Jerry Buss is a great owner, and I don't see him letting his team miss the playoffs. Count the Lakers is, barring an extreme injury to Mr. Bryant.
San Antonio is the favorite for the top spot in the West. Minnesota (health withstanding) is probably right behind them.
Three through five gets interesting, with the Kings, the Lakers, the Mavs (who knows how they'll look at the end of training camp, much less the end of the season) the Rockets, the Nuggets, the Suns and the Jazz all having a shot at those spots, depending on how they pan out.