Prospect watch 2011
- Thread starter asakkings
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bajaden
Hall of Famer
I think I would beg to differ with you on UCONN having more draft prospects. Other than Kemba Walker, the only other guy I would say is draftable, and thats if he declares, is Alex Oriakhi. Jeremy Lamb is a nice prospect, but is a freshman and isn't ready for the NBA.
Kentucky on the other hand has two sure first round picks in Brandon Knight and Terrence Jones. I firmly believe that if Doron Lamb throws his hat into the ring, he's a high second round or low first round pick.. He's had to play behind Knight all year, but is shooting 48.1% from beyond the arc. Another guy that could be a second round pick if he decides to declare is DeAndre Liggins who is a Junior. He's the glue guy on that team. He's an outstanding defender who can defend three positions and is shooting 40.2% from beyond the arc. I wouldn't discount Darius Miller playing in the NBA one day either. I doubt he'll be drafted if he declares, but he's a guy that brings a lot of attributes to the table, including shooting 44.9% from beyond the arc.
If this were a 3 out of 5, or a 4 out of 7 series, I'd definitely put my money on Kentucky. The simply have more fire power. But since its a one and done game, its up for grabs. I'm still betting on Kentucky, but if all their shooters go cold, I can see UCONN winning the game.
bajaden
Hall of Famer
Well the Kentucky game ended up being a nail biter, and a game in which both teams looked a little tight. Neither Knight nor Walker had good shooting nights. Knight in particular looked like he was feeling the pressure of a big game going 6 for 23 from the floor. I can't remember a game all year where he came up short on so many shots. In the end, I think it was experience on the part of UCONN that was the deciding factor. Kentucky is a very good outside shooting team, and on this day, no one other than Lamb could make a shot with any kind of consistency. You live by the sword and you die by the sword as they say.
Terrence Jones and Doron Lamb were the only two players for Kentucky to have good games. Jones did what he does in every game. He had 11 points, on 5 of 8 shooting, and was 1 for 2 from beyond the arc. He pulled down 15 rebounds, had 4 steals, and blocked 1 shot. I had him blocking 3 shots on my card, but somehow I saw something that the official scorrer missed. Doron Lamb had a very efficient game with 13 pt's on 5 or 10 shooting, going 3 for 5 from beyond the arc. Bottom line, is that when your best three players are all freshmen, your at a disadvantage going against a more experienced team. Kentucky missed a lot of wide open shots that they normally make. The collar just got a little too tight. Walker, whose presence alone can make a difference, wasn't particularly effective. He scored 18 pt's on 6 of 15 shooting, but was just 1 for 5 from beyond the arc. He did manage 7 assists to go with 4 turnovers.
I want to throw some props to Jamie Skeen of VCU, the 6'9" PF/C . He certainly drew the attention of the scouts in the building with his last two performances. Its always good to save the best for last. He had 27 pts on 10 of 17 shooting and was 3 for 4 from beyond the arc. He also added 6 boards. He's an interesting player, in that he seems comfortable either under the basket, or out beyond the 3 pt line. And seems to be effective from either position. He appears to be quite the physical specimen as well. A good effort in a losing cause.
Also some props to Shelvin Mack of Butler. The 6'3" guard. He had 24 pt's on 8 of 11 shooting and was a blistering 5 of 6 from beyond the arc. In all the games I've watched, Mack never seems tight, and plays with the same loose, its just another game attitude. If he can do that one more time, Butler has the ability to beat UCONN. We'll see. I'm pulling for UCONN in this one, but a surpirse win by Butler, well, I guess it wouldn't really be a surpirse.
Terrence Jones and Doron Lamb were the only two players for Kentucky to have good games. Jones did what he does in every game. He had 11 points, on 5 of 8 shooting, and was 1 for 2 from beyond the arc. He pulled down 15 rebounds, had 4 steals, and blocked 1 shot. I had him blocking 3 shots on my card, but somehow I saw something that the official scorrer missed. Doron Lamb had a very efficient game with 13 pt's on 5 or 10 shooting, going 3 for 5 from beyond the arc. Bottom line, is that when your best three players are all freshmen, your at a disadvantage going against a more experienced team. Kentucky missed a lot of wide open shots that they normally make. The collar just got a little too tight. Walker, whose presence alone can make a difference, wasn't particularly effective. He scored 18 pt's on 6 of 15 shooting, but was just 1 for 5 from beyond the arc. He did manage 7 assists to go with 4 turnovers.
I want to throw some props to Jamie Skeen of VCU, the 6'9" PF/C . He certainly drew the attention of the scouts in the building with his last two performances. Its always good to save the best for last. He had 27 pts on 10 of 17 shooting and was 3 for 4 from beyond the arc. He also added 6 boards. He's an interesting player, in that he seems comfortable either under the basket, or out beyond the 3 pt line. And seems to be effective from either position. He appears to be quite the physical specimen as well. A good effort in a losing cause.
Also some props to Shelvin Mack of Butler. The 6'3" guard. He had 24 pt's on 8 of 11 shooting and was a blistering 5 of 6 from beyond the arc. In all the games I've watched, Mack never seems tight, and plays with the same loose, its just another game attitude. If he can do that one more time, Butler has the ability to beat UCONN. We'll see. I'm pulling for UCONN in this one, but a surpirse win by Butler, well, I guess it wouldn't really be a surpirse.
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bajaden
Hall of Famer
I'm willing to give him more time. He is only 18 years old, and in the tournament he definitely tried to do too much. He has a lot of skills, and if you watched him all year long, he does have point guard instincts ans skills. I'm not going to predict that he'll turn into the next coming of Chancey Billups, but I'm not willing to pronounce him dead on arrival. To be honest, the definition of a point guard in the league is changing. And the so called true point guards in the league you can almost count on one hand.
For those lusting after a point guard, there will be two in next years draft worth watching. Marcus Teague, Jeff's little brother, and more talented than Jeff in my opinion, and Austin Rivers, the son of Doc Rivers. Hey, there's always next year.
Hoovtrain
All-Star
I know you have talked about him before, but I can't recall what you said. What are your thoughts on Terrence Jones? With this late season mini surge by the Kings, I could see Jones being an option when the Kings pick. He would fill a need at SF, but I am not too sure about his perimeter shooting.
Vlade4GM
All-Star
I don't think the PG position is changing so much where it doesn't require IQ, decision making, and shot selection. I'm not pronouncing him dead, but I'm not going to bet on him, that's for sure.
bajaden
Hall of Famer
I'm not going to argue about this. You have your opinion and I have mine. And by the way, players without basketball IQ, don't know how to play the game of basketball. There's a difference between having basketball IQ, and using it. Thabeet is a perfect example of no basketball IQ.
Sptsjunkie
Starter
One thing I found interesting from yesterday's game was that the announcer's said that by the end of this year, Knight would quality as a Junior academically at Kentucky. Apparently he transfered over credits from high school and has taken a decently heavy course load. They also mentioned he currently had a perfect 4.0 GPA. I'll admit, I try not to put too much stock in "fluff pieces" about player, but if true, it definitely increases my faith in Knight's ability to learn and to become a PG capable of running a NBA offense.
Vlade4GM
All-Star
The thing is about Jones is that he's not really a bad shooter as much as he has a really slow release. So if he has space and time to get his shot off, then he has decent accuracy. So he can make open shots, but the question is can he draw defenders in enough to get by them?
He's got solid handles for a 3, good handles for a 4, and he can score a little on the block. Jones could be a good SF if you give him the ball, but I don't know if he's good enough to justify having the ball all that much. I think he needs to be more of an Odom type PF. The plus side is that he's 6'8 (maybe taller now since he was kind of a late sprouter) 240-250, good explosiveness, can handle the ball, pass, rebound, block shots, and can finish around the basket. My big questions about him are his shot off the dribble, motor, and off-ball play. So I think the Odom comparisons are pretty good, but he's stronger, a better shot blocker, and he probably doesn't have the level of guard skills and quickness that Odom has.
Jones may not be a great fit with this team (I don't think he's a bad fit though) but he's probably the only one I like outside of the top 4/5 area.
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Vlade4GM
All-Star
I didn't mean to say he has Thabeet level IQ. I'm saying I think he lacks a PG standard of IQ.
bajaden
Hall of Famer
I'm not going to make excuses for him. He had a terrible last game, and for the most part, didn't play all that well in the entire tournament. He simply tried to do too much. Call it youth, inexperience, or whatever you want. He shot the ball well all season long, and couldn't make a shot for the life of him against UCONN. Not a surprise to me. You always hope for better, but its rare to get poise from a freshman when he's playing in the biggest game of his life. Was Kemba more poised? You bet. But Kemba wasn't poised his freshman year, and probably didn't have as many skills as a freshman that Knight has right now. Experience does make a difference.
Its a tough transition to the NBA period. Its even tougher for a freshman thats playing one of the hardest positions to play. What your asking an 18 year old to do is transition from highschool to college, and then from college to the NBA, all in a one year span. Only special players can do that. Not sure what they're eating, but they're definitely made up of different genetic matter. Knight has the athleticism and skills to be a good player at the next level. It will take some time. Its all up to him..
bajaden
Hall of Famer
I pretty much agree with your assessment. Actually Jones played a little point guard and then off guard before sprouting up to his current height. And your right, he may be taller than the 6'8" he's listed at. I think the Odom comparison is a good one. He handles the ball a little better than Odom, and like Odom is a good passer. I also think he's more athletic than Odom. But my eye is looking at the current Odom and not the Odom that came into the league.
For the most part, he has no reliable shot off the dribble, other than a quick dribble hook shot in the key. But no jumpshot off the dribble. So thats something he would have to work on. I can see him playing both PF and SF and being able to guard both positions. At this point, I'd call him a diamond in the rough, but with a lot of work, he could be a very valuable player that could get you some points without you having to run plays for him. While at the same time he could be making life miserable for the opposition with his defense, and rebounding. No guarantee's on him, but there's definitely something there thats unique.
Vlade4GM
All-Star
You're not wrong Baja, but the reality of the situation with scouting in the NBA these days is that you are going to have incomplete information about players. So you can't make judgments about players like they're finished products, you have to work with what you do know about them, not what you don't know. How they'll continue to develop is definitely what you don't know.
I think that raw point guards are far bigger risks than raw wings and bigs. That's because point guards shoulder more responsibility in terms of decision making and setting up their teammates, they typically require more innate abilities and aptitude. That's not to say they can't improve, they obviously can, but it's not as good of a gamble as with other types of players. Maybe it's Calipari's system, but I just see a 1-on-1 gunner with Knight. He reminds me a little too much of Jerryd Bayless, I had a lot of the same criticisms about him.
I think that raw point guards are far bigger risks than raw wings and bigs. That's because point guards shoulder more responsibility in terms of decision making and setting up their teammates, they typically require more innate abilities and aptitude. That's not to say they can't improve, they obviously can, but it's not as good of a gamble as with other types of players. Maybe it's Calipari's system, but I just see a 1-on-1 gunner with Knight. He reminds me a little too much of Jerryd Bayless, I had a lot of the same criticisms about him.
Vlade4GM
All-Star
I think the key to appreciating Jones is that sometimes a jack of all trades (master of none?) is very valuable in the right context. I think he is being overlooked because of this, as well as some of his perimeter skills being hidden in Calipari's system. Who knows what teams will think of him by the time of the draft, he definitely left a good last impression, but we could be in a position to take advantage of teams underrating him. I don't know if Petrie would be interested in him though. I think they may overlook him because he may not be the most obvious fit for us at the SF position. I think that would be making a mistake though, especially because I think he may be better at PF.
I think he has more vertical explosiveness than Odom, but as far as fluidity and speed with the ball, I'm not so sure. I don't know if I'm comfortable in saying he's got better ball handling and passing than Odom. Maybe they're comparable, but I don't know if we were given an adequate enough look at Jones' abilities to say so. Odom had proven vision and playmaking abilities early on, although he did lack polish. I think Jones has better post skills than Odom, he's got a nice jump hook with both hands down low. It took a while for Odom to develop his touch and scoring ability in the post.
Sptsjunkie
Starter
I agree with a lot of this, but from seeing Jones play a few times, I'm not sure motor is the right word. He seems to always be hustling and moving. Particularly on defense, he has been very disruptive in every game I've seen him play and he's made plays out of his area helping out and has chased guys down and stopped fast breaks. To me, motor sort of means hustle. And he seems to be doing that pretty consistently. He's no Faried, but he still plays hard.
What I question (and maybe this is what you meant too) is how much he wants to be "the man." Of all the top draft picks, he seems to be the most content to let the game come to him offensively. And while he has some driving and scoring ability, he would seem to disappear for stretches. He would get the ball and swing it and pick his spots. The Odom comparison is pretty good here to as this is one of the things that bugs Lakers fans. No matter the quality of the defender guarding Odom, he pretty much plays the same way, even though he has the talent/tools to take over games for stretches, especially certain match ups. Since none of us are envisioning Jones at the #1 or 2 player on our team, it's not a huge deal, but I also don't think that type of aggression and how to apply it correctly is as easy to improve upon as a player's jump shot.
Sptsjunkie
Starter
At this point, if our pick is in the 6-7 range, Jones is one of the few prospects who really intrigues me there. Assuming we do bring MT back, having a player who can shoot 3s (even if he has a slow release), score without demanding the ball, rebound and play great D would be a very good fit around our core players. He could be a very good fit for our franchise.
Vlade4GM
All-Star
I think you may be right that motor wasn't the appropriate word. I think he puts forth effort just fine, he's active defensively, and he actively goes after rebounds. Like you said though, he seemingly has a "let the game come to me" style/approach, and I think that may be part of what I meant when I said motor. The other part is I think a comment on his off-ball movement, and if that's case, then I was being a bit redundant.
That may be the case, but if it isn't, then I don't think you would be able to tell the difference because I don't think Calipari really allowed him to be that. Jones didn't really get a chance to be himself on Kentucky because he's not a true post player, he's more effective out on the perimeter where he can utilize more of his athleticism and ball handling abilities. If he were on a team where it was expected of him to run the offense and be "the man" then I think you might have seen something completely different. I think it's a mystery at this point, but like you said, it's probably not that important because he doesn't really need to be "the man," although it's always nice if a player is capable of that. You don't want a player to be inconsistent or passive, regardless of their role.
=LarryLegend=
Starter
Rumors that Barnes is announcing he is returning to UNC tuesday.
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...o-return-for-sophomore-year-at-north-carolina
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...o-return-for-sophomore-year-at-north-carolina
Kingster
Hall of Famer
I see Jones as a power forward. He has the build for that position, and he's pretty strong. He probably can guard most 4s in the league and can also be a good help defender. Just doesn't have what it takes at the three though, which requires creativity, ball handling, ability to get his own shot, outside shooting, and fluidity. If he's a 3, then he's in the mold of a Greene at the 3, which is not what I want on the Kings.
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Kingster
Hall of Famer
Regarding Knight, I saw nothing in the tourney that would dissuade me from taking him in the top 5. He's got the athletic ability, the brains and the motivation. He's not the as much of a finished product as Kemba, but that's to be expected because of the experience differential. Kemba, as a freshman, didn't exactly light up the world. Just like Knight, though, his talent was obvious, at least to me. I'd definitely take him over Jones.
bajaden
Hall of Famer
Jones definitely has the ballhandling skills to play the three. Right now he's a better ballhandler than either Casspi or Greene. He's a better rebounder than either and he's a better passer than either. No denying that his jumpshot needs work, but unlike Greene in college, he only takes it when open and seems to know his limitations from out there. Certainly room for improvement. He's a very good athlete, and a unique one, in that he's more athletic than most typical PF's, and I do think athletic enough to guard SF's. I saw him guard SG's this year with regularity. He has good lateral movement. Actually the only obsticle to his playing SF in the NBA is developing a good off the dribble outside game. He's certainly capable of taking players off the dribble and going to the basket at the college level. That will become harder at the NBA level if he can't get them to respect his shot from out there.
bajaden
Hall of Famer
Jones has been inconsistent from the line all year. Add in that he's playing in the most important game of his life so far, and its not a surprise.
bajaden
Hall of Famer
No disagreement from me. No need on my part to nic pick the differences between Odom and Jones. I doubt many of us can remember what Odom looked like when he came into the league. My memory was that of very smooth big man with exceptional skills for that position. There are similarities, but in the end, Jones will be whoever he will be..
Sptsjunkie
Starter
That's a good point and one of the hard parts about evaluating guys in college is it can be difficult to distinguish between skill and desire and how a player is being utilized by a coach. IIRC, Gerald Wallace was in a similar situation in college, where his coach utilized him closer to the hoop because of his size and leaping ability, but that diminished his ability to user his driving and perimeter skills.
It will be interesting to see what Jones becomes. Another name I'd throw out there for him is Shawn Marion. Great defender on 3s and stretch 4s. Some post game, but not a true back to the basket player. Can drive and dish, but you don't want to run the O through him. Great rebounder for a 3. Awkward shot, but can hit 3s when open.
Kingster
Hall of Famer
But saying that Jones is a better ball handler than Casspi or Greene isn't saying a whole lot, don't you think? Those are the bottom of the barrel 3s in the entire NBA when it comes to ball handling. Rebounding, yes he's good at that. Hence he's more suited to the PF position closer to the basket. Yes, he could guard a lot of 3s, but he's going to hurt you on the offensive end, unless you just want him to stand there and hit open shots (hopefully).
It seems to me that it's easier for players to improve their shooting than it is their ball handling. I can see Jones developing his inside and outside shooting over time. But improving ball handling dexterity good enough to become an above average 3 in the NBA is a harder nut to crack. I think he's going to have a much harder time overcoming his limitations in that area.
William Blake
Bench
And then Petrie surprises the hell out of everyone and drafts Jan Vesely.
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