My initial projections have the Suns winning 113 to 103.7. When factoring a back to back for the Suns (-2 points), a home court advantage for the Kings (+2 points for the Kings), and a two possession (-4 point for the Suns) defensive score adjustment to account for the Kings recent defensive play, I have the Suns winning 107 to the Kings 105.7. It is effectively a pick'm game.
Vegas opened the spread with the Kings as favorites at -1.5, but the public has since moved the line to -2.5. This aligns with my predictions.
If I were playing, I would play the money line for the Kings. And, for the record, I believe the Kings will win this game.
The Key Stats follow:
1. Ricky Rubio is worth his weight in gold for the Suns. This is reflected in the Suns 27% assists advantage relative to the Kings. The Suns assisting at 19% better than the league average while the Kings assisting at -8% relative to the league average. Keep in mind, these are assists registered. It doesn't tally secondary and tertiary assists, which often becomes cultural and contagious.
2. The Kings have a gigantic advantage on the offensive boards. 31% to be specific. With the Suns having a -27% offensive boarding deficit relative to the league while the Kings have a 4% offensive boarding advantage vs the league.
3. All other categories are relatively close. With the only other category above 10% being 3 pointers given (which is impacted as much by who they've played rather than how they've played).
Key Matchups:
1. CoJo and Bogi on Rubio.
2. Holmes on Baynes. Baynes has been playing really well.
3. Buddy vs. Dummy (which should be a mandatory disclaimer for all Kings games going forward).
Go Kings!
Vegas opened the spread with the Kings as favorites at -1.5, but the public has since moved the line to -2.5. This aligns with my predictions.
If I were playing, I would play the money line for the Kings. And, for the record, I believe the Kings will win this game.
The Key Stats follow:
1. Ricky Rubio is worth his weight in gold for the Suns. This is reflected in the Suns 27% assists advantage relative to the Kings. The Suns assisting at 19% better than the league average while the Kings assisting at -8% relative to the league average. Keep in mind, these are assists registered. It doesn't tally secondary and tertiary assists, which often becomes cultural and contagious.
2. The Kings have a gigantic advantage on the offensive boards. 31% to be specific. With the Suns having a -27% offensive boarding deficit relative to the league while the Kings have a 4% offensive boarding advantage vs the league.
3. All other categories are relatively close. With the only other category above 10% being 3 pointers given (which is impacted as much by who they've played rather than how they've played).
Key Matchups:
1. CoJo and Bogi on Rubio.
2. Holmes on Baynes. Baynes has been playing really well.
3. Buddy vs. Dummy (which should be a mandatory disclaimer for all Kings games going forward).
Go Kings!
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