Monday, Oct. 10: vs. Maccabi Haifa-Israel

I'm one of his biggest critics but I like McLemore this preseason. We already know he can shoot the 3 decently so his 23% stat there doesn't bug me at all. What I like is that he's making some noise when he gets in the game. He's finally being aggressive.

Now once the regular season starts it would be nice to dial that aggressiveness back a bit so he's still out there looking to score but he's taking better shots so his total points go down a bit but his efficiency goes up. That way he's playing somewhere in the middle between his ultra aggressive preseason and his usual disappearing regular season act. I think there's a point in the middle there where he can be a decent rotation player as long as he's surrounded by the right guys. Having veterans that know how to play the game like Barnes, Temple and Tolliver will help him a lot.
 
Lighten up brother, it was a joke. Before Ben makes the All-Star team he needs to crack a 10 PER. And my entire thread you reference has proved prophetic. B-Mac is not done as a King. The coaching staff has high hopes. He's projecting to be a rotational player, as I anticipated based on comprehensive and insightful analysis that trumps any commentary you will find on the Kings by tenfold. My prognosis re: Ben is not etched in stone, since hoops is a matter of probability, not black and white, hence my 50/50 odds. However there was a near consensus sentiment by fans who declared "the writing was on the wall" based on our off-season moves, his replacements are moving into his locker, the sands of hourglass have expired, and we'd be lucky to get a 2nd round pick for him. Well we just turned down a former ROY for Ben, so obviously this assessment was a faux-paus. By the way your trade idea looks worse than it did one week with Koufos projecting as a starter one opening night.....that's pretty bad!

If you're going to claim to be this "unbiased truth seeker," I'm going to call you out when you contradict yourself which is what just occurred. If you're going to act arrogant and hype yourself up as some basketball god, you better make sure you're more consistent with your analyses.

I wouldn't trade McLemore for MCW either. He's not a good complement to our core players, advanced analytics hate him, and he's going to be a FA after this year. I'd much rather take a flyer on someone who theoretically would complement our core players. However, if we're moving McLemore for someone else who complements the team, is on a good contract, or helps land us a pick next year, then I'm taking a long, hard look.

I will be honest. It's been surprising to me that Joerger has started Koufos as much as he has, but that doesn't necessarily change my stance that it is poor cap management to pay $8 mil in cap space for a great backup C when you already have the best C in the league. Our team is not good enough at other positions to be spending $32 mil/year at C. Giving us the ability to reallocate that cap space to a position we can upgrade while improving the chances of retaining a lottery pick is still attractive in my book.
 
If you're going to claim to be this "unbiased truth seeker," I'm going to call you out when you contradict yourself which is what just occurred. If you're going to act arrogant and hype yourself up as some basketball god, you better make sure you're more consistent with your analyses.

I wouldn't trade McLemore for MCW either. He's not a good complement to our core players, advanced analytics hate him, and he's going to be a FA after this year. I'd much rather take a flyer on someone who theoretically would complement our core players. However, if we're moving McLemore for someone else who complements the team, is on a good contract, or helps land us a pick next year, then I'm taking a long, hard look.

I will be honest. It's been surprising to me that Joerger has started Koufos as much as he has, but that doesn't necessarily change my stance that it is poor cap management to pay $8 mil in cap space for a great backup C when you already have the best C in the league. Our team is not good enough at other positions to be spending $32 mil/year at C. Giving us the ability to reallocate that cap space to a position we can upgrade while improving the chances of retaining a lottery pick is still attractive in my book.

He's started him because he's clear and away the second best big on the roster and he stated he might want to initially start the game big. How terrible WCS has been just further reinforces how solid and necessary I think Koufos is
 
If you're going to claim to be this "unbiased truth seeker," I'm going to call you out when you contradict yourself which is what just occurred. If you're going to act arrogant and hype yourself up as some basketball god, you better make sure you're more consistent with your analyses.

I wouldn't trade McLemore for MCW either. He's not a good complement to our core players, advanced analytics hate him, and he's going to be a FA after this year. I'd much rather take a flyer on someone who theoretically would complement our core players. However, if we're moving McLemore for someone else who complements the team, is on a good contract, or helps land us a pick next year, then I'm taking a long, hard look.

I will be honest. It's been surprising to me that Joerger has started Koufos as much as he has, but that doesn't necessarily change my stance that it is poor cap management to pay $8 mil in cap space for a great backup C when you already have the best C in the league. Our team is not good enough at other positions to be spending $32 mil/year at C. Giving us the ability to reallocate that cap space to a position we can upgrade while improving the chances of retaining a lottery pick is still attractive in my book.

I don't feel like you called me out, I feel you misinterpreted by attempt a humor. I don't think I am a basketball god, I am more modest, I am more like a Sultan of the Swat or Highness of Hardwood. ;) How do you conclude we are spending $32 million per year at C....more dubious analysis! If Boogie stays lean and fit as he looks so far, the best he has looked in his career, his natural position may be PF....with Koufos and Willie logging ALL, yes ALL, the minutes at center. So the premise to your assertion is fundamentally flawed. The Koufos-Boogie failed duo of last year was more related to pace, Cousin's poor conditioning than lack of complementary skill. II have said for years Boogie may be best complement by a center to absorb pounding down low and do the dirty work, to decrease Boogie's rebounding and interior responsibilities, to free him to create more havoc on the other end at a better efficiency, to be the facilitator AND finisher on offense. We are sort of seeing the aforementioned strategy play out with Joerger's high post offense.
 
Cousins is on a mere 30.5ppg, 11rpg, 6apg and 2.7spg with 2bpg rate per36...... total scrub! And yes, before Blob quotes me, I do see the 6 turnovers and 7 fouls per game. Ain't no one perfect :p
You are not going to get any criticism from me, I think Boogie looks amazing. And as importantly I think he's being used the right way.
 
I don't feel like you called me out, I feel you misinterpreted by attempt a humor. I don't think I am a basketball god, I am more modest, I am more like a Sultan of the Swat or Highness of Hardwood. ;) How do you conclude we are spending $32 million per year at C....more dubious analysis! If Boogie stays lean and fit as he looks so far, the best he has looked in his career, his natural position may be PF....with Koufos and Willie logging ALL, yes ALL, the minutes at center. So the premise to your assertion is fundamentally flawed. The Koufos-Boogie failed duo of last year was more related to pace, Cousin's poor conditioning than lack of complementary skill. II have said for years Boogie may be best complement by a center to absorb pounding down low and do the dirty work, to decrease Boogie's rebounding and interior responsibilities, to free him to create more havoc on the other end at a better efficiency, to be the facilitator AND finisher on offense. We are sort of seeing the aforementioned strategy play out with Joerger's high post offense.

It may or may not work out better. It certainly has it's drawbacks but you seem to gloss over those, so let me help you out...

Is Cousins quick enough to guard PFs? Iffy. Considering that there are more good to great offensive PFs in the league than Cs, you're actually asking him to (more often that not) take the tougher assignment on defense. That could lead to more energy being spent & more fouls picked up by Cousins. That doesn't sound like a very attractive option...

The comment about rebounding is curious. Cousins is one of the best rebounders in the league. We want him down there getting boards and cleaning everything up. One of the reasons why the defense is so good when he is on the floor is because teams do not get as many 2nd chance points with him ending opposing team's possessions. If Cousins is all of a sudden sucked to the perimeter and Koufos is meant to be "that guy" now, I think it could potentially hurt more than help.

The fact that Cousins has been best at C is where the analysis comes from. Koufos is exclusively a C, Papagiannis is exclusively a C, and Cauley-Stein was statistically better at C last year than he was at PF. Usually, if you want to maximize your team, you play your players where they are best hence $32 mil at C. Not as dubious as you may have thought...

Then there is the obvious spacing issue on offense with having a guy like Koufos in the game when Cousins is in the post or driving into the lane from the high post. That's not to say Cauley-Stein would be much better in this role, but it at least appears to look like he has been working on a jumper (sessions with Peja).

Cousins has been a top 5 C defensively in this league the past 2 years. Believe it or not, his contribution to this team has been on the defensive side of the ball which is kind of scary to think about. We have a plethora of stats that show how well the team does with & without Boogie and the bulk of that is coming from the defensive side of the ball. Moving him to PF could potentially limit his defensive impact, and considering he is so good in that role, it would be very risky.

If Cousins is able to increase his offensive efficiency to a level that is consistent with other superstars, this team has the potential to take off. I think a lot of that offensive growth will come from how Joerger uses Cousins, Joerger's overall system, & Cousins understanding that it isn't about him scoring. It's about the team scoring. If those three things "click," Kings fans are going to be very happy this year.

And lastly, I don't necessarily take offense to your points & arguments. I feel like we approach things similarly and have a very analytical approach that uses a fair amount of evidence/data to back up our claims. I even agree with your assessment with Boogie last year. Brick's constant praise for a 27 PPG Boogie with below average efficiency was puzzling to say the least. Despite this "historic" offensive season by Cousins, his Offensive On/Off was only +2.8 pts per 100 possessions, his ORPM was only 1.58 (#45 in the league), and most importantly his ORAPM was a mere 0.34 (#116 in the league). Now I don't believe that Boogie was the reason we were bad last year (I think that's where we disagree). A below average Boogie with a stable franchise, competent coach, and complementary roleplayers is still enough to be competitive in this league, but yes, Cousins can definitely improve as a player to help carry this team further (mainly on the offensive side of the ball)

But again, it's the way you come across & the fact that you seem (at least to me) to think you're somehow better than everyone else that posts here. It's probably too much for me to ask you to change your ways, so I'll just suck it up ;)
 
You are not going to get any criticism from me, I think Boogie looks amazing. And as importantly I think he's being used the right
It may or may not work out better. It certainly has it's drawbacks but you seem to gloss over those, so let me help you out...

Is Cousins quick enough to guard PFs? Iffy. Considering that there are more good to great offensive PFs in the league than Cs, you're actually asking him to (more often that not) take the tougher assignment on defense. That could lead to more energy being spent & more fouls picked up by Cousins. That doesn't sound like a very attractive option...

The comment about rebounding is curious. Cousins is one of the best rebounders in the league. We want him down there getting boards and cleaning everything up. One of the reasons why the defense is so good when he is on the floor is because teams do not get as many 2nd chance points with him ending opposing team's possessions. If Cousins is all of a sudden sucked to the perimeter and Koufos is meant to be "that guy" now, I think it could potentially hurt more than help.

The fact that Cousins has been best at C is where the analysis comes from. Koufos is exclusively a C, Papagiannis is exclusively a C, and Cauley-Stein was statistically better at C last year than he was at PF. Usually, if you want to maximize your team, you play your players where they are best hence $32 mil at C. Not as dubious as you may have thought...

Then there is the obvious spacing issue on offense with having a guy like Koufos in the game when Cousins is in the post or driving into the lane from the high post. That's not to say Cauley-Stein would be much better in this role, but it at least appears to look like he has been working on a jumper (sessions with Peja).

Cousins has been a top 5 C defensively in this league the past 2 years. Believe it or not, his contribution to this team has been on the defensive side of the ball which is kind of scary to think about. We have a plethora of stats that show how well the team does with & without Boogie and the bulk of that is coming from the defensive side of the ball. Moving him to PF could potentially limit his defensive impact, and considering he is so good in that role, it would be very risky.

If Cousins is able to increase his offensive efficiency to a level that is consistent with other superstars, this team has the potential to take off. I think a lot of that offensive growth will come from how Joerger uses Cousins, Joerger's overall system, & Cousins understanding that it isn't about him scoring. It's about the team scoring. If those three things "click," Kings fans are going to be very happy this year.

And lastly, I don't necessarily take offense to your points & arguments. I feel like we approach things similarly and have a very analytical approach that uses a fair amount of evidence/data to back up our claims. I even agree with your assessment with Boogie last year. Brick's constant praise for a 27 PPG Boogie with below average efficiency was puzzling to say the least. Despite this "historic" offensive season by Cousins, his Offensive On/Off was only +2.8 pts per 100 possessions, his ORPM was only 1.58 (#45 in the league), and most importantly his ORAPM was a mere 0.34 (#116 in the league). Now I don't believe that Boogie was the reason we were bad last year (I think that's where we disagree). A below average Boogie with a stable franchise, competent coach, and complementary roleplayers is still enough to be competitive in this league, but yes, Cousins can definitely improve as a player to help carry this team further (mainly on the offensive side of the ball)

But again, it's the way you come across & the fact that you seem (at least to me) to think you're somehow better than everyone else that posts here. It's probably too much for me to ask you to change your ways, so I'll just suck it up ;)

Two separate issues of whether or not Cousins is best as a 4/5, and whether Willie or Papa have shown to be top 9 rotation players on this deep team stepping in for a solid role player like Koufos

Joerger admitted after the press conference last night that it's still in flux if the two bigs will work (so I expect to see other combos coming up), but the starting unit has worked so far

If they want to change the 4 spot around I would expect other options than Willie given his string of recent play, but we will see
 
Two separate issues of whether or not Cousins is best as a 4/5, and whether Willie or Papa have shown to be top 9 rotation players on this deep team stepping in for a solid role player like Koufos

Joerger admitted after the press conference last night that it's still in flux if the two bigs will work (so I expect to see other combos coming up), but the starting unit has worked so far

If they want to change the 4 spot around I would expect other options than Willie given his string of recent play, but we will see
It's not two separate issues because you are disregarding other players who can fill the PF position, and although WCS hasn't looked as good as we have hoped, it's a small sample size. We have a full year's worth of tape last year where he showed promise (hence why Cousins & Rondo lobbied for him to get more minutes). I wouldn't be so quick to throw that data out the door.
 
It may or may not work out better. It certainly has it's drawbacks but you seem to gloss over those, so let me help you out...

Is Cousins quick enough to guard PFs? Iffy. Considering that there are more good to great offensive PFs in the league than Cs, you're actually asking him to (more often that not) take the tougher assignment on defense. That could lead to more energy being spent & more fouls picked up by Cousins. That doesn't sound like a very attractive option...

The comment about rebounding is curious. Cousins is one of the best rebounders in the league. We want him down there getting boards and cleaning everything up. One of the reasons why the defense is so good when he is on the floor is because teams do not get as many 2nd chance points with him ending opposing team's possessions. If Cousins is all of a sudden sucked to the perimeter and Koufos is meant to be "that guy" now, I think it could potentially hurt more than help.

The fact that Cousins has been best at C is where the analysis comes from. Koufos is exclusively a C, Papagiannis is exclusively a C, and Cauley-Stein was statistically better at C last year than he was at PF. Usually, if you want to maximize your team, you play your players where they are best hence $32 mil at C. Not as dubious as you may have thought...

Then there is the obvious spacing issue on offense with having a guy like Koufos in the game when Cousins is in the post or driving into the lane from the high post. That's not to say Cauley-Stein would be much better in this role, but it at least appears to look like he has been working on a jumper (sessions with Peja).

Cousins has been a top 5 C defensively in this league the past 2 years. Believe it or not, his contribution to this team has been on the defensive side of the ball which is kind of scary to think about. We have a plethora of stats that show how well the team does with & without Boogie and the bulk of that is coming from the defensive side of the ball. Moving him to PF could potentially limit his defensive impact, and considering he is so good in that role, it would be very risky.

If Cousins is able to increase his offensive efficiency to a level that is consistent with other superstars, this team has the potential to take off. I think a lot of that offensive growth will come from how Joerger uses Cousins, Joerger's overall system, & Cousins understanding that it isn't about him scoring. It's about the team scoring. If those three things "click," Kings fans are going to be very happy this year.

And lastly, I don't necessarily take offense to your points & arguments. I feel like we approach things similarly and have a very analytical approach that uses a fair amount of evidence/data to back up our claims. I even agree with your assessment with Boogie last year. Brick's constant praise for a 27 PPG Boogie with below average efficiency was puzzling to say the least. Despite this "historic" offensive season by Cousins, his Offensive On/Off was only +2.8 pts per 100 possessions, his ORPM was only 1.58 (#45 in the league), and most importantly his ORAPM was a mere 0.34 (#116 in the league). Now I don't believe that Boogie was the reason we were bad last year (I think that's where we disagree). A below average Boogie with a stable franchise, competent coach, and complementary roleplayers is still enough to be competitive in this league, but yes, Cousins can definitely improve as a player to help carry this team further (mainly on the offensive side of the ball)

But again, it's the way you come across & the fact that you seem (at least to me) to think you're somehow better than everyone else that posts here. It's probably too much for me to ask you to change your ways, so I'll just suck it up ;)

I don't think I am better than anyone else, but I think my opinions on the Kings are. ;) In regards to Boogie, those advanced stats are informative and function of the wide variance he displayed, including a magical first of half of January, a fall off the cliff the latter half of that month, and a December that put us behind the 8-ball when we gave away winnable games against crummy opponents. In retrospect, his health and weight was an issue, which was speculation (criticism) at the time on my part with regards to the consistency of his effort, his temperament and immaturity.

When adversity would strike in form of a ref who "wouldn't give him a break" or formidable front line that made it challenging for Boogie to bulldoze to the hoop, he would press the issue. Where patience and discipline and savvy was needed, he lost his composure and would shoot his team out of games, get frustrated with misses and take frustration out through half-hearted defense effort and sour disposition. The stats do not reflect this directly, but indirectly this is why his efficiency suffered: (1) health and fitness (2) poise and maturity.

I bring this up because whether you play Boogie at PF or C, with Koufos or Willie, at the three point line, the low post or high post, growth in this area in particular less variance between on and off games, all-world and all YMCA, is going to a predictive variable as to how far this team goes. It has always been my contention that for the Kings to make the playoffs, which I think they are capable of doing, not only does the supporting cast around Boogie have to improve (including coaching), Boogie has to be better too. This is the argument I've had with Bricklayer and fans who think the source of underachievement are variables surrounding Boogie, and he is immune from criticism. This is non-sense.

I agree with your sentiment:

If Cousins is able to increase his offensive efficiency to a level that is consistent with other superstars, this team has the potential to take off

A 53.8% TS (scoring efficiency), a 0.7 assist to turnover (passing efficiency), and guarding his man 6 out of 10 possessions instead of 9 out of 10, especially when his usage was an astronomical 35.4% is not going to lead team anywhere but the lottery. The only way those efficiency numbers and approximate defensive effort gets you anywhere would be hypothetically if his usage dipped below 25% and his supporting cast picked up the slack at a plus level.

The high post offense, Affalo, incorporating rather than excluding Rudy, suggest Boogie's usage is likely to come down. This is important. The team needs to compete and win on nights he doesn't go for 33/16. And on nights Boogie shoots 15 FGAs instead of 25 FGAs. And relatedly Boogie can't feel like he needs to dominate offensively. He has to have more confidence and trust in the system and his teammates. Unless Boogie was a masterful low post scorer with an array of high percentage moves, and those paying attention know he doesn't possess Hakeem or Ewing-like post skills, it is unacceptable and unreasonable for Boogie to have such a soaring usage.

Sharing the wealth and getting best shot on every possession is a matter of planning (coaching) and execution (players), and doing so consistently will be a predictor of the season. Accordingly, the benchmarks for success for Cousins (as they have been for the past three seasons!) are 55% TS or better and 1.0 assist to turnover or better, consistent defensive effort and usage around 25%. I would even be okay with a 0.8 to 0.9 assist to turnover if Boogie scores the ball with an efficiency I think he is capable of. I think with the rate at which he gets fouled (best in NBA besides Harden), and if he gets better a shot selection that he started to show in the latter half of last season, I think he can be 56% to 58% TS.

For all the discussion about system and rotation and starting line-ups, it still is going to come down to how our best player performs. We have a new arena and coach and new sources of optimism, but some things remain the same.
 
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I was at the game. My observation was the ball moves so much better, our defense is more active and stingy, and Cousins is going to feast on defenses trying to double him with our floor spacing. Also, Lawson will keep the starting job once Collison comes back.
 
A 53.8% TS (scoring efficiency), a 0.7 assist to turnover (passing efficiency), and guarding his man 6 out of 10 possessions instead of 9 out of 10, especially when his usage was an astronomical 35.4% is not going to lead team anywhere but the lottery. The only way those efficiency numbers and approximate defensive effort gets you anywhere would be hypothetically if his usage dipped below 25% and his supporting cast picked up the slack at a plus level.

f40455c22a124a8db83d1d357388b4b8.jpg


'98-99 TS%: .541 A/T: 0.83 Team Record: 37-13 (won title)
'99-00 TS% .555 A/T: 0.96 Team Record: 53-29
'00-01 TS% .536 A/T: 1.00 Team Record: 58-24

frozencover.jpg

'92-93 TS%: .546 A/T: 0.58 Team Record: 60-22
'93-94 TS% .551 A/T: 0.69 Team Record: 57-25
'94-95 TS% .555 A/T: 0.83 Team Record: 55-27


courtesy-insidesocal.com_-300x200.jpg
 
And please don't come back with the made up defense stuff.

a) Cousins was 13th in the NBA in DRPM last year. He was highly effective.
b) if you want to argue that it takes Duncan/Ewing level defense to win a title with those offensive numbers, feel free. Doubt its so black and white, but whatever. But you can damn well be a solid to good team with a lot less defense than those guys brought.
 
Wake me up when the regular season starts. The rest of this stuff is meaningless. Except what Bricky says of course..:rolleyes:
 
This big rotation stuff would be so much easier if WCS pulled his head outta his butt.

I don't want to discount what was a solid rookie year for him. Hopefully it's just a learning curve for him with the new system and he'll get it together.

Otherwise, I'm echoing Baja's sentiments. Is it the RS yet?!
 
f40455c22a124a8db83d1d357388b4b8.jpg


'98-99 TS%: .541 A/T: 0.83 Team Record: 37-13 (won title)
'99-00 TS% .555 A/T: 0.96 Team Record: 53-29
'00-01 TS% .536 A/T: 1.00 Team Record: 58-24

frozencover.jpg

'92-93 TS%: .546 A/T: 0.58 Team Record: 60-22
'93-94 TS% .551 A/T: 0.69 Team Record: 57-25
'94-95 TS% .555 A/T: 0.83 Team Record: 55-27


courtesy-insidesocal.com_-300x200.jpg

It is interesting to me you feel the need to include graphics to try to support the validity of your opinion.

Regardless let me just quickly refute your opinion, it won't take long. :)

Mr Fundamental is the Greatest Power Forward of All-Time and to put his name in the same breath with Boogie's is an insult to him and his extraordinary career and competitor in contrast to a player who has never, repeat never, led a team on a playoff run.

Note: I didn't say make the playoffs, I said have his team within striking distance of playoffs with 20 to 30 games left in another futile campaign. That's a low bar and Boogie has not yet rise to it. This is an inditement of his performance regardless of the turmoil surrounding him, reflecting his conditioning, maturity and efficiency. As an aside, I am more optimistic than ever he's going to have a fantastic season, but this does not excuse the past.

Now onto the stats:

The years you sight with regards to Timmy from 1998-2001 was when the game was played differently. You could be more physical in the post without a whistle and three ball was not emphasized nearly to the extent it is today. This depressed TS% collectively. You are comparing apples to oranges. The game was played differently then. You could dislodge a man out of the post. You could put a forearm in the back and push. You could effectively chuck an opponent to the ground and the ref would say "play on". By my estimation a 54% TS back in the day of the Bad Boys would equate to 56% TS by today's standards, because a big man would get to the line more often and defender would not be allowed to play as physically in the post.

So that refutes that.

Now instead of cherry picking stats from an irrelevant era lets look at the whole picture with statistical smoothing:

Timmy TS% (career): 55.1%
Boogie TS% (career): 52.6%

Timmy ASST:TO (career): 1.4 (!)
Boogie ASST:TO (career): o.8 (!)

Timmy USAGE (career): 27%
Boogie USAGE (career): 31.1%

By citing Duncan as an example, you make my case. These numbers are stark are revelatory. And speak to the individual benchmarks I have set for Boogie 4 years in a row! You can win with one, you can't with the other. Especially when one is a great leader, a model example of sportsmanship and competitiveness and the other is a tech and personal foul leader who has NO record of inspiring or leading teammates. In many respects, Boogie is the antithesis of Timmy related to intangible factors. The former is the epitome of classlessness on the court. The latter is the epitome of class on the court.

To ignore this distinction is inane and bias.

Here's the last takeaway before I drop the mic: Boogie's soaring usage vs. Timmy is not justified given his scoring and passing efficiency. This is double whammy underpinning 50 and 60 loss seasons. You have a player shooting and passing at efficiency level that does NOT justify this volume. If Boogie wants to sustain a 30+ usage rate, then he needed earlier in his six year career to (1) read double teams better and make the smart simple pass and (2) develop a reliable go-to move out of the post. He did NOT do that. Timmy did and the numbers above reflect so definitively.

/mic dropped
 
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It is interesting to me you feel the need to include graphics to try to support the validity of your opinion.

Regardless let me just quickly refute your opinion, it won't take long. :)

Mr Fundamental is the Greatest Power Forward of All-Time and to put his name in the same breath with Boogie's is an insult to him and his extraordinary career and competitor in contrast to a player who has never, repeat never, led a team on a playoff run.

Note: I didn't say make the playoffs, I said have his team within striking distance of playoffs with 20 to 30 games left in another futile campaign. That's a low bar and Boogie has not yet rise to it. This is an inditement of his performance regardless of the turmoil surrounding him, reflecting his conditioning, maturity and efficiency. As an aside, I am more optimistic than ever he's going to have a fantastic season, but this does not excuse the past.

Now onto the stats:

The years you sight with regards to Timmy from 1998-2001 was when the game was played differently. You could be more physical in the post without a whistle and three ball was not emphasized nearly to the extent it is today. This depressed TS% collectively. You are comparing apples to oranges. The game was played differently then. You could dislodge a man out of the post. You could put a forearm in the back and push. You could effectively chuck an opponent to the ground and the ref would say "play on". By my estimation a 54% TS back in the day of the Bad Boys would equate to 56% TS by today's standards, because a big man would get to the line more often and defender would not be allowed to play as physically in the post.

So that refutes that.

Now instead of cherry picking stats from an irrelevant era lets look at the whole picture with statistical smoothing:

Timmy TS% (career): 55.1%
Boogie TS% (career): 52.6%

Timmy ASST:TO (career): 1.4 (!)
Boogie ASST:TO (career): o.8 (!)

Timmy USAGE (career): 27%
Boogie USAGE (career): 31.1%

By citing Duncan as an example, you make my case. These numbers are stark are revelatory. And speak to the individual benchmarks I have set for Boogie 4 years in a row! You can win with one, you can't with the other. Especially when one is a great leader, a model example of sportsmanship and competitiveness and the other is a tech and personal leader who has NO record of inspiring or leading teammates. In many respects, Boogie is the anti-thesis of Timmy related to intangible factors. The former is the epitome of classlessness on the court. The latter is the epitome of class on the court.

To ignore this distinction is inane and bias.

Here's the last takeaway before I drop the mic: Boogie's soaring usage vs. Timmy is not justified given his scoring and passing efficiency. This is double whammy underpinning 50 and 60 loss seasons. You have a player shooting and passing at efficiency level that does NOT justify this volume. If Boogie wants to sustain a 30+ usage rate, then he needed earlier in his six year career to (1) read double teams better and make the smart simple pass and (2) develop a reliable go-to move out of the post. He did NOT do that. Timmy did and the numbers above reflect so definitively.

/mic dropped
If you put Cousins in Duncan's place on the Spurs for his career to point, he would be involved in playoff runs. I just shredded your hypothesis in 1 sentence.
 
Now onto the stats:

The years you sight with regards to Timmy from 1998-2001 was when the game was played differently. You could be more physical in the post without a whistle and three ball was not emphasized nearly to the extent it is today. This depressed TS% collectively. You are comparing apples to oranges. The game was played differently then. You could dislodge a man out of the post. You could put a forearm in the back and push. You could effectively chuck an opponent to the ground and the ref would say "play on". By my estimation a 54% TS back in the day of the Bad Boys would equate to 56% TS by today's standards, because a big man would get to the line more often and defender would not be allowed to play as physically in the post.

For what it's worth, here is the NBA League-Wide TS% throughout its history:

nba_ts_history1.png


There's a bit of a dip of maybe .02 centered for about six years around 2000. I'm not sure how much I would make of it, though.
 
The years you sight with regards to Timmy from 1998-2001 was when the game was played differently. You could be more physical in the post without a whistle and three ball was not emphasized nearly to the extent it is today. This depressed TS% collectively. You are comparing apples to oranges. The game was played differently then. You could dislodge a man out of the post. You could put a forearm in the back and push. You could effectively chuck an opponent to the ground and the ref would say "play on". By my estimation a 54% TS back in the day of the Bad Boys would equate to 56% TS by today's standards, because a big man would get to the line more often and defender would not be allowed to play as physically in the post.

Interesting hypothesis to say the least, but that's just what it is. A hypothesis. I don't really take a lot of stock in your "estimation." Prove it to us.

What you should have led with in your argument against Brick is the varying league wide TS%. The point being, if Cousins gets up to 60% TS% but the league average is 70%, well I'm sorry to say Cousins was not good enough this year. Now, 70% is obviously not going to happen, but it's there to illustrate a point. Cousins has been above the league average twice in his career: 2013-14 (Malone) & 2014-15 (Malone/Corbin/Karl). Every other year, including last year, he was below the league average. The year's Brick cites for Duncan & Ewing look like this:

'98-99
Duncan: 54.1%
League: 51.1%
Diff: +3.0%

'99-00
Duncan: .555
League: .523
Diff: +3.2%

'00-01
Duncan: 536
League: .518
Diff: +1.8%

'92-93
Ewing: 54.6%
League: 53.6%
Diff: +1.0%

'93-94
Ewing: 55.1%
League: 52.8%
Diff: +2.3%

'94-95
Ewing: 55.5%
League: 54.3%
Diff: +1.2%

As you can see, Duncan & Ewing were above league average each year, and for players who are scoring above 20 points a game with usages 27+, that's a very good thing.

Considering the league wide TS% has never exceeded 54.5%, hoping Cousins gets 55% will mean that he most likely is above average in that category.
 
For what it's worth, here is the NBA League-Wide TS% throughout its history:

nba_ts_history1.png


There's a bit of a dip of maybe .02 centered for about six years around 2000. I'm not sure how much I would make of it, though.
By what I'm seeing, TS% took a dip in '97-98 and started to gain momentum again by '04-05. The 3 point line was lengthened in '97-98 which may be playing some role in the decreased TS% as players had to adjust and work on extending their range further.
 
There is one more point I would like to add before I forget. I guess I will pick up the mic :)

I know you (Bricklayer) are a fan of citing Duncan and Ewing as a players from a former era relative to Boogie. You use this comparison with cherry picked stats as basis for what he can achieve prospectively and projected inclusion into the HOF. I challenge this comparison for reasons cited above and because if differing playing styles.

There is a better comparison I think you conveniently ignore.

Boogie is a power player with incredible agility and handles for a man his size. He has a face up game out to 20 feet (and more recently three point land). Duncan was a finesse player with a half hook and banker out of the post. He shot a line drive jumper from 15 feet with modest success. He also didn't look to bully his way to the hoop. He looked to establish his sweet spot on the block and feathery touch for two. This is NOT Boogie's game at all! Duncan and Boogie are comparable by height and position NOT style.

If we are going to look to the past, the better comparison in terms of playing style was Charles Barkley. Yes, I know there differ in height by six inches. But Boogie and Charles are power players with dynamic games inside and outside. They establish their edge through combination of force and agility and first step to blow by their man.

It is undeniable and inarguable that Boogie resembles Sir Charles far more in his approach to the game than Mr. Fundamental....this includes his volatile temper, pension for drama and massive ego!!!!

Though he never got the ring, Charles had a great career and I think all of us Kings fans would be happy if Boogie could experience the same level of team success while leading the way, with top playoff seeding 45-55 win seasons, and threat to go far in the playoffs.

Let's take a sneak peek at Sir Charles scoring and passing efficiency, and let the numbers speak for themselves. Charles was not a defense stopper, nor did he possess the defensive potential of Boogie, and perhaps contributed to his teams never winning it all, but the massive discrepancy between Charles offensive prowess versus Boogie quantifies bestowing greatness on the latter is premature:

Sir Charles TS% (career): 61.2%
Boogie TS% (career): 52.6%

Sir Charles ASST:TO (career): 1.3
Boogie ASST: TO (career): 0.8

Sir Charles USAGE (career): 24.8%
Boogie USAGE (career): 31.1%

/mic dropped take two :cool:
 
Interesting hypothesis to say the least, but that's just what it is. A hypothesis. I don't really take a lot of stock in your "estimation." Prove it to us.

What you should have led with in your argument against Brick is the varying league wide TS%. The point being, if Cousins gets up to 60% TS% but the league average is 70%, well I'm sorry to say Cousins was not good enough this year. Now, 70% is obviously not going to happen, but it's there to illustrate a point. Cousins has been above the league average twice in his career: 2013-14 (Malone) & 2014-15 (Malone/Corbin/Karl). Every other year, including last year, he was below the league average. The year's Brick cites for Duncan & Ewing look like this:

'98-99
Duncan: 54.1%
League: 51.1%
Diff: +3.0%

'99-00
Duncan: .555
League: .523
Diff: +3.2%

'00-01
Duncan: 536
League: .518
Diff: +1.8%

'92-93
Ewing: 54.6%
League: 53.6%
Diff: +1.0%

'93-94
Ewing: 55.1%
League: 52.8%
Diff: +2.3%

'94-95
Ewing: 55.5%
League: 54.3%
Diff: +1.2%

As you can see, Duncan & Ewing were above league average each year, and for players who are scoring above 20 points a game with usages 27+, that's a very good thing.

Considering the league wide TS% has never exceeded 54.5%, hoping Cousins gets 55% will mean that he most likely is above average in that category.

Poor argument barely worthy of response. I know you are trying hard to win a debate against me after being thoroughly dominated RE: Ben (BOOM!) and RE: Awful Trade Idea (BOOM!) but your color-coded posts and irrelevancies are not going to assist you to your objective. I do admire your persistence and research and coherent presentation but it is not working out for you so well so far. But keep trying brother!

I already substantiated Boogie is the least efficient offensive player (scoring and passing) among current NBA players with a usage rate over 25%. Boogie is in Melo territory, and IIRC slightly below, unsurprisingly he looks up to him as a guy to pattern his game after. And unsurprisingly Melo has his team nowhere over the last 3-4 seasons.

Nowhere did I contend Duncan and Ewing were inefficient relative to their counterparts of their era (league). My contention is the comparison is dubious and cherry picked and ignores fundamental variables related to the divergent paths their careers have taken.

/steps on mic exit stage left :cool:
 
Poor argument barely worthy of response. I know you are trying hard to win a debate against me after being thoroughly dominated RE: Ben (BOOM!) and RE: Awful Trade Idea (BOOM!) but your color-coded posts and irrelevancies are not going to assist you to your objective. I do admire your persistence and research and coherent presentation but it is not working out for you so well so far. But keep trying brother!

I already substantiated Boogie is the least efficient offensive player (scoring and passing) among current NBA players with a usage rate over 25%. Boogie is in Melo territory, and IIRC slightly below, unsurprisingly he looks up to him as a guy to pattern his game after. And unsurprisingly Melo has his team nowhere over the last 3-4 seasons.

Nowhere did I contend Duncan and Ewing were inefficient relative to their counterparts of their era (league). My contention is the comparison is dubious and cherry picked and ignores fundamental variables related to the divergent paths their careers have taken.

/steps on mic exit stage left :cool:
Again, your opinion is not fact around here. If you think you "won" in your eyes. Congratulations! Go have a beer to celebrate, but the fact is we both have provided ample evidence across many topics. The difference between us is that you are very absolute and select your evidence to make a point.

In regards to Ben, strength does not equal success in this league. Ben's biggest issue has been IQ & mental. You see a deadlift of 500lbs from his Instagram account and some reports that McLemore has been working hard in the offseason (during a time where he may or may not have been involved in trades to increase his value) and you eat it up. McLemore has always been a gym rat. He has always been a hard worker off the court. That was one of his pluses coming out of college. It remains to be seen if he can actually play the game of basketball at a high level. For him to stick in this league, he needs to improve his mental game. Do you disagree?

It's pointless continuing to bring up the trade because we're on both ends of the spectrum. I value the strategic portion of cap space, manageable contracts, and increasing the chances of having a lottery pick, and you are banking on the progression of a 4 year player who's biggest leap is mental. That's fine. We have our differences. You're not going to change my mind and I'm not going to change yours...


In regards to Duncan & Ewing, please show me where I accused you of saying that Duncan or Ewing were inefficient? If you're going to try and belittle my post, at least have the intellect to understand it.

Just to be clear, I was helping your argument. You took a very iffy stance as to the Duncan/Ewing vs. Cousins point (saying that I would estimate a 54% TS% back then is equal to a 56% TS today), and I backed it up with better evidence. Last time I do you a favor...sheesh
 
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There is one more point I would like to add before I forget. I guess I will pick up the mic :)

I know you (Bricklayer) are a fan of citing Duncan and Ewing as a players from a former era relative to Boogie. You use this comparison with cherry picked stats as basis for what he can achieve prospectively and projected inclusion into the HOF. I challenge this comparison for reasons cited above and because if differing playing styles.

There is a better comparison I think you conveniently ignore.

Boogie is a power player with incredible agility and handles for a man his size. He has a face up game out to 20 feet (and more recently three point land). Duncan was a finesse player with a half hook and banker out of the post. He shot a line drive jumper from 15 feet with modest success. He also didn't look to bully his way to the hoop. He looked to establish his sweet spot on the block and feathery touch for two. This is NOT Boogie's game at all! Duncan and Boogie are comparable by height and position NOT style.

If we are going to look to the past, the better comparison in terms of playing style was Charles Barkley. Yes, I know there differ in height by six inches. But Boogie and Charles are power players with dynamic games inside and outside. They establish their edge through combination of force and agility and first step to blow by their man.

It is undeniable and inarguable that Boogie resembles Sir Charles far more in his approach to the game than Mr. Fundamental....this includes his volatile temper, pension for drama and massive ego!!!!

Though he never got the ring, Charles had a great career and I think all of us Kings fans would be happy if Boogie could experience the same level of team success while leading the way, with top playoff seeding 45-55 win seasons, and threat to go far in the playoffs.

Let's take a sneak peek at Sir Charles scoring and passing efficiency, and let the numbers speak for themselves. Charles was not a defense stopper, nor did he possess the defensive potential of Boogie, and perhaps contributed to his teams never winning it all, but the massive discrepancy between Charles offensive prowess versus Boogie quantifies bestowing greatness on the latter is premature:

Sir Charles TS% (career): 61.2%
Boogie TS% (career): 52.6%

Sir Charles ASST:TO (career): 1.3
Boogie ASST: TO (career): 0.8

Sir Charles USAGE (career): 24.8%
Boogie USAGE (career): 31.1%

/mic dropped take two :cool:

You've been watching too much of our current politics. Being bombastic is never a good substitute for being right, unless you can position yourself in front of an adoring crowd of dittoheads.

So here is your argument:

You can never win doing whatever it is that Boogie does ( and that is the real criteria, because there really is no principled or historic lesson being applied). Followed by a list of traits.

My counter:

Teams/great players have in fact won, and won heavily, while displaying similar traits to those you say teams/players can never win with.


Your response:

But see, this OTHER player didn't win with those traits (and actually said player won quite a bit, but still)


Which doesn't prove anything. You made an overbroad argument for a blanket impossibility. I showed that no such blanket impossibility exists. You then counter with but it didn't work this one time, which is no counter at all. I didn't argue that it worked everytime. I argued that it has in fact worked sometimes. Finding a case where it didn't work doesn't disprove my point in the least.


Your swagger is wasted by the weakness of the underlying basketball analysis. If you got the basketball more right, you wouldn't have to constantly work so hard to gussy up weak arguments with colorful and long winded rhetoric.


P.S. Attempts to use Boogie's career numbers again make me more than suspicious that you are just consistently dishonest with these arguments. You're not a moron. As a non-moron you are perfectly aware that Boogie's first three years were development years in the worst development environment possible, and have little to do with the effectiveness of the All NBA player that now leads the team. Its not even an argument, except to just be argumentative. Hence, its dishonest. Hence, your failings are conscious. I would have more patience for that if I actually did think you were stupid. As it is you are just willing to spin things to try to win an argument out of either malice or ego. Its not a good look, and not one I will ever let you get away with, so you should really consider stopping that.
 
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Back to the Maccabi game. One of the things the lopsided score did was provide Joerger a chance to tinker with lineups.

At one point he had a squad on the floor that apparently has never even practiced together up to this point - Lawson, Collison, McLemore, Tolliver, Koufos

That group pushed the lead from 27 points to 39 points and was lightning fast getting up and down the floor.

Do I want to see that group often? Nope. I much prefer the idea of going as big as possible while still giving Boogie spacing to punish defenders.

But it's pretty damn cool to have a deep and flexible roster that allows Joerger lots of different groups depending on the situation.
 
You've been watching too much of our current politics. Being bombastic is never a good substitute for being right, unless you can position yourself in front of an adoring crowd of dittoheads.

So here is your argument:

You can never win doing whatever it is that Boogie does ( and that is the real criteria, because there really is no principled or historic lesson being applied). Followed by a list of traits.

My counter:

Teams/great players have in fact won, and won heavily, while displaying similar traits to those you say teams/players can never win with.


Your response:

But see, this OTHER player didn't win with those traits (and actually said player on quite a bit, but still)


Which doesn't prove anything. You made an overbroad argument for a blanket impossibility. I showed that no such blanket impossibility exists. You then counter with but it didn't work this one time, which is no counter at all. I didn't argue that it worked everytime. I argued that it has in fact worked sometimes. Finding a case where it didn't work doesn't disprove my point in the least.


Your swagger is wasted by the weakness of the underlying basketball analysis. If you got the basketball more right, you wouldn't have to constantly work so hard to gussy up weak arguments with colorful and long winded rhetoric.


P.S. Attempts to use Boogie's career numbers again make me more than suspicious that you are just consistently dishonest with these arguments. You're not a moron. As a non-moron you are perfectly aware that Boogie's first three years were development years in the worst development environment possible, and have little to do with the effectiveness of the All NBA player that now leads the team. Its not even an argument, except to just be argumentative. Hence, its dishonest. Hence, your failings are conscious. I would have more patience for that if I actually did think you were stupid. As it is you are just willing to spin things to try to win an argument out of either malice or ego. Its not a good look, and not one I will ever let you get away with, so you should really consider stopping that.

You cannot legitimately contradict my assessment Barkley is better comp for Boogie than Duncan, so you go personal. Weak sauce.

Barkley was a power player with incredible agility for 250 pound player. Cousins is a power player with incredible agility for a 270 pound player.

Duncan does not fit this mold. He was finesse player and classic big.

But you don't want to explore this argument because it exposes the validity of your comparison as specious.

You also cannot look at the career stats for Duncan (TS% and ASST:TO), the whole enchilada instead of a few bites, and acknowledge they are in the ball park of my expectations of a high usage player of championship caliber, and concede Boogie has underperformed relative to this benchmark for a superstar. Period.

Further you cannot concede the game was different in 1999-2001 which also invalidates your comparison.

You also miss intangible variables (leadership, professionalism, accountability) in the context of Boogie's meddling efficiency. They are not there.

If Boogie was the Greatest Teammate in The World, and logged 53% TS and 0.8 assist to turnover with sporadic defensive effort, but in the process inspiring those around him with synergistic spirit, we might have something.

But he's done the opposite. He's been sour, moody and often insufferable, dragging down many around him, an undeniable fact you overlook because it belies your narrative.

I would be remiss to point out I retain optimism regarding Cousins and this opinion of mine must have you twisting in the wind.

I think Boogie is primed for his best year ever, based on superior fitness and high post offense, two drums I have been beating for a while.

When benchmarks I have referenced are met, I promise there will be a correlation between his individual improvement and our win total. When and if Boogie becomes the player I know he can be, my position will be justified further.

This what you and fans need to know: our team only becomes good (legitimate) when Boogie performs better (less variance between good and bad games, less turnovers, less bad and forced shots, less ball dominance).

You contend he does not need to become better for us to win. False and egregiously inaccurate. .

There are two most likely scenarios and you can mark my words on it: (1) More of the same. He will perform to historic efficiency and we will struggle, (2) he will take his game to the next level on both ends and we compete for a playoff spot. I am betting on the latter.

A third option is Boogie raises his game, to over 55% over 1.0 assist to turnover, steady defense, and we still struggle for Ws, but I'd put these odds less than 10%.

Regardless you are on shaky ground, so you assign excessive blame to previous coaches, grasp at old-timers from different era with different playing style for lame comparison, resort to GIFs to put Boogie in the HOF before a whiff of a playoff run. Really?

Then to deflect from the weakness of this position you claim dishonesty? I am not anything if sincere in my perspective. I spew out so much content on this topic it would be hard to be so prolific if I was a liar!

Then you want to try to bully and say "I will never let you get away with that...", as if I do not have right to a differing opinion. Outrageous, hilarious and sad.

I think you may be sore after declaring definitively there is "no place for Ben in the rotation".

How is that assessment working out for you so far? Your degree of delusional certainty is only surpassed by the egg on your face.

/mic shatters :cool:

P.S. So now we are to excuse Boogie's performance his first three years, when he was fat and temperamental. When do we count his stats, please let me know? Do we excuse his month of December last year when he performed horribly and threw away our chance at a playoff run? I guess that wasn't his fault. It was the system and coach, right? The same system and coach that led to him scoring 105 points in consecutive games a few weeks later.

And when Boogie lost 30 pounds this summer after you declared doing so would negate his advantage as a punisher in the paint, where does this leave you? Kind of in awkward spot? The same awkwardness with the hiring of a coach you approve of who is intent on instituting a high post offense when you projected we would be getting back to smash mouth basketball.

Awkward!

Do you question the new coach and his plan to best utilize Boogie away from the hoop, or accept it though it is consistent with what Blob has been telling you for a year?

Tough quandary there, good luck sorting it out.
 
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this is getting funny, Blob argues when somebody puts better arguments than him supporting what he was stating in the first place.

That's an interesting interpretation.

To be clear, TWSlam07 took the initiative to provide data to support what I knew to be true. The change in rules related to allowable defensive contact and emphasis on three point shot have contributed to a fairly linear increase in TS% around the league over couple of decades. In my mind that was not a "hypothesis....I needed prove". Its a fact.
 
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