[Game] Kings vs Suns, Tuesday Nov. 19, 7 PM PT/10 PM ET

#1
My initial projections have the Suns winning 113 to 103.7. When factoring a back to back for the Suns (-2 points), a home court advantage for the Kings (+2 points for the Kings), and a two possession (-4 point for the Suns) defensive score adjustment to account for the Kings recent defensive play, I have the Suns winning 107 to the Kings 105.7. It is effectively a pick'm game.

Vegas opened the spread with the Kings as favorites at -1.5, but the public has since moved the line to -2.5. This aligns with my predictions.

If I were playing, I would play the money line for the Kings. And, for the record, I believe the Kings will win this game.

The Key Stats follow:

1. Ricky Rubio is worth his weight in gold for the Suns. This is reflected in the Suns 27% assists advantage relative to the Kings. The Suns assisting at 19% better than the league average while the Kings assisting at -8% relative to the league average. Keep in mind, these are assists registered. It doesn't tally secondary and tertiary assists, which often becomes cultural and contagious.

2. The Kings have a gigantic advantage on the offensive boards. 31% to be specific. With the Suns having a -27% offensive boarding deficit relative to the league while the Kings have a 4% offensive boarding advantage vs the league.

3. All other categories are relatively close. With the only other category above 10% being 3 pointers given (which is impacted as much by who they've played rather than how they've played).

Key Matchups:

1. CoJo and Bogi on Rubio.
2. Holmes on Baynes. Baynes has been playing really well.
3. Buddy vs. Dummy (which should be a mandatory disclaimer for all Kings games going forward).

Go Kings!
 
Last edited:
#3
Jason Anderson @JandersonSacBee
Kings: OUT–Marvin Bagley III (thumb), De’Aaron Fox (ankle). PROBABLE–Trevor Ariza (groin), Caleb Swanigan (ankle). Suns: OUT–Deandre Ayton (suspended), Ty Jerome (ankle). QUESTIONABLE–Ricky Rubio (back), Aron Baynes (hip). PROBABLE–Frank Kaminsky (hip), Dario Saric (knee).
 
#4
Jason Anderson @JandersonSacBee
Kings: OUT–Marvin Bagley III (thumb), De’Aaron Fox (ankle). PROBABLE–Trevor Ariza (groin), Caleb Swanigan (ankle). Suns: OUT–Deandre Ayton (suspended), Ty Jerome (ankle). QUESTIONABLE–Ricky Rubio (back), Aron Baynes (hip). PROBABLE–Frank Kaminsky (hip), Dario Saric (knee).
Big if they're both out. The line will likely move to Kings -6 or -6.5 with both out.
 
#8
Key Matchups:

1. CoJo and Bogi on Rubio.
2. Holmes on Baynes. Baynes has been playing really well.
3. Buddy vs. Dummy (which should be a mandatory disclaimer for all Kings games going forward).
I believe CoJo will defend Booker. Buddy, Bogdan will check Rubio.
 
#11
Not sure about a win, although I want one bad after the first game, but I am definitely expecting a much more competitive game. If Rubio is out, that’s a big loss for them.
 
#13
I believe CoJo will defend Booker. Buddy, Bogdan will check Rubio.
You may be right. I think Booker may be a bit too tall for Cojo. If so, he'll likely just back him down like he used to do to Buddy. But we'll see, especially since Cojo was guarding Lebron at times during the Lakers game.
 
#14
You may be right. I think Booker may be a bit too tall for Cojo. If so, he'll likely just back him down like he used to do to Buddy. But we'll see, especially since Cojo was guarding Lebron at times during the Lakers game.
I don't think he will be able to back Cojo down. He held his own against Lebron. I always want CoJo on the best guard, don't care who it is.
 
#15
Looking forward to catching this one. Revenge game. Momentum game. Chance to move up a slot in the standings.

I hope Buddy can give us another Buckets game. Also, Booker annoys me for no discernible reason, but at an early age I accepted the fact that I have flaws. :)
 
#16
If Rubio can’t play, you guys are win this in a massacre. The Suns without Rubio are basically same as last season’s Suns. Especially on the 2nd night of a b2b.

Hope for a clean game without any more injuries adding on from tonight’s game.
 
#17
Too bad we can't break Ayton's hand as part of that revenge.
I think some of us have forgotten that Ayton hurt three of our guys in that first game. I would rather he be playing tonight so revenge can be sweet. But you can’t always get what you want... so I’ll take the revenge we need.
 

Kingster

Hall of Famer
#21
Oubre is the key guy for the Suns. Barnes, Ariza and the rest of the defensive crew need to defend him without putting him on the line. Booker will get his, but that's ok if Oubre's shooting efficiency is kept down.
 
#28
As a Kings fan even I must admit that we will lose this game, for beating the Suns would throw the universe out of balance. Kings cough up a substantial lead the the Suns. Suns 122 - Kings 115.