Lottery position thread
- Thread starter fnordius
- Start date
Following the lin over NO, we are tied for 9th/10th (at 33-48) with Charlotte. Their remaining game is against NY, who is a hair ahead of us at 32-49. If Charlotte wins and we lose to the Lakers, we end up in 9th place. If NY wins and we lose to the Lakers, we end up tied with both NY and Charlotte for 8th/9th/10th. So the only difference, as far as Charlotte and NY go, is how lucky we get on coin flips; if our luck is average, we're in 9th either way.
If we wose to the Lakers, however, we're likely to end up tied for 10th/11th with Philly -- or, in case of an upset, in sole possession of 11th -- so we still have something to fight for. 8th with luck, to 11th without, is a pretty big drop for a single game.
One last time... GO PINGS!
If we wose to the Lakers, however, we're likely to end up tied for 10th/11th with Philly -- or, in case of an upset, in sole possession of 11th -- so we still have something to fight for. 8th with luck, to 11th without, is a pretty big drop for a single game.
One last time... GO PINGS!
Frankly, after dropping from potentially 5th to at least 8th (with lousy chances at a top-3 pick), right now I think I am firmly seated (front row) in the "Who the he** cares at this point" bandwagon....
I know I should, but right now I really don't. We blew the one chance at possibly having a decent pick, we have no cash to spend, and our big $$$ guys are probably immovable objects at this point, so let's go kick some Laker behind and get the season over with.
I seriously doubt we see too many major moves except for maybe Muss getting fired and Ron Artest moved. And we'll draft another 2-3 and have QD play the 5 next year.
John Galt
Starter
Who says Portland and Minnesota can't win (vs Warriors and Grizzlies), along with New York to put us in a huge tie for 6th?
While possible, hasn't Portland been tanking worse than Shamu at SeaWorld?
Not really tanking but they've been hurt by injuries. Aldridge found out he has a heart condition, Randolph had to have surgery on his hand, Roy banged knees with TMac(I think, didn't see that injury though), and they have I think 2 other guys injuries. But it's not like Minnesota who is faking a KG injury, they're legit injuries.
I don't think they can beat GS though, GS is playing for the playoffs. But if the Warriors beat the Mavs(don't see the Mavs letting that happen tomorrow) and the clippers lose to the Suns than they might rest Baron Davis for the POs against Portland. And Memphis has been vicious ever since they stopped tanking. Just ask Denver.
Ok so here are the updated standings:
Position/Team/Record/Lottery Chances
1. Memphis 21-60 25%
2. Boston 24-57 19.9%
3. Milwaukee 28-53 15.6%
4. Atlanta 29-52 11.9%
5. Seattle 31-50 8.8%
6. New York 32-49 6.3%
7. Portland 32-49 4.3%
8. Minnesota 32-49 2.8%
9. Sacramento 33-48 1.7%
10. Charlotte 33-48 1.1%
11. Philly 34-46 0.8%
A win on Wednesday over the Lakers would be devastating, as we could lose the coin flip to Philly (if they lose their last 2 games) and be stuck at 11th with less than a 3% chance at a Top 3 pick. If we lose to L.A., we're basically guaranteed getting in the Top 10. And, if Minnesota, Portland, and New York can pull off wins in THEIR final games, we are looking at a 4-way tie for 6th (Charlotte plays New York on Wednesday). Minnesota would have to beat Memphis, who suddenly is rejuvenated after clinching the #1 spot in the lottery (winning 2 straight over Denver and San Antonio...though the Spurs did bench the big 3 tonight)...imagine that.
Portland plays a desperate Golden State team that is fighting for a playoff spot, though. HOWEVER, if the Warriors can win Tuesday night against Dallas and the Clippers lose Tuesday night against Phoenix, the Warriors will clinch the 8th spot in the playoffs and could rest their guys in the finale against Portland. Pretty please? The two teams split their season series, but Golden State holds the tiebreak by virtue of having the better conference record. So, actually, we just need a Phoenix victory OR a Dallas loss tomorrow to help us out on that Golden State/Portland game on Wednesday.
So, if we get that 4-way tie, maybe we get lucky and win the coin toss. 6th would be infinitely better than 10th, regardless of whether or not we get a Top 3 pick. But our chances would go from about 3% of getting a Top 3 pick to almost 20%.
Umm...go Lakers? Yuck.
Position/Team/Record/Lottery Chances
1. Memphis 21-60 25%
2. Boston 24-57 19.9%
3. Milwaukee 28-53 15.6%
4. Atlanta 29-52 11.9%
5. Seattle 31-50 8.8%
6. New York 32-49 6.3%
7. Portland 32-49 4.3%
8. Minnesota 32-49 2.8%
9. Sacramento 33-48 1.7%
10. Charlotte 33-48 1.1%
11. Philly 34-46 0.8%
A win on Wednesday over the Lakers would be devastating, as we could lose the coin flip to Philly (if they lose their last 2 games) and be stuck at 11th with less than a 3% chance at a Top 3 pick. If we lose to L.A., we're basically guaranteed getting in the Top 10. And, if Minnesota, Portland, and New York can pull off wins in THEIR final games, we are looking at a 4-way tie for 6th (Charlotte plays New York on Wednesday). Minnesota would have to beat Memphis, who suddenly is rejuvenated after clinching the #1 spot in the lottery (winning 2 straight over Denver and San Antonio...though the Spurs did bench the big 3 tonight)...imagine that.
Portland plays a desperate Golden State team that is fighting for a playoff spot, though. HOWEVER, if the Warriors can win Tuesday night against Dallas and the Clippers lose Tuesday night against Phoenix, the Warriors will clinch the 8th spot in the playoffs and could rest their guys in the finale against Portland. Pretty please? The two teams split their season series, but Golden State holds the tiebreak by virtue of having the better conference record. So, actually, we just need a Phoenix victory OR a Dallas loss tomorrow to help us out on that Golden State/Portland game on Wednesday.
So, if we get that 4-way tie, maybe we get lucky and win the coin toss. 6th would be infinitely better than 10th, regardless of whether or not we get a Top 3 pick. But our chances would go from about 3% of getting a Top 3 pick to almost 20%.
Umm...go Lakers? Yuck.
Frankly, after dropping from potentially 5th to at least 8th (with lousy chances at a top-3 pick), right now I think I am firmly seated (front row) in the "Who the he** cares at this point" bandwagon....
I know I should, but right now I really don't. We blew the one chance at possibly having a decent pick, we have no cash to spend, and our big $$$ guys are probably immovable objects at this point, so let's go kick some Laker behind and get the season over with.
I seriously doubt we see too many major moves except for maybe Muss getting fired and Ron Artest moved. And we'll draft another 2-3 and have QD play the 5 next year.
Totally agree, I'm just seeing my thread through to the bitter end. If it weren't for feeling responsible, I would have stopped paying attention.
JB_Kings asks:
Yes, and yes. They break the ties for draft order with coin flips, but ties for lottery chances are divided equally. So let's say you're tied for 9th/10th: a coin flip determines whether you get 9th or 10th pick (in both the first and second round). But you're still considered tied for lottery purposes, so they add together the 9th and 10th spots' pingpong balls and divide them equally between the two.
Of course, if you're tied for 9th and 10th, it doesn't matter anyway, because there's no way in hell you're winning the lottery.
Excellent. I did not know that. Let's hope my scenario plays out and we get to a tie for 6th!
nbrans
All-Star
So, by my calculations, if there was a 4 way tie for 6th, each team would have a 3.775% shot at the first pick.
It's the NBA, so expect it to be done in the most complicated manner possible. If you want more complex and convoluted rules, you need to join a chess federation.
10-9n52mustgo
Prospect
Monkey
Well, I am sure we can definately agree that if we got the real Chris Paul it would still not be enough due to that gaping hole in the middle......lol....
Well, I am sure we can definately agree that if we got the real Chris Paul it would still not be enough due to that gaping hole in the middle......lol....
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Yeah, that's tough. But we wasted our win on the stupid Clippers and now, the Lakers have clinced a playoff spot thanks to us. Dang.
A win on Wednesday now would certainly hurt us more than the Lakers.
Gag... go... um... lakers...
Gag... go... um... lakers...
While I understand the benefits of the Kings losing, I will never in my life speak those words... I'll watch reruns on Bravo or something.
Yes, that phrase definitely pushes the limits of good taste. Some boards have profanity filters which display vulgarities as **** instead of printing the entered text. I think we need a custom one, which shows that team as the ***ers.
LOL! I think Bravo has a new show "Shear Genius" which could be more fun.
I'll probably not watch much of the game either.
I think I did root for the ***ers once. I don't remember, but it must have been when they didn't matter any more and were playing the Mavs or Spurs something.
You'd need 1 more * in ***ers and then you'd be set.
****ers
Yeah, I wish we lost to the Clippers and then obviously beat the Lakers so they miss out on the playoffs due to us. Even though this would inevitably cost us lottery position, it'd be worth it in my book. I don't mind the Clippers and/or Warriors going. The Warriors especially deserve to go due to their good play as of late and their long streak of not going, they are also a Norcal Bay Area team so that holds some weight in comparison to the Lakers and a lesser degree the Clips.
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LOL! I think Bravo has a new show "Shear Genius" which could be more fun.
I'll probably not watch much of the game either.
I'm kind of stuck between a rock and a hard spot. I was planning to do the PBP for the ***ers game. I wonder if people would notice if I did a PBP of "Shear Genius" instead? I actually watched the first episode and liked it. In fact, I rank it right up there with "Top Design" and "Project Runway" for quality Bravo programming.
They were 5th, with 28 wins.
rhythmless
Starter
im still trying to be optomistic about all this through the wosses that cost us dearly...
lets all remember that this still is the lottery. no one is guaranteed a spot here or there. a 1-2 percent chance is still that. think positive, maybe something miraculous will happen. if not, well you didnt have anything to lose anyways.
lets all remember that this still is the lottery. no one is guaranteed a spot here or there. a 1-2 percent chance is still that. think positive, maybe something miraculous will happen. if not, well you didnt have anything to lose anyways.
Bricklayer
Don't Make Me Use The Bat
5:30 update:
Charlotte and NY are desperately trying to outstink each other, outcome uncertain, but the score will be low.
Philly is amazingly up by 7 over Toronto at halftime. GO 6ers! (I guess, they've already blown it too badly to be a threat to us.)
As the first quarter approaches its end, Memphis and Minny are about even. GO TIMBERWOLVES!!!
Charlotte and NY are desperately trying to outstink each other, outcome uncertain, but the score will be low.
Philly is amazingly up by 7 over Toronto at halftime. GO 6ers! (I guess, they've already blown it too badly to be a threat to us.)
As the first quarter approaches its end, Memphis and Minny are about even. GO TIMBERWOLVES!!!
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Vlade4GM
All-Star
we're rooting for charlotte right?
