Luka Doncic (pre and post-draft discussion thread)

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VF21

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What purpose could it serve for the Kings to admit to a soft interest in Doncic if it was true? Just dilutes the trade power of the pick. That's why I feel it is for sure a smoke screen and Vlade is really just trying to discourage people from trading up in front of us for Doncic. He's trying to make damn sure he can grab him at 2.

If Vlade ACTUALLY was leaning to Porter or Bagley it seems he would want to keep that to himself.

But maybe I'm missing something.
What makes you think Vlade is talking to anybody?
 
Gotta be Doncic at #2. Like others have said towns, ad, cousins, etc don't translate to wins in the NBA.
Complete rubbish.

Swap AD for Draymond Green and you don't think the Warriors still win or are a better team?

Any of those players you listed would win surrounded by the right talent. Look at KD as a prime example. Dude couldn't win a title his first 9 years in the league and made only 1 Finals appearance. Yet when he goes to a team with loads of talent, he suddenly breaks through. Same with LeBron James when he went to Miami.

Many believe (not me) that KD is at least the 2nd best player in the NBA. If he couldn't win for 9 seasons despite being a prototypical example of the type of player many argue is needed to win in today's game, then that should prove to you that it's not that simple. One great player can't win by themselves. Often times two isn't even enough.

Just because a player hasn't won a title yet doesn't mean they can't in today's NBA. It's all about building the right team around them.

As dominate as Shaq was, he didn't win until he was paired with a developing Kobe Bryant and the right mix of role players. Same goes for the great Michael Jordan who played for 6 seasons before breaking through with Scottie Pippen and the right mix of role players.
 
But there's no way to know if who he's talking to is telling it straight or blowing smoke. But it's definitely smoke screen season so I struggle to believe that teams are ever being honest with the media this time of year.
I fail to see why a team would say ANYTHING about who they plan to pick or pass on. If they want Doncic, why do they need a smokescreen? If they want Bagley or Porter, why give a team who might also want them reason to trade and get ahead of us. Just doesn't make sense to leak any info at this stage.

In the NFL there is more reason for smokescreens because a trade from say 5 to 1 could mean multiple valuable picks in return. Dramatic trade ups don't happen as often in the NBA
 
That's one thing that's been bizarre to me. It reads like for whatever reason Doncic at 19 playing in the second best league in the world has hit his cap. He is what he is.

But then there's everyone else who has superstar potential.
It's his athletic limitations. Hard to overlook it despite whatever he's accomplished in Europe. He's going in the history books, but that shouldn't hold a lot of weight when you're evaluating his skills.

Ok, let's look at what it means to be a superstar in the NBA. There's only 1 real quality you need, be able to score. Talking 25ppg+ in their prime.

1) Ayton has this superstar potential because he's an elite force on offense. He's one of the strongest, yet mobile bigs that fits with the Embiids and KATs. He dominates opponents down low more than Cousins did at Kentucky. On top of that, he's got a very good mid-range shot, and a developing 3pter. He's a physical beast at 7'0 240lbs. He's got the athletic tools+skills to be a 25ppg+ scorer.

2) Bagley has an edge for scoring. Elite PnP/PnR player. He's more of a project than Ayton, but his ability to score pts in short-term notice is AD-lite. He hunts for putbacks and has a non-stop motor. He's also got a good mid-range game going for him, and a developing 3pt shot. He's shown that if you need points down the stretch, he'll find a way to get them despite his conceived rawness. Athletic tools+motor+skills to be a 25ppg scorer.

3) MPJ is the biggest wildcard in this entire draft because of his back. With that aside, he's almost 6'11 with a near-elite jumpshot. He's got good quickness, and very good vertical bounce. His calling card has always been his scoring ability. He can score from anywhere on the floor due to his jumper. His handles are good for a player his size, and you can see he has a 3-level attack. On top of that, he plays very well off the ball getting inside or getting open. He has a scorer's mindset. Athletic tools+jumpshot+mentality to be a 25ppg scorer.

4) Young, one of the bigger bust candidates, but like MPJ, near-elite jumpshot. Great shooter. He has no problem being the go-to scorer and we saw it at Oklahoma where he carried a bad team into the tournament. On top of that, he's not selfish. He's got great handles and the ability to create his own shot. Probably the best out of the entire class. He's also got great quickness which allows him to attack in the open court and get to the rim. Of course, shot selection and lack of strength are his knocks. He's got the ball handling+jumpshot+mentality to be a 25ppg scorer.

The only players I've regularly seen being regarded as having "superstar" potential is Ayton and Bagley. I've only seen a handful argue for MPJ, and less so for Young.

So what's the biggest obvious thing that separates Doncic from those guys? He's just not the same type of athlete. I'm not going to say he's a poor athlete, but he's clearly a tier below any of them. His first-step is severly lacking, and as a result, it hampers his ability to beat defenders 1 on 1. He does a good job creating separation with his shot from his step-back jumper, but you need to see more than just step-backs from him. If you're talking "superstar", then he needs to be able to create his shot consistently and effectively. Due to his lack of quickness, sometimes he struggles to beat defenders in isolation. He's not always able to get to the rim. His handles can improve, but more often than not, right when he passes up the half-court line, he shields his body away from the defender to alleviate pressure. He heavily relies on picks to get himself free and open. It really comes down to his quickness. Some question his scoring capacity due to his athletic limitations.

I haven't seen anyone say that Doncic is a finished product anywhere. It's not all that bizzare to question whether or not he has superstar potential. As I said over and over again, there's only a handful of superstars in the NBA.
 
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Doncic is 19, he’s already a European champion, Euroleague champion, ACB champion, Euroleague MVP, Euroleague Final 4 MVP. He’s been playing at the highest level in Europe for 3 years now. How can someone not be excited about drafting this guy? If he’s there at 2 I want to Kings to pick him and run away.
Unless something major changes between now and June 21st, I'm all in on Luka Dončić. But I'm worried that PHX will take him. I was all in on FOX last season and was worried someone would take him before #5. That didn't happen so I'm hopeful my worries will be for not (again). But I think it's more likely that PHX to selects Luka over Ayton then it was for FOX to go the 4 teams ahead of the Kings last year. I hope I'm wrong.
 
That's one thing that's been bizarre to me. It reads like for whatever reason Doncic at 19 playing in the second best league in the world has hit his cap. He is what he is.

But then there's everyone else who has superstar potential.
I think when people look at the draftee's potential, they look at their athletic ability, basketball IQ and skills.

If the player is athletic, has good physical tools, good IQ and good skills, then the assumption is that with more experience and refining the skills the player can becomes a star.

Doncic is unfortunately not overly gifted athletically and his IQ and skills are already very advanced for his age. Now he can get in better physical shape, work on his athleticism but he is not going to start jumping our of the gym or running like a wind all of a sudden. There is only a small percentage that those attributes can be improved.

Even with the NBA training, Doncic could improve a bit athletically, his lateral movement, flexibility, muscle definition etc but the question is, will that improvement be enough given that his skills and IQ are already very advanced. This is why people are saying that he is going to be a good NBA player, a starter type but question whether he can be the franchise guy. Skills can be developed but you can't all of a sudden become an elite athlete.

People think that players like Ayton and Bagley have the highest upside in the draft and that is because they are in a way athletic freaks who run like a wind and there are no physical limitations to reaching the stardom. Now their skills have improved a great deal in the last 12 months which is why people have them flagged as potential stars. The question then becomes, what is their desire to succeed like, what is their work ethic like, what is their basketball IQ like. These are all things that are easier to teach than athletic tools. You can teach them, you can only improve on them but the scope for improvement there is pretty limited.

There has not been a perimeter franchise player in the modern game that has not be a good athlete. One thing with Doncic is that he is not overly athletic but possibly the most concerning thing is that he is not particularly flexible, in that he is not able to contour his body in traffic like the other players he is getting comparisons to (e.g. Manu, Hayward etc). He is pretty stiff in that aspect. Can he improve all of that enough to be a franchise guy? Who knows?! Time will tell but history is probably against him there. It doen't mean he will be a bust. Far from it. He is just about the safest pick in the draft. He won't bust. He will be a very good NBA player. A starter in the league and that is pretty darn good, if you have your franchise player already.

If we still had DMC and we had this #2 pick, I am picking Doncic and laughing all the way to the bank with it. The dude will not be a failure.
 
I fail to see why a team would say ANYTHING about who they plan to pick or pass on. If they want Doncic, why do they need a smokescreen? If they want Bagley or Porter, why give a team who might also want them reason to trade and get ahead of us. Just doesn't make sense to leak any info at this stage.

In the NFL there is more reason for smokescreens because a trade from say 5 to 1 could mean multiple valuable picks in return. Dramatic trade ups don't happen as often in the NBA
The reason to smoke screen for the Kings is the risk that Phoenix may change their mind and pick Doncic because they know how enanmored the Kings are with them.

Also, there is the risk that someone like Atlanta, Memphis or Dallas trades up to #1 to leap frog the Kings for Doncic.

The Kings best play would to send out false signals about just about every plausible player, besides the one they really like now.

It also gives the Kings an opportunity to possibly have someone trade up to #2 and give them a boatload of assets when the Kings may not really covet any of those top 2 or 3 players anyway.
 
The reason to smoke screen for the Kings is the risk that Phoenix may change their mind and pick Doncic because they know how enanmored the Kings are with them.

Also, there is the risk that someone like Atlanta, Memphis or Dallas trades up to #1 to leap frog the Kings for Doncic.

The Kings best play would to send out false signals about just about every plausible player, besides the one they really like now.

It also gives the Kings an opportunity to possibly have someone trade up to #2 and give them a boatload of assets when the Kings may not really covet any of those top 2 or 3 players anyway.
Phoenix doesn't have to worry about who the kings want as the first choice is theirs. It's possible that a team would trade up with the Kings and give up some crazy assets but I don't think leaking false info is what gets a team to pull the trigger on a trade. If someone really wants Doncic or Bagley they have to assume it will take a top 3 pick to get them.
 
The reason to smoke screen for the Kings is the risk that Phoenix may change their mind and pick Doncic because they know how enanmored the Kings are with them.
I actually agree with this. It seems ridiculous, but I do think they could be somewhat influenced by the Kings perceived interest. Throw in the fact that the Kings got over on them with the Bogdan Bogdanović trade and they may be swayed to go with Luka. Having a Euro coach that is very familiar with him only exasperates that possibility.


Also, there is the risk that someone like Atlanta, Memphis or Dallas trades up to #1 to leap frog the Kings for Doncic.
Maybe it's just me, but I just don't see PHX trading out where they don't get either of the perceived top 2 prospects. They'd have to land a couple really players. Who among the top 5-6 has that and would be willing to part with it?

If the Minnesota rumors are true (not sure I buy into them), then I could easily see the SUNS trading #1 for KAT. And if they did, I would think Ayton would be their target over Luka. But sans that, I'm not sure I see them trading it.
 
I believe that athleticism is often vastly overrated. I'd rather have elite skill over elite athleticism any day.

Larry Bird is the poster child of this. Never much of an athlete but supremely skilled at everything else.
Larry Bird played last century.....in the 80s.

I think we will all agree that the game has moved on a great deal and its arguably more athletic than it has every been before.
 
He’s not passing 3 or 4


Also it’s interesting how Doncic can’t get better but other prospects could. Hell even if he doesn’t improve and just translates to the nba game he’ll still be a 15–5-5 guy
That's one thing that's been bizarre to me. It reads like for whatever reason Doncic at 19 playing in the second best league in the world has hit his cap. He is what he is.

But then there's everyone else who has superstar potential.
I agree completely. I think this is one of most pronounced draft errors that NBA GMs have made over past drafts. Banking on athleticism over skill because you cant teach size, you cant teach athleticism, right? And if you suscribe to such logic, of course Doncic seems already so skilled but is just average athletically. Thus you ask yourself, how much better can he get?
I think that is fatal flaw in draft philosophy. Actually, it seems it is the other way round. If you are already skilled, it is much easier to get better at that skill. Its why Stephen Curry and James Harden are so good. They are average athletically, but have just enough size and just enough athleticism to allow their skill to dominate. Same with Doncic. He is 19 years old. He already can shoot but he needs to get more consistent. Great, he has 6 years of training with NBA trainers in the off season to improve before he even turns 25. So why dont we think about that ceiling scenario. What if he will be a 42% shooter from three in a few years on good voume? What if you can run him off screens, use him in the pick and roll as a handler and in the next set have him set ball screens? How are you going to game plan against that?
His passing is already elite. Watch the tape. The passes that he throws in terms of timing etc are insane. He passes his teammates open.
Not to mention there is a way to get him more explosive. We already saw that he got more explosive after spending the summer 2016 in the US at P3. After two years of playing basketball non stop, he seems to be back. But is it really out of the realm of possibility that if he actually has the summers off, with way better pro development personnel, that he will get more explosive?

For real, if I was the GM of a team picking number 2 or 3 I would hope the Suns make the mistake of passing on him.
 
I think when people look at the draftee's potential, they look at their athletic ability, basketball IQ and skills.

If the player is athletic, has good physical tools, good IQ and good skills, then the assumption is that with more experience and refining the skills the player can becomes a star.

Doncic is unfortunately not overly gifted athletically and his IQ and skills are already very advanced for his age. Now he can get in better physical shape, work on his athleticism but he is not going to start jumping our of the gym or running like a wind all of a sudden. There is only a small percentage that those attributes can be improved.

Even with the NBA training, Doncic could improve a bit athletically, his lateral movement, flexibility, muscle definition etc but the question is, will that improvement be enough given that his skills and IQ are already very advanced. This is why people are saying that he is going to be a good NBA player, a starter type but question whether he can be the franchise guy. Skills can be developed but you can't all of a sudden become an elite athlete.

People think that players like Ayton and Bagley have the highest upside in the draft and that is because they are in a way athletic freaks who run like a wind and there are no physical limitations to reaching the stardom. Now their skills have improved a great deal in the last 12 months which is why people have them flagged as potential stars. The question then becomes, what is their desire to succeed like, what is their work ethic like, what is their basketball IQ like. These are all things that are easier to teach than athletic tools. You can teach them, you can only improve on them but the scope for improvement there is pretty limited.

There has not been a perimeter franchise player in the modern game that has not be a good athlete. One thing with Doncic is that he is not overly athletic but possibly the most concerning thing is that he is not particularly flexible, in that he is not able to contour his body in traffic like the other players he is getting comparisons to (e.g. Manu, Hayward etc). He is pretty stiff in that aspect. Can he improve all of that enough to be a franchise guy? Who knows?! Time will tell but history is probably against him there. It doen't mean he will be a bust. Far from it. He is just about the safest pick in the draft. He won't bust. He will be a very good NBA player. A starter in the league and that is pretty darn good, if you have your franchise player already.

If we still had DMC and we had this #2 pick, I am picking Doncic and laughing all the way to the bank with it. The dude will not be a failure.
Yes, exactly. You said it perfectly. People love to overlook athletic limitations, but you can't in the NBA. I don't know why there's an exception on Doncic.
 
Complete rubbish.

Swap AD for Draymond Green and you don't think the Warriors still win or are a better team?

Any of those players you listed would win surrounded by the right talent. Look at KD as a prime example. Dude couldn't win a title his first 9 years in the league and made only 1 Finals appearance. Yet when he goes to a team with loads of talent, he suddenly breaks through. Same with LeBron James when he went to Miami.

Many believe (not me) that KD is at least the 2nd best player in the NBA. If he couldn't win for 9 seasons despite being a prototypical example of the type of player many argue is needed to win in today's game, then that should prove to you that it's not that simple. One great player can't win by themselves. Often times two isn't even enough.

Just because a player hasn't won a title yet doesn't mean they can't in today's NBA. It's all about building the right team around them.

As dominate as Shaq was, he didn't win until he was paired with a developing Kobe Bryant and the right mix of role players. Same goes for the great Michael Jordan who played for 6 seasons before breaking through with Scottie Pippen and the right mix of role players.
Never said none of those guys could win a title... But as of right now they're not even competing for division titles. Kd didn't win a ring til he got to the warriors but he was competing for them. No one but LeBron can do it all by themselves but there's a type of player in today's NBA that translates to wins more readily than any other type... And that's wings that can handle, shoot, and pass. Those are the guys you want your offense flowing through with the way the game is today. Doncic looks to be one of those type of players. If he pans out there's a very good chance it'll translate to a lot of wins. Can't say the same for the bigs... Ayton or Bagley can be perennial 20-10 guys on teams battling for the 8th seed. Not saying they also can't be more than that but with them you have the added option of them being a good player that doesn't help their team win games. With Doncic I don't think that's a real option... If he's good his team is gonna win a bunch of games.
 

pdxKingsFan

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I fail to see why a team would say ANYTHING about who they plan to pick or pass on. If they want Doncic, why do they need a smokescreen? If they want Bagley or Porter, why give a team who might also want them reason to trade and get ahead of us. Just doesn't make sense to leak any info at this stage.

In the NFL there is more reason for smokescreens because a trade from say 5 to 1 could mean multiple valuable picks in return. Dramatic trade ups don't happen as often in the NBA
The main reason is because they don't want a team to trade with Phoenix for Doncic at 1. Saying "we're going to evaluate all our options" is a) smart period because maybe we find someone we like more and b) keeps our cards close to the vest. Look at what Boston did last year for further proof.
 
Ya if Vlade was leaning towards Bagley/Porter he wouldn’t be telling every team that he’s not taking Doncic. He’d trade down saying he loves Doncic. But Vlade will take Doncic unless he wants to get fired

What purpose could it serve for the Kings to admit to a soft interest in Doncic if it was true? Just dilutes the trade power of the pick. That's why I feel it is for sure a smoke screen and Vlade is really just trying to discourage people from trading up in front of us for Doncic. He's trying to make damn sure he can grab him at 2.

If Vlade ACTUALLY was leaning to Porter or Bagley it seems he would want to keep that to himself.

But maybe I'm missing something.

That's one thing that's been bizarre to me. It reads like for whatever reason Doncic at 19 playing in the second best league in the world has hit his cap. He is what he is.

But then there's everyone else who has superstar potential.
Porter gets more love for dominating kids that are taking accounting classes right now. I’ve said it before I’ll say it again it seems that Doncic would have been better served coming here dominating 6’2 HS kids than dominating grown men who’d be stars in college right now
 
I agree completely. I think this is one of most pronounced draft errors that NBA GMs have made over past drafts. Banking on athleticism over skill because you cant teach size, you cant teach athleticism, right? And if you suscribe to such logic, of course Doncic seems already so skilled but is just average athletically. Thus you ask yourself, how much better can he get?
I think that is fatal flaw in draft philosophy. Actually, it seems it is the other way round. If you are already skilled, it is much easier to get better at that skill. Its why Stephen Curry and James Harden are so good. They are average athletically, but have just enough size and just enough athleticism to allow their skill to dominate. Same with Doncic. He is 19 years old. He already can shoot but he needs to get more consistent. Great, he has 6 years of training with NBA trainers in the off season to improve before he even turns 25. So why dont we think about that ceiling scenario. What if he will be a 42% shooter from three in a few years on good voume? What if you can run him off screens, use him in the pick and roll as a handler and in the next set have him set ball screens? How are you going to game plan against that?
His passing is already elite. Watch the tape. The passes that he throws in terms of timing etc are insane. He passes his teammates open.
Not to mention there is a way to get him more explosive. We already saw that he got more explosive after spending the summer 2016 in the US at P3. After two years of playing basketball non stop, he seems to be back. But is it really out of the realm of possibility that if he actually has the summers off, with way better pro development personnel, that he will get more explosive?

For real, if I was the GM of a team picking number 2 or 3 I would hope the Suns make the mistake of passing on him.
What GMs have made that error?

Players who were drafted in the 1st round with average athleticism or below.
2016 draft:
  • Buddy Hield
  • Jamal Murray
  • Georgios Papagiannis
  • Denzel Valentine
  • Malachi Richardson
  • Damian Jones
2015 draft:
  • D'Angelo Russell
  • Jahlil Okafor
  • Frank Kaminsky
  • Devin Booker
  • Cameron Payne
  • Delon Wright
  • Tyus Jones
  • RJ Hunter
2014 draft:
  • Nik Stauskas
  • Doug McDermott
  • Jusuf Nurkic
  • Tyler Ennis
  • Mitch McGary
  • Jordan Adams
  • PJ Hairston
  • Josh Huesitis
  • Kyle Anderson
2013 draft:
  • Anthony Bennett
  • Alex Len
  • Trey Burke
  • CJ McCollum
  • Reggie Bullock
Lots of these guys on these lists are disappointments and busts in the NBA. What do they all share in common? Lack of athleticism. How often did GMs commit these errors? Not often. So I do think it's silly to write off athleticism in the NBA. I know you weren't the one saying that, but I just mean in general.

At the end of the day, you can help a player develop a skill, but you can't help them become more athletic.
 
Ya if Vlade was leaning towards Bagley/Porter he wouldn’t be telling every team that he’s not taking Doncic. He’d trade down saying he loves Doncic. But Vlade will take Doncic unless he wants to get fired






Porter gets more love for dominating kids that are taking accounting classes right now. I’ve said it before I’ll say it again it seems that Doncic would have been better served coming here dominating 6’2 HS kids than dominating grown men who’d be stars in college right now
6'2 HS kids is a funny way to describe the top 30 recruits in his class which include many future NBA prospects. Porter gets love as a prospect for all that he brings to the table, not for dominating 6'2 HS kids.

How would you feel if I applied that same logic to Harry Giles who only dominated 6'2 HS kids?
 
Yes, exactly. You said it perfectly. People love to overlook athletic limitations, but you can't in the NBA. I don't know why there's an exception on Doncic.
I am honestly curious, for which high picked players that were comparable to the package that Doncic brings did the public/Gms overlook athletic limitations? Jimmer of course, but Jimmer never had the size or the vision. Rubio never developed the shot. Maybe D'Angelo Russel? But his bbiq is highly questionaible. Stauskas maybe. Thats probably the one, but I think with him it is more toughness and strength and thats not a concern for me with Doncic.

On the other hand I can think of lots of guys that had the athleticism, but didnt make it because of lack of skills/IQ. T-Rob, Mclemore, Wiggins, Mudiay, Nerlens Noel.

On the other hand, guys that were perceived as low ceiling players that did make it: Jamal Murray, Buddy Hield, Saric, Steph, Harden.
 
What GMs have made that error?

Players who were drafted in the 1st round with average athleticism or below.
2016 draft:
  • Buddy Hield
  • Jamal Murray
  • Georgios Papagiannis
  • Denzel Valentine
  • Malachi Richardson
  • Damian Jones
2015 draft:
  • D'Angelo Russell
  • Jahlil Okafor
  • Frank Kaminsky
  • Devin Booker
  • Cameron Payne
  • Delon Wright
  • Tyus Jones
  • RJ Hunter
2014 draft:
  • Nik Stauskas
  • Doug McDermott
  • Jusuf Nurkic
  • Tyler Ennis
  • Mitch McGary
  • Jordan Adams
  • PJ Hairston
  • Josh Huesitis
  • Kyle Anderson
2013 draft:
  • Anthony Bennett
  • Alex Len
  • Trey Burke
  • CJ McCollum
  • Reggie Bullock
Lots of these guys on these lists are disappointments and busts in the NBA. What do they all share in common? Lack of athleticism. How often did GMs commit these errors? Not often. So I do think it's silly to write off athleticism in the NBA. I know you weren't the one saying that, but I just mean in general.

At the end of the day, you can help a player develop a skill, but you can't help them become more athletic.
Ha, you already answered my question before I posted it :) . To be honest, i donkt think this discussion will lead to anywhere. I can understandy why you brought them up, but for me none of them is even close to doncics package of size, feel, passing and shooting projection.
 
Ha, you already answered my question before I posted it :) . To be honest, i donkt think this discussion will lead to anywhere. I can understandy why you brought them up, but for me none of them is even close to doncics package of size, feel, passing and shooting projection.
Well Doncic is special in the way where we can have long drawn out debates just to find ourselves running in a circle. In the end, Doncic will just need to prove he can dominate the NBA the way he did in Europe without great athleticism. That's his biggest concern and weakness as a prospect.
 
It's his athletic limitations. Hard to overlook it despite whatever he's accomplished in Europe. He's going in the history books, but that shouldn't hold a lot of weight when you're evaluating his skills.

Ok, let's look at what it means to be a superstar in the NBA. There's only 1 real quality you need, be able to score. Talking 25ppg+ in their prime.

1) Ayton has this superstar potential because he's an elite force on offense. He's one of the strongest, yet mobile bigs that fits with the Embiids and KATs. He dominates opponents down low more than Cousins did at Kentucky. On top of that, he's got a very good mid-range shot, and a developing 3pter. He's a physical beast at 7'0 240lbs. He's got the athletic tools+skills to be a 25ppg+ scorer.

2) Bagley has an edge for scoring. Elite PnP/PnR player. He's more of a project than Ayton, but his ability to score pts in short-term notice is AD-lite. He hunts for putbacks and has a non-stop motor. He's also got a good mid-range game going for him, and a developing 3pt shot. He's shown that if you need points down the stretch, he'll find a way to get them despite his conceived rawness. Athletic tools+motor+skills to be a 25ppg scorer.

3) MPJ is the biggest wildcard in this entire draft because of his back. With that aside, he's almost 6'11 with a near-elite jumpshot. He's got good quickness, and very good vertical bounce. His calling card has always been his scoring ability. He can score from anywhere on the floor due to his jumper. His handles are good for a player his size, and you can see he has a 3-level attack. On top of that, he plays very well off the ball getting inside or getting open. He has a scorer's mindset. Athletic tools+jumpshot+mentality to be a 25ppg scorer.

4) Young, one of the bigger bust candidates, but like MPJ, near-elite jumpshot. Great shooter. He has no problem being the go-to scorer and we saw it at Oklahoma where he carried a bad team into the tournament. On top of that, he's not selfish. He's got great handles and the ability to create his own shot. Probably the best out of the entire class. He's also got great quickness which allows him to attack in the open court and get to the rim. Of course, shot selection and lack of strength are his knocks. He's got the ball handling+jumpshot+mentality to be a 25ppg scorer.

The only players I've regularly seen being regarded as having "superstar" potential is Ayton and Bagley. I've only seen a handful argue for MPJ, and less so for Young.

So what's the biggest obvious thing that separates Doncic from those guys? He's just not the same type of athlete. I'm not going to say he's a poor athlete, but he's clearly a tier below any of them. His first-step is severly lacking, and as a result, it hampers his ability to beat defenders 1 on 1. He does a good job creating separation with his shot from his step-back jumper, but you need to see more than just step-backs from him. If you're talking "superstar", then he needs to be able to create his shot consistently and effectively. Due to his lack of quickness, sometimes he struggles to beat defenders in isolation. He's not always able to get to the rim. His handles can improve, but more often than not, right when he passes up the half-court line, he shields his body away from the defender to alleviate pressure. He heavily relies on picks to get himself free and open. It really comes down to his quickness. Some question his scoring capacity due to his athletic limitations.

I haven't seen anyone say that Doncic is a finished product anywhere. It's not all that bizzare to question whether or not he has superstar potential. As I said over and over again, there's only a handful of superstars in the NBA.
My dude you’re out here throwing a guy would average 25ppg like candy. That’s elite elite scoring and I’ll bet my life saving Porter/Young/Bagley don’t get there. I actually guarantee none of them get to 25ppg and only Bagley gets to 20ppg if he works out.

6'2 HS kids is a funny way to describe the top 30 recruits in his class which include many future NBA prospects. Porter gets love as a prospect for all that he brings to the table, not for dominating 6'2 HS kids.

How would you feel if I applied that same logic to Harry Giles who only dominated 6'2 HS kids?
Watch the tape Porter is shooting mid range shots on them because he can’t get to the rim. Cause of his size he’s getting there and just rising that not gonna happen in the pros with his shaky handles and upright/tight body.

Harrison Barnes, River, shabazz Mohammad we’re all the 2nd coming cause of high school hype.
 
Never said none of those guys could win a title... But as of right now they're not even competing for division titles. Kd didn't win a ring til he got to the warriors but he was competing for them. No one but LeBron can do it all by themselves but there's a type of player in today's NBA that translates to wins more readily than any other type... And that's wings that can handle, shoot, and pass. Those are the guys you want your offense flowing through with the way the game is today. Doncic looks to be one of those type of players. If he pans out there's a very good chance it'll translate to a lot of wins. Can't say the same for the bigs... Ayton or Bagley can be perennial 20-10 guys on teams battling for the 8th seed. Not saying they also can't be more than that but with them you have the added option of them being a good player that doesn't help their team win games. With Doncic I don't think that's a real option... If he's good his team is gonna win a bunch of games.
So are you saying that if all of a sudden you magically inserted in prime Shaq, Duncan, Malone, Olajuwon, Robinson, Ewing etc that they would not be winning these days because they are not perimeter players? So if any of these players were in this years draft they woudn't be #1 picks?

C'mon man, the league has gone smaller because there is not enough of the quality big man around. Certainly not the HOF material that you had in the 90s and 2000s. Bottom line is that TALENT wins. If you don't have ENOUGH talent on your team, you are not going to win.

GSW are good not because they are perimeter oriented team but because they have at least 2 future HOFs and 4 perennial all-stars on their roster. Any team with that much genuine talent, regardless of positions that the talent plays would be pretty darn good and perennial contenders just like GSW are.

Portland tried to mimic what GSW are doing and they struggle to get out of the first round because their perimeter players are not a patch on what GSW have. Imitations are never as good as the originals. You should never be a follower, you should strive to be a leader. Kings teams from the "Golden era" would certainly not be out of place in today's NBA even though they have 3 of their starting 5 as 6'10" or taller. Its about the talent level and how they gel together as opposed to certain types of players.
 
I think when people look at the draftee's potential, they look at their athletic ability, basketball IQ and skill.
My opinion, and I think you will get me, is that Vlade will look into the players character a lot. How is he in a locker room, is he a team player or does he play for his stats, is he loyal, etc. I think He wants to get great group of guys, who breath like one, and play for the team and do what is best for the team. So far he turned franchise from very scandalous (if i found a right word), one player dependent and Coach rolercoasters to a team that has a great chemistry on and off a court and team without turbulences.

Doncic fits perfectly into this group, so if he is there at number 2, I think there is no way Kings will not want him. And I am sure he wants either Suns, because of Kokoskov or Kings as they are building something he can find himself in. And also Luka would have Bogdan to help him adapt faster.
 
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Larry Bird played last century.....in the 80s.

I think we will all agree that the game has moved on a great deal and its arguably more athletic than it has every been before.
No we don't agree. Because my point is still valid. Skill still trumps athleticism. It did 26 years ago when Bird retired and still does today.

Or course having BOTH would be better. See Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant as exhibits A and B.

Steph Curry is one of the elite players of this new era and led the charge in how the game is currently being played. He's far more skillful than athletic. If you compare him to every other starting guard in the league, he's gonna come up near the bottom tier with regard to athleticism. However, he's one of the games most impactful players despite it all.

Before Steph, we had Steve Nash winning MVP's in a similar fashion.

Nothing has changed from the 80 and 90's through today in that respect.
 
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It's really hard to find a proper nba comparison for Luka.

Elite traits- handle, vision and rebounding for a wing, composure, ability to get to the line, free throw shooting.

Above average traits- shooting inside the arc (may be elite)

Average traits-3 point shooting (decent chance to be AA or elite based on form) breaking down defender one on one (TBD but based on eye test)

Below average traits- athleticism, defense (for now)

I just went back and watched some Gordon Hayward highlights from Butler and you can kinda see the comparison offensively and athletically. Luka has a grown man's body at 19 whereas Gordon was much thinner.

As others have mentioned, strength and conditioning for Luka could really make a big difference in his game

Gordon in college
Gordon in his prime
 
It's really hard to find a proper nba comparison for Luka.

Elite traits- handle, vision and rebounding for a wing, composure, ability to get to the line, free throw shooting.

Above average traits- shooting inside the arc (may be elite)

Average traits-3 point shooting (decent chance to be AA or elite based on form) breaking down defender one on one (TBD but based on eye test)

Below average traits- athleticism, defense (for now)

I just went back and watched some Gordon Hayward highlights from Butler and you can kinda see the comparison offensively and athletically. Luka has a grown man's body at 19 whereas Gordon was much thinner.

As others have mentioned, strength and conditioning for Luka could really make a big difference in his game
Not a bad comparison IMO. Although I'd say Hayward is more of a pure scorer than Luka while Luka is much more of a play maker than Gordon. But size wise and athletically, they seem fairly comparable.
 
I think when people look at the draftee's potential, they look at their athletic ability, basketball IQ and skills.

If the player is athletic, has good physical tools, good IQ and good skills, then the assumption is that with more experience and refining the skills the player can becomes a star.

Doncic is unfortunately not overly gifted athletically and his IQ and skills are already very advanced for his age. Now he can get in better physical shape, work on his athleticism but he is not going to start jumping our of the gym or running like a wind all of a sudden. There is only a small percentage that those attributes can be improved.

Even with the NBA training, Doncic could improve a bit athletically, his lateral movement, flexibility, muscle definition etc but the question is, will that improvement be enough given that his skills and IQ are already very advanced. This is why people are saying that he is going to be a good NBA player, a starter type but question whether he can be the franchise guy. Skills can be developed but you can't all of a sudden become an elite athlete.

People think that players like Ayton and Bagley have the highest upside in the draft and that is because they are in a way athletic freaks who run like a wind and there are no physical limitations to reaching the stardom. Now their skills have improved a great deal in the last 12 months which is why people have them flagged as potential stars. The question then becomes, what is their desire to succeed like, what is their work ethic like, what is their basketball IQ like. These are all things that are easier to teach than athletic tools. You can teach them, you can only improve on them but the scope for improvement there is pretty limited.

There has not been a perimeter franchise player in the modern game that has not be a good athlete. One thing with Doncic is that he is not overly athletic but possibly the most concerning thing is that he is not particularly flexible, in that he is not able to contour his body in traffic like the other players he is getting comparisons to (e.g. Manu, Hayward etc). He is pretty stiff in that aspect. Can he improve all of that enough to be a franchise guy? Who knows?! Time will tell but history is probably against him there. It doen't mean he will be a bust. Far from it. He is just about the safest pick in the draft. He won't bust. He will be a very good NBA player. A starter in the league and that is pretty darn good, if you have your franchise player already.

If we still had DMC and we had this #2 pick, I am picking Doncic and laughing all the way to the bank with it. The dude will not be a failure.
I think one thing that will dramatically improve will be his shooting. There is still a lot of untapped potential in Doncic. No way a finished project
 
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