Bricklayer
Don't Make Me Use The Bat
You must be kidding. Analytics will tell you he's better than Kyrie Irving and more important than DeMarcus Cousins.
Predict Win Total 2014/15
- Thread starter The Hammer
- Start date
You must be kidding. Analytics will tell you he's better than Kyrie Irving and more important than DeMarcus Cousins.
This statement shows you have absolutely no clue what analytics are. Like holy cow
King Baller
All-Star
OK, I will bite. Please explain how Analytics evaluates Kyrie Irving, IT and DMC.
Bricklayer
Don't Make Me Use The Bat
Indeed.
I mean, IT has a higher RAPM, RPM, and WAR than Cuz, higher TS%, higher Offensive Rating...I was wrong about Win Shares, where IT's late tank/benching allowed Cuz to barely edge him 7.9 to 7.7, he also had a better on/off +/-, and if I remember correctly synergy called him our best man defender. Bit of a mixed bag, Cuz almost approaches IT's greatness in some areas, did have a higher PER, but of course that's old school analytics and not to be trusted like the new tools like RAPM where nobody even knows how they are put together and hence they must be smarter.
uolj
Starter
You say that like there is one thing called "Analytics" that gives a single evaluation of everybody. Analytics is just a way of describing different methods of doing statistics. There are many, many different ways to use analytics to gain information, many of which disagree with each other. And "analytics" doesn't rate those players. People rate those players using analytics.
To sort of answer your question, though, the analytics used in the article include real plus-minus (RPM) and WAR. Thomas has +2.0 RPM and 4.2 WAR (below fellow Suns Dragic +2.9/7.5 and Bledsoe +3.6/7.3). Cousins has +0.9 RPM and 4.0 WAR. Irving has -0.8 RPM and 1.7 WAR. However, the people using those analytics, despite making it clear they like Thomas game, don't even hint that they consider him more important than Cousins or better than Irving.
And of course, the point isn't to blindly spout off random advanced stats as if they tell a full story (like Bricklayer does above). The proper use of those numbers is the same as how you might use points, rebounds or assists. Take them in context to try to add insight to existing information. In the case of that article, the analytics got them to a projected win total that basically matches what oddsmakers expect.
HereWeBoogie
Hall of Famer
The first month of our season is freakin brutal. Warriors/Blazers/Clippers/Mavs/Spurs/Grizzlies/Thunder/Suns/Nuggets. We will either get in a major hole, something like 1-12 or 2-11, and the moral of the team and fans will be in the gutter and things will not looks good for the remainder of the season. Or we will surprise everyone and beat some playoff teams and look like a promising season is ahead
Next 10 games, we have Warriors/Blazers/Clippers/Nuggets/Nuggets/Suns/Thunder/Mavs/Grizz/Spurs
-I think we will win at least 1 game within our first three games. I think it'll be tonight's home opener.
-I think we beat the Nuggets at home because of all their players coming back from injuries and we know how difficult it is..see Carl Landry
-I predict we beat both the Suns and the Thunder. Cuz and Gay will have big games against the Suns. IT will have a huge game too. The Thunder will be KD-less=win??
-For the final 3 games, I think we win at least one of them. I think it'll be either the Mavs or Grizz game.
So I'm predicting 5-5 with a lot of optimism!
Can't believe the home opener is tomorrow!! Go Kings!!
King Baller
All-Star
OK, I asked an honest question and as you stated you "sorta" gave an answer. I quoted The_Jamal and you chose to respond.
I would like to know more about Analytics. If someone could splain it to me without talking down at me it would be much appreciated. But I do realize of course this is an internet discussion forum
Does anyone have a link to a web site with a definitive answer?
Thank you and best regards,
KB
King Baller
All-Star
GO KINGS!!!
So it's the same as meeting a dinosaur on the street: 50/50 chance?
uolj
Starter
Hey now, you can totally re-read my post assuming it's an honest response and not get any "talking down" from it. Of course, when I wrote it there was a tiny bit of snark intended, but only a tiny bit, I swear.OK, I asked an honest question and as you stated you "sorta" gave an answer. I quoted The_Jamal and you chose to respond.
I would like to know more about Analytics. If someone could splain it to me without talking down at me it would be much appreciated. But I do realize of course this is an internet discussion forum
Does anyone have a link to a web site with a definitive answer?
Thank you and best regards,
KB
I did try to answer the question honestly, though. Think of the word "analytics" just like you do the word "statistics" (assuming statistics refers to things like points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, turnovers, etc). Is there a website with a definitive answer to how statistics rates those guys? Not really. There are sites that show the statistics and show that one player has better numbers in some categories and worse in others. You're mostly expected to decide which is better on your own. The same is true for analytics. As Bricklayer showed, there are many different types of analytics. And those are really just "advanced stats", they're not even representative of all analytics. Yet even they disagree on who is "better".
If you're wondering what "analytics" itself really means, it's just a way of taking existing stats and then analyzing how well certain stats predict what happened in the past, then applying it in the future. If, for example, you look and see that teams with three or more All-NBA players have historically won championships more often than those with zero, then you can use that information to infer that the Spurs may be more likely to win it all than the 76ers (all else equal). What analytics people try to do is find relationships like those that aren't already so obvious.
One example is the corner 3 and the mid-range jump shot. Looking at the data, it's clear that on average, players make the mid-range jump shot not much more often than they make the corner 3. But the corner 3 is worth 50% more than the mid-range jumper. So on average, you're going to get more points from the corner 3. The important thing to note is that teams don't just start hoisting up hundreds of corner 3s, because that wouldn't work (the system is too complex for that). Instead that information informs how they set up their offense, so they try to find ways to get people open for corner 3s and reduce (but not eliminate) the number of mid-range jumpers they take. The mid-range jumpers they do take can still be important to the offense, as they may keep the defense from sagging into the paint for example, so the the analytic conclusion isn't intended to be a hard and fast rule. But it provides extra information that can help improve your plays, your roster or whatever.
Anyway, in the end, there really isn't one definitive answer that tells you how analytics rate those guys, as there are too many things that are covered by the term to give an accurate picture. 538 has previews (links: West's worst, West's best, East's worst, East's best) that include a few numbers that provide an overall rating, and basketball-reference has a ton of advanced stats listed that say different things, but really it all depends on the context.
King Baller
All-Star
Hey now, you can totally re-read my post assuming it's an honest response and not get any "talking down" from it. Of course, when I wrote it there was a tiny bit of snark intended, but only a tiny bit, I swear.
I did try to answer the question honestly, though. Think of the word "analytics" just like you do the word "statistics" (assuming statistics refers to things like points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, turnovers, etc). Is there a website with a definitive answer to how statistics rates those guys? Not really. There are sites that show the statistics and show that one player has better numbers in some categories and worse in others. You're mostly expected to decide which is better on your own. The same is true for analytics. As Bricklayer showed, there are many different types of analytics. And those are really just "advanced stats", they're not even representative of all analytics. Yet even they disagree on who is "better".
If you're wondering what "analytics" itself really means, it's just a way of taking existing stats and then analyzing how well certain stats predict what happened in the past, then applying it in the future. If, for example, you look and see that teams with three or more All-NBA players have historically won championships more often than those with zero, then you can use that information to infer that the Spurs may be more likely to win it all than the 76ers (all else equal). What analytics people try to do is find relationships like those that aren't already so obvious.
One example is the corner 3 and the mid-range jump shot. Looking at the data, it's clear that on average, players make the mid-range jump shot not much more often than they make the corner 3. But the corner 3 is worth 50% more than the mid-range jumper. So on average, you're going to get more points from the corner 3. The important thing to note is that teams don't just start hoisting up hundreds of corner 3s, because that wouldn't work (the system is too complex for that). Instead that information informs how they set up their offense, so they try to find ways to get people open for corner 3s and reduce (but not eliminate) the number of mid-range jumpers they take. The mid-range jumpers they do take can still be important to the offense, as they may keep the defense from sagging into the paint for example, so the the analytic conclusion isn't intended to be a hard and fast rule. But it provides extra information that can help improve your plays, your roster or whatever.
Anyway, in the end, there really isn't one definitive answer that tells you how analytics rate those guys, as there are too many things that are covered by the term to give an accurate picture. 538 has previews (links: West's worst, West's best, East's worst, East's best) that include a few numbers that provide an overall rating, and basketball-reference has a ton of advanced stats listed that say different things, but really it all depends on the context.
Thanks for the response. You describe sort of what I have determined from my limited Fan perspective. I am thinking that the teams may take a different approach depending on who is running the show. PDA may look at a player differently than say Danny Ainge. And RC Buford may have yet a different perspective.
The Hammer
All-Star
So... anyone care to revise their predictions?
Consider this an authorized in-season revision opportunity. Ready go.
Consider this an authorized in-season revision opportunity. Ready go.
At this early, it looks like "feelings" cannot be trusted. But I don't know yet, maybe you are right for trusting your feeling.
We are 1-0 now against your seemingly 2nd favorite team Phoenix/IT. That is with Cousins with a relatively weak okay game and fouling out at crucial 4th Q. And may I add that Gay was sick and had an aweful shooting at 5-22?
Let's see what happens the next time they play each other. If Gay wouldn't be sick and Cousins plays at his usual okay game, I am very tempted to predict a blow-out game with the Kings winning before the end of the third Q.
Gosh, I love what's happening to my Kings now a days. I feel like going around and looking for Laker fans just to trash their team!
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Maybe we should make another poll like this (instead of revising our predictions) and see how much this early wins really affect the Sacramento fans?
I suspect we'd see some significantly increased predictions. As for the original vote, I think it serves as a historical reflection of the, shall we say "pessimism" of a well-informed fan base and will be interesting to look back on if we manage to keep this pace (or something resembling it) up.
Uncia03
Starter
Ok...so I didn't vote in the poll...but I will say this.
After having watched a couple of pre-season games and the horribly played loss against Golden State (the semblence of scrappy defense was the only good thing about that game) in the first game I was actually expecting to see this team to get off to a 1-12 start. Yikes!
Now...since it looks as if the defense they are playing is sustainable and it also looks as if there is a lot of room for improvement on the offensive end by a number of our players I feel as if we have a legitimate chance to win any game that we go in to...provided that we go into the game with the same mentality to make it a dog fight and to play the us-vs-the-world mentality. I am most worried about complacency setting in if we continue to win these games and I'm really hoping that all the years of losing will continue to stay fresh in DMC's mind so that they will continue to be hungry for each and every game.
I think that by and large if the poll was re-done you'd see a huge shift in predicted games at about a +10 clip.
After having watched a couple of pre-season games and the horribly played loss against Golden State (the semblence of scrappy defense was the only good thing about that game) in the first game I was actually expecting to see this team to get off to a 1-12 start. Yikes!
Now...since it looks as if the defense they are playing is sustainable and it also looks as if there is a lot of room for improvement on the offensive end by a number of our players I feel as if we have a legitimate chance to win any game that we go in to...provided that we go into the game with the same mentality to make it a dog fight and to play the us-vs-the-world mentality. I am most worried about complacency setting in if we continue to win these games and I'm really hoping that all the years of losing will continue to stay fresh in DMC's mind so that they will continue to be hungry for each and every game.
I think that by and large if the poll was re-done you'd see a huge shift in predicted games at about a +10 clip.
Another win today, even though it's basically against a bottom-8 NBA team right now, and most of the fanbase will officially go into "Championship or bust!" mode.
Another win today, even though it's basically against a bottom-8 NBA team right now, and most of the fanbase will officially go into "Championship or bust!" mode.
Come on. Give "most of the fanbase" a bit more credit. They're already past championship. It's DYNASTY, baby!
kupman
Starter
Check it out. I understood this season before it really even got started.
Where's my chicken dinner?
Chicken Chaser
Bench
Haha, I voted 46-50...
Haha...
Ha.
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Haha...
Ha.
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IfAt1st
Starter
IMO, guessing 26-30 wins again would be a horrible prediction.
It's nigh-impossible that the FO would fire the coach in mid-December again next year, leading to ANOTHER team mutiny by the players. It just couldn't realistically happen again.
Remember, the Kings were beating everyone in the NBA, even with the bench this horrible.
If Demarcus is on the Kings next year and relatively healthy, and if the FO makes even a token effort to get more talent in here (via trade, draft, free-agency, keelhauling, whatever), there is no way they end up with less than 40 wins next year.
Injuries is a highly probable way they'd win less, but with the new arena coming really damn quick, next year is the LAST CHANCE this FO has to make a winner.
My conspiracy theory about business interests taking precedence in the NBA pretty much guarantees the Kings a >=40 win season.
Larry David
Starter
Give this person their prize
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