Well this thread has certainly taken on a life of its own
Its just basketball, I'm not sure where the heat is coming from. I've already said my piece on Rudy Gay so I don't think there's any point in rehashing. There is something I want to address here though:
On TS% in general:
I really really really wish I could have 5 minutes alone in a room with whoever it was who "invented" TS%. I have always loved the advanced stat mantra that mushing together a bunch of REAL stats into one big lumpy combo stat was the key to truth, rather than obscurification. But in the case of TS% its doubly worse, because it has elevated "efficiency" to a status it does not, and never has deserved. Efficiency is all well and good. Rather have an efficient guy than a non-efficient one. But robbed of context not only does it tell you little, but because it attracts too many idiots who don't know or understand the game and get hold of it as a safety blanket, it is frequently elevated up as THE trait to have. Gotta go get me some TS%. And the laugh of it is by far the best ways to have TS% are the very most untalented fat dude at the Y ways to accomplish anything on a basketball court -- which of course the TS% makers would know if they had ever played the sport. Here's TS%: alley oop dunks, three point shots (preferably open spot shots), and FT shooting = yay! Pathetic. And it just doesn't match up to reality on the court. It just doesn't. Kevin Martin notoriously had a higher TS% than Michael Jordan. Paul George has a TS% of .547 for a title contender. LaMarcus Aldridge has a TS% of .513 this year and his team has never been better. It just doesn't tell the story its proponents wish it would.
Yikes
*All* stats require context. FG%, PPG, APG, BPG, everything. TS% is just another tool to use. A pretty useful one at that, because scoring efficiency *should* take into account the extra value of threes and free throws. And I think even you know what it is about:
Efficiency is all well and good. Rather have an efficient guy than a non-efficient one.
Exactly! Nobody is busting out a list of the TS% leaders and saying that these are the league's premier players. Just like nobody is taking out a list of FG% leaders, seeing DeAndre Jordan at the top, and claiming he's the best player in the league. Just like nobody is looking at last year's assist numbers, seeing Vasquez at the top, and thinking that he's all of a sudden he's among the most valuable playmakers in the league. Its all a very elaborate strawman that nobody is even close to arguing.
Stats are stats. They are tools that require context. They all measure certain things. They all obscure other things. Some stats are better than others. TS% particularly measures scoring efficiency. Its one skill in the context of the entire player. Dumping a stat because it has certain weaknesses is throwing the baby out with the bathwater. I don't see anyone advocating dumping FG% or PPG or APG because they can be misused just the same way.
In any case, its rather ironic that the same advocates for context are the ones robbing the discussion of it all. TS% requires a discussion about how the player is scoring, what his scoring is opening up for others on the court, how turnover prone the player is, and what else the player is bringing to the table.
For example, on one hand you have Kevin Martin, who does literally nothing on the court but score. Sky high TS%, but he doesn't make plays for others, he has a terrible handle so he can't reliably create for himself, and he's a terrible defender. The scoring ability is literally the only thing earning him an NBA paycheck.
On the other hand, you have Michael Jordan, who has an incredible TS% for the volume that he's scoring at, his role in the offense as the centerpiece/primary creator, his scoring is opening up his ability to make plays for his teammates, and he's one of the greatest perimeter defenders of all time. Thats context.
So what about Rudy then? Well, for one he can create for himself off the dribble or in post-up situations, so his scoring is inherently more valuable than the Kevin Martins of the world. But he's a very high turnover player and his scoring doesn't really open up opportunities for him to make plays for others. His defense is good but not elite. So its *kind of* important (read: VERY IMPORTANT) that when he's using a lot of shooting possessions that he's scoring at an efficient rate. Because if he's not, he's just not justifying the possessions that we're pouring into him.
So yes, when I hear this:
sorry I just don't see where it would be a disaster. Career % is right on par with multiple MVP's and All-Stars
It makes me wonder if the context promoters are even looking at context in the first place. For what its worth, his Memphis career (non-rookie) TS% is roughly around .530 (eyeballing it). The league average tends to be around roughly .530 to .540 TS%. So he's offering little playmaking, average rebounding, solid but not great defense, and a high amount of turnovers, all for what? Volume scoring in line with or below league average efficiency? It just wasn't worth it.
And its important to note that after Memphis essentially dumped him for a middling prospect in Ed Davis, they didn't really miss him. I'm not buying the garbage that they were
better without Rudy than with him, or that they wouldn't have gotten as far if they did have Rudy in the lineup. But you definitely can't deny that they didn't really miss him; they still got as far as they did without him, even after replacing him with an offensive non-factor in Tayshaun Prince. So yes, Rudy regressing back to his Memphis-level efficiency is a pretty big deal. He's not giving us much on the court a roleplayer can't provide if he's scoring at that level of efficiency. And a roleplayer isn't making $19 million per year.
So then lets look at some of the other examples that were brought up:
Aldridge has a career TS% of .535
Aldridge is a ridiculously low turnover player for the usage he is scoring at and at the rate that he's making plays for teammates. Seriously, he's at a nearly 2:1 Assist to Turnover ratio for a big man. Thats insane for the usage he's posting. Plus you consider that he's manned up on the rebounding front this year, which is essentially his first year as a #1 option on a winning team. So you can live with the below average scoring efficiency since he's doing it at a high volume, its opening up his playmaking ability for others, and he's rarely turning it over.
Melo gets criticized for not being that efficient of a playmaker, but even then he's a better one than Rudy is. Melo also is scoring more points per game, at a higher volume, at a higher efficiency. This easily justifyies the scoring possessions he's using considering he's also making plays for others, even if its not on the Durant/Lebron/George level, its a tier above Rudy's level.
Paul George is a career .526
Who was never really considered an offensive star until this year, making his name mostly on defense. But this year he's obviously vaulted into the 3rd best SF slot after Lebron and Durant because he's still providing that game-changing defense with the added bonus of volume scoring and playmaking. He's justifying the usage quite nicely.
Luol Deng is a career .526
Never considered an offensive star, but brings great defense to the table. He's obviously miscast as a volume scorer, so while his TS% is low, he's never had an above average usage rate. So he's not using the same amount of possessions, making him a valuable roleplayer when in the right role since he's bringing other things to the table. If Rudy can score efficiently at the volume he's at now, I'd consider him a more valuable player than Deng. But if he reverts back into Memphis/Toronto form, then I would lean towards no. But they're obviously in the same tier as players.
Russel Westbrook is a career .520. Derrick Rose is a career .532
Both of whom offer PG play running the team, with the additional bonus of their volume scoring opening up playmaking ability, and both of whom have solid Assist to Turnover ratios, justifying the number of possessions that they use quite handily.
And again (its rather silly that I have to keep buttressing my comments with optimism, but I feel like I'm under attack from a bunch of fangirls after criticizing Justin Bieber), I'm cautiously optimistic. It seems like Rudy's changed his style up since coming into Sacramento. He's posting up more, he's getting to the line more. That TS% he's posting now is a good 2-3 points above league average, which easily justifies the usage he's at. But its critical that he maintains his level of play. Its interesting to note how even with his 3pt% is so low, he's posting a career high TS%. It could be a good or bad thing, since it means its likely that his 3pt% reverts back to the mean, and it also means his career high TS% is being floated by a 2pt% and FT rate way, way higher than his career average. It'll be interesting to see where he ends up at the end of the year.
Cautious optimism mixed with reservations. Consider that my stance.
