Predict Win Total 2014/15
- Thread starter The Hammer
- Start date
K
Anywhere between 38-42 wins is a beyond successful season atm, this means he are close to the top 16 teams in the NBA (since the East sucks) and we are moving in the right direction, anything below of 34 wins is a complete fail (depending on Cousins health), and between 34-37 is acceptable for this group.
Those voting that we'll be worse than last year must have forgotten that we started off last season with 3 guys in the starting lineup that couldn't make any of their shots: Thornton, Salmons, and Patterson. We then replaced Thornton with Mclemore who had one of the worst rookie campaigns ever. If our guys even start off the year playing average basketball we will easily finish with a better record.
24 (although I'm hoping for 35). The West got a whole lot better, and although we have a better bench, we really needed to take major steps forward with our starters in order to see an increase in the win column. Lottery teams get out of their hole by upgrading their starting 5, not the bench, but at least Petey D tried mightily this summer to attack this weakness (a welcome change0.
The upcoming draft isn't great, but we could use the asset of a top 5 pick to make a splash in trades, or simply upgrade the talent, which currently consists of two starters and a bunch of question marks.
The upcoming draft isn't great, but we could use the asset of a top 5 pick to make a splash in trades, or simply upgrade the talent, which currently consists of two starters and a bunch of question marks.
K
You've got a 5 game window, where if the team were to win 33 games...it's a complete fail. However, if they win 38 games, it's beyond successful. That's a very narrow window for the possibilities of two extremes. 
This is close. I went with 31-35 to be safe, but anywhere around that mid thirties number seems realistic. I think it's more likely that the team has a really bad year than a really good year, which is why I went with the lower number. That's kind of a good question. Does this team have a higher ceiling, or a lower basement? is lower basement a term?
Things could explode here in a really bad way. Rudy Gay could revert back to the old Rudy Gay, meaning contract talks would die, meaning we ship him off for anything we can get at the trade deadline, resulting in another sub-30 win year.
On the other hand, 40ish wins seems like the absolute highest potential this team could reach. This team gets to 40 wins if everything goes right.
I suppose the higher than highest potential involves a trade we don't know about yet. Hard to really quantify what that would mean.
Things could explode here in a really bad way. Rudy Gay could revert back to the old Rudy Gay, meaning contract talks would die, meaning we ship him off for anything we can get at the trade deadline, resulting in another sub-30 win year.
On the other hand, 40ish wins seems like the absolute highest potential this team could reach. This team gets to 40 wins if everything goes right.
I suppose the higher than highest potential involves a trade we don't know about yet. Hard to really quantify what that would mean.
35 (so I was off by 7)
Why should I be so optimistic and say 35 games? Well I like the move to Collison and Sessions. The defense at PG will improve some, but I believe the ball movement will improve dramatically improving the overall offense. This is primarily an offensive team. The defensive deficiencies have not been addressed. They still have no viable option at power forward. JT is a decent PF to come off the bench but as a starter he has been extremely ineffective his entire career. Carl Landry is a defensive liability who may contribute some on the offensive end. Evans is a rebounder who is not a plus defender. So another year goes bye and Cousins will be alone under the basket trying to rebound and defend the rim. Which will make him more susceptible to foul calls. Until they come up with an answer at PF who is a rim protector, rebounder, and plus defender, the Kings will never win more than 35-40 games. And since there is no good option at backup center (Ryan Hollins ? PULLEEZE !!!), the Kings will always be in foul trouble at the center and/or power forward positions. The SF position really has no standout defender. Caspi has not proven to be a good perimeter defender, but he is a decent team defender. Gay is an average defender at best. He saves his energy for the other end of the court. In a contract year he is going to score first and defend maybe.
I think we all know the gaping hole in the defense is at the SG position. McLemore has not shown that he is going to be a good defender (or offensive player for that matter!) and Stauskas is a rookie who will hopefully become a good 3 and D player eventually. 2 guards around the league will be licking their chops when they play the Kings. Season high scoring every night from the opposing team's 2 guards will negate our nightly advantage at center.
So again, why 35 wins? Well it's the Offense. The Kings have several very good offensive players. In fact the team is made up of primarily offensive players. There are 5 players at least that could get 20 points on any given night. Cousins is in my opinion the best center in the league. When he is right, he is unstoppable in the paint and from about 12 feet in. He is also one of the best passing big men in the league. He is more mobile than 90% of the centers in the league. He is gonna get 25 and 10 just about every night. At power forward we have nothing. JT is not really a scoring threat. Evans is a rebounder and a decent defender, but he is not a scorer. At SF, Gay will be our 2nd scoring option and he will have to score over 20 a game for the team to be competitive. Caspi will score in spurts but he isn't a consistent contributor on offense. We have no one who you can point to as the nightly 3rd scoring option.
The SG position is a gaping hole on the offensive side of the ball as well. We have no idea what we will get scoring wise from Stauskas and McLemore. Stauskas is a legit jump shooter but as a rookie his minutes will be limited. I believe he should start until he is beaten out by McLemore or hits the rookie wall. McLemore is in his 2nd season and if he is ever going to come around it is this year. But you have to admit He has shown no signs of doing so. At PG we have legit scorers in Collison and Sessions. But they are both pass first Point Guards. They will average 35 and 15 combined and that is solid play from the PG position.
On a good night the Kings will dominate in the paint and when Cousins kicks the ball out, the guards and forwards will need to hit their open shots. When Cousins is out they will need to go small, run more, and get transition baskets. If they can do that and play even average team defense, I believe that should equate to approximately 35 wins this year and 3rd in the Pacific Division. I'm a realist and I see the deficiencies our team has. Hopefully they can be addressed at the trade deadline or eventually in the draft.
Why should I be so optimistic and say 35 games? Well I like the move to Collison and Sessions. The defense at PG will improve some, but I believe the ball movement will improve dramatically improving the overall offense. This is primarily an offensive team. The defensive deficiencies have not been addressed. They still have no viable option at power forward. JT is a decent PF to come off the bench but as a starter he has been extremely ineffective his entire career. Carl Landry is a defensive liability who may contribute some on the offensive end. Evans is a rebounder who is not a plus defender. So another year goes bye and Cousins will be alone under the basket trying to rebound and defend the rim. Which will make him more susceptible to foul calls. Until they come up with an answer at PF who is a rim protector, rebounder, and plus defender, the Kings will never win more than 35-40 games. And since there is no good option at backup center (Ryan Hollins ? PULLEEZE !!!), the Kings will always be in foul trouble at the center and/or power forward positions. The SF position really has no standout defender. Caspi has not proven to be a good perimeter defender, but he is a decent team defender. Gay is an average defender at best. He saves his energy for the other end of the court. In a contract year he is going to score first and defend maybe.
I think we all know the gaping hole in the defense is at the SG position. McLemore has not shown that he is going to be a good defender (or offensive player for that matter!) and Stauskas is a rookie who will hopefully become a good 3 and D player eventually. 2 guards around the league will be licking their chops when they play the Kings. Season high scoring every night from the opposing team's 2 guards will negate our nightly advantage at center.
So again, why 35 wins? Well it's the Offense. The Kings have several very good offensive players. In fact the team is made up of primarily offensive players. There are 5 players at least that could get 20 points on any given night. Cousins is in my opinion the best center in the league. When he is right, he is unstoppable in the paint and from about 12 feet in. He is also one of the best passing big men in the league. He is more mobile than 90% of the centers in the league. He is gonna get 25 and 10 just about every night. At power forward we have nothing. JT is not really a scoring threat. Evans is a rebounder and a decent defender, but he is not a scorer. At SF, Gay will be our 2nd scoring option and he will have to score over 20 a game for the team to be competitive. Caspi will score in spurts but he isn't a consistent contributor on offense. We have no one who you can point to as the nightly 3rd scoring option.
The SG position is a gaping hole on the offensive side of the ball as well. We have no idea what we will get scoring wise from Stauskas and McLemore. Stauskas is a legit jump shooter but as a rookie his minutes will be limited. I believe he should start until he is beaten out by McLemore or hits the rookie wall. McLemore is in his 2nd season and if he is ever going to come around it is this year. But you have to admit He has shown no signs of doing so. At PG we have legit scorers in Collison and Sessions. But they are both pass first Point Guards. They will average 35 and 15 combined and that is solid play from the PG position.
On a good night the Kings will dominate in the paint and when Cousins kicks the ball out, the guards and forwards will need to hit their open shots. When Cousins is out they will need to go small, run more, and get transition baskets. If they can do that and play even average team defense, I believe that should equate to approximately 35 wins this year and 3rd in the Pacific Division. I'm a realist and I see the deficiencies our team has. Hopefully they can be addressed at the trade deadline or eventually in the draft.
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Me too.
It is sad and scary we have Malone, instead of an Adelman to coach this seemingly improved team.
Malone is just full of BS. He kind of reminds me of coach Smart.
It is sad and scary we have Malone, instead of an Adelman to coach this seemingly improved team.
Malone is just full of BS. He kind of reminds me of coach Smart.
Ty Corbin with Corliss as lead assistant
I'm going to revise this estimate in the future when we make some kind of mid-season trade which I'm 90% certain we will, but right now I went with 31-35. The west is just too tough right now for me to predict substantial improvement from a wins standpoint. I do expect we're going to play better, but our talent level is right at the bottom of the western conference with Utah, Denver, Minnesota and LA. Almost everyone in the East got better too (sorry Indiana and Miami). Without some kind of injection of talent or a team-carrying MVP caliber season from Cousins, we're headed for another lottery pick in the 5-9 range.
Well, at least Lakers are predicted (via ESPN) to be worse than Kings this season - 24 wins vs. 29 wins.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features...kers-are-even-worse-than-they-were-last-year/
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features...kers-are-even-worse-than-they-were-last-year/
Things like the fivethirtyeight pessimism are all focused on being pissy little analytics nerds upset that the Kings let an analytics superstar like IT go. How can he ever be replaced? they're doomed!!!
Out in the real world not so much, but the failure to acquire a dependable starter at either PF or SG caps us.
Out in the real world not so much, but the failure to acquire a dependable starter at either PF or SG caps us.
