Luka Doncic (pre and post-draft discussion thread)

[sterö]

What purpose could it serve for the Kings to admit to a soft interest in Doncic if it was true? Just dilutes the trade power of the pick. That's why I feel it is for sure a smoke screen and Vlade is really just trying to discourage people from trading up in front of us for Doncic. He's trying to make damn sure he can grab him at 2.

If Vlade ACTUALLY was leaning to Porter or Bagley it seems he would want to keep that to himself.

But maybe I'm missing something.

The thing is that I don't think it's a smoke screen form our side. Usually a team just doesn't go out there an straight out lie to other teams. That might work once, but it hurts your reputation around the league and will do more harm than good in the long run. This has already been discussed during many NBA and NFL drafts in the past. I agree that you might not share your strategy, but you just don't spread BS.

So this means imo that the rumors/reports are either correct or incorrect. In any case, I don't think that the Kings front office would go out and already tell teams that we won't pick Doncic. This might make sense shortly before the draft, but not before the whole process has even started.

 

[sactowndog]

My biggest concern with Doncic is his first-step and quickness. He has trouble scoring in isolation and getting past his man. This is a legitimate problem that prevents some people from seeing him as the #1 prospect.

Here's an example of what I'm seeing:

https://twitter.com/statuses/998289375724097537

This is on a switch against 7'0 240lb Jan Vesley. This isn't just 1 rare example, it's a weakness in Doncic's game. He heavily relies on screens to get inside the paint. Can't really overlook athleticism, even though a lot of people like to. I think it starts with him slimming down. He looked in better shape coming out of P3.

That would be okay if he were a dead eye shooter but he isn’t. I’m not sure if his greatness translates to the longer quicker NBA.

 

[sactowndog]

I think when people look at the draftee's potential, they look at their athletic ability, basketball IQ and skills.

If the player is athletic, has good physical tools, good IQ and good skills, then the assumption is that with more experience and refining the skills the player can becomes a star.

Doncic is unfortunately not overly gifted athletically and his IQ and skills are already very advanced for his age. Now he can get in better physical shape, work on his athleticism but he is not going to start jumping our of the gym or running like a wind all of a sudden. There is only a small percentage that those attributes can be improved.

Even with the NBA training, Doncic could improve a bit athletically, his lateral movement, flexibility, muscle definition etc but the question is, will that improvement be enough given that his skills and IQ are already very advanced. This is why people are saying that he is going to be a good NBA player, a starter type but question whether he can be the franchise guy. Skills can be developed but you can't all of a sudden become an elite athlete.

People think that players like Ayton and Bagley have the highest upside in the draft and that is because they are in a way athletic freaks who run like a wind and there are no physical limitations to reaching the stardom. Now their skills have improved a great deal in the last 12 months which is why people have them flagged as potential stars. The question then becomes, what is their desire to succeed like, what is their work ethic like, what is their basketball IQ like. These are all things that are easier to teach than athletic tools. You can teach them, you can only improve on them but the scope for improvement there is pretty limited.

There has not been a perimeter franchise player in the modern game that has not be a good athlete. One thing with Doncic is that he is not overly athletic but possibly the most concerning thing is that he is not particularly flexible, in that he is not able to contour his body in traffic like the other players he is getting comparisons to (e.g. Manu, Hayward etc). He is pretty stiff in that aspect. Can he improve all of that enough to be a franchise guy? Who knows?! Time will tell but history is probably against him there. It doen't mean he will be a bust. Far from it. He is just about the safest pick in the draft. He won't bust. He will be a very good NBA player. A starter in the league and that is pretty darn good, if you have your franchise player already.

If we still had DMC and we had this #2 pick, I am picking Doncic and laughing all the way to the bank with it. The dude will not be a failure.

Right but he might not be the franchise player we need.

 

[whozit]

The thing is that I don't think it's a smoke screen form our side. .......

So this means imo that the rumors/reports are either correct or incorrect. In any case, I don't think that the Kings front office would go out and already tell teams that we won't pick Doncic. This might make sense shortly before the draft, but not before the whole process has even started.

If I'm not mistaken the first indications that the Kings wouldn't take him came from Skylar(?) Saying OTHER teams were telling him that, not the Kings. And one thing Vlade has done is quiet the leaks. I don't know what the Kings will do but I'm calling B.S. on multiple teams having the inside scoop on the Kings' leanings.

 

[John Galt]

What makes you think Vlade is talking to anybody?

because of funkykingston's take on givony's legitimacy. whoever is spreading this info - whether Vlade or not - I think it is mis-information ... that's all

 

[John Galt]

Complete rubbish.

Swap AD for Draymond Green and you don't think the Warriors still win or are a better team?

Any of those players you listed would win surrounded by the right talent. Look at KD as a prime example. Dude couldn't win a title his first 9 years in the league and made only 1 Finals appearance. Yet when he goes to a team with loads of talent, he suddenly breaks through. Same with LeBron James when he went to Miami.

Many believe (not me) that KD is at least the 2nd best player in the NBA. If he couldn't win for 9 seasons despite being a prototypical example of the type of player many argue is needed to win in today's game, then that should prove to you that it's not that simple. One great player can't win by themselves. Often times two isn't even enough.

Just because a player hasn't won a title yet doesn't mean they can't in today's NBA. It's all about building the right team around them.

As dominate as Shaq was, he didn't win until he was paired with a developing Kobe Bryant and the right mix of role players. Same goes for the great Michael Jordan who played for 6 seasons before breaking through with Scottie Pippen and the right mix of role players.

KD as a prime example of what? He almost won, and might have won next time if he had not taken a coward's way. I don't really want to argue your main point... but KD could have won a championship in OKC with one other superstar. He just wanted an easier softer way.

 

[John Galt]

I fail to see why a team would say ANYTHING about who they plan to pick or pass on. If they want Doncic, why do they need a smokescreen? If they want Bagley or Porter, why give a team who might also want them reason to trade and get ahead of us. Just doesn't make sense to leak any info at this stage.

In the NFL there is more reason for smokescreens because a trade from say 5 to 1 could mean multiple valuable picks in return. Dramatic trade ups don't happen as often in the NBA

John Lynch got quite a lot back from Chicago trading from 2 to 3, even though there was no rampant rumor that the Niners were going to take Mitch.

I think the only logical inference - IF the Kings are spreading the story that they might not be so hot on Luka - is to put teams at ease that they can get him by dealing with Atl and not Phx... which would be a much cheaper trade-up. Then BAM... "with the number 2 pick in the 1018 NBA draft, the Sacramento Kings select, Luka Doncic"

 

[jcwkings]

I think when people look at the draftee's potential, they look at their athletic ability, basketball IQ and skills.

If the player is athletic, has good physical tools, good IQ and good skills, then the assumption is that with more experience and refining the skills the player can becomes a star.

Doncic is unfortunately not overly gifted athletically and his IQ and skills are already very advanced for his age. Now he can get in better physical shape, work on his athleticism but he is not going to start jumping our of the gym or running like a wind all of a sudden. There is only a small percentage that those attributes can be improved.

Even with the NBA training, Doncic could improve a bit athletically, his lateral movement, flexibility, muscle definition etc but the question is, will that improvement be enough given that his skills and IQ are already very advanced. This is why people are saying that he is going to be a good NBA player, a starter type but question whether he can be the franchise guy. Skills can be developed but you can't all of a sudden become an elite athlete.

People think that players like Ayton and Bagley have the highest upside in the draft and that is because they are in a way athletic freaks who run like a wind and there are no physical limitations to reaching the stardom. Now their skills have improved a great deal in the last 12 months which is why people have them flagged as potential stars. The question then becomes, what is their desire to succeed like, what is their work ethic like, what is their basketball IQ like. These are all things that are easier to teach than athletic tools. You can teach them, you can only improve on them but the scope for improvement there is pretty limited.

There has not been a perimeter franchise player in the modern game that has not be a good athlete. One thing with Doncic is that he is not overly athletic but possibly the most concerning thing is that he is not particularly flexible, in that he is not able to contour his body in traffic like the other players he is getting comparisons to (e.g. Manu, Hayward etc). He is pretty stiff in that aspect. Can he improve all of that enough to be a franchise guy? Who knows?! Time will tell but history is probably against him there. It doen't mean he will be a bust. Far from it. He is just about the safest pick in the draft. He won't bust. He will be a very good NBA player. A starter in the league and that is pretty darn good, if you have your franchise player already.

If we still had DMC and we had this #2 pick, I am picking Doncic and laughing all the way to the bank with it. The dude will not be a failure.

Larry Bird, Magic Johnson, Steph Curry, Jason Kidd ,James Harden, Steve Nash all were/are average to below average atheltes. They all have special level basketball IQ though and thats what Doncic has. Now if you mix someone whose an elite athlete and special basketball IQ you get Lebron James.

 

[midtowner]

Uh, Harden and Kidd are phenomenal athletes.

 

[jcwkings]

Uh, Harden and Kidd are phenomenal athletes.

I agree, the problem is a lot of people only define athletic ability by how high you jump(how often do people talk about X guys max vert pre draft). Balance, reaction time, agility are all parts of being a good athlete for a basketball player. Doncic has very good grab and go open floor speed which is helped by his ball handling and vision. He has the frame to add muscle and should be able to absorb contact in ways guys like Harden, Ben Simmons are able to do on drives. Laterally he might struggle defensively in the ways guys like Harden and Curry do but I'm certain he will be a very good team defender because of his basketball IQ and strength very much like we saw Bogi last season. Bogi isn't the greatest laterally but his frame is Rock solid and is very smart at anticipating things.

 

[ESP47]

It's really going to wind up being a crap shoot either way. The points about Doncic's athleticism and ability to get by defenders without a screen are legit. If that part of his game doesn't develop, he won't be the best player on the Kings and they could possibly have Bogdan and a slightly better Bogdan. Not a bad thing but not a perennial playoff contender either. The good thing is, he's 19 and he's incredibly good for a kid that age. The bad thing is athleticism doesn't improve as you get older so he's going to need to develop some extra skills if he truly wants to be compared to Harden. As of right now he can work the pick and roll and use that step back like Harden but he can't take his man off the dribble in an iso situation like Harden can and that's half his game.

 

[kingsboi]

It's really going to wind up being a crap shoot either way. The points about Doncic's athleticism and ability to get by defenders without a screen are legit. If that part of his game doesn't develop, he won't be the best player on the Kings and they could possibly have Bogdan and a slightly better Bogdan. Not a bad thing but not a perennial playoff contender either. The good thing is, he's 19 and he's incredibly good for a kid that age. The bad thing is athleticism doesn't improve as you get older so he's going to need to develop some extra skills if he truly wants to be compared to Harden. As of right now he can work the pick and roll and use that step back like Harden but he can't take his man off the dribble in an iso situation like Harden can and that's half his game.

You'd be surprised just how much a diet and a professional athletic training staff can help a players athletic performance. That doesn't mean he will suddenly become an elite athlete but losing some of that fat he has on his frame and working on exercises that improve athletic ability will go a long way, should he choose to work on that aspect of his game.

 

[KingsFanSince85]

KD as a prime example of what? He almost won, and might have won next time if he had not taken a coward's way. I don't really want to argue your main point... but KD could have won a championship in OKC with one other superstar. He just wanted an easier softer way.

9 seasons. No titles. Despite being arguably the 2nd best player in the league and a wing. You say he could have won a championship if he had stayed. He could have won one during the 9 seasons prior..... but he didn’t. That’s the point. It ain’t that easy or simple, even for one of the best.

 

[funkykingston]

Givony always got a lot more accurate during the 24 hours leading up to the draft.

Exactly. Which leads me to believe that either he has a mystic gift where he suddenly gains a lot of insight as the draft approaches or he's getting fed info from sources on NBA teams.

Often times this is the trade off with guys who cover the NBA. They are leaked info from time to time and then used (knowingly or unknowingly) to help teams send out smoke signals or to help spin a story for PR purposes.

 

[funkykingston]

Uh, Harden and Kidd are phenomenal athletes.

Harden tested surprisingly well at the combine but his game tape was always that he was a sneaky athlete who would surprise with his burst or leaping ability but that it wasn't always on display. He's also a bit of momentum athlete but yes, he was significantly more athletic than Doncic coming out.

Kidd absolutely was a great athlete. That was the big issue with the "Lonzo is JKidd with a jump shot" comps - it ignored the big gap in athleticism.

Actually Ball is a pretty good comp for Doncic. Luka does much more of his passing in the half court off P&R while Lonzo does much better in transition but overall being somewhere between Ball and a bigger, slower Harden is how I'm viewing Doncic.

It also highlights that if you want to maximize Luka's talent you really have to put the ball in his hands at least a large amount of the time. Lonzo and Harden are both still good off the ball but they really shine when allowed to run the show.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

Exactly. Which leads me to believe that either he has a mystic gift where he suddenly gains a lot of insight as the draft approaches or he's getting fed info from sources on NBA teams.

Often times this is the trade off with guys who cover the NBA. They are leaked info from time to time and then used (knowingly or unknowingly) to help teams send out smoke signals or to help spin a story for PR purposes.

Everything you said here is 100% correct. This is the way the sports reporting world goes - even Woj has acknowledged that in exchange for all his scoops he gets asked to push PR.

 

[ockingsfan]

I remember in the Kings heyday that Geoff Petrie always said that he looked for players with NBA skill above everything else.

He drafted for skill players and the Kings flourished for years.

Don't underestimate skill when considering a prospect. When a player just understands the nuances of the game, they can out smart and find ways to win and take advantage of small openings.

Players like Steve Nash, Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, Gordon Hayward all with average athleticism and thrived in the NBA because they knew how to play the game. The game seems to be played in slow motion for these guys and I see Doncic the same way.

 

[John Galt]

9 seasons. No titles. Despite being arguably the 2nd best player in the league and a wing. You say he could have won a championship if he had stayed. He could have won one during the 9 seasons prior..... but he didn’t. That’s the point. It ain’t that easy or simple, even for one of the best.

Amen NONE OF THIS is that simple imo. None of it. (Changing subject now Even this idea that we must get a superstar or else with this pick. Like this is the most crucial crossroads ever... none of this is simple. What if next summer we have a buttload of cash - I mean a crap ton of cash - and a core of Fox, Bogi, Buddy, Luka, Giles who have just won hearts and minds with grit as they approached 40 wins and were never an easy out ... and we go superstar shopping then? Oh I know, simple says “no superstar will come here”. Bah there isn’t enough history to draw that conclusion. And that would be a hella-nice core to add a superstar to. So who says the superstar has to come in this draft.

Edit: The smiley was supposed to just be a colon and a closed paren.... but I guess that is grammatically not real so who am I to say it shouldn’t be a smile. Guess the universal surprised me with a smile today.

 

[King-Da-Yah]

Amen NONE OF THIS is that simple imo. None of it. (Changing subject now Even this idea that we must get a superstar or else with this pick. Like this is the most crucial crossroads ever... none of this is simple. What if next summer we have a buttload of cash - I mean a crap ton of cash - and a core of Fox, Bogi, Buddy, Luka, Giles who have just won hearts and minds with grit as they approached 40 wins and were never an easy out ... and we go superstar shopping then? Oh I know, simple says “no superstar will come here”. Bah there isn’t enough history to draw that conclusion. And that would be a hella-nice core to add a superstar to. So who says the superstar has to come in this draft.

It is a hella-nice time to be a Kings fan IMO...great post JG!

 

[Ball4life66]

Ya Atlanta with major holes at guard and SF would pass on Doncic to draft a big that doesn’t fit with Collins.

Some guy named Porzingis switched on him 3 times in this clips and Doncic scored 7 points

The Hawks best player is Taurean Prince and he is a 6'8 SF. And I believe Bagley or Ayton would fit fine with Collins.

 

[midtowner]

For my fellow draft geeks - you can skip the first 8 minutes or so (background of Ben Falk - Hinke’s analytics dude). There is a surprising amount of info relevant to Kings fans.

Listen to Ben Falk from Ode to Oden: the NBA Draft Show in Podcasts. https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/ode-to-oden-the-nba-draft-show/id1054741810?mt=2&i=1000411960372

 

[iowamcnabb]

I don’t know if this has been discussed, but do we really know Luka is unathletic? Do we have any metrics to base this off? Or is this simply eye test? I personally wonder how much quicker he would look if he lost 15 pounds. Gordon Hayward looks really ackward in some of his college vids and then more fluid in the nba.

 

[roasthawg]

So are you saying that if all of a sudden you magically inserted in prime Shaq, Duncan, Malone, Olajuwon, Robinson, Ewing etc that they would not be winning these days because they are not perimeter players? So if any of these players were in this years draft they woudn't be #1 picks?

C'mon man, the league has gone smaller because there is not enough of the quality big man around. Certainly not the HOF material that you had in the 90s and 2000s. Bottom line is that TALENT wins. If you don't have ENOUGH talent on your team, you are not going to win.

GSW are good not because they are perimeter oriented team but because they have at least 2 future HOFs and 4 perennial all-stars on their roster. Any team with that much genuine talent, regardless of positions that the talent plays would be pretty darn good and perennial contenders just like GSW are.

Portland tried to mimic what GSW are doing and they struggle to get out of the first round because their perimeter players are not a patch on what GSW have. Imitations are never as good as the originals. You should never be a follower, you should strive to be a leader. Kings teams from the "Golden era" would certainly not be out of place in today's NBA even though they have 3 of their starting 5 as 6'10" or taller. Its about the talent level and how they gel together as opposed to certain types of players.

Talent wins for sure but all other things being equal there's clearly something to be said for perimeter vs post player. I'm not advocating taking the less talented prospect... But if it's Doncic or Bagley and both are close talent wise I think you go with the perimeter guy. That's the higher value add, it's not about copying gsw. Post play on both ends of the court has been devalued by the three point shot. Doesn't mean it's worthless, just worth less than great perimeter play is at the moment.

 

[ockingsfan]

Here is a good watch and nice highlights from Luka's Euro finals performance.

 

[dude12]

In regards to Doncic and athleticism, I keep thinking how many had Bogie coming in as potentially struggling in that area....turns out he's quite good with the ball in his hand and defending and even defending faster or bigger guys. He knows how to play the game. I'm guessing Doncic is going to be the same way.

 

[206Fan]

In regards to Doncic and athleticism, I keep thinking how many had Bogie coming in as potentially struggling in that area....turns out he's quite good with the ball in his hand and defending and even defending faster or bigger guys. He knows how to play the game. I'm guessing Doncic is going to be the same way.

Bogie's average athleticism does make me feel better about Doncic in the NBA. However, Bogdan is more quicker and athletic than Doncic.

 

[OffTheWallJamal]

Gonna share my take why Doncic could be special...

Doncic is 6'8, 230lbs big guy and I mean really big guy, in the last two years he has played in total 149 official games in Europe, in my opinion it can go even over 160 games in the last two years, because of the Play-offs in the Spanish League, that's a lot of games for Europe standarts imo.

Looking at his body it looks like he hasn't had a chance to lift some weights or be in the weight room, but I can understand why, because his season two years ago started in 16th September 2016 and it was going till 16th June 2017, his season started last year with Slovenian national team playing friendlies which started in late July and his season gonna continue till mid June this year.

My point is just imagine what would he look like if he had one summer to make some work in weight room, at age of 19... right now to me he is not looking strong enough, fit enough at all, but he already is one of the best if not the best/one of the most accomplished players in Europe already, I really can't imagine what he would look like after really spending one summer to his body with NBA trainers... there was no way for him to really have time lift weights in the so called "offseason".

At the end to me he IS special.

 

[AleksandarN]

Oh I agree!

Luke will be a much better shooter in 2-3 years than he is now. His 31% from 3 is pretty misleading.

One of the benefits of having Peja here when it comes to helping with the development of the younger guys.

 

[AleksandarN]

One thing no ones talking about. Has Doncic stopped growing? It is possible he could still be growing. Imagine him at 6’10”. I know I am probably fantasying but if he is not done growing then that makes him even better. Last year he was listed at 6’7”.

 

[Joshoua]

Gonna share my take why Doncic could be special...

Doncic is 6'8, 230lbs big guy and I mean really big guy, in the last two years he has played in total 149 official games in Europe, in my opinion it can go even over 160 games in the last two years, because of the Play-offs in the Spanish League, that's a lot of games for Europe standarts imo.

Looking at his body it looks like he hasn't had a chance to lift some weights or be in the weight room, but I can understand why, because his season two years ago started in 16th September 2016 and it was going till 16th June 2017, his season started last year with Slovenian national team playing friendlies which started in late July and his season gonna continue till mid June this year.

My point is just imagine what would he look like if he had one summer to make some work in weight room, at age of 19... right now to me he is not looking strong enough, fit enough at all, but he already is one of the best if not the best/one of the most accomplished players in Europe already, I really can't imagine what he would look like after really spending one summer to his body with NBA trainers... there was no way for him to really have time lift weights in the so called "offseason".

At the end to me he IS special.

Not only that but you get better during the off season by working on your craft.

The Hawks best player is Taurean Prince and he is a 6'8 SF. And I believe Bagley or Ayton would fit fine with Collins.

You don’t pass on Doncic cause of Prince but Doncic would just play SG anyways. When yo look st Atlanta forums there fans suggest Bagley/Collins are too similar