Mock draft 2026

hrdboild said:
Because the goal is not to score the most points, the goal is to win basketball games. And defense is half of the game. Dybantsa, Peterson, and Wilson/Boozer play three different positions so all of them looking decent doesn't put them on an even playing field. We also have to project what their role will be in a team defense and if we have any players we plan on keeping (Murray, Clifford, and Raynaud, for instance. Maybe Cardwell too) then how would each prospect compliment them as well?

Given their very different athletic profiles it could even be argued that Boozer and Wilson play different positions defensively. It matters that Wilson is a defensive anchor big because that is the one position that impacts a team defense the most. And it also matters that Wilson is considerably better than decent on defense. Maybe the right answer here is that you get your primary scorer and fill in around them with guys like Cardwell and Ellis -- defensive specialists. Or we could try that with Dybantsa and spend the next 12 years losing to the rival team that drafted Caleb Wilson and surrounded him with floor spacers and wing defenders.

I don't know the right answer, nobody does. I'm just trying to reason out all of the things a front office should be looking at when trying to make their determination of who the best player available is. It's not as simple as who scores the most or who looks the most athletic. It involves grappling with what you think contributes to wins in the NBA and then estimating based on all available data which prospect comes closest to achieving those criteria and how likely they are to continue improving. How rare and consequently expensive is their skillset compared to the rest? And is there an argument to be made for fit with the roster you are trying to build?
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This is wild how would that team score if Wilson is there go to guy? I’ve yet to see him creat in half court off the dribble let alone create for others

Name one team that’s built there team through defense as the number one goal? OKC is a defensive juggernaut and are still built around an offensive hub SGA, maybe Houston but they have baby Jokic
 
Joshyjosh31 said:
This is wild how would that team score if Wilson is there go to guy? I’ve yet to see him creat in half court off the dribble let alone create for others

Name one team that’s built there team through defense as the number one goal? OKC is a defensive juggernaut and are still built around an offensive hub SGA, maybe Houston but they have baby Jokic
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Well I suppose we are all familiar with the phrase "free throws win championships". Maybe we should be looking for the player who gets to the free throw line the most?
 
hrdboild said:
Well I suppose we are all familiar with the phrase "free throws win championships". Maybe we should be looking for the player who gets to the free throw line the most?
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Again name a single winning team to build with defensive players over an offensive hub?

I’m guessing you’re taking Chet over Luka
 
I think we should look at the guys we have a high chance of drafting. Given the Pacers sit in front of us, have Haliburton, don’t have Monte, Tankathon predicts them passing on Kingston Flemings for Braylon Mullins.

Our likelyhood of picks is
Kingston Flemings
Nate Arment
AJ Dybantsa
Caleb Wilson
Darren Peterson.
 
sactowndog said:
I think we should look at the guys we have a high chance of drafting. Given the Pacers sit in front of us, have Haliburton, don’t have Monte, Tankathon predicts them passing on Kingston Flemings for Braylon Mullins.

Our likelyhood of picks is
Kingston Flemings
Nate Arment
AJ Dybantsa
Caleb Wilson
Darren Peterson.
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Tankathon (most recent update 17 days old) has Peterson going #1 to Washington and Boozer going #2 to Indiana, with us taking AJ at #3.

Mullins is currently down at #9. There’s no way he’s a top three guy in this draft. Not sure where you’re seeing Mullins in front of Flemings (and AJ and Wilson and Peterson!)
 
Capt. Factorial said:
Tankathon (most recent update 17 days old) has Peterson going #1 to Washington and Boozer going #2 to Indiana, with us taking AJ at #3.

Mullins is currently down at #9. There’s no way he’s a top three guy in this draft. Not sure where you’re seeing Mullins in front of Flemings (and AJ and Wilson and Peterson!)
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Mullins going top three in this years draft would be worse than Bagley going top two in the Luka draft so I say the Pacers should do it! (No offense to Mullins who is a fine prospect, just not better than like ten other guys)
 
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Capt. Factorial said:
Tankathon (most recent update 17 days old) has Peterson going #1 to Washington and Boozer going #2 to Indiana, with us taking AJ at #3.

Mullins is currently down at #9. There’s no way he’s a top three guy in this draft. Not sure where you’re seeing Mullins in front of Flemings (and AJ and Wilson and Peterson!)
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I was doing it using the lottery simulator to show real outcomes. In the instance Mullins goes to Indy is when they draft 6 and we draft 7 with Washington, Indy and us not being in the top 4. In that case Washington takes Ament, Indy Mullens and us Flemings.
 
Tetsujin said:
Mullins going top three in this years draft would be worse than Bagley going top two in the Luka draft so I say the Pacers should do it! (No offense to Mullins who is a fine prospect, just not better than like ten other guys)
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Mullins isn’t going top 3. Capt misunderstood what I was saying. At 3 our pick could fall 1-7. Pacers could fall 1-6.

My post was the players mocked to us in the 1-7 range and my comment was if Indiana picks 6.
 
Tetsujin said:
I don’t know how you can look at Caleb’s footwork with the ball and not think that counts as a basketball skill
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What footwork? Everything was a running dunk at the rim execpt 1 spin move that was a travel. The first clip he has to switch to his right hand to dribble which is where the defender is. That wont fly at the next level.
 
Joshyjosh31 said:
I’m not worried about the numbers more the moves and how he looks he’s making nba moves which is also translating into elite numbers. If Lavine was putting up numbers and creating for others nobody would be that worried about his defense. But he goes missing and doesn’t even try on defense I don’t get why we should factor defense for our top option all the guys look to be decent there that’s all you need.
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Are you just going off of the highlight tapes or the actual games?

Carolina’s running a lot of their offense through Veesaar this season (another really good big who’s finally healthy after pretty much burning three years of eligibility in Arizona, probably worthy of a late first round pick) but Caleb’s show a lot more passing/hub ability than I thought he possessed at the start of the season. Perimeter shot isn’t particularly broken but he’s getting downhill so frequently that he hasn’t really had a real to show whether his shot has improved or not. Above all else, he’s getting to the rim at will against packed college paint spacing. Those lanes will be open and more at the NBA level. He’s picking up new offensive traits with pretty much every single game he plays and every single thing brought up about his intangibles suggests that he’s going to maximize those skills come hell or high water.

And all of this is without factoring in his defensive capabilities, where his wingspan and motor make him a legit five position defender.

I’m not even advocating taking him first overall or whatever (that’s probably still D-Pete imo) but if we’re talking about guys who embody the principles that Scott Perry and Doug Christie have been pushing since the summer, Caleb Wilson was practically built for the Kings.
 
So far I haven't been as impressed maybe as others with this draft. It wouldn't be heartbreaking to me if the Kings would accumulate a ton of picks in the middle first round and lower as opposed to say the 5th pick in the draft. The only guy interesting to me out of the top five or so is Brown. (I haven't seen Peterson because of the hammy).

Wilson looks like a long term project. Could he be good in five years? Sure. But he reminds me of other long term projects like Jonathan Isaac or Aaron Gordon. But Aaron Gordon is pretty damn good, you say? Sure, but look at the history of a Gordon. He's the fourth pick for Orlando where he spends years of development to the point where in his 6th year he scores 14.6 points, 6.6 rebounds and 4.2 assists in 29 minutes of action while shooting 37.5% from three-point range. Then he's traded. So do you want to be Orlando who drafts him or Denver who trades for him?

Boozer is very good for the college game and I think he should be a solidly good player in the NBA, but I see him as a guy who blends into his future NBA team rather than forcefully impacts the game. I think the criticism of him having trouble with size is fair. He's not going to out-quick guys or outmaneuver them with above average dribbling like Banchero, so he's left with strength as his major asset, and there are going to be a ton of strong and long guys he's going to be facing in the NBA.

Brown could make an immediate impact. He's got the instincts for the game, the vision, the athleticism, the size. His 3 point shooting is erratic. His defense is going to need work in the NBA, but he has the DNA to be a good defensive player. If the kid has a work ethic, I'd go for him. His domination of Kentucky was truly impressive.
 
M
Tetsujin said:
Are you just going off of the highlight tapes or the actual games?

Carolina’s running a lot of their offense through Veesaar this season (another really good big who’s finally healthy after pretty much burning three years of eligibility in Arizona, probably worthy of a late first round pick) but Caleb’s show a lot more passing/hub ability than I thought he possessed at the start of the season. Perimeter shot isn’t particularly broken but he’s getting downhill so frequently that he hasn’t really had a real to show whether his shot has improved or not. Above all else, he’s getting to the rim at will against packed college paint spacing. Those lanes will be open and more at the NBA level. He’s picking up new offensive traits with pretty much every single game he plays and every single thing brought up about his intangibles suggests that he’s going to maximize those skills come hell or high water.

And all of this is without factoring in his defensive capabilities, where his wingspan and motor make him a legit five position defender.

I’m not even advocating taking him first overall or whatever (that’s probably still D-Pete imo) but if we’re talking about guys who embody the principles that Scott Perry and Doug Christie have been pushing since the summer, Caleb Wilson was practically built for the Kings.
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I watched a full game early in the season he’s a good prospect but AJ and Peterson are levels above him I honestly could careless about defense (unless he’s Wemby level) when you’re not don’t have a first, second, or third creator on the team. I’d take Wilson fourth not higher.


Kingster said:
So far I haven't been as impressed maybe as others with this draft. It wouldn't be heartbreaking to me if the Kings would accumulate a ton of picks in the middle first round and lower as opposed to say the 5th pick in the draft. The only guy interesting to me out of the top five or so is Brown. (I haven't seen Peterson because of the hammy).

Wilson looks like a long term project. Could he be good in five years? Sure. But he reminds me of other long term projects like Jonathan Isaac or Aaron Gordon. But Aaron Gordon is pretty damn good, you say? Sure, but look at the history of a Gordon. He's the fourth pick for Orlando where he spends years of development to the point where in his 6th year he scores 14.6 points, 6.6 rebounds and 4.2 assists in 29 minutes of action while shooting 37.5% from three-point range. Then he's traded. So do you want to be Orlando who drafts him or Denver who trades for him?

Boozer is very good for the college game and I think he should be a solidly good player in the NBA, but I see him as a guy who blends into his future NBA team rather than forcefully impacts the game. I think the criticism of him having trouble with size is fair. He's not going to out-quick guys or outmaneuver them with above average dribbling like Banchero, so he's left with strength as his major asset, and there are going to be a ton of strong and long guys he's going to be facing in the NBA.

Brown could make an immediate impact. He's got the instincts for the game, the vision, the athleticism, the size. His 3 point shooting is erratic. His defense is going to need work in the NBA, but he has the DNA to be a good defensive player. If the kid has a work ethic, I'd go for him. His domination of Kentucky was truly impressive.
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This isn’t the nfl
 
Joshyjosh31 said:
M


I watched a full game early in the season he’s a good prospect but AJ and Peterson are levels above him I honestly could careless about defense (unless he’s Wemby level) when you’re not don’t have a first, second, or third creator on the team. I’d take Wilson fourth not higher.




This isn’t the nfl
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Dugh
 
just for craps and giggles I did 100 lottery simulations from Tankathon and they had us drafting.

Fleming 25%
Dybantsa 22%
Peterson 19%
Ament 15%
Wilson 11%
Boozer 4%
Brown 4%

Assumptions under this scenario. We take Peterson, Dybantsa and then Boozer. We take Fleming over Brown, Wilson goes 4 and Ament 5 in all cases. Indiana being 1 got them Ament and Fleming to Washington in the 4% we took Brown.
 
ESP47 said:
I read Wilson is only converting on 38% of his layup attempts. That's pretty concerning. Shows a real lack of touch around the rim.
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Where did you read this? I can't find anything referencing this apart from an old report that referred to a specific period of his HS career. It seems highly unlikely to me that it's accurate.
 
Dime Dropper said:
Where did you read this? I can't find anything referencing this apart from an old report that referred to a specific period of his HS career. It seems highly unlikely to me that it's accurate.
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He currently leads the nation in dunks, though it's worth noting he's converting just 38.0 percent of his layups, an oddly low number that highlights lack of feel going up in traffic.

Any way to verify if this is true or not? I certainly hope it's not accurate because most of his college dunks will require finishing around the rim in the NBA.
 
With Caleb most certainly a question of whether he can do that at the next level exist. I mean, he's a classic example of that. That said, the Kings still better come out with one of those top 4 guys at this point. There looks to be a steep drop off after that in terms of physical potential and production potential. Jayden Quaintance is the question mark. He has all the tools but he's a bit of mystery. Unless some of the other players make a jump top 4 or not is the difference between being able to come out of draft night with real hope or the feeling that they just added "another piece". Another piece makes Perry's job moving forward a lot tougher.
 
The real knock on Caleb is that he's not going to be a primary offensive option/on-ball player. And his jumper outside 15 feet is pretty shaky. So be it. That said it's not like UNC is running their offense through him, either, and he's still putting up about 20 points a game.

What you get with Wilson is a 6'10" uber-athlete who plays with energy and has a nose for every single rebound and loose ball, who plays great defense (sitting at 3 stocks/game) and can switch 1-5, has probably the best hands I've ever seen, and repeatedly makes ridiculous plays. He has a good handle and can bring the ball up the court, he's a very good passer, and he's unselfish and by no means a black-hole when he gets the ball. Yes, he dunks a lot, but he affects the game in so many ways that aren't dunks.

Right now I can't see any reason he should fall below #4, and by the end of season there's a pathway for him to be either #1 or #2, period. Not there yet, but there's a pathway.
 
Tetsujin said:
Your nightly “Caleb Wilson is possibly the bounciest athlete on the planet” highlight

https://twitter.com/x/status/2006177569058550092
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Watching this game right now - this is at best the fifth-best sixth-best play he has made in the game. It's probably the best dunk (though there was an even more audacious attempt that he got fouled on) but he does so much out there...

5) Gets tough contested rebound and immediately turns to find the streaker on the break for a foul
4) Tracks down a booted ball in the corner that maybe two humans could have grabbed, and falling out of bounds finds a teammate for the save
3) Gets a late shot clock grenade and turns and buries a 15-foot turnaround J
2) Covers about 15 feet of court to grab an offensive rebound from between two Seminoles and immediately turns and finds Veesaar under the rim for an and-1
1) Chase down block on a drive, comes down with the loose ball, immediately turns and finds the streaker (in traffic) for a layup - like at most three seconds came off the clock between the time the driver shot the ball and the Tar Heel teammate had the ball ahead of the field.

I love, love, love Caleb Wilson
 
Capt. Factorial said:
The real knock on Caleb is that he's not going to be a primary offensive option/on-ball player. And his jumper outside 15 feet is pretty shaky. So be it. That said it's not like UNC is running their offense through him, either, and he's still putting up about 20 points a game.

What you get with Wilson is a 6'10" uber-athlete who plays with energy and has a nose for every single rebound and loose ball, who plays great defense (sitting at 3 stocks/game) and can switch 1-5, has probably the best hands I've ever seen, and repeatedly makes ridiculous plays. He has a good handle and can bring the ball up the court, he's a very good passer, and he's unselfish and by no means a black-hole when he gets the ball. Yes, he dunks a lot, but he affects the game in so many ways that aren't dunks.

Right now I can't see any reason he should fall below #4, and by the end of season there's a pathway for him to be either #1 or #2, period. Not there yet, but there's a pathway.
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Yeah, this is pretty much my only real hesitation with Caleb. Add in the fact that the other top 3 guys very much project as primary offensive weapons, you got to be VERY sure Caleb is a transformative defensive talent because I just don't see the same level of creation with him as I do the other 3.

But like you said, maybe it doesn't really matter that much if *despite* that he's putting up 20 a game on 61% TS. That's perfectly fine if he's KG 2.0 on defense.
 
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