If we play the minutes right, isn’t the QO supposed to be around $7 mil?
That would happen if Bagley does not meet "starter criteria". Those criteria are based on EITHER starting 41 games, or playing 2000 minutes in this season, or in the average of this season and last season.
BUT - because last season was a 72-game season and not an 82-game season, I suspect that the average over the last two seasons will be adjusted to compensate. Normally, a total of 82 starts or 4000 minutes in the last two seasons of the rookie deal would be sufficient to meet starter criteria, but I'd guess those will be adjusted by a factor of (72+82)/(82+82), which is a factor of 0.939 and would result in a requirement of 77 starts or 3756 minutes.
Bagley is currently at (not counting tonight):
44 starts and 1405 minutes over last two seasons (needs:
33 starts or 2351 minutes)
2 starts and 293 minutes this season (needs: 39 starts or
1707 minutes)
We have 47 games left (counting today) so Bagley will reach starter criteria with 33 starts in those 47 games (got one today) or 36.3 minutes per game.
So, basically, it's all about the starts at this point.