Now that we know the draft order, who do we draft? (New thread)
- Thread starter VF21
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How long have you been a Kings fan? I feel like a lot of Kings fans have short memories or do not know the extent of the suffering and ineptitude. The Kings have averaged 25th in defensive efficiency over the last 10 years. That's 6th worst. It's NOT a coincidence that the Kings win total over last decade has been approximately 6th worst in NBA, our approximate standing in the lottery on an annual basis! The Kings are NOT going to put an end to this incompetence by drafting guys that can't hold their own on defensive side of the ball. And Vlade should not draft guys that his teammates are going to constantly have to cover for.
I love offense as much as the next fan and I want a high powered offense. But there is a certain profile of player that you look for in this context and if a player projects as average at best or below average he better be a damn special offensive player. Dennis Smith Jr is not that. He is susceptible to low percentage attempts and average or slightly better as a distributor. I don't think his offensive efficiency is going to make up for defensive challenges. This is the exact type we do NOT need to take chance on! Fans are deluded by said player b/c he can jump. Frankly I don't give a damn about his vertical!
Vlade in effect is the caretaker of the franchise in his role as personnel director. To me it would be borderline negligence to expose the fan base to another player, one whom is the product of getting rid of the most talented player in franchise history, who cannot keep his man in front of him due to vitals and effort level. Then you compound the question marks over this guy with leadership and maturity issues and injury history and I see almost NO reason why any Kings fan would want DSJ on their team. Its incredulous to me! I don't get it. Fans watch a few You Tube videos and they are hooked? I am not as easily impressed.
As far as Jayson Tatum, I don't like his overall game. I am not going repeat my detailed assessment from before, but if you watch the kid he jab steps and steps away from the defense. He is bailing out the defender. He's not using speed or power often enough to get advantage on the defender. That's not high percentage basketball. His shot mechanics are a bit jacked too and scoring is supposed to be his strength. He's another guy who projects as an average to subpar defender. That is not going to help us turnaround a decade of letting the opponent run lay-up lines. It is also a disservice to put these guys on the floor with guys who want to play defense and ask they cover their chronic blunders.
I love offense as much as the next fan and I want a high powered offense. But there is a certain profile of player that you look for in this context and if a player projects as average at best or below average he better be a damn special offensive player. Dennis Smith Jr is not that. He is susceptible to low percentage attempts and average or slightly better as a distributor. I don't think his offensive efficiency is going to make up for defensive challenges. This is the exact type we do NOT need to take chance on! Fans are deluded by said player b/c he can jump. Frankly I don't give a damn about his vertical!
Vlade in effect is the caretaker of the franchise in his role as personnel director. To me it would be borderline negligence to expose the fan base to another player, one whom is the product of getting rid of the most talented player in franchise history, who cannot keep his man in front of him due to vitals and effort level. Then you compound the question marks over this guy with leadership and maturity issues and injury history and I see almost NO reason why any Kings fan would want DSJ on their team. Its incredulous to me! I don't get it. Fans watch a few You Tube videos and they are hooked? I am not as easily impressed.
As far as Jayson Tatum, I don't like his overall game. I am not going repeat my detailed assessment from before, but if you watch the kid he jab steps and steps away from the defense. He is bailing out the defender. He's not using speed or power often enough to get advantage on the defender. That's not high percentage basketball. His shot mechanics are a bit jacked too and scoring is supposed to be his strength. He's another guy who projects as an average to subpar defender. That is not going to help us turnaround a decade of letting the opponent run lay-up lines. It is also a disservice to put these guys on the floor with guys who want to play defense and ask they cover their chronic blunders.
1. Buddy Hield: Dude was terrible in his rookie year. Constantly lost his man off the ball. Got hit with screens and was never able to recover. Lateral quickness is SLOW. Had major troubles chasing his guy around.
2. Skal Labissiere: his defense was horrific in his rookie year. Yes he was physically outmatched, but the guy was straight up lost 80% of the time. No type of defensive awareness. Yes, he has good length with nimble feet, but until he can put it together, he's going to be a gigantic liability. Can he put it together? Andrew Wiggins has the tools to be a good defender too, yet he's probably the worst defensive player on that T-Wolves team.
3. WCS: has all of the tools to be a good, if not great, defender. Still waiting for him to put it together. Inconsistent motor. Inconsistent effort. Was advertised as an elite rim protector. Haven't seen much of that in the NBA yet. Defensive rebounding is poor..unless motivated I guess. Firmly remember him saying that the reason why he's rebounding better now(2-3 weeks after Cousins trade) is because of fans talking crap to him about it.
So when talking about defense.. do we blatantly ignore the 2 poor defenders we have on our squad right now in Buddy and Skal? Or are we kinda already stuck with them since they're already on our team? Do we decide that both of these guys are good enough to the point where they can be a core of the Kings moving forward? Honestly, I don't think Buddy, Skal, or anyone else in this roster has proven enough to cement themselves as guys who we need to build around...even defensively.
I'm not diluted about DSJ because he can jump. I'm excited about DSJ because he can score at all 3 levels. Yes his fg% suffered at certain areas more than others, but put NBA-caliber players around him like UCLA or Kentucky did, and I think you'd see a much different result. No offense to Rowan or Abu, but they really don't compare to Monk/BAM or even Hamilton/Leaf. DSJ fits the prototypical PG in today's game. There's nothing wrong with his offensive efficiency either. His TS% is 56.3. Fox-54.8, Fultz-55.8, Evans-53.5, and Ball-67.3. However, I see the concerns about his attitude and defensive effort. But I just don't think it's worth firing over. I also think he has enough offensive power to outweigh any type of defensive deficiencies he might have at the next level. Tell me another PG who can create his shot the way Fultz and DSJ does. You can't. DSJ is one of the best shot creators in the nation. Can score at the rim, shoot at mid-range, shoot the 3, and get to the line.
In terms of Tatum, I can see why you wouldn't like his offense. However, he's not just a guy who settles for mid-range shots. Overall, he distributes his shots not too far off. 33.2% at the rim, 34.8% at mid-range, and 32.1% at 3pt. Even at that, he still has a TS% of 56.6. Means he's taking, and making enough 3pters to suggest that he can be a high% basketball player. I don't see anything wrong with his overall shot mechanics. On defense, he's probably always going to be average, but there's nothing that says he can't hold his own. Same with DSJ.
I think there's lots of reasons why Vlade can get fired, but I don't think drafting DSJ or Tatum would be anything remotely close enough. If defense is really that important to Vlade and how we build our team, then idk what you do about buddy and skal. bogdanovic too. if theres a vision of strong hardnose defense, then idk how you could feature a team of buddy and skal. its like having a core of d'angelo russell with julius randle and saying you cant draft lonzo ball because he doesnt fit with your hardnose defense. or, its like having a core of devin booker with marquese chriss and claiming you cant draft dennis smith jr because he doesnt fit your defensive minded team. for the kings, its 10x worse because we have no one on the roster who has shown they are a franchise player like devin booker.
lol. same could be said for any other prospect in this class...also ive seen most kings fans want fox, and almost no one want dsj, so i'm not sure who or what this is referring to..
Don't get too caught up in 3pt% for college guys, the sample sizes for the most part are ridiculously small. Not that I think Anunoby is secretly a lights-out shooter, but he only took 45 3s last year... Are we really going to make any sort of intelligent assumption about his spacing ability based off that?
And despite the atrocius FT and 3pt shooting, dude still managed to put up a 61% TS last year. Just crazy effective inside the arc.
As for drafting Anunoby, he's a guy we take after taking on (Portland) salary for. We'd have no reason to rush him back and could bring him along nice and slowly.
And despite the atrocius FT and 3pt shooting, dude still managed to put up a 61% TS last year. Just crazy effective inside the arc.
As for drafting Anunoby, he's a guy we take after taking on (Portland) salary for. We'd have no reason to rush him back and could bring him along nice and slowly.
This is what Draft Express said about Klay Thompson prior to his draft: "Still, there are many questions surrounding Thompson's game and how it will transition to the next level, namely due to his lack of great athleticism and struggles on the defensive end. - Source: http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Klay-Thompson-5490/ ©DraftExpress
1. Buddy Hield: Dude was terrible in his rookie year.
2. Skal Labissiere: his defense was horrific in his rookie year.
2. Skal Labissiere: his defense was horrific in his rookie year.
"Horrific" and "terrible" are grandiose hyperbolic words. Do you want to know who was a terrible defender? His name was Matt Barnes. The guy was a farce. Then there was Marco, Stauskas, and Affalo as a help defender. That's terrible. That's horrific. When you get blatantly beat and the whole arena can see it. You undermine your credibility when your assessment is clearly exaggerated.
Yes, Buddy needs to improve defensively. But he has instincts to defend. He has desire to defend. He certainly as a far better knack of anticipating plays than Ben. And if you want to talk about a "3D player" Buddy showed capability in this regard with soft floaters off either foot when he got pushed off the "3", and sweet drives and finishes with his left hand. He has a gorgeous long shot that I always feel is going to go in when he sets his feet. His 3% accuracy during his games with the Kings (.428) would qualify for 6th in the NBA!!!!
3 Point %:
1. Pau Gasol (???
) 2. Korver
3. Crabbe (3rd in NBA in 3%; under-utilized in POR; a player I was hyping non-stop last summer that we should acquire; right again.
)4. Ingles
5. Otto Porter (future King
) 6. Buddy (this is where Buddy would be in 3% based on his accuracy with SAC
)Even more importantly which is subtle thing that most fans don't notice, Buddy is a discerning shot taker. He doesn't hoist up crap. He probes the defense for quality looks and sharp footwork. This is reflected in his 65% TS in OSU and 60% TS after Kings acquisition and without a training camp and with new teammates. This is All-Star efficiency. Add to it nice knack to drive and kick to the open man and ability to sneak in on defensive boards and garner 3-4 RPG from the SG position and you have a gem in the making.
I raise all these points because these traits are conspicuously absent with Smith Jr. No one questions Buddy defensive effort at OSU. No one questions his shot selection. Now I grant to you the difference in age and experience but it is concerning that Smith Jr was part of a disastrous season and stop playing with 100% effort in what was basically an audition for a multi-million dollar contract.
But guess what, it appears my perception of DSJ (overrated) seems to be shared by the Kings FO, just like my perception of Lonzo (overrated) seems to be shared by the Lakers FO!!!
(I am more convinced than ever the Lakers will be taking Jackson, a great prospect) The Kings had NO interest in bringing DSJ to SAC when he was an hour flight from LA, and unless I missed something they did not care to attend his "pro day". Maybe Vlade had something more important to do like walk his dog or get a manicure.
Now I will come to the defense of Skal:
His defense was NOT horrific. That is just a blatant mischaracterization. Skal has good court awareness to keep an eye on his man and the ball. He is very good! Now there were times he was overpowered but this is highly correctable. You look at a guy like Skal who has a nose for the ball and anticipate where it is coming off the rim. Guess what, those same instincts will be used successfully to anticipate defensively to provide respectable resistance. A horrific defender gets in chronic foul trouble. A horrific defender would highly resistant to go out on perimeter to challenge guards. Skal would switch onto guard and get into his defensive stance. He embraced this challenge and moved his feet well. So what are you even watching when you say he is horrific.?!? As a rookie at his age I would qualify his defense as above average, his rebounding as tremendous, and his potential as unlimited!
So if you are coming from this assessment in regards to Buddy and Skal, then I cannot say I am surprised we would differ on DSJ too. But here's the fun part. We will get our first evidence of his potential in a couple of weeks. I look forward to seeing how DSJ performs (for a non-Kings team obviously
) at LVSL against guys he does NOT have a dominant athletic advantage. This is when the hype over DSJ will die off and the harsh reality of flawed skillset will be spotlighted unequivocally. As far as Vlade getting fired for drafting Tatum or Smith, I don't think it will come to that. He's not the brightest bulb of the bunch but he's not the dimmest either. The Kings are trying to build something special and the last thing we need is players who contribute more to the problem than the solution. The Kings played motion and space offense with a sharing is caring mindset. Tunnel vision players prone to the hold the ball (Tatum) and pound the ball (Smith) obviously do NOT fit what we are trying to build! This is the facts. Now you know.
Now Blob, you know you can't go around saying people are basing their opinions on the draft too much on highlight videos and then go ahead and post one single block to prove a point that Skal is a good defender.
I prefer a long drawn out "Blobbing" over something like that
I prefer a long drawn out "Blobbing" over something like that
Well things are starting to get crazy with Boston in talks to trade #1 to Philly for #3 and multiple other draft picks.
http://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/246286/76ers-Discussing-Trading-Up-To-No-1-With-Celtics
http://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/246286/76ers-Discussing-Trading-Up-To-No-1-With-Celtics
The way the top 10 shakes out, it may work out better for the Kings to draft Tatum at 5 and get that possible go to scorer early in this draft.
I think Frank N will still be there at 10, while the top small forwards will be gone by then.
Is it better to get Fox (5) and Markarren or Collins (10) or Tatum (5) and Frank N. (10)?
In the long term, it may give us a better overall team to get that go to scorer earlier in the draft at 5 (Tatum) and get the 3 &D point guard (Frank N) at 10.
I think Frank N will still be there at 10, while the top small forwards will be gone by then.
Is it better to get Fox (5) and Markarren or Collins (10) or Tatum (5) and Frank N. (10)?
In the long term, it may give us a better overall team to get that go to scorer earlier in the draft at 5 (Tatum) and get the 3 &D point guard (Frank N) at 10.
while this is not a popular view around here, this thing is not going to be rebuilin 2 years. It will take longer. As a result, now if the time to draft best players available. People make it sound that Kings are set at PF or C.
They are not. While each player has shown promise, it was a limited game spn in a period of the season that is notorious for overflating young players ability.
While both PG and SF are most immediate needs, Kings could do with another PF or C. WCS has not proven to be able to sustain the effort for the entire season, Papagiannis is a couple of seasons away from being able to play key minutes in meaningful games if at all. Skal is promising but still unproven and Kosta is practically an expiring contract next season.
Kings need to accumulate talent, and that talent must be best available. Kings a still a long way away from a position where they can take calculated risks.
They are not. While each player has shown promise, it was a limited game spn in a period of the season that is notorious for overflating young players ability.
While both PG and SF are most immediate needs, Kings could do with another PF or C. WCS has not proven to be able to sustain the effort for the entire season, Papagiannis is a couple of seasons away from being able to play key minutes in meaningful games if at all. Skal is promising but still unproven and Kosta is practically an expiring contract next season.
Kings need to accumulate talent, and that talent must be best available. Kings a still a long way away from a position where they can take calculated risks.
Taking BPA is my whole point and we can also fills needs to.
To be honest, I see Fox and Tatum as equal prospects. Both have pluses and both have flaws.
I think it may come down to choosing between Fox and Tatum on Thursday and I wouldn't be surprised if Vlade takes Tatum over Fox at 5.
Once we get to #10, I think Frank N. will be BPA available at 10. I like Frank N. over both Markarren and Collins.
I would be happy if we wind up with Tatum and Frank N. on Thursday night.
To be honest, I see Fox and Tatum as equal prospects. Both have pluses and both have flaws.
I think it may come down to choosing between Fox and Tatum on Thursday and I wouldn't be surprised if Vlade takes Tatum over Fox at 5.
Once we get to #10, I think Frank N. will be BPA available at 10. I like Frank N. over both Markarren and Collins.
I would be happy if we wind up with Tatum and Frank N. on Thursday night.
Tatum or Isaac + Ntilikina would be great. I really like Frank a lot.
I just have major doubts he will be there at 10. He might! But I lean towards he won't be.
I think what it really boils down to, is which position you definitely want to draft a good prospect at. PG or SF.
I know some want a SF for sure. Some want the next floor general for sure. Each camp has good reasons.
I am in the latter camp and would like to know we have our PG in place early in our rebuild.
If you could guarantee me Tatum/ Isaac + Ntilikina or DSJ, I would likely lean to that.
We may just have to choose 1 position or the other to fill with a top prospect in this draft and look to next year and or FA to fill the other. We are unlikely to fill our 2 biggest needs with top 10 prospects in one draft.
It would be nice though.
I just have major doubts he will be there at 10. He might! But I lean towards he won't be.
I think what it really boils down to, is which position you definitely want to draft a good prospect at. PG or SF.
I know some want a SF for sure. Some want the next floor general for sure. Each camp has good reasons.
I am in the latter camp and would like to know we have our PG in place early in our rebuild.
If you could guarantee me Tatum/ Isaac + Ntilikina or DSJ, I would likely lean to that.
We may just have to choose 1 position or the other to fill with a top prospect in this draft and look to next year and or FA to fill the other. We are unlikely to fill our 2 biggest needs with top 10 prospects in one draft.
It would be nice though.
Ball
Fultz
Fox
Jackson
Isaac
One of those guys will be there at #5. Odds are that it's Fox and/or Isaac.
If Fox is there at 5 then I think you take him and BPA at 10 or possibly look to move that pick of you don't leave anyone at that point. My preference (assuming Tatum doesn't drop) is becoming Markkanen. I think he's a good fit with Fox.
If Fox is gone then I think you take Isaac and look to trade up from 10 for a PG. If Orlando doesn't take DSJ then I would offer Malachi and #10 to the Wolves for #7.
Fox and Markkanen or Tatum (if he slipped or the Kings traded up)
Or
Isaac and Smith
Those would both be great draft night outcomes in my mind.
I'm not eager to trade Richardson but with Hield, Temple and possibly Bogdanovic there's a glut of SGs. Not to mention that Skal, Hield, Papagiannis, Richardson and possibly Bogdanovic would all become free agents at the same time. That's not good roster management and it's better to address that now before it becomes an issue.
Fultz
Fox
Jackson
Isaac
One of those guys will be there at #5. Odds are that it's Fox and/or Isaac.
If Fox is there at 5 then I think you take him and BPA at 10 or possibly look to move that pick of you don't leave anyone at that point. My preference (assuming Tatum doesn't drop) is becoming Markkanen. I think he's a good fit with Fox.
If Fox is gone then I think you take Isaac and look to trade up from 10 for a PG. If Orlando doesn't take DSJ then I would offer Malachi and #10 to the Wolves for #7.
Fox and Markkanen or Tatum (if he slipped or the Kings traded up)
Or
Isaac and Smith
Those would both be great draft night outcomes in my mind.
I'm not eager to trade Richardson but with Hield, Temple and possibly Bogdanovic there's a glut of SGs. Not to mention that Skal, Hield, Papagiannis, Richardson and possibly Bogdanovic would all become free agents at the same time. That's not good roster management and it's better to address that now before it becomes an issue.
Sure sounds like the Knicks are zoning in on Frank at eight. We'll see what happens on draft day but that one seems to make a lot of sense... I bet they take him.
Our point guard options at pick ten will likely be pretty non existent. If we miss on Fox at five and pass on dsj for Tatum/Isaac then trading back from ten a bit and grabbing Juwan Evans looks like the best bet imo.
Our point guard options at pick ten will likely be pretty non existent. If we miss on Fox at five and pass on dsj for Tatum/Isaac then trading back from ten a bit and grabbing Juwan Evans looks like the best bet imo.
Right now I think the odds are likely that (1) we get Fox at #5 and (2) we trade #10. I am thinking there are two tiers related to the how these players are going to be picked (unless a guy like Collins or Donovan jumps up, unlikely but possible). The leftover player is Frank Ntlinkina, whom I don't think we want whether we get Fox or not.
Top 5:
- Fultz
- Ball
- Jackson
-Fox
- Isaac
I have these five guys going Top 5. The order is debatable primarily contingent on what the Lakers do, and surprise, possibly what the Bulls do at #3 if they acquire it in a 3-team trade for Butler.
The Next 4:
- Monk
- Smith
- Tatum
- Lauri
I really don't see any players jumping into this Top 9. Even if you are Frank N fan, if Tatum slides to a team like Mavs or Knicks you take Tatum as a stretch 4 and more immediate help for teams that are sick and tired of floundering as much or more than us.
Let's just suppose the Celts-Bulls-76ers trade goes down. This is what I see most likely:
(1) 76ers - Fultz
(2) Lakers - Jackson
(3) Bulls - Ball (Fox)
(4) Suns - Isaac (Ball)
(5) Kings - Fox (Isaac)
So no matter what happens at #3 or #4 we are landing Fox or Isaac with slide edge to Fox.
(6) Magic - Smith (Monk fits here too, but I think he slides because he's too small as SG)
(7) Wolves - Tatum (Slide Tatum to stretch PF to play with Wiggins)
(8) Knicks - Monk (they take Monk over Frank N as an immediate contributor to take pressure off Kristaps)
(9) Mavs - Lauri M (Dirk replacement)
(10) Kings - Adam Silver "We have a trade to announce...."
Top 5:
- Fultz
- Ball
- Jackson
-Fox
- Isaac
I have these five guys going Top 5. The order is debatable primarily contingent on what the Lakers do, and surprise, possibly what the Bulls do at #3 if they acquire it in a 3-team trade for Butler.
The Next 4:
- Monk
- Smith
- Tatum
- Lauri
I really don't see any players jumping into this Top 9. Even if you are Frank N fan, if Tatum slides to a team like Mavs or Knicks you take Tatum as a stretch 4 and more immediate help for teams that are sick and tired of floundering as much or more than us.
Let's just suppose the Celts-Bulls-76ers trade goes down. This is what I see most likely:
(1) 76ers - Fultz
(2) Lakers - Jackson
(3) Bulls - Ball (Fox
)(4) Suns - Isaac (Ball)
(5) Kings - Fox (Isaac)
So no matter what happens at #3 or #4 we are landing Fox or Isaac with slide edge to Fox.
(6) Magic - Smith (Monk fits here too, but I think he slides because he's too small as SG)
(7) Wolves - Tatum (Slide Tatum to stretch PF to play with Wiggins)
(8) Knicks - Monk (they take Monk over Frank N as an immediate contributor to take pressure off Kristaps)
(9) Mavs - Lauri M (Dirk replacement)
(10) Kings - Adam Silver "We have a trade to announce...."
You know, I pretty much agree with your post. That said, I have to address the concept of BPA. I'm not necessarily saying that YOU go overboard with it, but many NBA observers do. While you want to pick the BPA, you also have to recognize that who you think is the BPA may be off by a few picks, one way or the other. So while it can be dangerous to pick for position over best overall talent, it's also dangerous to ignore the position(s) that you most need to address. I'm not advocating against BPA. Rather I'm suggesting that you need to understand that BPA is an educated guess and not a scientifically based outcome.
The Kings will have their draft board, from best BPA to worst, for the first and second rounds. All of them will be based on "educated guess." The only reason they should think in terms of position is if they are confronted with two or more players who they really cannot differentiate in terms of ability. If the Kings draft some player because of positional need and not BPA and we all learn after the fact that the BPA player was great and the positional need player was lousy, nobody is going to care whether they were looking to draft for a position of need. The only thing they would care about is that they blew it. And rightly so.
My pick is Issac, you cant not like that guy if you love defense, he can legitmately do it all, sort of what we expected out of Willie defensively except Issac is not afraid to stick his nose in there. His growth spurt was late so he has alot of nice guard type skills to go with a monsterous switchy defensive presence. If you factor in both sides of the ball he is the best prospect in the entire draft in my mind.
I know Fox is the safe move as casual fans already love him and he wants to be here because of the PG void but I hope Vlade truely goes with whoever he feels is the BPA. I dont want him to limit himself only to guys who would workout with him like he did the Willie year. Issac has the quickest feet ive ever seen on a 6'11 guy.
The league is three point happy and since you cant touch a 3 PT the only way to defend threes is with length. Good luck shooting over Willie Skal and Issac.
I know Fox is the safe move as casual fans already love him and he wants to be here because of the PG void but I hope Vlade truely goes with whoever he feels is the BPA. I dont want him to limit himself only to guys who would workout with him like he did the Willie year. Issac has the quickest feet ive ever seen on a 6'11 guy.
The league is three point happy and since you cant touch a 3 PT the only way to defend threes is with length. Good luck shooting over Willie Skal and Issac.
Post Cs/Philly trade and Draft Express is back to projecting us getting Fox and Collins, how it was right after the draft lotto.
I'd be pretty happy with that result (we'd probably have to ship off KK to open up PT for all our young bigs, but I'm fine with that. He's a player for a playoff contending team, not a rebuilding one).
Actually I'd be pretty happy with a lot of players from this draft. Monk and Lauri are the only 2 in the top 10 who I'd hate us drafting.
I'd be pretty happy with that result (we'd probably have to ship off KK to open up PT for all our young bigs, but I'm fine with that. He's a player for a playoff contending team, not a rebuilding one).
Actually I'd be pretty happy with a lot of players from this draft. Monk and Lauri are the only 2 in the top 10 who I'd hate us drafting.
