Let's Make the Playoffs! & The State of the Opposition
- Thread starter Bricklayer
- Start date
Can't win if you don't have a horse in the race. What are the chance if the kings winning a series vs the Warriors and moving on if they make the 8 seed? Slim to none. What are the chances of beating the Warriors in the playoffs if they don't make the playoff? ZERO, zilch, nada. They play to win a championship. The next step to achieve that for us or any team is to reach the playoffs. To think there's no point cuz we will get swept is losers mentality. Why try at all. Might as well just forfeit regular season games against gs, Spurs, okc and lac since we prob won't win anyways.
The Spurs don't have a championship team every season nor will Dallas and other perennial playoff teams.
But do they ditch the season just because they can't get to an NBA championship?
Freaking NO.
Playoffs atmosphere let the players and a team experience an atmosphere that would make them want to get back there.
That atmosphere is something DMC has not felt at all.
So while the math still says we have a chance, never go down gentle and just throw it away just because we can't win a championship this year.
Probably you guys are pure analytics without even playing even in Junior basketball leagues.
Playoff atmosphere is like a blend of totally expensive wine. Once you tasted it drinking wines would never be the same. And you keep trying to get another sip of that thing again.
This team clearly lacks that sort of craving on so many games. Give them a taste of a playoff game, and that craving will surely bring a different fire to these players.
Why do teams value players who have playoff experience? Because they need someone to tell the story and hopefully lit a fire.
Ask that question to Shareef and he will tell you what a single playoff game feels like.
The guy got all the stats filled up but never made a playoff until playing with the Kings late in his career. And here he stayed even after his career ended.
But do they ditch the season just because they can't get to an NBA championship?
Freaking NO.
Playoffs atmosphere let the players and a team experience an atmosphere that would make them want to get back there.
That atmosphere is something DMC has not felt at all.
So while the math still says we have a chance, never go down gentle and just throw it away just because we can't win a championship this year.
Probably you guys are pure analytics without even playing even in Junior basketball leagues.
Playoff atmosphere is like a blend of totally expensive wine. Once you tasted it drinking wines would never be the same. And you keep trying to get another sip of that thing again.
This team clearly lacks that sort of craving on so many games. Give them a taste of a playoff game, and that craving will surely bring a different fire to these players.
Why do teams value players who have playoff experience? Because they need someone to tell the story and hopefully lit a fire.
Ask that question to Shareef and he will tell you what a single playoff game feels like.
The guy got all the stats filled up but never made a playoff until playing with the Kings late in his career. And here he stayed even after his career ended.
Even the 76ers fan base are not even optimistic whatever Hinkie is doing now. Why would they be? They got 2 lottery big men that needed to sit down a combined number of 3 seasons doing nothing. And now Hinkie even almost traded their latest big (Okafor) by deadline. Their PG spot is carousel of NBDL players.
We are so done with the draft. Unless Vlade pulls the plug and eventually trade DMC. But until that big guy is here, getting mature and star Free Agents should be the way for me.
One of the best way to get those guys though is having a recent playoff games on the team's belt. Just ask those waived player where they want to go first? Playoff teams.
We are so done with the draft. Unless Vlade pulls the plug and eventually trade DMC. But until that big guy is here, getting mature and star Free Agents should be the way for me.
One of the best way to get those guys though is having a recent playoff games on the team's belt. Just ask those waived player where they want to go first? Playoff teams.
So the situation has not really changed. People are still being silly for no reason.
We swapped the hoped for Memphis win for an actual Dallas win. Still need to beat NOP or surprise, well everyone, including me, by knocking off one of the two SAN/CLE superpowers.
Do that, and then we hit just about the softest schedule patch of the entire season:
@SAN
@NOP <------------need this one
CLE
-------------------------
ORL 27-33
UTH 28-32
@LAL 12-50
NOP 23-37
have to go into those 4 games intending to get a sweep. Even 3-1 hurts, although you stay breathing. But you have to say screw it, go for the sweep, because if you get it you have given yourself a remote chance. Houston is the target now. Utah hasn't ignited, Houston is below .500. Who knows, maybe they finish 40-42. With the NOP away game and a sweep you get yourself to 30-37 needing a 10-5 close to reach 40.
But look who we play for the next 5:
@DET 31-30
@NYK 25-37
@Chi 30-30
@MIN 19-42
PHX 15-46
That's 9 games in a row where the very best team we play (recordwise) is the 31-30 Pistons. They are also the only team on that list that would currently make the playoffs, as an 8th seed.
And the 10th game? Dallas. At home.
Its improbable. Against that schedule its simply not impossible.
We swapped the hoped for Memphis win for an actual Dallas win. Still need to beat NOP or surprise, well everyone, including me, by knocking off one of the two SAN/CLE superpowers.
Do that, and then we hit just about the softest schedule patch of the entire season:
@SAN
@NOP <------------need this one
CLE
-------------------------
ORL 27-33
UTH 28-32
@LAL 12-50
NOP 23-37
have to go into those 4 games intending to get a sweep. Even 3-1 hurts, although you stay breathing. But you have to say screw it, go for the sweep, because if you get it you have given yourself a remote chance. Houston is the target now. Utah hasn't ignited, Houston is below .500. Who knows, maybe they finish 40-42. With the NOP away game and a sweep you get yourself to 30-37 needing a 10-5 close to reach 40.
But look who we play for the next 5:
@DET 31-30
@NYK 25-37
@Chi 30-30
@MIN 19-42
PHX 15-46
That's 9 games in a row where the very best team we play (recordwise) is the 31-30 Pistons. They are also the only team on that list that would currently make the playoffs, as an 8th seed.
And the 10th game? Dallas. At home.
Its improbable. Against that schedule its simply not impossible.
Last edited:
There is the strength of remaining games too for what it is worth:
http://www.playoffstatus.com/nba/westernsosrg.html
We have the easiest schedule, Portland, Dallas and Memphis almost the toughest, while Utah and Houston are mid of the road.
Good chance that all 5 teams we have some chance to overcome will all be quite close at the end of the day.
http://www.playoffstatus.com/nba/westernsosrg.html
We have the easiest schedule, Portland, Dallas and Memphis almost the toughest, while Utah and Houston are mid of the road.
Good chance that all 5 teams we have some chance to overcome will all be quite close at the end of the day.
Everyone was talking about our incredibly tough schedule in late Feb.-early March. Thankfully, it hasn't been much easier for Utah.
They lost to Memphis on the road 94-88 to lose their fifth game in a row. They are now 28-33. Their next few games:
3/5 @ NOP
3/8 vs. ATL
3/9 @ GSW
3/11 vs. WAS
Considering how much better the Wizards have been since the AS break and how NOP has been improving, I could see them going 1-3 here, putting them at 29-36. If we can go 2-2 during this time (@ SAS, @ NOP, vs. CLE, vs. ORL) we'll be 27-37. Then we play the Jazz at home, which is most likely a must-win. A win there and we are practically tied with Utah.
Houston during this stretch has this:
3/5 @ CHI
3/6 @ TOR
3/9 @ PHI
3/11 @ BOS
3/12 @ CHA
Really tough stretch. Potential for 1-4 but let's say they go 2-3. That puts them at 32-34.
If this whole scenario plays out like this, we are only three losses back of eigth place as we enter the easiest part of our schedule.
There's still hope guys.
They lost to Memphis on the road 94-88 to lose their fifth game in a row. They are now 28-33. Their next few games:
3/5 @ NOP
3/8 vs. ATL
3/9 @ GSW
3/11 vs. WAS
Considering how much better the Wizards have been since the AS break and how NOP has been improving, I could see them going 1-3 here, putting them at 29-36. If we can go 2-2 during this time (@ SAS, @ NOP, vs. CLE, vs. ORL) we'll be 27-37. Then we play the Jazz at home, which is most likely a must-win. A win there and we are practically tied with Utah.
Houston during this stretch has this:
3/5 @ CHI
3/6 @ TOR
3/9 @ PHI
3/11 @ BOS
3/12 @ CHA
Really tough stretch. Potential for 1-4 but let's say they go 2-3. That puts them at 32-34.
If this whole scenario plays out like this, we are only three losses back of eigth place as we enter the easiest part of our schedule.
There's still hope guys.
.500 is right on the edge of extreme possibility for us. While its true I think we are playing the schedule rather than the other teams chasing #8, it still could make a nice difference if they keep stumbling and #8 can be won at 40-42, or ever 39-43. Just those one or two extra losses could be enough to make our math work.
The good news is we've already beaten Utah twice with only one more match-up to go so we own the tiebreaker there regardless of what happens on March 13th. If Utah pulls back into the 8 seed we just need to tie with them by the end of the season to take their spot. If Houston holds on, we've split the first two games already and play them (on the road) for our last game of the season. Whoever wins that game gets the tiebreaker as well. That means we just need to be 1 game back by that point and then win that final game to take their spot.
So ... we're 2 1/2 games back of Utah right now to tie them and take their spot or we're 3 1/2 games back of Houston to force a "winner takes all" final game on April 13th to get theirs. It won't take a miracle to make up 3 1/2 games, just a month and a half of competent competitive basketball. Let's make it happen!
So ... we're 2 1/2 games back of Utah right now to tie them and take their spot or we're 3 1/2 games back of Houston to force a "winner takes all" final game on April 13th to get theirs. It won't take a miracle to make up 3 1/2 games, just a month and a half of competent competitive basketball. Let's make it happen!
I'd rather play the Warriors in the first round than the Spurs anyway. DeMarcus always struggles against San Antonio and the games won't even be worth watching if he can't get anything going. At least with Golden State the in-state rivalry has the potential to push us to play at a higher level. Drawing either team in the first round is basically a guaranteed sweep and only one of those 4 games is even close -- but that's not what we're playing for right now. We're playing to get the monkey off our backs and make it to the playoffs for the first time in 10 years. How it happens or what happens when we get there are problems for the off-season.
PS -- Having this countdown to the playoffs discussion hold steady at the top of the message board for months is a million times better than slogging through another "Lottery Watch" tanking thread with Lins and Wosses marked off game by game. We've been there and come up empty so many times now that I can't even fake enthusiasm for the draft lottery anymore.
PS -- Having this countdown to the playoffs discussion hold steady at the top of the message board for months is a million times better than slogging through another "Lottery Watch" tanking thread with Lins and Wosses marked off game by game. We've been there and come up empty so many times now that I can't even fake enthusiasm for the draft lottery anymore.
Last edited:
You're right... looks like I missed a game early in the season. We've played Houston three times already and lost two of them. So that means we do have to be 4 1/2 games better than Houston over the next 21 because a tie isn't enough, we have to pass them and finish a game ahead. Basically we need to tie them by April 13th and then beat them on the road. Still doable but definitely a much tougher task.
Last edited:
So if we operate under some of your guys assumptions that 40 wins gets us to the dance, here's what teams ahead of us would have to play to do to match that
Mavericks: Current- 33-29. Need them to go 7-13 the rest of the way.
tough games:
Clippers 2x
Warriors 2x
Blazers 2x
Cavs
Pistons 2x
Pacers
Grizzlies
Jazz
Spurs
Rockets 2x
(us)
Hard to imagine them being this bad the rest of the way, but not impossible. Basically every game they have left will be a fight. Also end the year with a Rockets-Grizz-Clippers-Jazz-Spurs stretch.
Portland: Current 33-30. Need them to go 7-12 to match 40
tough games:
@Det
Wiz
Warriors 2x
Mavs 2x
Thunder 2x
Spurs
Clippers
(us)
Boston
Miami
Again, not impossible. They do end the season with 2 cake games against the Wolves and Nuggets. But Portland has been playing well above their talent level and should hit some serious regression with these upcoming games
Rockets: Current: 30-31. Need them to go 10-11 to match 40.
Tough games:
Chicago 2x
Toronto 2x
@Boston
Mem
Clippers
@Atl
OKC 2x
Utah
Pacers
Cleveland
Mavericks
Brutal stretch for them with the Hornets and Wolves as the only 2 games in the above listed that you would favor Houston in. They do finish the year with a cake schedule of PHX, LAL, the Wolves and us, but I'd be pretty shocked if they were still relevant at that point.
Utah- Current: 28-32. Need them to go 12-10 to match 40 .
Tough games:
ATL
Warriors 2x
Wizards
(us 2x)
Cavs
@Chicago
Rockets
Thunder
Spurs
Clippers
Mavericks
Most likely team to get the 8th They certainly have tough games left, but they also have 2 vs the Lakers, 2 vs the Suns, Denver, 2 vs the Wolves, and the Bucks and Pelicans on the road.
Sac- 25-35. Need 15-7 to hit 40.
Tough games:
@Spurs
@Pelicans
Cavs
Jazz
Pelicans
@Pistons
@Chicago
Mavs
@Portland
Wizards
Miami
Portland
Thunder
@Rockets
We don't play nearly the same team quality as everyone above us. The biggest hurdle really is taking care of teams that are basically right around where we are at .500. Pretty much have to go 5-0 in our 5 remaining vs Portland, Jazz, Rockets and Mavs and take at least 1 in our games vs the Spurs, Cavs and Thunder.
Doing this made me incredibly frustrated with this season knowing how many games we've choked away this year. Hell, even if we had won 2 of the 6 or 7 games that we flat out gave away we'd be in a great position to make the playoffs. Not impossible to still get there, but we pretty much have to play flawless basketball from here on out and can't lose a single "gimme" game.
Mavericks: Current- 33-29. Need them to go 7-13 the rest of the way.
tough games:
Clippers 2x
Warriors 2x
Blazers 2x
Cavs
Pistons 2x
Pacers
Grizzlies
Jazz
Spurs
Rockets 2x
(us)
Hard to imagine them being this bad the rest of the way, but not impossible. Basically every game they have left will be a fight. Also end the year with a Rockets-Grizz-Clippers-Jazz-Spurs stretch.
Portland: Current 33-30. Need them to go 7-12 to match 40
tough games:
@Det
Wiz
Warriors 2x
Mavs 2x
Thunder 2x
Spurs
Clippers
(us)
Boston
Miami
Again, not impossible. They do end the season with 2 cake games against the Wolves and Nuggets. But Portland has been playing well above their talent level and should hit some serious regression with these upcoming games
Rockets: Current: 30-31. Need them to go 10-11 to match 40.
Tough games:
Chicago 2x
Toronto 2x
@Boston
Mem
Clippers
@Atl
OKC 2x
Utah
Pacers
Cleveland
Mavericks
Brutal stretch for them with the Hornets and Wolves as the only 2 games in the above listed that you would favor Houston in. They do finish the year with a cake schedule of PHX, LAL, the Wolves and us, but I'd be pretty shocked if they were still relevant at that point.
Utah- Current: 28-32. Need them to go 12-10 to match 40 .
Tough games:
ATL
Warriors 2x
Wizards
(us 2x)
Cavs
@Chicago
Rockets
Thunder
Spurs
Clippers
Mavericks
Most likely team to get the 8th They certainly have tough games left, but they also have 2 vs the Lakers, 2 vs the Suns, Denver, 2 vs the Wolves, and the Bucks and Pelicans on the road.
Sac- 25-35. Need 15-7 to hit 40.
Tough games:
@Spurs
@Pelicans
Cavs
Jazz
Pelicans
@Pistons
@Chicago
Mavs
@Portland
Wizards
Miami
Portland
Thunder
@Rockets
We don't play nearly the same team quality as everyone above us. The biggest hurdle really is taking care of teams that are basically right around where we are at .500. Pretty much have to go 5-0 in our 5 remaining vs Portland, Jazz, Rockets and Mavs and take at least 1 in our games vs the Spurs, Cavs and Thunder.
Doing this made me incredibly frustrated with this season knowing how many games we've choked away this year. Hell, even if we had won 2 of the 6 or 7 games that we flat out gave away we'd be in a great position to make the playoffs. Not impossible to still get there, but we pretty much have to play flawless basketball from here on out and can't lose a single "gimme" game.