Ha-ha. I guess you have a point there. I was thinking in relative terms. I think Koufos did an excellent job on the boards last year relative to his skill level. He got the most out of his ability. Boogie has done a very good job on the defensive glass over his career. But I don't think he has maximized his potential due to conditioning and effort.
Marvin Bagley III
- Thread starter jcassio
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This jumped out at me. The only similarity between the two is that they are both around 6'8 and theyre both from Europe. Hezonja is a very athletic off-ball shooter/finisher, Doncic is an all around ball handler/shooter/passer. Like Bogdon, Doncic is also a playmaker (although superior). Hezonja is not a playmaker.
Two totally different players in totally different circumstances. Hezonja was just another talented youngster on his team who IMHO went to the NBA too early. Could have done with another couple of years of seasoning in Europe.
Doncic has been THE leader of his team. This year they went as far as he would take them which is all the way to Euroleague title. That's not to say that there were no other good players on that team but Luka was their leader, their man and they went where he took them. There is nothing lazy about Doncic.
Doncic has been THE leader of his team. This year they went as far as he would take them which is all the way to Euroleague title. That's not to say that there were no other good players on that team but Luka was their leader, their man and they went where he took them. There is nothing lazy about Doncic.
It's a good analysis. Just like Bagley has been somewhat odd in his lack of defensive prowess, Jackson is a little odd in his mediocre rebounding. I'd really have see more film of him to evaluate that aspect of his game. (Maybe he's going after blocks at the expense of rebounds?) I agree that shot blocking can be overrated, but Jackson's shot blocking is not the result of just length and jumping ability, but his ability to anticipate and glide out on the floor. He makes up ground in hurry on offensive players on the perimeter. I haven't seen that from a big guy in long long while. His fluidity is something else for a big man and I think that translates eventually to something very good on the offensive end.
At the end of the day, I probably end up where I began - Bagley. The main reason is that he's probably the lowest risk All Star that I see on the board. (That includes Ayton). He's the no-brainer, especially on offense.
At the end of the day, I probably end up where I began - Bagley. The main reason is that he's probably the lowest risk All Star that I see on the board. (That includes Ayton). He's the no-brainer, especially on offense.
Bagley was #2 for me (after Ayton) the night of the lottery. I haven't seen enough compelling evidence since then to come off of this. I liken Bagley to Fox in regards to appeal as prospect. Fox was pretty much can't miss with superior athleticism and solid fundamentals. Shaky jumper but signs he could develop. Good head on his shoulders. Good work ethic. Highly competitive (see tourney vs Ball). Lean build means he is not going to bully guys but despite his physique not afraid of contact. Bagley is in this same mold. So I suspect if you are happy with Fox and what you have seen, you are likely to be happy with Bagley and what he will bring. And you like what they can become individually and synergistically.
I wish Bagley was longer and played more with his right hand. But if this was the case we would not be having these debates! If he had a 7'4 wingspan and was ambidextrous he would be challenging Ayton for #1. Regardless I think because Bagley makes a lot of plays look easy, you may tend to discount what he gets done. A 32 PER is nothing to sneeze out. That's an epic number and productivity per minute . Bagley has the physique that will carry another 10-20 pounds of muscle without slowing him down. Then you are talking about a guy with strength and quickness to make plays all over the floor. The fundamentals and instincts and competitiveness are there. There's not much not to like!
The degree of upside for Bamba and Doncic is comparable if all goes as well as can be expected. But I am more comfortable with the foundation on which Bagley is starting his pro career. He is the safer pick in this regard. When you have a spotty draft history to be kind (Papa G, Malachi, G-Leaguer Jackson) a safe pick holds additional appeal. There is no questioning his athletic ceiling (Doncic) health (Porter) or ability to keep pace in the modern NBA (Bamba) with Bagley. I hope this is our front offices relative thought process but I have no idea what they are thinking for better or worse.
I wish Bagley was longer and played more with his right hand. But if this was the case we would not be having these debates! If he had a 7'4 wingspan and was ambidextrous he would be challenging Ayton for #1. Regardless I think because Bagley makes a lot of plays look easy, you may tend to discount what he gets done. A 32 PER is nothing to sneeze out. That's an epic number and productivity per minute . Bagley has the physique that will carry another 10-20 pounds of muscle without slowing him down. Then you are talking about a guy with strength and quickness to make plays all over the floor. The fundamentals and instincts and competitiveness are there. There's not much not to like!
The degree of upside for Bamba and Doncic is comparable if all goes as well as can be expected. But I am more comfortable with the foundation on which Bagley is starting his pro career. He is the safer pick in this regard. When you have a spotty draft history to be kind (Papa G, Malachi, G-Leaguer Jackson) a safe pick holds additional appeal. There is no questioning his athletic ceiling (Doncic) health (Porter) or ability to keep pace in the modern NBA (Bamba) with Bagley. I hope this is our front offices relative thought process but I have no idea what they are thinking for better or worse.
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To me this is actually the biggest concern with Bagley. He's my pick for #2 as it stands now but I'm definitely questioning his fit in the modern NBA. If you meant "ability to keep pace" as flexibility offensively, motor to run the floor, and the ability to guard smaller players on a switch then I would agree with you.
But in the macro sense, I am concerned that Bagley is an old school PF in a league that is increasingly going away from the traditional PF and C lineups in favor of a ballhandler, three wings, and a big. I don't see Bagley ever thriving as the lone big in that setup so the question I have is if he's skilled enough to play as a pseudo wing. As a stretch/playmaking 4 who adds tremendous rebounding ability. If so, then he could be a key piece. But unless Giles really pans out or WCS finally realizes that hitting the boards and defending every night is what will get him paid it still leaves the Kings without a center and without a small forward.
As for why I don't see Bagley as the lone big it's partly his lack of rim protection/lack of length but largely his defensive issues in general. I think Bagley can learn to be a good individual defender (he's a ways off now) because he has the lateral quickness to slide and stay with most players, but his awareness on defense in terms of rotations, defending in space, ability to hold position in the post, communicating with his teammates are pretty poor right now.
To me that's what I want to feel more confident about with Bagley. Can he be a guy that is out there at the end of games with Fox, Hield, Bogie, and another wing as the lone big man without the team getting killed defensively?
But in the macro sense, I am concerned that Bagley is an old school PF in a league that is increasingly going away from the traditional PF and C lineups in favor of a ballhandler, three wings, and a big. I don't see Bagley ever thriving as the lone big in that setup so the question I have is if he's skilled enough to play as a pseudo wing. As a stretch/playmaking 4 who adds tremendous rebounding ability. If so, then he could be a key piece. But unless Giles really pans out or WCS finally realizes that hitting the boards and defending every night is what will get him paid it still leaves the Kings without a center and without a small forward.
As for why I don't see Bagley as the lone big it's partly his lack of rim protection/lack of length but largely his defensive issues in general. I think Bagley can learn to be a good individual defender (he's a ways off now) because he has the lateral quickness to slide and stay with most players, but his awareness on defense in terms of rotations, defending in space, ability to hold position in the post, communicating with his teammates are pretty poor right now.
To me that's what I want to feel more confident about with Bagley. Can he be a guy that is out there at the end of games with Fox, Hield, Bogie, and another wing as the lone big man without the team getting killed defensively?
Regarding #1, I don't see that guy at all. We'll have to see what happens with him in the NBA and how it plays out. I think Bagley is going to do very well at the perimeter, as well as inside. I don't think Duke showed it all that much, but I saw enough that made me believe he's going to be a legit threat from the outside. I'm confident in his ability to be that stretch 4 you mentioned above (#2).
With Ayton, however, I have more reservations. His work will be done predominantly inside. In that sense, I see him as an old school" center and not the perfect fit for today's NBA How many centers in today's NBA even want to be a banging inside presence? Given Ayton's apathy at times in college, I wonder what his attitude is going to be when he gets pounded in the low post on an every-game basis. Is he really ready to bang 82 games a year as a prototypical 70s center used to do? And how many teams are willing and able to patiently feed the big man on offense for a 2 pointer that almost never gives you an "and one!" in today's NBA? He'll get his two points inside for the price of getting pounded, while the other team goes down the floor and gets 3, and with a brush foul gets 4!
With Ayton, however, I have more reservations. His work will be done predominantly inside. In that sense, I see him as an old school" center and not the perfect fit for today's NBA How many centers in today's NBA even want to be a banging inside presence? Given Ayton's apathy at times in college, I wonder what his attitude is going to be when he gets pounded in the low post on an every-game basis. Is he really ready to bang 82 games a year as a prototypical 70s center used to do? And how many teams are willing and able to patiently feed the big man on offense for a 2 pointer that almost never gives you an "and one!" in today's NBA? He'll get his two points inside for the price of getting pounded, while the other team goes down the floor and gets 3, and with a brush foul gets 4!
Bagley right now is my distant 3rd choice, way behind Doncic and Ayton.
My concern about Bagley is his outside and mid range game. Almost all of his highlights are dunks or put backs. Not many step backs or elbow jumpers and the occasional 3 pointer. That concerns me because I'm not sure he will be able to space the floor in the NBA.
I do love his motor and athleticism, but my concern is how he fits in the modern NBA.
My concern about Bagley is his outside and mid range game. Almost all of his highlights are dunks or put backs. Not many step backs or elbow jumpers and the occasional 3 pointer. That concerns me because I'm not sure he will be able to space the floor in the NBA.
I do love his motor and athleticism, but my concern is how he fits in the modern NBA.
As you know Bagley is an explosive player. He's fast twitch with superior agility and balance. Off the top of my head I am trying to think of front line guys faster than him changing ends. AD comes to mind. Ginanis comes to mind. Thats about it. Capella is pretty fast too. Randle runs well but Bagley probably has better leg speed and burst. So in my mind the question becomes not how is this kid going to handle the "modern NBA" but how is the modern NBA going to handle him?!
I think Bagley is 1-2 strides faster than Willie or Skal changing ends. And he runs constantly. What will happen is he will rim run with Fox or even ahead of him. If he does not get the pass he will collapse the D into the paint and leave wings or trailer open for catch and shoot or drive to hole. We will get early offense going just off his transition speed. I like this aspect of his game to put constant pressure on the D and increase our league worst pace.
He's also a perfect running mate for De'Aaron. Just on this aspect alone, I think you have to be almost sold. De'Aaron needs guys who can play his pace, play smart and finish plays.
Now instead of thinking in terms of whether Bagley can anchor a group in the middle with three wings and a PG or if he needs another big out there, I like to think in terms of adding impact players and letting them sort it out, forcing the opponent to adjust to us. For example, even if we add Bagley, I would not be opposed to adding Randle who would provide the most impact as free agent signee, even though others may think their respective skills overlap. (Yes I would rather have Randle than Gordon simply because he's a more impactful player.)
I would also not discount the idea of Bagley spending time as three (with Giles at center and space creating 4). He would punish wing defenders in the post. I think he has the versatility and agility to defend the perimeter and play effective team defense. We could exploit his high activity level this way.
I would exclude Willie from any prospective lineups. The glorious thing about our lotto luck and overcoming 90% odds and with this draft being loaded with bigs is we can draft Willie's replacement, subsequently package him in a trade, thus clearing playing time for Skal, Giles, Bagley (Ayton) or other free agent or trade targets. It would be fair to worry a frontline of Willie and Bagley would NOT solve our defensive issues. But we don't need to worry. His potential effectiveness next to Bagley or whomever is not relevant when every effort is made to find Willie a new home.
Now maybe the trade market is lukewarm or nonexistent for Willie. So be it. But the idea of building around Willie is a flawed premise. We have a three player core (Buddy, Boggy, Fox) and a bunch of guys trying to figure it out. I wouldn't let the plusses and minuses of WCS game affect who I take on June 21.
I think Bagley is 1-2 strides faster than Willie or Skal changing ends. And he runs constantly. What will happen is he will rim run with Fox or even ahead of him. If he does not get the pass he will collapse the D into the paint and leave wings or trailer open for catch and shoot or drive to hole. We will get early offense going just off his transition speed. I like this aspect of his game to put constant pressure on the D and increase our league worst pace.
He's also a perfect running mate for De'Aaron. Just on this aspect alone, I think you have to be almost sold. De'Aaron needs guys who can play his pace, play smart and finish plays.
Now instead of thinking in terms of whether Bagley can anchor a group in the middle with three wings and a PG or if he needs another big out there, I like to think in terms of adding impact players and letting them sort it out, forcing the opponent to adjust to us. For example, even if we add Bagley, I would not be opposed to adding Randle who would provide the most impact as free agent signee, even though others may think their respective skills overlap. (Yes I would rather have Randle than Gordon simply because he's a more impactful player.)
I would also not discount the idea of Bagley spending time as three (with Giles at center and space creating 4). He would punish wing defenders in the post. I think he has the versatility and agility to defend the perimeter and play effective team defense. We could exploit his high activity level this way.
I would exclude Willie from any prospective lineups. The glorious thing about our lotto luck and overcoming 90% odds and with this draft being loaded with bigs is we can draft Willie's replacement, subsequently package him in a trade, thus clearing playing time for Skal, Giles, Bagley (Ayton) or other free agent or trade targets. It would be fair to worry a frontline of Willie and Bagley would NOT solve our defensive issues. But we don't need to worry. His potential effectiveness next to Bagley or whomever is not relevant when every effort is made to find Willie a new home.
Now maybe the trade market is lukewarm or nonexistent for Willie. So be it. But the idea of building around Willie is a flawed premise. We have a three player core (Buddy, Boggy, Fox) and a bunch of guys trying to figure it out. I wouldn't let the plusses and minuses of WCS game affect who I take on June 21.
I've all ready expressed my feelings on Bamba, he's my favorite prospect in the draft. Whether the Kings draft him at 2 remains to be seen but I do want to see him participate in some workouts so I'll keep my eyes open for that. The last time the Kings drafted for defensive need, he decided he doesn't want to be a defensive player and much rather would like to be the next KAT...sigh.
I would have NO problem if the Kings took Bamba over Bagley. I give a slight edge to Bagley because we likely run more with him and get more out of Fox this way. Bamba would likely be a better fit with Randle if we target him than Bagley and Randle. My concern with Bamba is whether we become more of a half court team as a result and perpetuate our league worst pace. There is the case to be made if he solves our rebounding and defends at the rim he can trigger more fast breaks. This is a reasonable proposition but the lowest risk player at #2 after Ayton is Bagley. And he's the one prospect who can fill the role of first scoring option, a role currently undefined.
My Top 4:
1. Ayton
2. Bagley
3. Bamba
4. Doncic
My Top 4:
1. Ayton
2. Bagley
3. Bamba
4. Doncic
Bamba is no slouch or sloth at his size, he is athletic and thin, he can run the floor just fine. He just needs to fix his nutrition and conditioning and he will be able to run up and down the court just fine, in my opinion. Even if Bamba doesn't provide the offense the Kings lack, he at the very least can provide the Kings a much needed defensive and rebounding presence. He may be foul prone at first until he learns the game better but none the less, I wouldn't be upset if they took him, even though I don't see that as a possibility anyway but it's nice to think hypothetically until we know for certain.
As far as Randle, I like Randle, he is tough and brings it but if the Kings draft a big, they have too many as is. One or two of Skal/Willie and Z-Bo need to be shipped and replaced with shooting because you can't throw out all that out there with no floor spacers, way too easy to defend.
As far as Randle, I like Randle, he is tough and brings it but if the Kings draft a big, they have too many as is. One or two of Skal/Willie and Z-Bo need to be shipped and replaced with shooting because you can't throw out all that out there with no floor spacers, way too easy to defend.
It'd be interesting to know how much influence Joerger has over the pick. I think he happens to have a fair amount. I can see him being partial to Bamba as a defensive-oriented coach. On the other hand, I can see hiim being excited about Bagley since he would likely be projected to contribute sooner. Since there is going to be higher team expectations as result of the #2, he will want someone he doesn't have to wait on. The closer we get to the draft, I think it could come down to an internal debate between these two players: Bamba and Bagley (assuming Ayton goes #1) with Doncic, Jackson and Porter excluded from consideration.
LOL. Willie has the speed, just not the capability to use it on a consistent basis. He reminds of a defensive back with 4.3 speed in the 40, but you rarely see it on the field. Bagley has the speed, the motor, the quickness, and the competitive fire that WCS just doesn't have. Really, the only thing that Bagley is not going to be able to do as good as Willie on Day 1 is guard on the perimeter and understand the switches.
I think WCS is gone by the mid-season trade deadline, unless they pick Doncic, and then I'm not so sure. Hopefully, WCS is gone during the summer or even before this draft in a deal that gives them another #1 in the lower part of the draft. Last season Joerger kept harping on the facts that the Kings just didn't have the size that other teams did and that's why they were losing. I must have heard him say that easily ten times or more during the season. If he has any say in the matter, I don't think Doncic is what he had in mind for this team improving.
I think WCS is gone by the mid-season trade deadline, unless they pick Doncic, and then I'm not so sure. Hopefully, WCS is gone during the summer or even before this draft in a deal that gives them another #1 in the lower part of the draft. Last season Joerger kept harping on the facts that the Kings just didn't have the size that other teams did and that's why they were losing. I must have heard him say that easily ten times or more during the season. If he has any say in the matter, I don't think Doncic is what he had in mind for this team improving.
Not sure how accurate it is, but hoopmath says that 29.8% of his shots are 2pt jumpers, and he makes them at a 41% clip. 13.2% of his shots are 3ptwrs, and he makes them at 39.7% clip. 1.8 3pt attempts a game.
So 43% of his shots are jumpers. And he makes them frequently. His FT% is low though at 62.7%.
His shot is in development, but he's very far along with it. Very promising stroke.
So 43% of his shots are jumpers. And he makes them frequently. His FT% is low though at 62.7%.
His shot is in development, but he's very far along with it. Very promising stroke.
If it were up to you Blob, how would you build around Bagley in the future? Who would you target? I think the best would be to start him next to a stretch 5 so he can have space inside. And you could unleash him as a backup five.
Teambuild is probably my main concern with him but I don't know If I am overthinking it.
Teambuild is probably my main concern with him but I don't know If I am overthinking it.
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