping (in the rebuild-around-Cousins scenario) to give Cuz the max (35% of the cap) extension, that's over half of your salary cap on two players. Now, I don't think that's necessarily a problem except for this: outside of C, the SG is the position we least need to fill right now. Sure, Vlade did go after Matthews unsuccessfully in the 2015 offseason, but since then we've made a lot of moves that effectively make going after a SG unnecessary. We have Temple for another two years, we have Malachi for another three years, and we have the exclusive right to sign Bogdanovic (which most folks around here believe we WILL do this summer). And if we want, we can match any offer McLemore gets, though right now that seems kind of unlikely. That's a lot of bodies holding down SG, and most of them aren't really cut out to play either PG/SF successfully. So another SG, especially an expensive one, creates a bit of a logjam.

Meanwhile, we have no PGs under contract next year, and the only SF we might have under contract is Barnes if he doesn't opt out. These are the needs we have to figure out how to fill. SG is fine right now.

 

[ParniValjak]

Who says no?!



My reasoning:
Sacramento does it because
- It get a perfect PF (Ibaka) next to Cousins that improves spacing and shooting
- Jeff Green can play PF and SF, has familiarity with Joerger and his passing skills improves the ball movement. Can be used as a starter of a 6th man type
- Payton while not ideal is a young PG that is a good defender. Not the greatest fit for our offense but could work.
- If it doesn't work out, we did not compromise the cap space.

Orlando does it because:
- Vucevic is in the dog house and they appear to be open to moving him
- Gay provides them some much needed scoring punch and allows them to move Gordon to a more natural position at PF.
- Collison provides them with a solid veteran PG that can be a pesky defender for Vogel as well as provide some shooting and scoring.
- Knight is young, good defender and they can use him at PG or SG or even as a sixth man.
- Koufos gives them a defensive C that Vogel seems to prefer whether as a starter or off the bench
- A lot of cap flexibility in the off-season with Gay and Collison coming off the books and if it works out for them, they would be a decent chance to keep them.

Phoenix does it because:
- They get rid of Knight who seems to be surplus to requirements now that Bledsoe is fit and Booker is playing well.
- With Vucevic they add some much needed balance to the line up and an offensive minded C who can give them a bit of a scoring punch.

 

[LPKingsFan]

Who says no?!

View attachment 6131

My reasoning:
Sacramento does it because
- It get a perfect PF (Ibaka) next to Cousins that improves spacing and shooting
- Jeff Green can play PF and SF, has familiarity with Joerger and his passing skills improves the ball movement. Can be used as a starter of a 6th man type
- Payton while not ideal is a young PG that is a good defender. Not the greatest fit for our offense but could work.
- If it doesn't work out, we did not compromise the cap space.

Orlando does it because:
- Vucevic is in the dog house and they appear to be open to moving him
- Gay provides them some much needed scoring punch and allows them to move Gordon to a more natural position at PF.
- Collison provides them with a solid veteran PG that can be a pesky defender for Vogel as well as provide some shooting and scoring.
- Knight is young, good defender and they can use him at PG or SG or even as a sixth man.
- Koufos gives them a defensive C that Vogel seems to prefer whether as a starter or off the bench
- A lot of cap flexibility in the off-season with Gay and Collison coming off the books and if it works out for them, they would be a decent chance to keep them.

Phoenix does it because:
- They get rid of Knight who seems to be surplus to requirements now that Bledsoe is fit and Booker is playing well.
- With Vucevic they add some much needed balance to the line up and an offensive minded C who can give them a bit of a scoring punch.

My guess would be Orlando says no. They trade a lotto pick and a guy for whom they just traded two lotto picks... for what is a rather underwhelming package. They roster as currently structured is puzzling, I give you that, but if anything I'd guess they want to package their assets for one or two guys rather than split them into what they get here.

I could see, however, something just between Orlando and the Kings along the lines of Gay and Koufos for Vucevic and Green. The logic for the Magic would be to upgrade their wing scoring and get a center who is a better fit off the bench, while maintaining cap flexibility. I still think it favors the Kings, though, as Vucevic would be a nice skill upgrade if we wanted to continue to go big next to Cousins, and while we'd take a hit from losing Gay's scoring, we'd get Green who, as you note, is familiar with Joerger.

 

[ParniValjak]

My guess would be Orlando says no. They trade a lotto pick and a guy for whom they just traded two lotto picks... for what is a rather underwhelming package. They roster as currently structured is puzzling, I give you that, but if anything I'd guess they want to package their assets for one or two guys rather than split them into what they get here.

I could see, however, something just between Orlando and the Kings along the lines of Gay and Koufos for Vucevic and Green. The logic for the Magic would be to upgrade their wing scoring and get a center who is a better fit off the bench, while maintaining cap flexibility. I still think it favors the Kings, though, as Vucevic would be a nice skill upgrade if we wanted to continue to go big next to Cousins, and while we'd take a hit from losing Gay's scoring, we'd get Green who, as you note, is familiar with Joerger.

I am not sure that Kings would want Vucevic. The reason he is out of favor in Orlando is because of his lack of defense. While he would be a skilled upgrade on Kosta, the reason why Kosta is getting minutes with us is because he actually protects the paint well, is a good defender and stays out of the way offensively. He is there to protest Cousins from picking up cheap fouls early.

Adding Vucevic takes that away and while it improves us at C offensively, it really takes away from our defense. On Payton, he also seems out of favor in Orlando and has lost his starting spot. I get the feeling that Orlando will want to make big changes before the deadline to try and jump start the season. Ibaka would be the one that they would least likely want to move but at the same time, they get a genuine scoring threat on the wing in Gay for him. It also allows Gordon to move back to his more natural position at PF and Bismak still protects the paint.

I did suspect that Orlando says no and mostly because of Ibaka but the other players from Orlando that I mentioned are on the market. I don't doubt that.

 

[LPKingsFan]

I am not sure that Kings would want Vucevic. The reason he is out of favor in Orlando is because of his lack of defense. While he would be a skilled upgrade on Kosta, the reason why Kosta is getting minutes with us is because he actually protects the paint well, is a good defender and stays out of the way offensively. He is there to protest Cousins from picking up cheap fouls early.

Adding Vucevic takes that away and while it improves us at C offensively, it really takes away from our defense. On Payton, he also seems out of favor in Orlando and has lost his starting spot. I get the feeling that Orlando will want to make big changes before the deadline to try and jump start the season. Ibaka would be the one that they would least likely want to move but at the same time, they get a genuine scoring threat on the wing in Gay for him. It also allows Gordon to move back to his more natural position at PF and Bismak still protects the paint.

I did suspect that Orlando says no and mostly because of Ibaka but the other players from Orlando that I mentioned are on the market. I don't doubt that.

Fair point about losing Koufos' defense--took a quick gander at RPM and didn't realize how strong he rates there. But Vucevic would provide an improvement for the Kings on the boards (a major weakness this season, although, other players are the culprint, not Koufos) and his shooting and passing would allow some interesting looks on offense a la Gasol/Zbo and the Kings of yore. I think we're better off using Gay to improve a long term position of need (like PG) but thought Vucevic could be an interesting opportunity to double down on a strength inside.

 

[KingMilz]

If the decision has been made to do everything we can to make the playoffs and compete now, here's a potential scenario:

MIA Gets: Goran Dragic & James Johnson
SAC Gets: Rudy Gay & Darren Collison
Why? They free up cap space to have the potential to lure potential FAs next year

DAL Gets: Arron Afflalo & Ben McLemore
SAC Gets: Wes Matthews & Devin Harris
Why? They free up cap space for a team that should be rebuilding soon

DEN Gets: Wilson Chandler
SAC Gets: Matt Barnes & Willie Cauley-Stein
Why? They pick up a young asset for their up and coming team while still having Gallinari being able to play SF

NOP Gets: Anthony Tolliver
SAC Gets: Solomon Hill
Why? They free up cap space for a player who has under performed for them giving them another shot to retool around Davis next offseason.


Kings New Roster
PG - Dragic / Lawson / Harris
SG - Matthews / Temple / Richardson
SF - Hill / Casspi
PF - Chandler / Johnson / Labissiere
C - Cousins / Koufos / Papagiannis

It's a lot of turnover, but it at least allows the Kings to maintain the same core for many years in order for them to start building chemistry (unlike this year when Collison, Lawson, Afflalo, McLemore, Gay, Casspi, Barnes, & Tolliver could all be on another team next year).

I love all the trades even the Solo one who has struggled this year but the dude can flat out defend and I thought we should have gone after him last year before he somewhat broke out towards the end of the year. Wes would be very good for us as well since all he would have to do with Cousins/Dragic/Chandler would be shoot open 3's and defend (which he still does at a very high level). The only way I see the Chandler (another guy I been wanting forever) thing happening is if Denver decide to move Nurkic for a decent SF and want a athletic big man off the bench and move
Faried into the starting line up.

The physicality of that team on the perimeter aside from the PF spot where we would be undersized would be unreal Solo/Ill Will/Wes/Johnson can all switch and are all extremely tough/strong for wing players and Johnson brings that don't **** with anyone on our team type attitude and fighting expertise. If Vlade pulled that deal off that would be incredible. Johnson first stint here he was awful due to line ups and I don't think he had full matured yet but as a back up PF he's really found a role.

I think if that team could make the playoffs they could really give some teams issues since they got a ton of guys to throw at elite wings players like KD/Kawhi.

 

[206Fan]

Fantasy GM: Rebuilding around Cousins

1. Trade Rudy Gay+Ben McLemore for Cameron Payne+Anthony Morrow+Kyle Singler, OKC uses trade exception on McLemore
   
2. Trade WCS+Arron Afflalo for Allen Crabbe
3. Trade Collison+Barnes for 1st round Raptors pick '17+Sullinger+Bruno+VanFleet
   
4. Waive Tolliver, save $6m
5. Use 7th-10thpick and draft SF Jayson Tatum
6. Use 23rd-30th pick and draft PF Isaiah Hartenstein
7. Use 2nd round pick and draft PG Marcus Keene
8. Sign Serge Ibaka 4 years $80million
9. Sign Bogdanovic 3 years $18million
10. Lawson 1 year $3million

PG: Payne/Lawson/Keene
SG: Bogdanovic/Temple/Richardson
SF: Crabbe/Tatum/Singler/Bruno
PF: Ibaka/Hartenstein/Skal
C: Cousins/Koufos/PapaG

Everything above would find a way to fit under the cap...at least, according to my calculations. Apparently, we'll also have a new rule in the CBA where you can add a few additional roster spots by sending guys to the DL. It could certainly be used for Bruno, Skal, and Papagiannis.

I think the real question would come down to whether or not our squad would be good enough for the playoffs. Truthfully, I think it would be. The key would come down to how much Payne and Crabbe will be able to break-out in much bigger roles. While I'm more unsure about how Payne will do as a starting PG, I believe that Crabbe is a guy who could have a huge offensive impact. This team would also be reliant on Bogdanovic to be less of a rookie, and more of an experienced player. I think having a capable ball handler in Bogdanovic will help Payne's transition into a starter. Onto the bench: while we have youth, we also have vets who could take their minutes if they're not ready yet.

With my fantasy team, we'd have guys who perfectly fit with Cousins. It would be an interesting re-build, and if Cousins decides to leave, we'd still have a really bright future with: Bogdanovic/Hartenstein/Tatum/Payne/Keene/Skal/Richardson/Papagiannis/Crabbe.

Can I be GM for 1 day? I promise I won't trade Cousins!

 

[Ron]

Pardon my French and cut me some slack here,
cause this post below is not so much about REbuilding around Cousins.
It's more about simply BUILDING around Big Cuz.
(Oh, and it's a stats' post. Brace yourselves...)


We are all looking for Ws, so this post is all about 4 of those:

What Works Well With Boogie?

Since a lot of us are pretty sold about the idea of trying to build a winning team around Cuz ASAP,
I thought it would make sense to check which current players & lineups were best suitable to DMC stats-wise.

The first and easiest task would be to check all 2-man lineups we used this season,
and see how each of the other Kings players paired with Boogie individually, and
who were the ones who best complimented him / had the best synergy with him.

Later on, I will try to expand this inner circle to 3-man lineups, and so on...

So... Here goes...

Cousins paired with all other Kings:

Below are the 11 pairs of 2-man lineups featuring Boogie
and another Kings' player, sorted by minutes played:



Traditional Stats & Opponents Stats Combined

Here are some traditional statistics' comparisons for those 11 pairs.

Notes:
* Kings traditional stats are taken from HERE, Kings' opponent stats - from HERE
** All stats are standardized per 48 minutes

Kings vs Opponents - Points Per 48:


Offense:
The best pairing BY FAR for offensive results was with Casspi (113.8 points scored per 48!),
with the DMC+Temple and DMC+Tolliver pairs tied in the far-back 2nd (107.8).
The two most frequent pairings (with Gay & Collison) were in the solid middle of the pack (106.3 & 106.6),
and the pairs with Koufos and McLemore were the worst, offensively (98.8 & 98.7).

Defense:
The best pairing for defensive results was with Temple (allowing only 97.8 points per 48),
followed very closely by the DMC+Casspi pair (98.1) and then the DMC+Koufos pair (99.9).
The most frequent pairing, with Rudy, was also quite successfull (allowing 100.9),
The pairs with Barnes (108.3) Afflalo (110.1), & especially WCS (112.7) hurt us the most.

Combined:
The best combo of offense and defense (expressed in the lineups' +/-) by a BIG MARGIN
was accomplished by pairing Boogie with Casspi.
Such a pair built a +15.7 point differential per 48 minutes!!
Pairing with Temple yielded a strong +10.0 point margin as well,
and the pairs of DMC+Gay and DMC+DC also gave us positive results (+5.4 and +3.0).
The rest of the pairs all yielded either zero (Tolliver, Lawson)
or significant negative (Barnes, Afflalo, WCS) differentials,
with the DMC+B-Mac pair at the very fugly bottom (-8.5).

Looks like our best matches are not always the ones mostly used.


Kings vs Opponents - Field Goal Percentage:


General FG%:
Once again, our best option for pairing a team-mate with Boogie offensively has been Casspi.
The team scored 50.2% from the field with this duo on court.
The pairs with Barnes (48.5%) and KK (48.1%) were 2nd and 3rd.
Defensively, the best pair BY A MILE was DMC+Temple, allowing only 41.9% opponent's shooting,
with DMC+Casspi at 2nd (43.5%), DMC+WCS at 3rd (44.3%), and DMC+Lawson at 4th (44.8%)

When checking the O%-D% combination, to measure the impact on FG% on both ends of the court,
the pairs with Casspi (+6.7%) and Temple (+4.3%) stand out as strong boosters,
whereas the pairs with McLemore (-8.4%) and Tolliver (-6.1%) drag us down the most.

Shooting the 3:
Funny enough, the pair that yields our best 3pt% offensively was with KK (39.2%) .
We also shot well with Afflalo (38.5%) and most of the pairs were close behind, with 36-37%.
The exceptions were the DMC+Tolliver and DMC+WCS pairs, with 32.8% and 32.4% respectively.

Our best Defense-Duo against 3-pointers was DMC+Casspi, who allowed only 30.6% from distance (!!)
Pairing with Lawson (32.1%) was also very disruptive, while on the other hand the pairs with
McLemore (41.8% 3pt shooting), Barnes (40.1%), Collison (39.6%) & Koufos (39.0%) hurt us.

Checking the O%-D% combination, to measure the impact on 3pt% on both ends of the court,
the pairs with Casspi (+6.7%) and Lawson (+4.1%) helped us the most this year,
and the pairs with B-Mac (-4.9%), Tolliver (-4.3%) and Barnes (-3.9%) were the least helpfull.

Kings vs Opponents - Rebounding and Assisting per 48


Outrebounding opponents:
The current Kings are one of the poorest rebounding teams in the league.
Hence, almost any Kings lineup got outrebounded by opponents, even if DMC was a part of it...
The only 2-man lineup that outrebounded opponents is DMC+KK. All other 10 were toast...
Still, our best less awful DMC-pairs for outrebounding opponents were:
KK (+1.6), Gay (-0.6), Lawson (-0.8)
Our worst DMC-pairs for outrebounding opponents were:
WCS (-8.4), Barnes (-5.4), Tolliver (-4.4)

Out-Assisting opponents:
Top DMC-pairs for outassisting opponents were:
Casspi (+5.8), Temple (+3.3), Tolliver (+1.4)
Bottom DMC-pairs for outassisting opponents were:
Afflalo (-4.1), McLemore (-3.0), WCS (-2.8)

Kings vs Opponents - Turnovers and Stealing per 48


Less TOs than opponents:
Top DMC-pairs for keeping-the-ball-better than opponents were:
WCS (-4.2 TOs), Casspi (-3.5! who said he's TO-prone? ), Collison (-2.5)
Bottom DMC-pairs for ball-keeping (turend the ball over more than opponents) were:
Afflalo (+2.5), Lawson (+0.6)

Out-Stealing opponents:
Top DMC-pairs for outstealing opponents were:
Collison (+2.0), Koufos (+1.9), Casspi (+1.0)
Bottom DMC-pairs for outstealing opponents were:
Toliver (-1.6), Barnes (-0.8), Afflalo & WCS (-0.7)

Kings vs Opponents - Blocking and Fouling per 48


Out-Blocking opponents:
The Kings are one of the least-swatting, most-swatted teams in the league, and so -
only one single DMC-pair outblocked opponents...
Top DMC-pairs for outblocking opponents were:
Casspi (+0.2!!), Temple & McLemore (-0.7)
Bottom DMC-pairs for outblocking opponents were:
Koufos (-3.1), Lawson (-2.3), WCS (-2.1)

Having less fouls called-on than opponents:
In general, the Kings are one of the top teams in the league in getting foul calls,
and it's mostly Boogie's work , so almost any DMC-pair will have a favorable (negative)
foul-balance with the opponents.
And indeed, 10 out of 11 two-man lineups involving Cuz had a negative foul-call balance!
(the one exception being the rare DMC+WCS pair)
Top DMC-pairs for beating opponents in foul calling were:
Casspi (-6.9), Tolliver (-5.4), Collison (-4.0)
Bottom DMC-pairs for beating opponents in foul calling were:
WCS (+0.7??), McLemore (-0.8), Koufoso (-1.8)

Advanced Stats

To complete the individual WWWW (Who Works Well With) Boogie,
here are some Advanced Stats for those 11 pairs of Cuz+1,
with the best and worst pair in each measure highlighted:

Defense/Offense/Net Ratings


Top pairs in OFFRTG: Casspi (WAY ahead! 115.3), WCS (110.8), Tolliver (109.5)
Bottom pairs in OFFRTG: Koufos (103.1), Lawson (105.0), McLemore (105.5)

Top pairs in DEFRTG: Casspi (101.2), Temple (102.2), Gay (105.1), Lawson (105.3)
Bottom in DEFRTG: Barnes & B-Mac (tied with 114.3), Afflalo (114.2), Tolliver (113.3)

Top pairs in NETRTG: Casspi (+14.0 !!), Temple (+6.3), Gay (+2.4) [all the rest are negative!]
Bottom in NETRTG: McLemore (-8.8), Afflalo (-7.8), Barnes (-7.3)

More Advanced Stats


DMC+Casspi was the best of all 11 pairs in FIVE different stats:

AST%, AST/TO, AST-RATIO, EFG% and TS%!
(It also came 2nd in minimizing turnovers - TOV%)​

DMC+Collison was best in TOV% (and 2nd in AST/TO)

DMC+KK was best in REB% but was worst in TS%

DMC+WCS was the worst in FOUR stats: AST%, AST-RATIO, REB% and EFG%

(And 2nd worst in AST/TO)​

DMC+Lawson was worst in AST/TO and TOV%


PIE (PlayerLineup Impact Estimate)


PIE RANKING

• DMC+Casspi led by a big margin (59.5)
• DMC+Temple came 2nd (56.0)
• DMC+Gay came 3rd (52.3)
• Pairs with McLemore (45.8), Afflalo (46.3) and Barnes (46.9) were the lowest in ranking

That's all for the 2-man lineups!

__________________________________________

Bottom Line and Call for Advice moved to a separate post below

 

[hrdboild]

Pardon my French and cut me some slack here,
cause this post below is not that much about REbuilding around Cousins.
It's more about simply BUILDING around Big Cuz.
(Oh, and it's a stats' post. Brace yourselves...)

We are all looking for Ws, so this post is all about 4 of those:

What Works Well With Boogie?

Since a lot of us are pretty sold about the idea of trying to build a winning team around Cuz ASAP,
I thought it would make sense to check which current players & lineups were best suitable to DMC stats-wise.

The first and easiest task would be to check all 2-man lineups we used this season,
and see how each of the other Kings players paired with Boogie individually, and
who were the ones who best complimented him / had the best synergy with him.

Later on, I will try to expand this inner circle to 3-man lineups, and so on...

So... Here goes...

Cousins paired with all other Kings:

Below are the 11 pairs of 2-man lineups featuring Boogie
and another Kings' player, sorted by minutes played:

View attachment 6166

And now - some traditional statistics' comparison between them:
* Kings stats are taken from HERE, opponent stats - from HERE
** All stats are standardized to per 48 minutes

King's vs Opponents - Points Per 48:
View attachment 6167

Offense:
The best pairing BY FAR for offensive results was with Casspi (113.8 points scored per 48!),
with the DMC+Temple and DMC+Tolliver pairs tied in the far-back 2nd (107.8).
The two most frequent pairings (with Gay & Collison) were in the solid middle of the pack (106.3 & 106.6),
and the pairs with Koufos and McLemore are the worst, offensively (98.8 & 98.7).

Defense:
The best pairing for defensive results was with Temple (allowing only 97.8 points per 48),
followed very closely by the DMC+Casspi pair (98.1) and then the DMC+Koufos pair (99.9).
The most frequent pairing, with Rudy, was also quite successfull (allowing 100.9),
and the pairs with Barnes (108.3) Afflalo (110.1), and especially WCS (112.7) hurt us the most.

Combined:
The best combo of offense and defense (expressed in the lineups' +/-) by a BIG MARGIN
was accomplished by pairing Boogie with Omri. Such a pair built a +15.7 point differential
per 48 minutes!!
Pairing with Temple yielded a strong +10.0 point margin as well,
and the pairs of DMC+Gay and DMC+DC also gave us positive results (+5.4 and +3.0).
The rest of the pairs all yielded either zero (Tolliver, Lawson) or negative differentials,
with B-Mac's pair at the very bottom.

Looks like our best matches are not always the ones mostly used.


King's vs Opponents - Field Goal Percentage:
View attachment 6169

To be continued...

If I had my way, Casspi and Temple would be the only Boogie teammates listed here that I brought back for next season (plus the three rooks who haven't played much) so your results so far are pretty encouraging. In fact, this isn't a bad way to go about building a team... find what works, jettison the rest, and keep adding new pieces until you've got a whole team that plays well together.

 

[KingsFan80]

Fans came back for the arena. It's here now and ticket costs went up 35% with it. The shine is off now. Many fans have already indicated they arent renewing. They can get single game tickets easy enough and most likely at a discount. No need for season tickets if there arent any playoffs.

This is spot on to what I have heard from attending games this year. People are fed up - as they should be

 

[Ron]

Earlier in this thread I've done a lot of data mining
about all possible 2-man lineups featuring Cousins.

Since it was a long post, filled with charts and text, I was afraid
that my BOTTOM LINE and CALL FOR ADVICE would be lost,
or misconstrued

...So I'll repeat myself, at the risk of being crude:
--There must be fifty ways to leave your lover.

[ Sorry, just couldn't resist]​

...So I moved them here below, for your perusal (and opinions) -


BOTTOM LINE:


The data shows, in a very clear and consistent way

that Boogie is best paired with:
(descending order)​

1. Omri Casspi (Very consistently across all stats and measures)
2. Garrett Temple (More on the D side, but convincingly overall, too)
3. Rudy Gay
4. Darren Collison (offensively), Ty Lawson (deffensively) and Kosta Koufos (Boards & rim protection)

The data Implies we should avoid pairing Boogie with:

(descending order)​

1. Ben McLemore (Has been a bad pairing on both ends)
2. Aaron Afflalo (Mostly on D)
3. Matt Barnes (Mostly on D)
4. Willie Cauley Stein (Problematic on ball movement and rebounding & Meh on D)

Practice shows a LOW CORELLATION

between the statistical merit of Boogie-pairs
and their level of use...
(The strongest pairings of Casspi & Temple were not among the most widely used,
while some of the weakest pairings, like Barnes and Afflalo, were used extensively)​

A CALL FOR ADVICE:

A) IS THIS THE RIGHT THREAD FOR THIS?

(OTHERWISE PLEASE MOVE IT TO WHERE IT'S MORE SUITABLE)
​

B) THOUGHTS?

COMMENTS?

CORRECTIONS?
​

C) WHAT NOW?

(HOW) SHALL I GO ON?​

• Should I move-on to the next level? (Would you be interested in the more complex picture of 3-man lineups: Cuz+2 players?)
• If I DO go-on to the next level, do you think I should:
  • go on with only the favorable pairs of Cuz+1 (Casspi, Temple, Gay...), and check what happens with the addition of the next (3rd) guy, or...
  • look at all Kings' three-man lineups featuring Boogie this season? (There are 59 of them...)

 

[Lopes]

Pardon my French and cut me some slack here,
cause this post below is not that much about REbuilding around Cousins.
It's more about simply BUILDING around Big Cuz.
(Oh, and it's a stats' post. Brace yourselves...)

We are all looking for Ws, so this post is all about 4 of those:

What Works Well With Boogie?

Since a lot of us are pretty sold about the idea of trying to build a winning team around Cuz ASAP,
I thought it would make sense to check which current players & lineups were best suitable to DMC stats-wise.

The first and easiest task would be to check all 2-man lineups we used this season,
and see how each of the other Kings players paired with Boogie individually, and
who were the ones who best complimented him / had the best synergy with him.

Later on, I will try to expand this inner circle to 3-man lineups, and so on...

So... Here goes...

Cousins paired with all other Kings:

Below are the 11 pairs of 2-man lineups featuring Boogie
and another Kings' player, sorted by minutes played:

View attachment 6166

Traditional Stats & Opponents Stats Combined

Here are some traditional statistics' comparisons for those 11 pairs.

Notes:
* Kings traditional stats are taken from HERE, Kings' opponent stats - from HERE
** All stats are standardized per 48 minutes

Kings vs Opponents - Points Per 48:
View attachment 6167

Offense:
The best pairing BY FAR for offensive results was with Casspi (113.8 points scored per 48!),
with the DMC+Temple and DMC+Tolliver pairs tied in the far-back 2nd (107.8).
The two most frequent pairings (with Gay & Collison) were in the solid middle of the pack (106.3 & 106.6),
and the pairs with Koufos and McLemore were the worst, offensively (98.8 & 98.7).

Defense:
The best pairing for defensive results was with Temple (allowing only 97.8 points per 48),
followed very closely by the DMC+Casspi pair (98.1) and then the DMC+Koufos pair (99.9).
The most frequent pairing, with Rudy, was also quite successfull (allowing 100.9),
The pairs with Barnes (108.3) Afflalo (110.1), & especially WCS (112.7) hurt us the most.

Combined:
The best combo of offense and defense (expressed in the lineups' +/-) by a BIG MARGIN
was accomplished by pairing Boogie with Casspi.
Such a pair built a +15.7 point differential per 48 minutes!!
Pairing with Temple yielded a strong +10.0 point margin as well,
and the pairs of DMC+Gay and DMC+DC also gave us positive results (+5.4 and +3.0).
The rest of the pairs all yielded either zero (Tolliver, Lawson)
or significant negative (Barnes, Afflalo, WCS) differentials,
with the DMC+B-Mac pair at the very fugly bottom (-8.5).

Looks like our best matches are not always the ones mostly used.


Kings vs Opponents - Field Goal Percentage:
View attachment 6176

General FG%:
Once again, our best option for pairing a team-mate with Boogie offensively has been Casspi.
The team scored 50.2% from the field with this duo on court.
The pairs with Barnes (48.5%) and KK (48.1%) were 2nd and 3rd.
Defensively, the best pair BY A MILE was DMC+Temple, allowing only 41.9% opponent's shooting,
with DMC+Casspi at 2nd (43.5%), DMC+WCS at 3rd (44.3%), and DMC+Lawson at 4th (44.8%)

When checking the O%-D% combination, to measure the impact on FG% on both ends of the court,
the pairs with Casspi (+6.7%) and Temple (+4.3%) stand out as strong boosters,
whereas the pairs with McLemore (-8.4%) and Tolliver (-6.1%) drag us down the most.

Shooting the 3:
Funny enough, the pair that yields our best 3pt% offensively was with KK (39.2%) .
We also shot well with Afflalo (38.5%) and most of the pairs were close behind, with 36-37%.
The exceptions were the DMC+Tolliver and DMC+WCS pairs, with 32.8% and 32.4% respectively.

Our best Defense-Duo against 3-pointers was DMC+Casspi, who allowed only 30.6% from distance (!!)
Pairing with Lawson (32.1%) was also very disruptive, while on the other hand the pairs with
McLemore (41.8% 3pt shooting), Barnes (40.1%), Collison (39.6%) & Koufos (39.0%) hurt us.

Checking the O%-D% combination, to measure the impact on 3pt% on both ends of the court,
the pairs with Casspi (+6.7%) and Lawson (+4.1%) helped us the most this year,
and the pairs with B-Mac (-4.9%), Tolliver (-4.3%) and Barnes (-3.9%) were the least helpfull.

Kings vs Opponents - Rebounding and Assisting per 48
View attachment 6177

Outrebounding opponents:
The current Kings are one of the poorest rebounding teams in the league.
Hence, almost any Kings lineup got outrebounded by opponents, even if DMC was a part of it...
The only 2-man lineup that outrebounded opponents is DMC+KK. All other 10 were toast...
Still, our best less awful DMC-pairs for outrebounding opponents were:
KK (+1.6), Gay (-0.6), Lawson (-0.8)
Our worst DMC-pairs for outrebounding opponents were:
WCS (-8.4), Barnes (-5.4), Tolliver (-4.4)

Out-Assisting opponents:
Top DMC-pairs for outassisting opponents were:
Casspi (+5.8), Temple (+3.3), Tolliver (+1.4)
Bottom DMC-pairs for outassisting opponents were:
Afflalo (-4.1), McLemore (-3.0), WCS (-2.8)

Kings vs Opponents - Turnovers and Stealing per 48
View attachment 6180

Less TOs than opponents:
Top DMC-pairs for keeping-the-ball-better than opponents were:
WCS (-4.2 TOs), Casspi (-3.5! who said he's TO-prone? ), Collison (-2.5)
Bottom DMC-pairs for ball-keeping (turend the ball over more than opponents) were:
Afflalo (+2.5), Lawson (+0.6)

Out-Stealing opponents:
Top DMC-pairs for outstealing opponents were:
Collison (+2.0), Koufos (+1.9), Casspi (+1.0)
Bottom DMC-pairs for outstealing opponents were:
Toliver (-1.6), Barnes (-0.8), Afflalo & WCS (-0.7)

Kings vs Opponents - Blocking and Fouling per 48
View attachment 6181

Out-Blocking opponents:
The Kings are one of the least-swatting, most-swatted teams in the league, and so -
only one single DMC-pair outblocked opponents...
Top DMC-pairs for outblocking opponents were:
Casspi (+0.2!!), Temple & McLemore (-0.7)
Bottom DMC-pairs for outblocking opponents were:
Koufos (-3.1), Lawson (-2.3), WCS (-2.1)

Having less fouls called-on than opponents:
In general, the Kings are one of the top teams in the league in getting foul calls,
and it's mostly Boogie's work , so almost any DMC-pair will have a favorable (negative)
foul-balance with the opponents.
And indeed, 10 out of 11 two-man lineups involving Cuz had a negative foul-call balance!
(the one exception being the rare DMC+WCS pair)
Top DMC-pairs for beating opponents in foul calling were:
Casspi (-6.9), Tolliver (-5.4), Collison (-4.0)
Bottom DMC-pairs for beating opponents in foul calling were:
WCS (+0.7??), McLemore (-0.8), Koufoso (-1.8)

Advanced Stats

To complete the individual WWWW (Who Works Well With) Boogie,
here are some Advanced Stats for those 11 pairs of Cuz+1,
with the best and worst pair in each measure highlighted:

Defense/Offense/Net Ratings
View attachment 6182

Top pairs in OFFRTG: Casspi (WAY ahead! 115.3), WCS (110.8), Tolliver (109.5)
Bottom pairs in OFFRTG: Koufos (103.1), Lawson (105.0), McLemore (105.5)

Top pairs in DEFRTG: Casspi (101.2), Temple (102.2), Gay (105.1), Lawson (105.3)
Bottom in DEFRTG: Barnes & B-Mac (tied with 114.3), Afflalo (114.2), Tolliver (113.3)

Top pairs in NETRTG: Casspi (+14.0 !!), Temple (+6.3), Gay (+2.4) [all the rest are negative!]
Bottom in NETRTG: McLemore (-8.8), Afflalo (-7.8), Barnes (-7.3)

More Advanced Stats
View attachment 6183

DMC+Casspi was the best of all 11 pairs in FIVE different stats:

AST%, AST/TO, AST-RATIO, EFG% and TS%!
(It also came 2nd in minimizing turnovers - TOV%)​

DMC+Collison was best in TOV% (and 2nd in AST/TO)

DMC+KK was best in REB% but was worst in TS%

DMC+WCS was the worst in FOUR stats: AST%, AST-RATIO, REB% and EFG%

(And 2nd worst in AST/TO)​

DMC+Lawson was worst in AST/TO and TOV%


PIE (PlayerLineup Impact Estimate)
View attachment 6184

PIE RANKING

• DMC+Casspi led by a big margin (59.5)
• DMC+Temple came 2nd (56.0)
• DMC+Gay came 3rd (52.3)
• Pairs with McLemore (45.8), Afflalo (46.3) and Barnes (46.9) were the lowest in ranking

That's all for the 2-man lineups!

__________________________________________

Bottom Line and Call for Advice moved to a separate post below

Don't get me wrong I prefer casspi one million times over Barnes but the per 48 is misleading here

 

[Ron]

Don't get me wrong I prefer casspi one million times over Barnes but the per 48 is misleading here

Why is it misleading?
(Seems misleading NOT to use it)

It's not like we're dealing with miniature and volatile sample sizes that may get inflated or shrunk by multiplication:
Barnes shared the court with DMC 18 minutes per game.
Casspi shared the court with DMC 10 minutes per game.

That's perfectly usable for extrapolation to 48 minutes.

(Unless you suggest that Omri could not have sustained the same level of intensity for more than 10 minutes...)

 

[Lopes]

Why is it misleading?
(Seems misleading NOT to use it)

It's not like we're dealing with miniature and volatile sample sizes that may get inflated or shrunk by multiplication:
Barnes shared the court with DMC 18 minutes per game.
Casspi shares the court with DMC 10 minutes per game.

That's perfectly usable for extrapolation to 48 minutes.

(Unless you suggest that Omri could not have sustained the same level of intensity for more than 10 minutes...)

Yes I do not believe that Omri could not sustain the intensity consistently.