No no. Every bit of information we gain puts us in a better place to judge than we were before. You don't just keep on working off of pre-draft predictions after you have had a draft and a summer league. You don't just keep on working on summer league info once you've had a training camp. you don't keep on working on training camp info once you are into the regular season and so on.
Drafts always have an element of crap shoot, with guys everybody KNOWS are going to be studs falling on their faces every year (see Ben McLemore or Thomas Robinson), and guys everybody KNOWS will be busts, blowing up anyway (see Andre Drummond or Thon Maker as a possibility this year). This year Skal certainly looks like a possibility for the second sort of status. We've now seen him post-college, and whatever the issues he had in college become less important. He's in a new system, he's older, and he looks like he has the potential to be a BRILLIANT #28 pick. Calling him "extremely raw" after seeing him shine with an advanced skillset in SL is just being dogmatic.. He could easily turn out to be the steal of the draft.
Similarly at a lesser level, Malachi also showed good potential for a #22 level pick. Only the Big Papa pick can really be assaulted right now based upon LATEST information, and on that front it feels like we sort of got trapped into it. Our preferred guys were gone, we didn't believe in Chriss, so we traded back. Then #13 comes up and we STILL didn't like our choices and tried to trade back again with Detroit, but couldn't get a deal done. So we took Papa. That's the pick/thinking you can go after with Baldwin or whoever.
If we had wanted GUARANTEED help this year we should have just traded the pick. Even if we had kept our original #8, Chriss was the accepted choice at our spot, and he's as raw as the rest.
It's a crapshoot, I'm not arguing with your points at all because I actually agree with some of them. My biggest turn off from this draft is the fact that Vlade isn't really showing a very clear direction of where he wants to go with this roster and the team moving forward. At 13, he drafts Papagiannis who doesn't compliment Cousins at all, and they can't coexist. Did we really draft a backup C at 13? Or was this a draft move for insurance in case Cousins leaves? Then, he tries telling the media that Papagiannis will have a big impact for the Kings day 1 like WCS did, but Willie was 22 and spent 3 years in Kentucky. On the other hand, Papagiannis played for one of the best teams in Europe, but he didn't play a lot of minutes and was a backup. Watching tape, Papa was extremely raw and slow. In SL, he didn't look like he had a NBA body yet. He looked slow footed and despite his 7'2 240(listed weight, but it's pretty obvious he's at least 260...) frame, he had trouble backing up guys much smaller than him in the post. Also, for a guy his size, his rebounding was extremely underwhelming. Vlade told the media he expects Papagiannis to be able to contribute immediately, but I don't know if that's realistic.
Drafted Richardson at 22. I think it's a bit more clear that Richardson is raw and will need time to develop his body, IQ/decision making, game, etc.
Drafting Skal at 28 really seals the deal. He has an amazing upside, but he's the biggest project in this draft right now. The only translatable tool he has right now is his shooting. Everything else will need to be developed.
By now, you can clearly see that none of these 1st rounders would actually be able to contribute for a team chasing for the playoffs. However, that's a big assumption for me.. the assumption that the Kings are aiming for the playoffs this year. With these draft picks, it seems like Vlade is planning for the future 3-4 years from now, rather than focusing on now. It clearly upsetted Cousins with our 13th pick, so you do wonder if this is something that could be a deciding factor for Cousins in 2018.
Draft= for future.
Now let's look at Free Agency.... we just signed a bunch of vets to short term deals that can expire the year Cousins' contract is up. Our biggest hole was SG and PG. They addressed SG with Afflalo. However, they then signed Garrett Temple who's a SG/PG. We have not made any moves yet for a PG. This leads me to think that Temple might go forward as our backup PG. While Temple is a good defender, he's not a playmaker and with a bench of McLemore/Casspi/Barnes/Tolliver/Koufos, 4/5 need shots created for them. In FA, we brought in solid vets, but no impactful players who can truly move the needle for us.
FA= defensive vets at their peak/decline who's contracts are centered around the time Cousins' contract ends?
If the Kings knew this was a weak FA PG group, it begs me to ask why we didn't take a PG with 1 of our 3 1st round draft picks.
I don't really understand the direction here by Vlade. We use all of our draft prospects on players who will not be able to effectively contribute until Cousins' contract is up. BUT, we use FA on vets who's contracts expire at the same time as Cousins. Is this a semi playoff push? Is this a conservative attempt at finally getting a decent core around Cousins? We're going all in Cousins...but at the same time, we're not?
It's just not clear about what this FO is doing. It's obvious that we want to try at least 1 more year with Cousins, but if we're really going to try 1 more year with him, is starting off the season with Temple-Afflalo-Gay-WCS-Cousins really going to be able to move the needle for us? Is it really? We could've drafted guys who could come in this year and have a big impact for the team. This is weird to me. Especially since last year we opted for a guy with a lower ceiling, but higher floor because he could immediately come in and contribute, WCS. Vlade basically inferred last year that he would not draft Porzingis if he was available at 6 because he was too raw and wouldn't be able to contribute immediately. While WCS has been a nice pick, he's far from a perfect fit next to Cousins. His offense is extremely limited as he can't score 3ft away from the basket. Let's ignore BPA for a second. Let's look at BIGS who would actually fit a bit better next to Cousins that we passed on. Mylers Turner, and Trey Lyles. Both of these guys would fit MUCH better next to Cousins overall than Willie would. Both also have more relatively higher ceilings than Willie does. Turner is an all around PF/C who can create his own shot, shoot the 3, rebound, block shots, etc. Lyles can create his own shot, shoot the 3, rebound, and pass the ball. Anyways, the Kings passed on both of these guys. Both of these guys were considered more on the "raw" side, while WCS was widely regarded as "NBA ready". Do you think it's highly probable that Vlade decided to pass on the potential of both Turner and Lyles because Willie was going to be able to contribute immediately? Let's bring back BPA in that draft regardless of position(I'm pretty sure we took Papagiannis at 13 this year regardless of position too). There was Emmanuel Mudiay, Justise Winslow, Stanley Johnson, Devin Booker, and Cameron Payne on top of Lyles/Turner. All of these players could've been BPA because they have higher ceilings than Willie. It's leaning more and more towards the Kings drafting Willie instead of all these other guys because he would be able to bring an impact to the team Day 1. This is supported by the fact that we basically packaged Stauskas+JT+Landry+pick swaps+pick for cap space to sign Rajon Rondo+Belinelli. We were looking to win immediately.
1 year later, Vlade does the complete opposite in the draft with not 1, not 2, but 3 picks in the 1st round. Did Vlade suddenly decide to change his entire approach? Are we starting off on a fresh new slate? Are we hitting the reset button?But wait... the draft moves paired with our FA moves are extremely conflicting. They do not correlate with one another. Are we going to keep Cousins, or are we not? Is the plan to build around him? Or is it not? We brought in FAs to compliment him, but our draftees are NOT ready to compliment a Cousins in his prime. I see no real direction right now. There might be a plan in place, but after being told there's a plan year after year, why are we still failing? This all sounds like a long rant, because, well, it might be. Especially after 9 years of being the laughing stock of the NBA, nothing really makes sense about this team right now.
I might be overreacting, but who wouldn't be skeptical of this team after nearly a decade of irrelevancy?