Playing time for Justin Williams
- Thread starter OptimusRhyme
- Start date
What?!?!!? Are you implying that Grant and Jerry don't always tell it like it really is?
CalBears1
G-League
No, it was the post game show that I was listening to on the radio as I was driving home from the game.
Gary
All-Star
How about Mikki plays 10x better defense, and knows what he is doing on the floor. Justin does not (yet). I am not saying Mikki is the end all, but he is a better fit for this team at the moment than Justin. I do like your analysis though.
Not sure what it is with Mikki. Stats wise he just sucks, but overall he has a higher BBall IQ than Justin. If we put Williams out on the floor he would probably average better numbers than Mikki, but I have a feeling we will still eb talking about how the Kings give up a ton of baskets in the paint.
I think that if Mikki were a great defender, or even a good overall player, his +/- numbers and Roland Rating would be better than Douby's. But they aren't, they're really bad. The only players with worse figures are Hawes, and guys that were permabenched or waived.
So I guess we differ there. I like Mikki's attitude, but I'm not at all impressed with his game.
Part of Mikki's game simply doesn't show up in the stats. How do you account for taking a charge and causing a player to commit an offensive foul? I'm not saying he's a monster but he does clog the lane and take a charge - and that's something Justin just can't do.
That's why you look at the +/- figures: does the team play better when he's on the court, or off? In Mikki's case, the answer has been "off," his -6.4 is almost enough to cancel out our most positive player, Kevin (+7.6). When he was getting significant minutes, Justin's was always in the positive range. Not usually as good as Kevin's, but still, a lot better than -6.4.
Justin does rack up negative +/- ratings when sent in for 1-2 minutes at a time, he often gets nothing done during those short visits to the floor. I think that's an argument for leaving him in longer, although reasonable minds may differ.
The major flaw with the +/- IMHO is that it doesn't take into account the other substitutions that may be made at the same time. I have more faith in my opinions if they're based on actually watching the games. Stats are helpful, but having majored in math a long time ago, I know how meaningless they can be and how you can use them to "prove" just about anything if you go about it the right way.
And the bottom line is that right now we don't know what Justin would do with more PT for the simple reason he's not getting it. Projecting his numbers out is not really valid. If he gets more PT and does, in fact, show that he can be productive then I would think we could start using the projections. Until he's actually done it THIS YEAR with this team, however, I simply don't trust the theory.
And it's a conundrum for the coaching staff. I have to believe he's simply not working up to what they would like to see or they would find a way to put him on the court more.
And the bottom line is that right now we don't know what Justin would do with more PT for the simple reason he's not getting it. Projecting his numbers out is not really valid. If he gets more PT and does, in fact, show that he can be productive then I would think we could start using the projections. Until he's actually done it THIS YEAR with this team, however, I simply don't trust the theory.
And it's a conundrum for the coaching staff. I have to believe he's simply not working up to what they would like to see or they would find a way to put him on the court more.
Gary
All-Star
Agree with that. Mikki stays in front of his player, while Justin plays more of an " 'ole!" type defense and tries to block his shot after he gets by him.
At this point though I am on the fence who would fit better for this team. I am leaning toward Mikki, but I believe Justin has the potential to offer something that Mikki can't like rebounding, and blocked shots. If only he could stay in front of his man, or stay near his man at all.
Bottom line is both of them are bench players at best... Both have huge short comings, and not a lot of upside.
Gary
All-Star
The biggest thing about Moore is staying in front of the player he's defending. Putting his arms out, and not letting him by w/o attempting to take the charge.
Williams lets the player he's defending by, and hopes he blocks his shot.
Jerryaki
Starter
off topic, do you have a link to how these work? i didn't see one readily on yahoo. also, what is the "BA" stat? thanks in advance.
AyeCarly
G-League
I have the same beef about +/- and per 48 stats. They don't take into account who the player is getting such stats against, usually the second team in most cases or tired starters. They are theoretical at best. However, I go by what I see.
And I see Mikki fumble balls at least twice a game which negates the 2 to 3 times he takes a charge. I am amazed his turnover avg is less than 2. They must be giving these turnovers to the passer, assuming it was a bad pass. Yes he is a savvy player and he knows how to get to the open spot for easy dunks and instinctively follows up missed shots (and take charges however negated by his horrible hands). That to me is the extent of what he can do as his stats show this. High field goal %, 8 pts per game usually spoon fed to him, and not quite 6 rebounds per game in 29 mins.
I just want to see what Williams can do in that same 29 mins (and given time to learn from his mistakes). Our last starting PF averaged 20 and 10 sure he was a number one draft pick (this was also after 10 years in the league), but to have a guy average half those numbers at the same position says Webber is twice as good as Mikki and we let him go. Hell, Webber averaged 9.9 pts and 6.3 rebs in 25 mins and he is a hobbled player. Is Mikki hobbled? I appreciate what Mikki does but he isn't what I expect out of a PF.
gunks
Hall of Famer
The one in the boxscores? I do believe thats 'blocks against'. So if a player has one or two of those in a game it means they got stuffed
Jerryaki
Starter
So basically if you see a number like 4 or 6 or 12 it means the player has all the moves inside of Kenny Thomas?
And yes, I'm sorry and I know that was bad. I couldn't help myself... Whenever I think of soft lay-ups and/or not finishing at the hoop I think of K-9.
Yeah, I think that's what "BA" is. Not so sure what it's supposed to prove, I can think of a lot more useful stats. Maybe that's why nobody but Yahoo seems to list it.
The other stats are all attempts to judge how much a player hurts or helps their team.
+/- shows whether or not your player's TEAM was as productive as their opponent. Contrary to popular belief, it has little to do with who a particular player may be facing off against (unless the matchup is so lopsided as to strongly influence the course of the game). It just shows whether your team, or the opposing team was winning when you were in the game. If they send you in for 10 minutes, and during that time your team scores 20 and the opposing team scores 22, your +/- rating for the game is -2.
On court/off court (at which Mikki also lags Justin, and, for that matter, Hawes) also shows whether your team is winning or losing when a particular player's on the floor, but does so per 100 possessions. Like +/-, it reflects the team's success as a whole; if your team is always losing, almost every player on the roster may have a negative score, although it should still help to sort out which players are relatively less crummy. Both of these stats can also be influenced by positional realities; if you are Beno Udrih, you've had a relatively dandy stat all year, because when you were off the floor the team has had no PG at all. So a high rating for Beno doesn't mean that he's necessarily a great player, but it does mean that he's been vital to the team's performance. In positions where proper rotations are possible, on court/off court stats will be influenced by how good or bad the teammates who sub for you are. If you're KG's backup, it will always look bad. If you're splitting time with KT, it'll always look good.
Roland Rating is an attempt to get a more balanced and useful +/- stat. It's sometimes known as "net +/-," and is calculated by team points per 48 when a player's on the court, minus team points per 48 when the player's off court.
In short, all 3 of these stats are ways to try to judge a player's usefulness to his specific team. Because they overlook the usual stuff like points and rebounds, it is possible that a truly stunning help defender, who never made an assist, rebound, steal, block or point, could yet have positive scores on all of them. It's also normal for a player who puts up big numbers, but who hogs the ball, shows poor judgment, and generally hurts their team to have a very negative rating. This distinguishes these stats from older ones, like PER, which are 90% offensive, do not show any "intangibles," and do not show whether, overall, you're helping your team or making it worse.
The other stats are all attempts to judge how much a player hurts or helps their team.
+/- shows whether or not your player's TEAM was as productive as their opponent. Contrary to popular belief, it has little to do with who a particular player may be facing off against (unless the matchup is so lopsided as to strongly influence the course of the game). It just shows whether your team, or the opposing team was winning when you were in the game. If they send you in for 10 minutes, and during that time your team scores 20 and the opposing team scores 22, your +/- rating for the game is -2.
On court/off court (at which Mikki also lags Justin, and, for that matter, Hawes) also shows whether your team is winning or losing when a particular player's on the floor, but does so per 100 possessions. Like +/-, it reflects the team's success as a whole; if your team is always losing, almost every player on the roster may have a negative score, although it should still help to sort out which players are relatively less crummy. Both of these stats can also be influenced by positional realities; if you are Beno Udrih, you've had a relatively dandy stat all year, because when you were off the floor the team has had no PG at all. So a high rating for Beno doesn't mean that he's necessarily a great player, but it does mean that he's been vital to the team's performance. In positions where proper rotations are possible, on court/off court stats will be influenced by how good or bad the teammates who sub for you are. If you're KG's backup, it will always look bad. If you're splitting time with KT, it'll always look good.
Roland Rating is an attempt to get a more balanced and useful +/- stat. It's sometimes known as "net +/-," and is calculated by team points per 48 when a player's on the court, minus team points per 48 when the player's off court.
In short, all 3 of these stats are ways to try to judge a player's usefulness to his specific team. Because they overlook the usual stuff like points and rebounds, it is possible that a truly stunning help defender, who never made an assist, rebound, steal, block or point, could yet have positive scores on all of them. It's also normal for a player who puts up big numbers, but who hogs the ball, shows poor judgment, and generally hurts their team to have a very negative rating. This distinguishes these stats from older ones, like PER, which are 90% offensive, do not show any "intangibles," and do not show whether, overall, you're helping your team or making it worse.
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Doubtful, since the managers of most teams keep an eye on stats like these as well, and they probably watch the games.
Sure, all stats could be called that. Points are a way for refs to reduce subjective opinions about game quality into something we can quantify. We could just have the audience vote on who played a prettier game, I suppose, and skip all that point stuff.
Glenn
Hall of Famer
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