Lottery position thread

[fnordius]

As of right now we are in 10th. If we get very lucky, we may get 1, 2, or 3. If we get even more unlucky, we could get bumped to 11, 12, or 13.

So the possibilities are 1, 2, 3, 10, 11, 12, 13. Chances are we'll be 10 (or 11). Most likely 10.

Actually, as you go later in the draft order, just as your chances of moving up go away, so do your chances of dropping far. 12th place is possible for us, but only barely (1/500 chance), and 13th is impossible -- you cannot drop more than 2 positions unless you're 6th or earlier.

And, as unlikely as it is for us to get into the top 3, it is still 3 times more likely than it was for Charlotte in '99 (as mentioned by Vlade4GM).

 

[ParniValjak]

I got a treat for everyone. Here's the 1999 draft lottery where the hornets who had the 13th position and got the third pick. If they can do it, so can we!!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UYFTL13fgLg

Kings are known to have a rotten luck so I expect us to be picking 11th or 12th

 

[uolj]

Actually, as you go later in the draft order, just as your chances of moving up go away, so do your chances of dropping far. 12th place is possible for us, but only barely (1/500 chance), and 13th is impossible -- you cannot drop more than 2 positions unless you're 6th or earlier.

And, as unlikely as it is for us to get into the top 3, it is still 3 times more likely than it was for Charlotte in '99 (as mentioned by Vlade4GM).

Why can't you drop three positions? Can't the 11, 12 and 13 teams get the top 3 picks?

 

[Bricklayer]

Why can't you drop three positions? Can't the 11, 12 and 13 teams get the top 3 picks?

You know, that's an interesting question, but I've seen the same numbers he was relying on there. Not sure if maybe the chances are just so small they don't list them, or if there is some sort of rule? In any case they seem to only list the odds of droppping 1 slot (just large enough to be alarming) or 2 (grandiously crappy luck), but not the full three that would seem possible.

 

[Warhawk]

You know, that's an interesting question, but I've seen the same numbers he was relying on there. Not sure if maybe the chances are just so small they don't list them, or if there is some sort of rule? In any case they seem to only list the odds of droppping 1 slot (just large enough to be alarming) or 2 (grandiously crappy luck), but not the full three that would seem possible.

It is possible, just EXTREMELY improbable. Knowing us, we'd find a way...

 

[Sptsjunkie]

Unfortunately with the game going international, all that that means is that now we, along with everybody else, KNOW about the international guys who would once have been sleepers. There are no more Pejas. Heck you can go to youtube and find a mixtape of just about every player in the world who's likely to be picked in the first round.

While I agree with your point that international players are no longer under rated, I think his point is still valid. It is still very possible that a GM picking 1-9 (assuming we do get the 10th pick) will do something stupid and take a late riser who is not deserving of a top ten pick. It happens most years in the lottery and it would not be an aberation for a GM to reach this year leaving us with a better player than we are expecting to have access to.

 

[Smills91]

FWIW Chad Ford is reporting that Brandon Wright seems to be the guy slipping on the draft board...that might just be from 3 to 6 or 7 but maybe he slips further? Crazier things have happened.

 

[ParniValjak]

FWIW Chad Ford is reporting that Brandon Wright seems to be the guy slipping on the draft board...that might just be from 3 to 6 or 7 but maybe he slips further? Crazier things have happened.

In our dreams

 

[Vlade4GM]

FWIW Chad Ford is reporting that Brandon Wright seems to be the guy slipping on the draft board...that might just be from 3 to 6 or 7 but maybe he slips further? Crazier things have happened.

The only way we're getting him is by getting into the top 3, period end of discussion.

 

[Smills91]

The only way we're getting him is by getting into the top 3, period end of discussion.

In 98 Paul Pierce was regarded as a top 3-5 pick and slipped to the Celts at #10. Lots of unforeseen things could occur. While I say it's unlikely, it's far from impossible as well.

 

[fnordius]

I checked 5 mock drafts, and 4 of the 5 had him going 3rd. ESPN alone had him dropping to 5th.

It's possible that Oden and Durant will also be available at the 10th or 11th pick, but I'm not going to spend any time thinking about it.

 

[VF21]

It's possible that Oden and Durant will also be available at the 10th or 11th pick...

It's also "possible" that alien life forms will sweep in and grab David Stern from in front of the podium and hold him for ransom.

I think the odds of either of the two scenarios actually occurring are about equal.

 

[BritishColumbia]

It's also "possible" that alien life forms will sweep in and grab David Stern from in front of the podium and hold him for ransom.

I think the odds of either of the two scenarios actually occurring are about equal.

[SIZE=-1]Sounds realistically ... actually ..... world is getting crazy ... everything is possible ... so, may be we still have a chance [/SIZE]

 

[HighFlyingMonkey]

It's also "possible" that alien life forms will sweep in and grab David Stern from in front of the podium and hold him for ransom.

I think the odds of either of the two scenarios actually occurring are about equal.

I'd take my chances with the Aliens

 

[fnordius]

I'd take my chances with the Aliens

For me, it's a tough call. I'd really like to get Oden, but who could pass up seeing Stern hauled off into a flying saucer?

If you don't love that, you don't love NBA basketball!

 

[Gary]

When is the lottery?

 

[Vlade4GM]

When is the lottery?

next tuesday.

 

[Gary]

next tuesday.

You forgot Pollard in there (your sig).

He was the best backup center in the league!

 

[Merdiesel]

1.1%...

::Crosses fingers::

 

[Vlade4GM]

You forgot Pollard in there (your sig).

He was the best backup center in the league!

eh, maybe.