Possible lottery picks in the 2022 draft:
- Thread starter bajaden
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I can definitely see him blocking a lot of shots but I just see him getting abused inside. Obviously Embiid and Jokic would destroy him but I can see him getting muscled pretty easy by many 4s and a lot of strong 3s. I know that players aren't posting up like they used to but having strength in the paint is still key when it comes to defending drives. He just seems too risky to me.
The dude definitely needs to add weight and his frame is a bit concerning but he's a lot like Evan Mobley in that he's stronger than he looks and his defensive instincts are so good that guys aren't just going to roll over him with the same exact move time and time again.
I think Mobley is a better defender but he also doesn't have the skillset that Holmgren has on offense so it sorta balances out there.
I think Mobley is a better defender but he also doesn't have the skillset that Holmgren has on offense so it sorta balances out there.
I think you plug him at the 4 as a weak-side shot blocker/rim protector and put him at the 5 in the right match-ups. Similar to what the Cavs are doing with Mobley. He clearly has the offensive tool-kit to play there.
He has to add weight, but that literally might be the only negative I see in his game. You clearly see the franchise player type talent.
He has to add weight, but that literally might be the only negative I see in his game. You clearly see the franchise player type talent.
I get what you guys are saying but I don't think he's got the lateral quickness to be able to play the 4. Mobley is less of a shot blocker but a better overall defender.
I'm not worried about his offense at all. I just don't want the Kings to be in another situation where they need a unicorn player next to another top draft pick in order for that draft pick to succeed. If the Kings are top 3 and it's Chet vs. one of the other players slated for the top 4, I'm going to choose any of the other 3 over Chet because of that alone. I think he's going to be able to score but I don't know if he will ever be able to put on the muscle to hold his own.
NBA strength is on a whole other level than college strength. I just don't see it projecting but I've been wrong before.
I'm not worried about his offense at all. I just don't want the Kings to be in another situation where they need a unicorn player next to another top draft pick in order for that draft pick to succeed. If the Kings are top 3 and it's Chet vs. one of the other players slated for the top 4, I'm going to choose any of the other 3 over Chet because of that alone. I think he's going to be able to score but I don't know if he will ever be able to put on the muscle to hold his own.
NBA strength is on a whole other level than college strength. I just don't see it projecting but I've been wrong before.
I was trying to be charitable. Chet's body is definitely concern and if he were 7'0" 250lb rather than the reported 190 he is now not only would he go first overall in this draft, he'd probably have gone first overall in last year's class as well. But his body is what it is at this point and I'm choosing to be a bit less uptight about it now that there is a semi-realistic chance we might be in the position to draft him.
Any time you've got a 7 footer with the proportions he has, injuries are going to be a major concern but if we somehow end up with the second overall pick and he's on the board and Jabari's not, he's my pick.
Any time you've got a 7 footer with the proportions he has, injuries are going to be a major concern but if we somehow end up with the second overall pick and he's on the board and Jabari's not, he's my pick.
The crazy thing about Paolo and Chet is that they're almost the complete inverses of each other as NBA prospects. Chet has the defensive skills and perimeter shooting stroke in a concerning frame while Paolo is a defensive question mark interior/mid-range scorer with perimeter shooting questions in a prototypical NBA forward body.
Where you see Zion in Chet, I kind of see Bagley in Banchero.
Where you see Zion in Chet, I kind of see Bagley in Banchero.
For sure. I'm insanely high on Jaden Ivey. He just looks like he's a perfected version of Russ/Ja Morant with his high athleticism/energy play-style, a willing passer, good-great shooter and I think he's shown far more defensive promise than Ja or Jalen Green as recent guards to come out. Just watching him it looks like every aspect of his game is translatable to becoming a star at the next level.
If I had to rank the top 4, it'd be:
1. Jabari Smith
2. Jaden Ivey
3. Chet Holmgren
4. Paolo Banchero
If I had to rank the top 4, it'd be:
1. Jabari Smith
2. Jaden Ivey
3. Chet Holmgren
4. Paolo Banchero
Well, I'm assuming Buddy/Fox are long gone by this point since we're in position to draft these guys (although it still might happen anyway). But I think I'd still go Chet over Ivey at pick 2. Not a big enough gap from them for me to ignore Hali/Mitchell on the squad and I'd make an ever so slight concession on my BPA to build out the starting 5 and a complimentary elite core.
Weird we're discussing this on the same night the Kings played against Kuminga because Banchero seems to be facing a lot of the same criticism/projection issues as he did.
Just looking back through recent Blue Devil history, Tatum had some similar concerns but he was also a better perimeter shooter than Kuminga and has largely defended 4s over the last couple of seasons. Bagley was more of a 4/5 even then than Paolo but was a better athlete than Banchero and has sort of struggled to find a position even if Vlade insisted he could play at the 3. Zion is a 5 when he's not injured.
Admittedly, I haven't watched too much Duke lately and this might just be a product of them already having a pure wing on their roster in AJ Griffin to stick on 3s but I just don't get the feeling Banchero's got enough lateral agility to stick with threes in college, let alone the NBA. He could probably survive on them in spurts but asking him to defend a solid three like Paul George or someone might be asking too much. (Oddly Jabari Smith could probably hang with most 3s and 2s on defense but is probably better served by playing as a 4)
Just looking back through recent Blue Devil history, Tatum had some similar concerns but he was also a better perimeter shooter than Kuminga and has largely defended 4s over the last couple of seasons. Bagley was more of a 4/5 even then than Paolo but was a better athlete than Banchero and has sort of struggled to find a position even if Vlade insisted he could play at the 3. Zion is a 5 when he's not injured.
Admittedly, I haven't watched too much Duke lately and this might just be a product of them already having a pure wing on their roster in AJ Griffin to stick on 3s but I just don't get the feeling Banchero's got enough lateral agility to stick with threes in college, let alone the NBA. He could probably survive on them in spurts but asking him to defend a solid three like Paul George or someone might be asking too much. (Oddly Jabari Smith could probably hang with most 3s and 2s on defense but is probably better served by playing as a 4)
I've been avoiding college basketball this season in favor of watching more Kings games (obviously a mistake) but from my first cursory glance at the top prospects this year, the ones that jumped out the most to me are: (1) Chet Holmgren who I was fully expecting to hate as he looks the part of a super skinny jump shooting big but he's got a natural feel for the game in all areas that's hard to find in a player with his size (2) Jaden Ivey who is just silky smooth with his handle and looks like he has the complete skillset to develop into an elite guard in the NBA and (3) Tari Eason who's got further to go with his offensive skillset than several of the higher-rated wings but he plays like he's got fire in his belly and I can see him developing into that Jimmy Butler style sleeper if he tightens his handle and works on squaring up more consistently on his shot attempts.
Banchero is a 4 and could probably play some small ball 5. I think he's going to be a good player in the NBA, but probably at best, fringe all star. He's a good passer and you can run the ball through him, similar to Sabonis. I would take Holmgren or Smith over him. I think Holmgren used in the right way, especially early in his career can be an impact player. He's one of the best shot blockers I've ever seen. You can't fake him off his feet and his instincts are incredible. Yeah, a Steven Adams can push him around under the basket, but it's a two way street. He'll abuse the hell out of Adams at the other end of the floor. He can shoot the three, hit pullup mid-range two's, or put the ball on the floor and blow right by him. He's also a very good passer.
He'll never look like a physical specimen who lives in the weight room, but I do think he can add 15 to 20 pounds of muscle to his body, maybe more. He's wirey strong, tough, and plays with an edge. All that said, Smith is my favorite player along with Ivey, Griffin, Murray and Davis. All smart players that know how to play. That's not to demean Holmgren or Banchero, it's just a personal bias. I love Johnny Davis game. He's tough as nails, and has literally carried the Wisconsin team on his back this season in a very tough conference. Something Patrick Baldwin can't do in a lesser conference against much poorer competition.
I think sometimes we tend to over think these things. Just give me a player with high basketball IQ, who busts his butt every game, who also happens to be talented and I'm happy!
He'll never look like a physical specimen who lives in the weight room, but I do think he can add 15 to 20 pounds of muscle to his body, maybe more. He's wirey strong, tough, and plays with an edge. All that said, Smith is my favorite player along with Ivey, Griffin, Murray and Davis. All smart players that know how to play. That's not to demean Holmgren or Banchero, it's just a personal bias. I love Johnny Davis game. He's tough as nails, and has literally carried the Wisconsin team on his back this season in a very tough conference. Something Patrick Baldwin can't do in a lesser conference against much poorer competition.
I think sometimes we tend to over think these things. Just give me a player with high basketball IQ, who busts his butt every game, who also happens to be talented and I'm happy!
Chet is also a 19 year old kid. If he were a 22 year old senior in a college program the last 4 years, ok sure, I think you'd probably be pretty concerned that the weight is going to be a problem. But there's plenty of body development time left for him. Even still, he's ripping through college basketball bigs and absolutely dominating on both ends of the court with how skinny he is.
Especially in recent memory with the body transformation Giannis went through as a skinny 18-19 year old kid his rookie season. If Chet could even put on 40% of what Giannis did, that'd significantly up his chances as hitting as a franchise player. I think i'd just rather trust my weight training/nutrition team and believe in one of the most talented big prospects in recent memory.
Especially in recent memory with the body transformation Giannis went through as a skinny 18-19 year old kid his rookie season. If Chet could even put on 40% of what Giannis did, that'd significantly up his chances as hitting as a franchise player. I think i'd just rather trust my weight training/nutrition team and believe in one of the most talented big prospects in recent memory.
Just caught up on the Florida State game for Banchero and came away more impressed. He's certainly more fluid/skilled than Bagley or Tatum at this stage in terms of passing and he's extremely comfortable creating from the perimeter. He was impressive on the glass with a bunch of contested rebounds and great instincts for finding the ball. He's a little bit like Randle in some ways with his physicality inside, but I think there's much better shot creation ability than Randle had early his career (or even now honestly). That's probably his best feature and where the franchise potential comes from; not many dudes at 6'10/250 with his on-ball handle/shot creation ability. While not an overwhelming athlete, it's good enough to when paired with the size that he's hard to keep from getting to his spots. In a way, how he scores and moves is kind of similar to Luka where he's extremely good at using his size/weight/fluid movement to get to where he wants on the floor, despite not having overwhelming above the rim type athleticism.
I see the star potential on offense and "good enough" on defense at the 4 for him to hit that franchise player ceiling. He needs to be a more consistent shooter, but there's some seriously intriguing feature offensive scorer type stuff here.
I see the star potential on offense and "good enough" on defense at the 4 for him to hit that franchise player ceiling. He needs to be a more consistent shooter, but there's some seriously intriguing feature offensive scorer type stuff here.
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If he had the frame to hold the weight, I'd be with you. But his shoulders are appallingly narrow, and that's not changing at this point. I don't hink he has the skeleton to be an NBA player. The skill is there, but he is going to be broken into pieces like a toothpick. Most kids develop a lot of muscle between 19 and 25, but for Chet, there's just nowhere to put it.
I'm quite impressed with Banchero. Already has an NBA body, and as a rare skill, has a super low between-the-legs/behind-the-back dribble that allows him to face down an opposing defender (as opposed to backing him down). It allows him to push his way into the paint and then take a completely rhythm, no-turnaround stepback jumper that at 6'10" you can't stop, and unlike a classic turnaround, he's already had eyes on the rim and doesn't have to do a 180. I mean, the midrange is dead, but it's only dead until a player can hit it at 65%, at which point it's way, way, alive. And I think Banchero can do that.
The question I have on Banchero is whether he can hit a three. And the thing I see is that his form on the three is way more 'heave' than his form on the midrange. It doesn't have to be. He's 6'10" and huge, he can totally stroke from three, but he half-heaves. It's probably learned, from when he was a kid and couldn't stroke from that distance. Get that form fixed, and damn, he could be something.
The question I have on Banchero is whether he can hit a three. And the thing I see is that his form on the three is way more 'heave' than his form on the midrange. It doesn't have to be. He's 6'10" and huge, he can totally stroke from three, but he half-heaves. It's probably learned, from when he was a kid and couldn't stroke from that distance. Get that form fixed, and damn, he could be something.
Yeah, I think I just didn't have enough film work on Banchero yet from my previous posts, but he's just far more advanced than I initially anticipated in basically all facets on offense. You can't teach his on-ball skillset with the 6'10/250 frame. The passing consistency isn't there, but he at least has playmaking creation potential which just soars his offensive. Completely agree on the shot; if pulls a Tatum and adds the 3 ball to his arsenal, you can see top-10 in the NBA type offensive potential.
Defensively, he is never going to be a rim protector, but I don't see anything that shows he won't be able to stick with NBA 4's. Just a lot of lack of consistency, but similar to the passing, you see him have just really great defensive possessions with quality shot contests.
The top 4 of this class is really fun and I think rivals or potentially even better than last years top 4. I still take Jabari #1 with the true 3/4 flex wing upside that no one else in this class has, but the #2 spot is a damn interesting discussion.
Defensively, he is never going to be a rim protector, but I don't see anything that shows he won't be able to stick with NBA 4's. Just a lot of lack of consistency, but similar to the passing, you see him have just really great defensive possessions with quality shot contests.
The top 4 of this class is really fun and I think rivals or potentially even better than last years top 4. I still take Jabari #1 with the true 3/4 flex wing upside that no one else in this class has, but the #2 spot is a damn interesting discussion.