One-Two Punches

[Bricklayer]

Following is an approximate list of the league's various 1-2 punches. Going forward (i.e. next year let's say, when everybody is presumably back healthy, and for the next few years) where does the Sacto pair rank as far as future talent/prospects:

WEST
POR: Aldridge/Lillard
GSW: Curry/Klay
SAC: Cousins/Gay
LAC: Paul/Griffin
LAL: Kobe/Gasol
PHX: Dragic/Bledsoe
UTH: Hayward/Favors
DEN: Lawson/Gallinari
HOU: Harden/Howard
DAL: Nowitzki/Ellis
SAN: Duncan/Parker
NOH: Davis/Holiday (or Gordon, or Anderson, you can choose)
MEM: Gasol/Randolph
MIN: Love/Martin
OKC: Durant/Westbrook
EAST
CHI: Rose/Deng (or Boozer, your choice)
CLE: Irving/Waiters (or Thompson, your choice)
MIL: give me a break
DET: Drummond/Monroe (or work Jennings in, or Smith, whatever)
IND: George/Hibbert
TOR: DeRozan/Valanciunas (or Lowry if you think he'll stay)
PHI: Turner/Carter-Williams
NYK: Melo/Chandler (or Smith)
NJN: Lopez/Williams
BOS: Rondo/Green
WSH: Wall/Beal
CHA: Jefferson/Walker
ATL: Horford/Milsap (or swap Teague in for one of them)
ORL: Afflalo/Oladipo (or maybe make Harris one if he ever plays again)
MIA: James/Wade

 

[KingMilz]

Overall or just on offence?

Overall probs 7-9
Just on offence 3-6

 

[rainmaker]

Too early to tell.

Need our PG position figured out. If IT is here long term as the starter, if he's shipped out for a more defensive and less ball dominant PG or if we simply upgrade with more of a defensive PG who can score, all three potential scenarios can effect the outcome.

But top 10, pushing top 5 depending on how they continue to mesh and how our PG/SG/PF positions work out which are in flux.

 

[Chupacabra]

I can only decisively place Durant/Westbrook and James/Wade ahead of them. After that I can make the argument for Gay/Cousins. I voted 1-3.

 

[Entity]

Well obviously cousins is the best big out of all the bigs listed. Rudy Gay top 5 SF behind James, Durant, George, and Carmelo. I know I'd like to see a big three comparison throw IT in the mix. In all honesty you take defense out of the equation and Isaiah is hell to guard. Probably top 5 toughest pg to guard against.

 

[JSin]

Such a nebulous question, ranking "talent" and a combo pair. I could talk myself into around 4th or 5th in the league, but then I could see 7th or 8th in the West depending on how I look at it.

It also concerns me that there is hardly a single "interior" big on this entire list. It that good news for us knowing what we have, or a sign that Cousins is here 10 years too late, in a league that is designed for wing players.

 

[spudfan]

Such a nebulous question, ranking "talent" and a combo pair. I could talk myself into around 4th or 5th in the league, but then I could see 7th or 8th in the West depending on how I look at it.

It also concerns me that there is hardly a single "interior" big on this entire list. It that good news for us knowing what we have, or a sign that Cousins is here 10 years too late, in a league that is designed for wing players.

I think the list says more about the rarity of finding big men who can be both durable and dominate than it does about the league being designed for wing players. The team with arguably the best wing to ever play the game only really struggles against others teams that have skilled bigs. All of the sayings and thoughts that revolve around "not being able to teach size" have a lot of truth to them. A skilled big is inherently one of the most valuable positions in the sport.

If prime time Shaq was playing now all the good teams with their guard/forward heavy lineups would look much different. Other teams would need to adjust their rosters to compete with Shaq's team. And we may very well be headed that direction with Cousins. With the CBA rules and salary cap, I think things could align perfectly for us. All of the teams blowing their entire payroll on guards and forwards won't have any money left to pay the current hotness position (thanks analytics), the defensive big, which are now commanding $$$$$$ contracts.

In short, hell no. I don't think Cousins is here 10 years too late.

 

[HighFlyingMonkey]

It really depends on which Rudy Gay we're talking about here.

If Rudy regresses back into the Toronto version of Gay, I wouldn't even say Top 15.

If Rudy regresses back into the Memphis version of Gay, I could see an argument for top 10.

If this Kings version of Gay is the one we will see for the rest of the season, I would only take Wade/James, Westbrook/Durant, Paul/Griffin and Lillard/Aldridge over them, with Harden/Howard right behind.

Still a long season to go. We'll have a better idea of what we can reasonably expect out of Rudy at the end of the season. I'm still not convinced he's our second best player.

 

[VF21]

...Still a long season to go. We'll have a better idea of what we can reasonably expect out of Rudy at the end of the season. I'm still not convinced he's our second best player.

I'm not convinced he's not.

 

[Chubbs]

Still a long season to go. We'll have a better idea of what we can reasonably expect out of Rudy at the end of the season. I'm still not convinced he's our second best player.

No one else is even in the discussion.

 

[Entity]

It really depends on which Rudy Gay we're talking about here.

If Rudy regresses back into the Toronto version of Gay, I wouldn't even say Top 15.

If Rudy regresses back into the Memphis version of Gay, I could see an argument for top 10.

If this Kings version of Gay is the one we will see for the rest of the season, I would only take Wade/James, Westbrook/Durant, Paul/Griffin and Lillard/Aldridge over them, with Harden/Howard right behind.

Still a long season to go. We'll have a better idea of what we can reasonably expect out of Rudy at the end of the season. I'm still not convinced he's our second best player.

5th best SF in the entire NBA and your not convinced he is even our second best player. Heck we should be undefeated.

 

[ParniValjak]

It really depends on which Rudy Gay we're talking about here.

If Rudy regresses back into the Toronto version of Gay, I wouldn't even say Top 15.

If Rudy regresses back into the Memphis version of Gay, I could see an argument for top 10.

If this Kings version of Gay is the one we will see for the rest of the season, I would only take Wade/James, Westbrook/Durant, Paul/Griffin and Lillard/Aldridge over them, with Harden/Howard right behind.

Still a long season to go. We'll have a better idea of what we can reasonably expect out of Rudy at the end of the season. I'm still not convinced he's our second best player.

I am a bit different because I see Cousins as THE most dominant big man in the league. I take him over the likes of Griffin, Aldridge and Howard any day of the week and by a long margin. People are still sleeping on Boogie. Paul is the one that might swing it into the favour of the Clippers. I don't see Aldridge as a better player than Cousins despite having almost MVP type season. Aldridge is having his career season and it can be argued that Cousins' season is at least on par with Aldridge if not better.

Gay just needs to be a Memphis version of Gay and Boogie's talent swings it into our favour on majority of those match ups. I would say that the likes of Aldridge, Griffin and the likes are easier stopped than DeMarcus and that is a HUGE advantage for us.

 

[HighFlyingMonkey]

Still a long season to go. We'll have a better idea of what we can reasonably expect out of Rudy at the end of the season. I'm still not convinced he's our second best player.

No one else is even in the discussion.

Rudy Gay is not an unknown commodity. He is not a young player breaking out for the first time. He is 27 years old, in his prime, and we already have seven full seasons to judge his play by. Right now, for the Kings he is scoring at an efficiency he's never scored with in his entire career. His career TS% is .524, the past ten games he's rocketed up to .558. Thats nearly four percentage points higher. This isn't like Demarcus or Isaiah steadily improving their game to newer levels where we can probably see them hover around for their prime. This is Rudy in his prime seeing a massive spike in productivity for 10 games versus 7 seasons of work.

Now, its perfectly acceptable to be optimistic and believe that Rudy keeps this up the entire year, because its certainly plausible. However, discounting the possibility of him regressing back to the mean is idiotic. For what its worth, its also plausible for Demarcus and Isaiah to regress as well. So far so good, but I'm holding my breath. If you were wise you would too.

 

[Entity]

No one else is even in the discussion.



Rudy Gay is not an unknown commodity. He is not a young player breaking out for the first time. He is 27 years old, in his prime, and we already have seven full seasons to judge his play by. Right now, for the Kings he is scoring at an efficiency he's never scored with in his entire career. His career TS% is .524, the past ten games he's rocketed up to .558. Thats nearly four percentage points higher. This isn't like Demarcus or Isaiah steadily improving their game to newer levels where we can probably see them hover around for their prime. This is Rudy in his prime seeing a massive spike in productivity for 10 games versus 7 seasons of work.

Now, its perfectly acceptable to be optimistic and believe that Rudy keeps this up the entire year, because its certainly plausible. However, discounting the possibility of him regressing back to the mean is idiotic. For what its worth, its also plausible for Demarcus and Isaiah to regress as well. So far so good, but I'm holding my breath. If you were wise you would too.

Massive spike? Really? Really? MASSIVE. You must just be ignoring everything.
Sure his fg% is high at 48%. But he has averaged 46, 45, 46, 47, and 45. So 48 isn't massive. In fact with us his 3pt % is the lowest of his career. Massive spike? His rebounds with us are the lowest with us than his entire career. Massive spike? Ast, stls, blocks and ft% are pretty much same as his entire career? Massive spike. In fact the only stat that is not on par with his entire career is his 3pt% which is lower. Massive spike in productivity? You are as delusional as they come my friend.

You want to use TS% as your only leg to stand on. Well that takes free throws into the equation. And yes he is attempting more free throws with us than ever like 1 more and he is hitting 81% of those. There is your 4 pt "spike"

 

[Entity]

Lets say we are not idiotic and he "regresses" back to the old Rudy Gay from Memphis. I could handle more rebounds, +12% 3 pt%. -2% ft shooting, and -2% fg. Oh and I will take the slight increase in steals and blocks like he had in Memphis as well

 

[Chubbs]

And to your stats, I say to you, so what? He's our second best player no matter what his current level of efficiency is.

As you said in apparently an argument against him, he has a track record. He IS our second best player. Based on that very track record.

As for his numbers being a spike, which really had little to do with him being our #2, that doesn't really hold up. He has had a TS% over .54 two times, both playing with an all star level big in zach Randolph. Like here. Maybe it doesn't stay at career best .558, but he's certainly not far off from his 2010-2011 numbers. He has a PER of 17.0. He's had three full seasons better than that. Spike? Hardly. When his USG% has been around 25 or so, he's been much more efficient in his career. With the Kings, it's at 25.4%. With Toronto it was 30.4%. And the shooting %s have gone right back to Memphis numbers. Higher at this point, but even a little lower would still be great.

I'm afraid to ask who you think is better.

 

[Chubbs]

Ha, entity, we think alike.

 

[HighFlyingMonkey]

Massive spike? Really? Really? MASSIVE. You must just be ignoring everything.
Sure his fg% is high at 48%. But he has averaged 46, 45, 46, 47, and 45. So 48 isn't massive. In fact with us his 3pt % is the lowest of his career. Massive spike? His rebounds with us are the lowest with us than his entire career. Massive spike? Ast, stls, blocks and ft% are pretty much same as his entire career? Massive spike. In fact the only stat that is not on par with his entire career is his 3pt% which is lower. Massive spike in productivity? You are as delusional as they come my friend.

You want to use TS% as your only leg to stand on. Well that takes free throws into the equation. And yes he is attempting more free throws with us than ever like 1 more and he is hitting 81% of those. There is your 4 pt "spike"

Rudy's claim to being an elite SF is in his scoring ability. He's always been a middling playmaker and a solid rebounder for his position, but thats not what makes Rudy Gay. Thats not what got him a max contract.

So yes, TS% is rather important measuring stick for Rudy's game seeing as how its the best measure of scoring efficiency we have. If we are talking about the last ten games, Rudy's been an excellent volume scorer. If this is the Rudy we are going to get, then yes, easily top 5 SF, big time versatile scorer and a plus defender. But if he regresses back into the inefficient chucker he was in Toronto, then I would rather have those shots distributed in more efficient avenues.

We'll see at the end of the year. I'm cautiously optimistic but won't be surprised if we see Rudy regress back to his career averages. You'd be an idiot not to prepare for either outcome as a GM, coach, or fan.

 

[Chubbs]

Rudy's claim to being an elite SF is in his scoring ability. He's always been a middling playmaker and a solid rebounder for his position, but thats not what makes Rudy Gay. Thats not what got him a max contract.

So yes, TS% is rather important measuring stick for Rudy's game seeing as how its the best measure of scoring efficiency we have. If we are talking about the last ten games, Rudy's been an excellent volume scorer. If this is the Rudy we are going to get, then yes, easily top 5 SF, big time versatile scorer and a plus defender. But if he regresses back into the inefficient chucker he was in Toronto, then I would rather have those shots distributed in more efficient avenues.

We'll see at the end of the year. I'm cautiously optimistic but won't be surprised if we see Rudy regress back to his career averages. You'd be an idiot not to prepare for either outcome as a GM, coach, or fan.

You've really got to stop calling me an idiot. It's absolutely not an idiotic notion that Rudy is our second best player. This argument is absurd, so we continue.

The only time he was an inefficient chucker was in Toronto. He's not there anymore and has a different role here. There are reasons to be very optimistic. And rating him only in TS % seems foolhardy at best. What about his defense against Lebron? He seems a more than capable defender as well.

Yet, his career averages would still overwhelmingly make him our second best player. Returning to those would not be a bad thing. It'd be very good.

Regardless, doesn't change that he's our clear #2.

 

[Entity]

Rudy's claim to being an elite SF is in his scoring ability. He's always been a middling playmaker and a solid rebounder for his position, but thats not what makes Rudy Gay. Thats not what got him a max contract.

So yes, TS% is rather important measuring stick for Rudy's game seeing as how its the best measure of scoring efficiency we have. If we are talking about the last ten games, Rudy's been an excellent volume scorer. If this is the Rudy we are going to get, then yes, easily top 5 SF, big time versatile scorer and a plus defender. But if he regresses back into the inefficient chucker he was in Toronto, then I would rather have those shots distributed in more efficient avenues.

We'll see at the end of the year. I'm cautiously optimistic but won't be surprised if we see Rudy regress back to his career averages. You'd be an idiot not to prepare for either outcome as a GM, coach, or fan.

There in lies the problem for me. Every naysayer only wants to look at the 50 games he played in Toronto. Those same naysayers never want to look at the 480 games in Memphis. I'd say going by the NOW and the Memphis that the little time in Toronto is the exception here and what we have is the rule. You graded his TS% "spike" compared to Toronto as chubby stated he was well over 54 two seasons in Memphis. Basically the way Gay is playing now is closer to the rule than the exception. Now you have had both legs knocked out from under you here. Crawl away.

 

[The_Jamal]

You've really got to stop calling me an idiot. It's absolutely not an idiotic notion that Rudy is our second best player. This argument is absurd, so we continue.

The only time he was an inefficient chucker was in Toronto. He's not there anymore and has a different role here. There are reasons to be very optimistic. And rating him only in TS % seems foolhardy at best. What about his defense against Lebron? He seems a more than capable defender as well.

Yet, his career averages would still overwhelmingly make him our second best player. Returning to those would not be a bad thing. It'd be very good.

Regardless, doesn't change that he's our clear #2.

How is he calling you an idiot? He's saying people should not get cozy with the offensive scoring we've gotten from Rudy because it greatly deviates what he's done the last few years. In both Memphis and Toronto. His 42 games in Memphis in 2012-2013 were horrid. 47% TS, 40% FG. His 50 games in Toronto were equally as bad. 49% TS 41 FG%. The year before showed his numbers at 45% FG and 52 TS%. So essentially, you have to go back 165 games to the last time his numbers resembled what we've seen thus far with us. And even then, those were his career best scoring %'s.

3% FG spike is huge. 4% TS spike is huge. It's the difference of Cousins this season and Cousins last year. Would you be happy with Cousins going back to his scoring levels of last season?

Regardless, it's still far too early to make any statistical assertions to go one way or the other. 10 games is not enough to really decide anything.

 

[Entity]

Lol I'm sorry but this regression to career averages has got me shaking my head. But we are idiotic???

Career

18.8 pts
5.8 reb
2.1 ast
1.4 stls
0.9 blks
44.8 fg%
34.2 3pt%
77% ft

Now

19.9 pts
4.5 reb
2.4 ast
0.9 blks
1.6 ast
48% fg
22% 3pt
81% ft

 

[Entity]

How is he calling you an idiot? He's saying people should not get cozy with the offensive scoring we've gotten from Rudy because it greatly deviates what he's done the last few years. In both Memphis and Toronto. His 42 games in Memphis in 2012-2013 were horrid. 47% TS, 40% FG. His 50 games in Toronto were equally as bad. 49% TS 41 FG%. The year before showed his numbers at 45% FG and 52 TS%. So essentially, you have to go back 165 games to the last time his numbers resembled what we've seen thus far with us. And even then, those were his career best scoring %'s.

3% FG spike is huge. 4% TS spike is huge. It's the difference of Cousins this season and Cousins last year. Would you be happy with Cousins going back to his scoring levels of last season?

Huge. It's equals 1 more missed shot every two games. I don't know maybe that's huge to some but not enough to think he isn't our #2 option which was this conversation is based on

 

[Entity]

And no 45% and 52 TS were not his career best. I mean are y'all just making this up as you go along? 45 twice 46 twice and a 47. Plus 54 TS twice.

 

[HighFlyingMonkey]

You've really got to stop calling me an idiot. It's absolutely not an idiotic notion that Rudy is our second best player. This argument is absurd, so we continue.

No, you're right, its not an idiotic notion that Rudy might be our second best player. Its perfectly legitimate to be optimistic about his performance thus far. It could very well be scheme that was holding Rudy back. He's posting up at a career high rate and because of that getting to the free throw line at a better rate than his career averages. In Memphis there was never any room to post up with Zach/Gasol, and in Toronto Dwayne Casey is an idiot coach. Thats reason to be encouraged about the sustainability of the last ten games, but again I reiterate, its been ten games. Chill out.

The only time he was an inefficient chucker was in Toronto. He's not there anymore and has a different role here. There are reasons to be very optimistic. And rating him only in TS % seems foolhardy at best. What about his defense against Lebron? He seems a more than capable defender as well.

He was pretty bad in Memphis too. He was only at even just league average efficiency twice, and that was before he had surgery on his shoulder.

Yet, his career averages would still overwhelmingly make him our second best player. Returning to those would not be a bad thing. It'd be very good.

Returning to his career average efficiency would be disastrous.

 

[The_Jamal]

Huge. It's equals 1 more missed shot every two games. I don't know maybe that's huge to some but not enough to think he isn't our #2 option which was this conversation is based on

Well, I don't disagree with that. I think he's the #2 also. What I'm arguing is his 3% FG and 4% TS is statistically significant enough out of line with what Rudy has been in his career. He's only had 2 scoring efficiency years close to it. And the last one happened years ago. Especially over his last 2 and a half seasons, which is the best indicator of a player's current talent level. Wouldn't make sense to use KG's 08-09 season to describe him now would it?

Also, it's the difference between Cousins this year and last. Last season, his numbers were regarded as slightly below average for a big. Now, with the increase in FGA and increase in efficiency, he's verging on elite #1 status.

 

[Dime Dropper]

Gay is clearly our 2nd option right now and it shouldn't even be debated.

 

[The_Jamal]

And no 45% and 52 TS were not his career best. I mean are y'all just making this up as you go along? 45 twice 46 twice and a 47. Plus 54 TS twice.

Reading comprehension. Those are his shooting numbers the last 2 and a half seasons. Which is far more indicative of his current level than what he did 5 years ago in 07-08 or his career season in 10-11.

 

[Entity]

Well, I don't disagree with that. I think he's the #2 also. What I'm arguing is his 3% FG and 4% TS is statistically significant enough out of line with what Rudy has been in his career. He's only had 2 scoring efficiency years close to it. And the last one happened years ago. Especially over his last 2 and a half seasons, which is the best indicator of a player's current talent level. Wouldn't make sense to use KG's 08-09 season to describe him now would it?

Also, it's the difference between Cousins this year and last. Last season, his numbers were regarded as slightly below average for a big. Now, with the increase in FGA and increase in efficiency, he's verging on elite #1 status.

Well he was arguing that going back to career averages is a bad thing. I told you once I will say it again. 2 pts every 2 games is not I repeat is not significant

 

[Bricklayer]

Rudy's claim to being an elite SF is in his scoring ability. He's always been a middling playmaker and a solid rebounder for his position, but thats not what makes Rudy Gay. Thats not what got him a max contract.

So yes, TS% is rather important measuring stick for Rudy's game seeing as how its the best measure of scoring efficiency we have. If we are talking about the last ten games, Rudy's been an excellent volume scorer. If this is the Rudy we are going to get, then yes, easily top 5 SF, big time versatile scorer and a plus defender. But if he regresses back into the inefficient chucker he was in Toronto, then I would rather have those shots distributed in more efficient avenues.

We'll see at the end of the year. I'm cautiously optimistic but won't be surprised if we see Rudy regress back to his career averages. You'd be an idiot not to prepare for either outcome as a GM, coach, or fan.

On TS% in general:
I really really really wish I could have 5 minutes alone in a room with whoever it was who "invented" TS%. I have always loved the advanced stat mantra that mushing together a bunch of REAL stats into one big lumpy combo stat was the key to truth, rather than obscurification. But in the case of TS% its doubly worse, because it has elevated "efficiency" to a status it does not, and never has deserved. Efficiency is all well and good. Rather have an efficient guy than a non-efficient one. But robbed of context not only does it tell you little, but because it attracts too many idiots who don't know or understand the game and get hold of it as a safety blanket, it is frequently elevated up as THE trait to have. Gotta go get me some TS%. And the laugh of it is by far the best ways to have TS% are the very most untalented fat dude at the Y ways to accomplish anything on a basketball court -- which of course the TS% makers would know if they had ever played the sport. Here's TS%: alley oop dunks, three point shots (preferably open spot shots), and FT shooting = yay! Pathetic. And it just doesn't match up to reality on the court. It just doesn't. Kevin Martin notoriously had a higher TS% than Michael Jordan. Paul George has a TS% of .547 for a title contender. LaMarcus Aldridge has a TS% of .513 this year and his team has never been better. It just doesn't tell the story its proponents wish it would.

In any case, all of the above is why I hate even arguing in the world of TS%. But I am going to do so now.

Rudy Gay's annual TS%:
.497 (rook)
.546
.528
.525
.548
.521
.494 last year's disaster

now I don't know what the .546, .526. 525 .548 .521 line through his prime years in Memphis works out as, but let's eyeball it at maybe .532 or so. Aldridge has a career TS% of .535. Melo is at a career .545. Paul George is a career .526. Luol Deng is a career .526. Russel Westbrook is a career .520. Derrick Rose is a career .532. And just etc. Is it really THAT bad a thing if our #2 option reverts to his Memphis days and ONLY has a TS% in line with a bunch of the league's stars? I submit to you it is entirely possible to win, and yes to even contend with that type of TS% assuming you have a well built team surrounding him.