Our Chances......

[piksi]

For some of You that might be new around here.

With Kings - there is always a "Finley factor" that needs to be included in any kind of calculations involving Kings - which makes any predictions pretty much
a waste of time.

The biggest problem with "Finley factor" is that - it is not wheather it will be needed - it is just the matter of time.

 

[Kev.in]

The title of official downer has been given to kev.in... congrats

I'm just talking facts, reality. Nothing made up or exaggerated. If reality is a downer for you, then put me on ignore and go back to celebrating what you think could now be a division champ and conference finalist.

 

[Kev.in]

47-52 wins? I think we improved to more than that, i mean yes the suns still have a good team but i just dont see them winning the division this year with the loss of richardson and johnson.

On paper, lots of teams think they're much improved right now. We'll have to wait and see how all that works out. Injuries happen, a bad call here or there costs you a game or two, a couple of surprise teams emerge and it's a dogfight just like every other season. The Suns have lost a couple of guys, but they still have Nash, Marion and Stoudemire. It's a league of star power and the Suns still have more star power than us, plus they've added some tough defensive minded role players. They probably won't click for 62 wins again, but they're not just going to just fall off the map.

 

[Venom]

I predict we get the 6 seed and lose in the first round in 5 or 6 games. I think the Suns win the Pacific, but the rest is a crapshoot. The Warriors are poised for a breakout season. The Clippers all of a sudden have a nice blend of youth and veteran leadership. Seattle will probably fall back into the pack since it is not a contract year for Ray Allen, but they could maintain their level play. And the Lakers brought back Jackson and added some players. Despite all our acquisitions, I would still not be shocked to see this team miss the playoffs. Sans Webber and Vlade, I don't know how much heart this team has.

 

[Kings113]

Seattle won't have their great, deep bench they had last season. Aside from the guys who have left already, there are 2-3 more to be gone.

I think it's way too early to predict how any team will do in the post-season besides the Spurs/Heat/Pistons. Though there is a bit of uncertainity there with Flip now at Detroit.

 

[CruzDude]

The Wild Wild West as I see it this early will dominate the east except for Detroit and Miami:

SPURS (but not as strong as last year)
SUNS (also not as strong losing Joe Johnson apparently)
KINGS (much stronger, more rebounding, more defense, good chemistry)
ROCKETS (assuming Yao keeps getting better and more agressive and if he gets more touches they could be 1 or 2)
WARRIORS (they were one of the strongest teams last 30 games last year. If chemistry is really good, they can be a 5 or 6)
NUGGETS (should be here but hard to figure)
DALLAS (should be here as well but Cuban could create a mess if he spends to get 6 or 7 all star types who all want the ball. Too much year-to-year tinkering)
CLIPS or SONICS (clips coming up, sonics not going anywhere but they do have Ray Allen)
LAKERS will need at least a year to learn the Triangle and with so many new and young players.
JAZZ could hover near bottom but could be a suprise if players match up OK and Kirilenko gets healthy.
BLAZERS also could compete with Jazz for the bottom

Anyway for mid-August this is a start.

 

[G_M]

Despite all our acquisitions, I would still not be shocked to see this team miss the playoffs. Sans Webber and Vlade, I don't know how much heart this team has.

WOW!

I would be SHOCKED(MAJOR injuries aside) if this team missed the playoffs. I think you could make a pretty good argument that the Kings RIGHT NOW have the best or second best offensive team in the West.

The Kings have five proven NBA players in their starting line-up right now. Again. I'm not talking playoffs or anything else I'm just talking about getting into the playoffs. Too many guys on the team with soemthing to prove this year.

 

[DocHolliday]

Something that got me thinking this morning while listening to the insiders is, SAR already has a higher assist average than Miller from what they said at least. When Miller came to Sac is assists increased. Sar is known for being a very unselfish player. This maybe the PF to bring back the excitement, cut and slash back to the High post offense. THis is the first move I've been REALLY excited about in a while. I can't wait to see how it comes together, and how the roster shapes up once it's carved in stone.

 

[Bricklayer]

Something that got me thinking this morning while listening to the insiders is, SAR already has a higher assist average than Miller from what they said at least. When Miller came to Sac is assists increased. Sar is known for being a very unselfish player. This maybe the PF to bring back the excitement, cut and slash back to the High post offense. THis is the first move I've been REALLY excited about in a while. I can't wait to see how it comes together, and how the roster shapes up once it's carved in stone.

SAR does have a decent assist average (albeit boosted by his earlier Sf years), and I would guestimate he can probably get 3.5 or so in our system. There was no doubt that was the attraction -- SF skills in a semi-big man. Not sure where SAR as unselfish player came from though. Neither the worst, but certainly not the best in that regard. Likes to shoot much more than pass, and has had a habit of complaining over the years.

Couple of random points:
1) should be noted that SAR gets a decent number of assists, but has a negative career assist/TO ratio. That's not all on his passing, as he's also a major offensive option and so picks some up on offensive moves and fouls, but still is a far cry from a more intuitive passer like Brad who goes about 2.5ast to 1.4TO.
2) Whereas a major part of Brad's passing surge with us was because all of a sudden he was given many more chances to handle and make decisions, SAR has been "the man" on many of his crappy teams, and has always had the ball probably more often than he will get it for us with all these options.

 

[Venom]

The Wild Wild West as I see it this early will dominate the east except for Detroit and Miami:

SPURS (but not as strong as last year)
SUNS (also not as strong losing Joe Johnson apparently)
KINGS (much stronger, more rebounding, more defense, good chemistry)
ROCKETS (assuming Yao keeps getting better and more agressive and if he gets more touches they could be 1 or 2)
WARRIORS (they were one of the strongest teams last 30 games last year. If chemistry is really good, they can be a 5 or 6)
NUGGETS (should be here but hard to figure)
DALLAS (should be here as well but Cuban could create a mess if he spends to get 6 or 7 all star types who all want the ball. Too much year-to-year tinkering)
CLIPS or SONICS (clips coming up, sonics not going anywhere but they do have Ray Allen)
LAKERS will need at least a year to learn the Triangle and with so many new and young players.
JAZZ could hover near bottom but could be a suprise if players match up OK and Kirilenko gets healthy.
BLAZERS also could compete with Jazz for the bottom

Anyway for mid-August this is a start.

Which moves made us stronger, improved defense, and with more rebounding? In aggregate, the team we began the year with and the team to date are quite similar. We have no idea how the chemistry will play out. Wells, the one sterling addition this year, has been a chemistry wrecker before. Peja is more than capable of pouting. SAR has never been on a good team.

Why are the Spurs not as strong as last year? Or the Suns? They were always a Nash injury away from .500 ball, and they're in the same boat now. Johnson is a max player in my view, but his departure does not change anything significantly for this year. In 2-3 years, JJ leaving will signify the beginning of the end, but that collapse is still down the road.

What changed to make the Rockets worse than us? Or the Mavs? And the Nuggets should be solid all year, instead of just half a season.

I think you have the Warriors in the correct spot, but why do the Lakers need at least a year to learn the Triangle? Phil is the master of the quick turnaround. And the triangle is not that complicated. It will take our new guys longer to learn the intricacies of the Princeton set.

The Clips and Sonics are wild cards, I agree. But it would not surprise to see both have good seasons. I doubt the Sonics repeat their performance of last year, considering they lost Daniels (James is a joke), but it's possible. And the Clips could really surprise with a guy like Cassell in the mix.

I just don't think that the playoffs are guaranteed for this Kings team as constructed. I mean, they should make it, but I would not bet on it.

 

[Bballkingsrock]

It is obvoiusly to early to tell. Many teams have not finsished their offseason. But if I had to predict something, I was thinking the 3rd or 4th seed behinf the Suns and Spurs. And maybe Houston.

 

[uolj]

Something that got me thinking this morning while listening to the insiders is, SAR already has a higher assist average than Miller from what they said at least. When Miller came to Sac is assists increased. Sar is known for being a very unselfish player. This maybe the PF to bring back the excitement, cut and slash back to the High post offense.

Their stats are a little dubious. The two are pretty close if you compare Abdur-Rahim's best years with Vancouver to Miller before he came to Sac on a per 48 minute basis, but Miller did clearly have better assist stats overall, even before he came here.

It will be interesting to see how well Abdur-Rahim runs the high-post offense, assuming he does a lot. What I like is that unlike Divac, Miller or post-injury Webber, I expect Abdur-Rahim to be able to create from the high-post when no passes are available. I still expect people to complain about holding the ball too much or not passing enough out of that position, because it doesn't sound like Abdur-Rahim is as good of an actual passer as Webber or Divac and so will be less likely to make the difficult passes and more likely to create. I personally don't think that would be a bad thing, but I expect others will.

 

[LPKingsFan]

Actually, Miller will likely be the one in the high post. Adelman said he's planning to use SAR as a low post player, an inside threat that he says we've been lacking since pre-injury Webb. With Miller having manned the high post for us before, and with his passing and jumper, I see no reason for that to change.

 

[Kings113]

SAR's low-post/inside game will definitely be utilized.

 

[VF21]

While I am still somewhat skeptical as to just what SAR brings to the mix, I will go out on a limb and make the following prediction:

We here at Kingsfans.com are not going to be bored. There's going to be plenty to talk about!

 

[JonBoy418]

I can see the Kings picking up the 4th seed in the West with them taking the Pacific Division crown.

The Higher ups in my opinion (in no particular order):

Spurs, Dallas, Houston

The Suns are going to fall flat on their face this upcoming season. They lost Richardson, Johnson, Hunter and gained who? Kurt Thomas. It is going to change their whole enitre team dynamic not to mention after earning the 1st seed last year, they won't be surprising any teams this year.

Thomas is on this team for pure defense purposes. He has marginal offense abilities and he will slow the team down just enough to take them out of last year's element. Not to mention a huge gaping hole at SG now that Johnson is gone. Who ever plugs that whole (Jim Jackson?) that will cause the bench to be very very weak. (Don't forget with Hunter and Voskuhl gone, they are paper thin in the front court).

They have lost 2/5 starters from last year and have arguable downgraded in 2/5 spots. That changes a whole team's identity and it will definately change the Suns for the worse.

 

[Kings113]

They also got Raja Bell, who is a very solid swing man, and is taking over the SG spot now that Johnson is gone. They used the MLE on him, 29 million for 5-years. Also got a decent player in Boris Diaw from the Johnson trade. They really need a back-up PG unless Barbosa improves/impresses.

Their bench is gonna be weaker than last season, or just as.

Currently is: Jim Jackson, Barbosa, Diaw, Dijon Thompson, Lucas Tischer (undraftee or their 2nd round pick, not sure if he is signed though). That's it.

With Scott Padgett/Pat Burke needing to sign deals they agreed to, and Outlaw/McCarty/Paul Shirley free-agents, who all but Outlaw seem unlikely to comeback. All three are unrestricted free-agents.

Suns obviously aren't going be as good, but they'll be around the middle/bottom of the west near seasons end.

 

[T[MaC]]

Well...I definitely don't wish anyone a career-ending injury, moreso just for our winning.

But, as indicated by the frowns at the end of my post, Im pretty frustrated with the big injuries that we seem to have each year.

Here's to an injury-free(gasp) season instead.

 

[LPKingsFan]

I can see the Kings picking up the 4th seed in the West with them taking the Pacific Division crown.

Well, if the Kings do pull off the Pacific Division title, they automatically get one of the top 3 berths.

 

[sActOwnGal]

I think the Kings have a good chance of winning the Pacific this upcoming season, but it depends on if the Suns plan to make any moves since they lost Joe Johnson this summer. If the Suns decide to stay put with the roster that they have now, than I am certain that the Kings will win the Pacific. I don't think the Clippers or the Lakers will contend for the Pacific. Golden State inproved a lot but aren't at that level with the Suns or the Kings quite yet. I don't see the Kings getting past the second round of the playoffs though, because there are a better teams in the West that the Kings have to get past. I don't see them getting past Houston or San Antonio to get out of the west.

 

[Kings113]

I think the Kings have a good chance of winning the Pacific this upcoming season, but it depends on if the Suns plan to make any moves since they lost Joe Johnson this summer. If the Suns decide to stay put with the roster that they have now, than I am certain that the Kings will win the Pacific. I don't think the Clippers or the Lakers will contend for the Pacific. Golden State inproved a lot but aren't at that level with the Suns or the Kings quite yet. I don't see the Kings getting past the second round of the playoffs though, because there are a better teams in the West that the Kings have to get past. I don't see them getting past Houston or San Antonio to get out of the west.

Raja Bell's the replacement for Johnson, a part of getting him was for insurance too, incase Johnson did leave, which of course he did. I think Phoenix will add one or two more players to their bench, as showed above, they can't go with that for their bench.

I think we'd have a chance to beat the Rockets if we faced them in the playoffs.

 

[King4Life]

Seattle will not be as good without Antonio Daniels, "Big Fella" Jerome James, and most importantly Nate McMillan.

Houston will be stronger with Stromile Swift and I think they will make another move. ...maybe get Nick Van Exel who already gave the Kings trouble in the past ..or pick up Latrell Sprewell ..

Dallas is still going to be a tough team to beat.

Phoenix will not be as good offensively, but the combination of Amare, Nash, Marion are more athletic and quicker then the Kings. Amare will still score at will and he's probably getting even better.

The Spurs are still the Spurs and Miami has gotten better.

Detroit won't be as good as last year, but they play defense and that's enough to scare the Kings.

Indiana has Artest back. Nothing more to be said there.


I think there's too much optimism about the Kings' current line-up. It's a solid improvement over last year and Petrie should be commended for the work he's done. However, Sacramento's ability to defeat Houston, Dallas, and Phoenix is up in the air. Beating San Antonio is out of the question.

 

[BobbyJ_for3!]

I think there's too much optimism about the Kings' current line-up. It's a solid improvement over last year and Petrie should be commended for the work he's done. However, Sacramento's ability to defeat Houston, Dallas, and Phoenix is up in the air. Beating San Antonio is out of the question.

sure, you can say SA is out of the question on paper, but it is yet to be seen how SAR and Bonzi play in our system, and how the other older players react and do around the new additions. Also, Hart is more of a legit backup than House, not that I didn't like House, and no disrespect to his game. Actually, who knows, maybe Hart will crash and burn and Ronnie Price will be the answer. Or Price will just offer valuable resting time for Bibby and Hart. Also, Kevin Martin has most likey improved a lot, and we really don't know how Garcia will fit in, even if Adelman has never played rookies all that well before. Also, we don't know if we will retain Evans or Songaila, even though only Songaila seems plausible right now, and we don't know if Barnes will come back or how Sampson will do. We can say what we want about the Kings right here and right now, and I'm not suggesting we stop speculating either way (after all it is TDOS), but at this point, there is no question in my mind that there isn't even a question to be out of.

Dynamics, defense, stability. All three have changed, or are and will change.

This whole thing is like watching a nephew or neice grow up. You don't really have much control over how they do, but you hope for the best and talk with the family about them, trying to see how they will become who they will be.

Don't let the nephew/neice say uncle.

 

[Kings113]

sure, you can say SA is out of the question on paper, but it is yet to be seen how SAR and Bonzi play in our system, and how the other older players react and do around the new additions. Also, Hart is more of a legit backup than House, not that I didn't like House, and no disrespect to his game. Actually, who knows, maybe Hart will crash and burn and Ronnie Price will be the answer. Or Price will just offer valuable resting time for Bibby and Hart. Also, Kevin Martin has most likey improved a lot, and we really don't know how Garcia will fit in, even if Adelman has never played rookies all that well before. Also, we don't know if we will retain Evans or Songaila, even though only Songaila seems plausible right now, and we don't know if Barnes will come back or how Sampson will do. We can say what we want about the Kings right here and right now, and I'm not suggesting we stop speculating either way (after all it is TDOS), but at this point, there is no question in my mind that there isn't even a question to be out of.

Dynamics, defense, stability. All three have changed, or are and will change.

This whole thing is like watching a nephew or neice grow up. You don't really have much control over how they do, but you hope for the best and talk with the family about them, trying to see how they will become who they will be.

Don't let the nephew/neice say uncle.

Agreed. Though I think Songaila is gone, and the bench is gonna be different, of course.

I'm not scared of Phoenix. I love Amare though.

Houston's gonna be a pretty good deal better than last year now that their core guys have had a season together, and the addition of Swift, at least one guard. Not like they'll be unbeatable or anything though, but better.

Dallas will still be a strong team, possibly some better with Avery as coach.

Phoenix will still be tough (to beat), and very good, but not like last season.

Seattle will be good/real solid, but not like last season. Their bench won't be like it was last year due to already losing a few guys, w/ 3-4 more to come. Which was a big part of their success.

Nuggets are gonna be great. Their depth, balance, athleticism, and Karl.

Kings will be really good/great, and stronger than last season.

Warriors will be improved, and a good, scrappy team.

Heat will be a good deal better.

Pistons will still be real strong.

Spurs will still be tremendous.

 

[loopymitch]

For some of You that might be new around here.

With Kings - there is always a "Finley factor" that needs to be included in any kind of calculations involving Kings - which makes any predictions pretty much
a waste of time.

The biggest problem with "Finley factor" is that - it is not wheather it will be needed - it is just the matter of time.

Sorry to digress but where'd he end up anyway?

 

[Greenpoint]

Sorry if this has been talked about already.This is my first post. I just read this on espninsider and got so mad I had to put it up. Maybe I'm just upset about someone raining on an already sub-par parade. That said, I am trying to be as optomistic about the situation as possible but this didn't help... I mean really!! Mitch Richmond Era?!

ESPNInsider
CHRIS BROUSSARD
WEBLOG

"Now it looks like Abdur-Rahim could be headed to Sacramento, where he could end up extending his career-long non-playoff appearance streak.

In a tough, deep and improving Western Conference, the Kings appear to be slipping back into the Mitch Richmond era. If Coach Rick Adelman gets them into the playoffs, he should be saluted. Not saying they'll definitely be on the sidelines come late April, but I wouldn't be surprised. "

http://insider.espn.go.com/insider/magazine/magBlogArchive?id=2080176&month=aug

 

[captain bill]

That man is a fool. Saying the Kings won't go far, or not even out of the first round, is one thing. Saying we're unlikely to make the playoffs is just stupid.

 

[BobbyJ_for3!]

That man is a fool. Saying the Kings won't go far, or not even out of the first round, is one thing. Saying we're unlikely to make the playoffs is just stupid.

Agreed. 100%.

 

[BigWaxer]

Chris WHO?

 

[Venom]

Do the Suns still have Nash, Marion, and Amare? Then they are still better than the Kings. People seem to use the Kings as a blueprint for the only way of winning. Depth means nothing if your best guys are vastly inferior to the other team's Top 3. The Suns got better at defense, which should scare everybody. And Thomas is NICE in the post, plus can stick the 15-18 footer. He will give Miller fits, on top of Amare destroying any PF we try to throw at him. Now, losing Johnson is going to hurt them big in 2 years when Nash is winding down and Amare's contract is up, but not this year.