Marvin Bagley III

[BigVirg]

From an article i just read.

"This draft," one Western Conference assistant GM said, "is going to change the way the way the game is played over the next 8 to 10 years, because the way to beat teams that play small ball and switch everything is to have skilled big guys. And that's what this draft is full of."

 

[beb0p]

Of course from all the projected top 6 guys we'll draft a player with the least positional value and whose play style is the least valuable in todays league.

I honestly don't think 6'-11" athletic freak with skill and high motor will ever go out of style in the NBA.

 

[ParniValjak]

From an article i just read.

"This draft," one Western Conference assistant GM said, "is going to change the way the way the game is played over the next 8 to 10 years, because the way to beat teams that play small ball and switch everything is to have skilled big guys. And that's what this draft is full of."

It’s what I have been saying for years. Current style is only a trend. Its a cyclical thing. There is more than one way to win. For a while now there has been real depth in elite perimeter talent so it’s only natural that the game trends in that direction.

This draft has a lot of quality bigs so it’s natural that in a few years time, if they work out as well as they should, you will get a new trend centered around versatile big men.

I have always said we should build a team our way. Don’t be a follower, be a leader.

 

[BigVirg]

It’s what I have been saying for years. Current style is only a trend. Its a cyclical thing. There is more than one way to win. For a while now there has been real depth in elite perimeter talent so it’s only natural that the game trends in that direction.

This draft has a lot of quality bigs so it’s natural that in a few years time, if they work out as well as they should, you will get a new trend centered around versatile big men.

I have always said we should build a team our way. Don’t be a follower, be a leader.

Love it, I'm with you 100%. We can find shooters through FA.

 

[Hoovtrain]

Bagley or Joerger?

DJ

 

[tyguy]

It’s what I have been saying for years. Current style is only a trend. Its a cyclical thing. There is more than one way to win. For a while now there has been real depth in elite perimeter talent so it’s only natural that the game trends in that direction.

This draft has a lot of quality bigs so it’s natural that in a few years time, if they work out as well as they should, you will get a new trend centered around versatile big men.

I have always said we should build a team our way. Don’t be a follower, be a leader.

Actually, we have historical data that tells us that Guards and Wings are the best offensive players. Teams just didn't know it for the longest time.

 

[BigVirg]

I think the data you mean is the 3pt shot. Guards and Wings tend to shoot more of then hence the reason they are "the best offensive players" but big men have evolved as well. AD, Jokic Boogie, KAT, Porzingis and Embiid all shoot the 3 well. And I'll bet you all of them besides boogie would have GM's drooling at the opportunity to get them on their franchise.

 

[ESP47]

I've already shown historical numbers here that backed up my opinion that drafting a big man with a high pick that has shown no defensive accumen is an extremely poor choice. Given the opportunity you should always take the pottential elite offensive player which is almost assuredly never a big man going back 30 + years.

I agree with the numbers you posted previously but I'm not going to pick a guy that I almost assuredly think will be a bust just to avoid a big man.

That's why I'm just like either take Doncic or trade back if it's worthwhile.

 

[Gguod]

I honestly don't think 6'-11" athletic freak with skill and high motor will ever go out of style in the NBA.

But 6-11 athletic freak wont contribute too much to winning if he lacks defensive instincts and rim protecting ability. If we have a #2 pick, im not going to be satisfied for a guy that can put up empty stats on a losing team. I want players that are able to contribute on a winning team

 

[jcwkings]

Im starting to be at ease if Bagley is pick, i still think Doncic is the better prospect and could impact the game more but doesnt mean Bagley isnt a hell of a prospect in his own right. Porter Jr is the one i just cannot accept. SO MANY red flags and his tape is nowhere near as impressive as Doncic or even Bagley. Please do not touch that guy with a ten foot pole.

 

[jcwkings]

But 6-11 athletic freak wont contribute too much to winning if he lacks defensive instincts and rim protecting ability. If we have a #2 pick, im not going to be satisfied for a guy that can put up empty stats on a losing team. I want players that are able to contribute on a winning team

Im not worrying too much about his defense. You have to remember that these AAU guys are not asked to defend in that glorified pick up ball culture. Duke was his only year where he has gotten proper coaching. He has the tools theoretically to develop into a guy who can switch 1-5, and thats what you are hoping for if you draft him.

 

[Kingster]

All aboard the Bagley train!!!! Him and Giles are the new breed of big men and will wreak havoc on the league. Trade a big(WCS), sign a wing, and i feel confident this team will make a 10-12 game jump in the win column. Now lets see if Joerger can pick up the pace with this young athletic team.

It deserves 4 "likes." I highlighted every one of them!

 

[Kingster]

To be fair they liked everybody. Doncic was dammed with faint praise.

I would say, to be perfectly fair, that they didn't like Bagley, they loved Bagley.

 

[tyguy]

I think the data you mean is the 3pt shot. Guards and Wings tend to shoot more of then hence the reason they are "the best offensive players" but big men have evolved as well. AD, Jokic Boogie, KAT, Porzingis and Embiid all shoot the 3 well. And I'll bet you all of them besides boogie would have GM's drooling at the opportunity to get them on their franchise.

No, it's because big men historically can't both create offense for themselves or others. Jokic ranks high for a big man because he can create offense for others, but is mostly limited to creating his own offense in the post which is historically inefficient.

 

[Blob]

Boom, baby! Been saying this all along. Trust the Prophecy Trust the Blob When the Kings take Bagley and Vlade is asked why was this decision made his answer will be partly how much they like what they have in Fox and Boggy. This is the variable national press and many fans overlook. The playmaking, Lukas best attribute, is handled by our two "cornerstones". We don't need this conflict with a bunch of creators and not enough capable finishers. It is disputable how much better if at all Luka is running pick and roll (Boggy) and breaking down his man (Fox). If the Kings did not believe in Fox and Boggy, then maybe you take Luka and turn the team over to him. That is NOT justified. If you watched most of the games last season you know this as well as any self-proclaimed expert. Accordingly you should have the confidence our front office will come to this conclusion. Of course Luka is going to be a good player. But it won't be with the Kings.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1008804104968331265

 

[John Galt]

Boom, baby! Been saying this all along. Trust the Prophecy Trust the Blob When the Kings take Bagley and Vlade is asked why was this decision made his answer will be partly how much they like what they have in Fox and Boggy. This is the variable national press and many fans overlook. The playmaking, Lukas best attribute, is handled by our two "cornerstones". We don't need this conflict with a bunch of creators and not enough capable finishers. It is disputable how much better if at all Luka is running pick and roll (Boggy) and breaking down his man (Fox). If the Kings did not believe in Fox and Boggy, then maybe you take Luka and turn the team over to him. That is NOT justified. If you watched most of the games last season you know this as well as any self-proclaimed expert. Accordingly you should have the confidence our front office will come to this conclusion. Of course Luka is going to be a good player. But it won't be with the Kings.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1008804104968331265

Bogi .... never seen him called Boggy except by you

 

[BeerNerd916]

Bogi .... never seen him called Boggy except by you

Actually Bogie but...semantics

 

[jcwkings]

Boom, baby! Been saying this all along. Trust the Prophecy Trust the Blob When the Kings take Bagley and Vlade is asked why was this decision made his answer will be partly how much they like what they have in Fox and Boggy. This is the variable national press and many fans overlook. The playmaking, Lukas best attribute, is handled by our two "cornerstones". We don't need this conflict with a bunch of creators and not enough capable finishers. It is disputable how much better if at all Luka is running pick and roll (Boggy) and breaking down his man (Fox). If the Kings did not believe in Fox and Boggy, then maybe you take Luka and turn the team over to him. That is NOT justified. If you watched most of the games last season you know this as well as any self-proclaimed expert. Accordingly you should have the confidence our front office will come to this conclusion. Of course Luka is going to be a good player. But it won't be with the Kings.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1008804104968331265

Who the hell is Eddie Sefko? and how does he of all people have insight into the Kings FO?

 

[Gguod]

No, it's because big men historically can't both create offense for themselves or others. Jokic ranks high for a big man because he can create offense for others, but is mostly limited to creating his own offense in the post which is historically inefficient.

I cant believe this isnt getting any attention in here. The actual numbers didnt get any attention and every time its brought up its ignored. If there are two options for the #2 pick: Doncic and Bagley, then it should be an outrage if the pick isnt Doncic. The amount of people here saying they are fine with Bagley is just mind boggling. Especially when apparently picking Porter would cause chaos.

 

[ockingsfan]

From an article i just read.

"This draft," one Western Conference assistant GM said, "is going to change the way the way the game is played over the next 8 to 10 years, because the way to beat teams that play small ball and switch everything is to have skilled big guys. And that's what this draft is full of."

I don't agree with this GM's take. There are plenty of skilled "unicorn" big men in the league now, Anthony Davis, DMC, Porzingis, KAT, Gobert. These guys are as good or better than any of the bigs coming out this year and they can barely get out of the first round in the playoffs.

The way the rules are and the way refs calls games now, do not favor big guys, unless they can shoot the 3s like Steph Curry or KD. Big men that used to use their size and strength to get to where they want are now being called for fouls. You can barely body up to your opponent without being called for a foul. Things that Shaq used to get away with would be fouled out of every game now.

Besides the refs, it's simple math. With the perimeter player becoming more skilled and accurate in the 3 point shooting, the math is just not there to keep going down low for higher percentage 2 point shots anymore. For instance, if your team take 50 shots in a game and make 50% (which is good clip) of your 2 pointers, that's 50 points. But if your team takes 50 3 point shots and even if you make a mediocre 35%, that is 52.5 points. And the team with the most points win.

I think the GSW figured this out before everyone else and have perfected it and everyone else is playing catch up. Even after GSW become older and irrevelent, another team will just take their place, because math doesn't change. The rules and the math just adds up to perimeter players dominating the NBA, unless you get a big man that can shoot the 3 point shot like KD and Steph.

 

[roasthawg]

I cant believe this isnt getting any attention in here. The actual numbers didnt get any attention and bringing this up also gets ignored. If there are two options for the #2 pick: Doncic and Bagley, then it should be an outrage if the pick isnt Doncic. The amount of people here saying they are fine with Bagley is just mind boggling.

Lol, this is what I'm talking about with the over the top Doncic love fest. So much worse than Rubio at this point and I'm definitely predicting a similar outcome (Kings pass, player doesn't turn out to be all that). Bagley was the consensus #1 overall hs recruit in a loaded class. He had an outstanding freshman season. He wants to come to sac. That's a lot of boxes checked there, it's far from an "outrage" if he's the pick.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

Who the hell is Eddie Sefko? and how does he of all people have insight into the Kings FO?

That is a good question. He appears to be associated with Dallas media. I'm sure he's heard something, but that's no indication it's true. Remember that another just-as-random Twitter source has heard that we have decided on Doncic. Grant Napear (less random, I guess) said it was 99.9% Porter. Nobody knows. None of these people know. I don't know. You don't know. We all don't know.

 

[Gguod]

Lol, this is what I'm talking about with the over the top Doncic love fest. So much worse than Rubio at this point and I'm definitely predicting a similar outcome (Kings pass, player doesn't turn out to be all that). Bagley was the consensus #1 overall hs recruit in a loaded class. He had an outstanding freshman season. He wants to come to sac. That's a lot of boxes checked there, it's far from an "outrage" if he's the pick.

Its an outrage if instead of checking boxes you stop to think about how the game is played today, how valuable each position is, how valuable different skill sets are for different positions, what skill set brings something that gives you a big value over replacement ect. If anyone says its an outrage if we take Porter, its also an outrage if we skip on Doncic for Bagley. Doncic plays the position that is the most valuable, Bagley plays the position that is the least valuable. Doncic has the most valuable skillset (creating for himself and others), Bagley has a lot less valuable skill set. Doncic gives you a huge value over replacement, Bagley not that much.

For example, even if and when Bagley puts a lot better box score numbers than JJJ, JJJ will allmost guaranteed have a better rpm and will contribute more to winning.

 

[BigVirg]

Opinions have been set o I'm not going to try to sway the non believers. IMO Giles and Bagley can be playmakers in the nba will show tremendous upside in their first year. We have shooting in Bogie and Buddy and we will add more in FA

 

[roasthawg]

Its an outrage if instead of checking boxes you stop to think about how the game is played today, how valuable each position is, how valuable different skill sets are for different positions, what skill set brings something that gives you a big value over replacement ect. If anyone says its an outrage if we take Porter, its also an outrage if we skip on Doncic for Bagley. Doncic plays the position that is the most valuable, Bagley plays the position that is the least valuable. Doncic has the most valuable skillset (creating for himself and others), Bagley has a lot less valuable skill set. Doncic gives you a huge value over replacement, Bagley not that much.

For example, even if and when Bagley puts a lot better box score numbers than JJJ, JJJ will allmost guaranteed have a better rpm and will contribute more to winning.

Dude, you're missing such a huge part of the equation though... How good of an NBA player will each guy be? Positional value only comes into play if the talent level is close. If it's Bagley equals Amare Stoudemire and Luka equals LeBron James then yeah, it's a no brainer. Problem is Doncic will never be lebron. He might be Gordon Hayward level though. Bagley actually has a good shot at being Amare level. I think the original post dealt with win shares? Amare peaked out at over 14ws while Haywards best has been 10. Hayward plays the more valuable position and the more valuable brand of basketball but Amare was a better player. Get the best player... This isn't the NFL draft where a QB trumps everything.

 

[Bosnian Diehard]

Bleacher Report says we prefer Bagley over Dončić.

 

[tyguy]

I cant believe this isnt getting any attention in here. The actual numbers didnt get any attention and every time its brought up its ignored. If there are two options for the #2 pick: Doncic and Bagley, then it should be an outrage if the pick isnt Doncic. The amount of people here saying they are fine with Bagley is just mind boggling. Especially when apparently picking Porter would cause chaos.

There is no guarantee that Doncic turns out to be a star, but what we do know is he has shown the abilit to create for others and himself as a teenager playing in the second best league in the world at 6'8". I roll the dice on him over a scoring big man that doesn't defend 100 times out of 100 because the math says Doncic has a higher probability of becoming an elite high impact player.

 

[dude12]

I'm starting to see a lot of noise that Bagley is the pick. Get ready for the second coming of Shawn Marion.

 

[Gguod]

Dude, you're missing such a huge part of the equation though... How good of an NBA player will each guy be? Positional value only comes into play if the talent level is close. If it's Bagley equals Amare Stoudemire and Luka equals LeBron James then yeah, it's a no brainer. Problem is Doncic will never be lebron. He might be Gordon Hayward level though. Bagley actually has a good shot at being Amare level. I think the original post dealt with win shares? Amare peaked out at over 14ws while Haywards best has been 10. Hayward plays the more valuable position and the more valuable brand of basketball but Amare was a better player. Get the best player... This isn't the NFL draft where a QB trumps everything.

In his whole career, Stoudamire was top 25 on rpm (real plus minus) only once. Excactly my point.

There is no guarantee that Doncic turns out to be a star, but what we do know is he has shown the abilit to create for others and himself as a teenager playing in the second best league in the world at 6'8". I roll the dice on him over a scoring big man that doesn't defend 100 times out of 100 because the math says Doncic has a higher probability of becoming an elite high impact player.

Yeah imo this draft on the very top isnt as good as I would like. Doncic isnt one of those guaranteed superstar #1 picks but as you said, easily the best choise in this draft.

 

[BigVirg]

Shawn Marion... haven't heard that one but I'll take it!