Needle in the Haystack

Kingster said:
http://sports.nationalpost.com/2010/05/10/rondo-a-diamond-in-the-haystack-that-was-the-2006-draft/

Who is going to be the needle this year?

And are we looking at 2006 all over again?

Douby taken over Rondo. Oh, the pain.:p
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I think once you get past Bargnani, Roy, Gay, Aldridge, and Rondo, it was a pretty weak draft. I will say however, that with Rondo, hindsight is a 100%. He wasn't thought that highly of by most of the people in the know. That includes me at the time. So I'm not infalible. Don't get me wrong. I was not a big fan of Douby at the time. Frankly I was shocked at the pick, and figured that Petrie must have seen something in the workouts that convinced him to draft him. Seems he's not infalible either

But as to who would be the Rondo of this draft. Hard to say. I mean if it were easy, then the player would be drafted higher and wouldn't be a sleeper. I'm going to go with Avery Bradley. I think 4 years from now he'll be one of the better players to come out of this draft. If I were to pick someone that will be drafted in the second round I would go with Greivis Vasquez or Dominique Jones..
 
*sigh*

My wishlist that year was Rondo, Sergio Rodriguez or Jordan Farmar, because Aldridge was out of reach, and I figured that after drafting two SGs, we would likely take a PG or a big. I thought that Marcus Williams' character issues ruled him out, leaving those other guys. But #47 Paul Millsap was below my radar, so I still managed my share of prophetic failure that year.

This year? I'll tell you right after the draft. After the first several picks, mocks are usually WAY off, and some of those guys might go 10 picks earlier (or later) than expected. And there's no telling who the steal of the draft will be until you know where they're picked.
 
bajaden said:
I think once you get past Bargnani, Roy, Gay, Aldridge, and Rondo, it was a pretty weak draft. I will say however, that with Rondo, hindsight is a 100%. He wasn't thought that highly of by most of the people in the know. That includes me at the time. So I'm not infalible. Don't get me wrong. I was not a big fan of Douby at the time. Frankly I was shocked at the pick, and figured that Petrie must have seen something in the workouts that convinced him to draft him. Seems he's not infalible either

But as to who would be the Rondo of this draft. Hard to say. I mean if it were easy, then the player would be drafted higher and wouldn't be a sleeper. I'm going to go with Avery Bradley. I think 4 years from now he'll be one of the better players to come out of this draft. If I were to pick someone that will be drafted in the second round I would go with Greivis Vasquez or Dominique Jones..
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I'd like to take this opportunity to use the search feature to pat myself on the back in regards to Rondo.

http://www.kingsfans.com/forums/showthread.php?p=386281&highlight=rondo#post386281

Proof that I am infallible ;)
 
Vlade4GM said:
Proof that I am infallible ;)
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Looking over the next year's draft, I think we would have done a lot better to take Marc Gasol (#48) over Hawes (#10). But I can't think of a single poster here who wanted Gasol at #10. I didn't. The press said that he was pretty slow and maybe too unathletic to do very well in the NBA, and I didn't watch Spanish basketball, so I just believed them.

Draftexpress had Gasol going at #50. Of 15 mocks covered by nba.com, not one had Gasol going in the lottery. http://www.nba.com/features/draft2007_consensus.html Yet if there were do-overs, he'd definitely go 35-40 picks earlier.

Sometimes, nobody gets it right.
 
There is one guy who I haven't heard anyone mention on here who I really, really like. I've brought his name up here, and no one has ever responded, so I don't think anyone here knows who he is, surprisingly.

That would be Donatas Moteijunas from Benetton Treviso. IMO, he will be the best international player to come out of this draft. He has allstar potential, and is the closest thing to a young Dirk I have ever seen. Wouldn't be surprised to see him picked between #15-#25.

He's soft, but not Bargnani soft. I think we're looking at a mix between Dirk and Bargnani. I could be way off here, but I think there's a chance, 5 years down the road, he is the most versatile offensive big to come out of this draft, and he could very well slide into the 20's. I would consider packaging our 2nd round pick with cash, future pick, something along those lines, to pick him in the late first round if he's still there.
 
rainmaker said:
There is one guy who I haven't heard anyone mention on here who I really, really like. I've brought his name up here, and no one has ever responded, so I don't think anyone here knows who he is, surprisingly.

That would be Donatas Moteijunas from Benetton Treviso. IMO, he will be the best international player to come out of this draft. He has allstar potential, and is the closest thing to a young Dirk I have ever seen. Wouldn't be surprised to see him picked between #15-#25.

He's soft, but not Bargnani soft. I think we're looking at a mix between Dirk and Bargnani. I could be way off here, but I think there's a chance, 5 years down the road, he is the most versatile offensive big to come out of this draft, and he could very well slide into the 20's. I would consider packaging our 2nd round pick with cash, future pick, something along those lines, to pick him in the late first round if he's still there.
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The question with "The Donut" is this - is he a bear claw, or is he rainbow sprinkles? I don't really have any idea, but he's got that dreaded "next Dirk Nowitzki" label, which hasn't panned out so far. But you never know, it could this time.

And for that reason, I seriously doubt he slides out of the lottery. It doesn't seem likely there will be any purchasable picks before he's off the board. I wouldn't be opposed to taking a chance on him, but I don't see a lot of opportunity for it.
 
rainmaker said:
That would be Donatas Moteijunas from Benetton Treviso.
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From what I gather there's still some uncertainty as to whether he'll stay in this year's draft.

But, that aside, do you think he'd be right for this team? His biggest weaknesses are supposed to be defense and rebounding, and those worry me. They worry me to the extent that I'd be more comfortable with the prospect of a big who could ONLY defend and rebound, and was a total project on the offensive end.

(I realize that he could be every bit the sleeper that you think, even if he were a bad fit for our particular team, I'm just curious.)
 
fnordius said:
But, that aside, do you think he'd be right for this team? His biggest weaknesses are supposed to be defense and rebounding, and those worry me. They worry me to the extent that I'd be more comfortable with the prospect of a big who could ONLY defend and rebound, and was a total project on the offensive end.

(I realize that he could be every bit the sleeper that you think, even if he were a bad fit for our particular team, I'm just curious.)
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I think he would fit next to Cousins, or a Cousins type center. You need a physical presence next to him. Maybe even next to Favors, if there is a possibilty Favors could play center, which I think there is. I say that because his wingspan makes him more like a 6'11"-7' type, and his strength even at a young age, is a)shotblocking, and b) man to man defense. He's a beast on the boards as well, so I'm no that concerned with his offense, which will take time to mature. He's extremely athletic too, when mixed with his reach, I don't see him having touble many nights in the nba, even if matched up against opposing centers. I would still say I prefer him at the 4 though.

Back to Moteijunas, there's no doubt whoever picks him, picks him for his offensive potential. He's frequently compared to Bargnani, but I see more Dirk in him. I think the Bargnani camparisons come because he's a very natural, and consistent, long distance shooter. Better than Dirk was at the same age. But I've watched a few of his games recently, and he is effective in the post, and attacks the basket. Much more than I've seen Bargnani. Thats why I think he's so versatile, he's a natural shooter, but it doesn't seem to be in his personality to settle.

Defensively, he needs work. I think part of his defesive problems come from the fact he needs to put on weight. Apparently he's added weight over the past year, and there isn't muc concern of him being able to continue to add weight over the next few years. I think he'll get better, but probably an average nba defender.

When I compare him to Dirk, it's only the skill set I'm referring to, and style of play. I have no idea if he'll ever get to that level, or near it. I would say right now, defensively he's not much worse than Spencer, but already is better on the offensive end. But you need to put him next to a center that plays defense and rebounds the ball, and hopefully is a presence in the post.
 
Motiejunas actually has more of a low post game than Bargnani, but the problem with Motiejunas is that he lacks the primary big man skills of rebounding, shot blocking, and all around post defense.
 
fnordius said:
*sigh*

My wishlist that year was Rondo, Sergio Rodriguez or Jordan Farmar, because Aldridge was out of reach, and I figured that after drafting two SGs, we would likely take a PG or a big. I thought that Marcus Williams' character issues ruled him out, leaving those other guys. But #47 Paul Millsap was below my radar, so I still managed my share of prophetic failure that year.

This year? I'll tell you right after the draft. After the first several picks, mocks are usually WAY off, and some of those guys might go 10 picks earlier (or later) than expected. And there's no telling who the steal of the draft will be until you know where they're picked.
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I was with you on Farmar and Rodriguez. I was fairly confident that Petrie was going to pick Rodriguez because I had heard that he was high on him. Im personal choice was Farmar..
 
fnordius said:
Looking over the next year's draft, I think we would have done a lot better to take Marc Gasol (#48) over Hawes (#10). But I can't think of a single poster here who wanted Gasol at #10. I didn't. The press said that he was pretty slow and maybe too unathletic to do very well in the NBA, and I didn't watch Spanish basketball, so I just believed them.

Draftexpress had Gasol going at #50. Of 15 mocks covered by nba.com, not one had Gasol going in the lottery. http://www.nba.com/features/draft2007_consensus.html Yet if there were do-overs, he'd definitely go 35-40 picks earlier.

Sometimes, nobody gets it right.
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I certainly had it wrong. He still isn't an above average athlete. But since he's lost all the weight he was carrying, he's turned into a different player. And with the shortage of good big men he'd be a lottery pick today..
 
Kingster said:
There has got to be even more pain if you wanted Rondo in that draft... (shaking my head).
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Rondo is a perfect example of why you need to have patience with a player. He didn't really emerge as a top flight pt guard until his third year. he's managed to get his field goal percentage up from 41% his first year to a respectable 50% this last season. His freethrow shooting still needs to improve, and his 3pt shooting is horrible at 21%. And 80 attempts from 3pt range might be too many for a guy that shoots that bad from out there. But he's improved in every other aspect of the game. He's always been a good defender, and he's even improved in that area in my opinion.

Who was that guy we drafted?
 
bajaden said:
Rondo is a perfect example of why you need to have patience with a player. He didn't really emerge as a top flight pt guard until his third year. he's managed to get his field goal percentage up from 41% his first year to a respectable 50% this last season. His freethrow shooting still needs to improve, and his 3pt shooting is horrible at 21%. And 80 attempts from 3pt range might be too many for a guy that shoots that bad from out there. But he's improved in every other aspect of the game. He's always been a good defender, and he's even improved in that area in my opinion.

Who was that guy we drafted?
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Yep. He's also a good example of how competitiveness + athleticism can create that very good player, if you have the patience to wait for the germination.
 
bajaden said:
Rondo is a perfect example of why you need to have patience with a player. He didn't really emerge as a top flight pt guard until his third year. he's managed to get his field goal percentage up from 41% his first year to a respectable 50% this last season. His freethrow shooting still needs to improve, and his 3pt shooting is horrible at 21%. And 80 attempts from 3pt range might be too many for a guy that shoots that bad from out there. But he's improved in every other aspect of the game. He's always been a good defender, and he's even improved in that area in my opinion.

Who was that guy we drafted?
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They didn't even need to exercise that much patience with him. He showed a lot of promise as a rookie on a 20 win team, than he was a legit starter and contributor for a championship team as a 2nd year guy. 3rd year is when he really started to blossom, but he was thrown into the fire and responded wonderfully.
 
I wouldn't call Rondo a needle in a haystack. His high school credentials were clearly top 10 in that draft, maybe top 5. He had two mediocre college seasons playing for a temperamental coach who couldn't seem to make up his mind whether Rondo was a starter or not and suddenly everyone was focusing on what he can't do. It happens to someone every year. Just look at Brandon Jennings last year falling to 10. No one can ever be 100% right about picking prospects because we have no way of really knowing what goes on inside these players heads, but sometimes you have to change the way you look at players.

With Rondo, for instance, everything he does well now was there to see before the draft. Terrific defender with a knack for coming up with big steals, freakishly huge hands which allow him to finish at the basket better than most guards, huge rebounding numbers, shaky/broken jumpshot, sometimes plays out of control. The lesson to be learned from Rondo is not to ignore what a player does well because those skills don't fit your ideal. Did I think Rondo was going to be posting Oscar Robertson type numbers in the playoffs as a 24 year old? No. But he had some truly exceptional skills that have made him a unique player. I'm not at all surprised he's the best defensive PG in the NBA right now (possibly Tyreke excepted ;) ) nor am I suprised he's grabbing double digit rebounds in big games, and no one else should be either.

And of course you can't discount the effect of the big three. There's probably no better way to learn the PG position than playing alongside 3 future hall-of-famers who won't let you get away with slacking off. I'm sure that helped him reach his potential.
 
hrdboild said:
I wouldn't call Rondo a needle in a haystack. His high school credentials were clearly top 10 in that draft, maybe top 5. He had two mediocre college seasons playing for a temperamental coach who couldn't seem to make up his mind whether Rondo was a starter or not and suddenly everyone was focusing on what he can't do. It happens to someone every year. Just look at Brandon Jennings last year falling to 10. No one can ever be 100% right about picking prospects because we have no way of really knowing what goes on inside these players heads, but sometimes you have to change the way you look at players.
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I think you have to be careful when judging a player on what they did in HS over what they did in college. Obviously, it would have worked out with Rondo. But that is more likely the exception more than the rule. I remember when I was in college, there was a player coming out of HS that was pretty much considered the #1 prospect. He went to St. John's and had a decent, but unremarkable college career. He would have been a top 5 pick coming out of HS, but I think he ended as a 2nd round pick. His name was Felipe Lopez. There are plenty of other HS players like him.
 
Telemachus said:
I think you have to be careful when judging a player on what they did in HS over what they did in college. Obviously, it would have worked out with Rondo. But that is more likely the exception more than the rule. I remember when I was in college, there was a player coming out of HS that was pretty much considered the #1 prospect. He went to St. John's and had a decent, but unremarkable college career. He would have been a top 5 pick coming out of HS, but I think he ended as a 2nd round pick. His name was Felipe Lopez. There are plenty of other HS players like him.
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Point taken. Guys which struggle in college and then put it together as pros are probably more the exception than the rule. But I don't think you can completely discount that production either. People were telling me Rondo couldn't score at the NBA level, but when I look back and see set scoring records in high school, I don't think players simply lose that kind of talent. That's basically what I meant by looking at players differently. A lot of people here are sophisticated enough to understand that, based on what I've read, so I'm not going to belabor the point. If a guy is getting all his points close to the basket but he's not tall enough to do it in the NBA that's a legitimate problem. If a guy has never had a reliable jumpshot but finds ways to score anyway, he's probably going to continue to do so. It's not about numbers, it's about watching how they get those numbers.
 
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