KINGS PICKING 4TH IN 2022 NBA DRAFT!
- Thread starter Tetsujin
- Start date
- Status
Yeah, the Kings context is DRASTICALLY different from last off-season. We had a promising rookie Hali, Fox ascending and that was about it. Not a lot talent and basically all of it capped out (Barnes, Holmes, Buddy, Bagley).
While you can't totally play into "need" with draft capital, Sabonis impending FA has to be taken into account. If he walks in 2 years, none of these discussions will matter; this team build will have failed. And while Monte has shown to be a generally very smart guy, he knows his ticket his now tied to making Sabonis/Fox work as fast as possible; is adding another ball-dominant guard with shaky shooting/defense to a crowded young back-court a sure-fire way to make this team better?
But yeah. If Ivey is a 92 and Murray is an 81... you take Ivey and don't look back. But if Ivey is an 86 and Murray is an 84? Give me the positional scarcity that directly addresses a majority of our team's weaknesses and can play with the established core.
While you can't totally play into "need" with draft capital, Sabonis impending FA has to be taken into account. If he walks in 2 years, none of these discussions will matter; this team build will have failed. And while Monte has shown to be a generally very smart guy, he knows his ticket his now tied to making Sabonis/Fox work as fast as possible; is adding another ball-dominant guard with shaky shooting/defense to a crowded young back-court a sure-fire way to make this team better?
But yeah. If Ivey is a 92 and Murray is an 81... you take Ivey and don't look back. But if Ivey is an 86 and Murray is an 84? Give me the positional scarcity that directly addresses a majority of our team's weaknesses and can play with the established core.
I appreciate like 95% of your insight, but man you're just wrong on this one. The Kings have been waiting for a DDV type roleplayer since they drafted Cuz; a dude perfectly suited to be a super support player and makes the team better whether or not he's shooting the ball. Dude was an analytics superstar his previous 2 season with MIL and we saw most of that impact during his stint with the Kings. And it's safe to say Monte didn't go trade for him 2 years after the Bogi debacle at his career low point production wise... just to let him walk in RFA.
Man, sounds familiar though doesn't it? Last time it started with an M and ended with an -arvin. 
Then why was he traded for a washed up Ibaka? I'm telling you, if you continue to overvalue that type of role player with no guarantees of it being the difference? You end up in trouble. I'm not saying Donte is not worth that deal to someone, but is he worth that deal to the Kings right now with all the factors I mentioned considered? I had some of the same conversations about Holmes and he was a starter at that point, Donte might not be. As Holmes isn't now and they better get him out ASAP as a result. If they can't dump Holmes and they have to dump Donte they likely just lost Barnes AND a full max slot. It's not worth the risk and the reward is too high.
EDIT: OK, I was thinking about a way that Donte could go from preferably on a 1 year deal to a great re-signing long term. IF the Kings were able to package Davion/4 to get up to 2 and select one of the big 3 bigs, then all of a sudden he becomes necessary. As it is, if the Kings go Ivey then all minutes at PG/SG are spoken for with Davion/Fox/Ivey which IMO would be awesome and tops in the league talent wise. Out of the total 96 minutes you can still get Fox and Ivey starters minutes and Davion major 6th man/starter minutes as well. TD did show some ability to play SF so I think he doesn't get left out in the cold but his minutes are going to get hit. Then even if they don't go Ivey, are there enough minutes to go around for Fox/Davion/TD/Holiday/Donte at PG/SG to make a potential 3-5th option worth a full MLE contract so that if you had to trade them for space you could? It's still a gamble but possible. My prediction on Holmes is if he is staring at 15 mpg as a backup on his current deal you have found your new anchor and good luck finding someone willing to send no salary back at you. You simply can't risk having 2 of those types on your roster heading into a max space year unless you are officially a contender already.
EDIT: OK, I was thinking about a way that Donte could go from preferably on a 1 year deal to a great re-signing long term. IF the Kings were able to package Davion/4 to get up to 2 and select one of the big 3 bigs, then all of a sudden he becomes necessary. As it is, if the Kings go Ivey then all minutes at PG/SG are spoken for with Davion/Fox/Ivey which IMO would be awesome and tops in the league talent wise. Out of the total 96 minutes you can still get Fox and Ivey starters minutes and Davion major 6th man/starter minutes as well. TD did show some ability to play SF so I think he doesn't get left out in the cold but his minutes are going to get hit. Then even if they don't go Ivey, are there enough minutes to go around for Fox/Davion/TD/Holiday/Donte at PG/SG to make a potential 3-5th option worth a full MLE contract so that if you had to trade them for space you could? It's still a gamble but possible. My prediction on Holmes is if he is staring at 15 mpg as a backup on his current deal you have found your new anchor and good luck finding someone willing to send no salary back at you. You simply can't risk having 2 of those types on your roster heading into a max space year unless you are officially a contender already.
Last edited:
I don’t want either chair to be honest but if they go Ivey they need to trade Fox on Draft Day. Who likes playing with De’Aaron Fox? Serious question. And don’t give me this Sabonis and Fox looked like besties BS — everyone is happy in the honeymoon phase. He’s shown himself to be a bootleg Russel Westbrook without any of the intangibles like hustle and heart and tenacity and DOG. Who the f%#* wants to play with that? We’ve watched for years now and can someone name a single player who he has built a clear on court rappor with? Who has he made better? Name one player where they are clearly a better player because of a dynamic that fox uniquely brings to the game. Has he unlocked something in anyone’s game that y’all have seen? Holmes owes Haliburton about 30% of the cheddar from his contract and that was Hali’s first season with limited minutes. This Take the best player and figure out the rest later only works in a vacuum if you care about maximizing asset management. It all hinges on your assets maintaining a sense of professionalism by competing with the new talent. Last time we applied that technique we were met by a completely uninspired Fox who responded by pouting and sulking like a passive aggressive child which drove down his value essentially leveraging Monte to have to move the asset that was peaking thus limiting our options. As for Ivey: impressive athleticism, unimpressive basketball player. When I watch him play I think WOW what could Shanahan do with him. For a coaches son he has the fewest intangibles I’ve ever seen. Eye-popping athleticism, undeniablely electric and sooo average to mediocre in sooooo many areas. The effort he displayed on defense in a win or go home tournament game was disgusting. If Monte goes with him then I’ll lie to myself and say he could work with Davion but I absolutely do not believe he can work with Fox. Maybe Mike Brown is the elixir and Fox can show a sliver of heart on the defensive end again. Maybe the Sabonis connection is real. I’ll be more than happy to eat crow if either of those are the case.
I'm finding it hard to basically sell myself on anyone past Chet and Jabari. This draft kinda sucks for depth and overall just kinda sucks until further notice. I guess Ivey is BPA at 4 but he's probably the worst top guard prospect we've seen in years. You put him in an overall draft with all the other recent top guard prospects at the time of their drafts and I think he pretty clearly goes behind Fultz/Ball/Fox.... and Luka/Trae.... and Ja.... and Edwards/Ball.... and Cade/Green/Suggs.
And beyond that, I see little different between Murray and the prospects we could get at 10. Hell, I don't see much difference between Ivey and those prospects either; I don't put him on the 1st tier of prospects.
Combine that general weakness with the direction we're going with being committed to Fox/Sabonis, and this might be the most irrelevant draft pick this franchise has made in years.
And beyond that, I see little different between Murray and the prospects we could get at 10. Hell, I don't see much difference between Ivey and those prospects either; I don't put him on the 1st tier of prospects.
Combine that general weakness with the direction we're going with being committed to Fox/Sabonis, and this might be the most irrelevant draft pick this franchise has made in years.
All of this discussion boils down to one thing. Kings are drafting high in the lottery, but their aspirations are to win immediately. Those things don't mix and it's a recipe to ruin your high lottery pick by putting limitations on him early in order to preserve a couple of extra wins.
The best thing that could happen for the Kings is for one of the top 3 to take a flyer on Ivey. Otherwise, the Kings have to take Ivey or even Sharpe if they have vetted him and think he's the best talent. But if the Kings clip the young guys wings early in his career because they want to win now, everybody loses.
The best thing that could happen for the Kings is for one of the top 3 to take a flyer on Ivey. Otherwise, the Kings have to take Ivey or even Sharpe if they have vetted him and think he's the best talent. But if the Kings clip the young guys wings early in his career because they want to win now, everybody loses.
But again, that "winning" is not out of reach. Look at the news from the Nuggets today, they're basically saying, "This is it, ring or bust". Vivek is basically saying "can we be mediocre play in 7/8th seed range now?" and with better young prospects you can get better moving forward. Murray, Ivey, Chet, none are needed to get to the play in window IMO and if they are then yes, this is a ship traveling up stream the wrong way because that means their star duo ain't cutting it. They should have just rebuild at the deadline.
There is basically no chance that the three best players in this draft go 1-2-3. It's not a 3 or 4 player draft, not really. It's a 58 player draft and the best players are scattered all over the place. 5 years from now somebody we're not even talking about could be an All-NBA level player. And anyone who is talking about guys who "pop" on video -- you're not even looking at the right thing. That's like 5% of what it means to be a great player. What you should be looking at is who thinks the game at a high level, who is dedicated to working on their weaknesses, who actually wants to be an elite player, who has skills that fit within an NBA offense, and who is capable of elevating their level of play when the situation demands it.
I think the big point that most people seem to overlook with the draft is that we're not trying to draft a rookie of the year. That's year 1 of a pro career which should last for 10+ years. We're trying to draft someone who gets better every year that they're in the league. Those are the only guys who even have a chance at making multiple All-Star games and leading teams to championships. The mental aspect is as important or more important than the physical aspect.
I think the big point that most people seem to overlook with the draft is that we're not trying to draft a rookie of the year. That's year 1 of a pro career which should last for 10+ years. We're trying to draft someone who gets better every year that they're in the league. Those are the only guys who even have a chance at making multiple All-Star games and leading teams to championships. The mental aspect is as important or more important than the physical aspect.
I think you’ve actually hit on an interesting point. Of course every team wants to move up in the draft through the lottery, but for this team, the biggest benefit may have been saving the team from a foolish win now decision. Picking 7, 8 or 9 doesn’t present the same pressure to ultimately hit a home run through the draft. Much easier to justify a trade for solid, but not spectacular, win now pieces that will soon be regretted in the long term. I believe that Monte has an easier time convincing Vivek that the talent at 4 is too good, even if it will require some more patience. I was actually somewhat relieved to see Vivek sitting next to Monte at the Ivey workout because at least it signals that they are serious about taking the pick.
I can guarantee you that Monte doesn't care what the consensus is among pundits. Most GMs don't even bother looking at the mock drafts because each team makes their own board based off of their own scouts who have far more time and access than any of the pundits. Everyone is going to rate players differently. Different teams may value different skills more than others. In the end, you trust the work your team has put in and take the best player on your board. Who that is for the Kings is unknown at the moment.
It will be interesting to see who they pick. I know many around here feel there's a top 3 or 4 players in this draft. I look at it differently. I think there are 2 players in a tier by themselves (Holmgren & Smith). The next tier for me is bigger. It includes Murray, Mathurin, Banchero, Ivey, Daniels, Davis and likely Griffin. I'm not sure where to put Sharpe because he is an unknown that I don't want the Kings to touch.
I mean mock draft/youtube highlight bros may get upset, but in reality... there's just not a whole lot separating 4-12. This class has a bunch of good players and valuable archetypes, but it's weakness is the lack of truly franchise changing talents. I'd hope we'd trade down if we wanted to take a Daniels or Griffin type, but you could absolutely justify it at 4. Just wouldn't be optimal
The best thing that could happen for the Kings is that they trade the pick. With all the time the Kings have to negotiate with other teams prior to this draft, if they draft Ivey he should be one of those guys who puts the Kings' hat on on draft day and then a few minutes later the announcement is made - he's been traded.
Johnny Davis has gone back to being a favorite of mines. I'm starting to believe in his 3pt shot again. I wouldn't be upset if we drafted Mathurin at #4 either. He provides shooting at the wing position and still has untapped potential.
This is the ultimate test for Monte. In the previous years, Haliburton and Mitchell happened to "fall" into his lap. This year, he gets his pick.
This is the ultimate test for Monte. In the previous years, Haliburton and Mitchell happened to "fall" into his lap. This year, he gets his pick.
- Status