KINGS PICKING 4TH IN 2022 NBA DRAFT!

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IMO, Ivey doesn't seem like a point guard to me. Much more Dwayne Wade than Ja Morant. He's an attacking guard, not a facilitator. I'm not against drafting Ivey, but I think it is pretty clear that he would be a shooting guard, rather than a PG in the league. IMO, trying to make him a PG would be a mistake.
Yeah. And I think one benefit if Ivey is with us is he won't have the pressure of becoming the lead-playmaker to add to his plate. Attack the rim, space and try on defense while giving secondary passing off Fox/Sabonis. If he ends up on a team where they'll look to him to be a Ja/Wall playmaker right out of the gate, he's going to struggle.
 
I've been trying hard to sell myself on Keegan Murray, but I'm not sure that I can. I know he's the fan favorite to be drafted at #4, and might be Monte's too. But could anyone give me some solid counter-pointer's against my worries? I'd love to alleviate some of the fears I have with him.

  • Fit with Fox and Sabonis on offense
Keegan Murray doesn't need to pound the ball to score. That's his biggest plus with playing next to Fox and Sabonis. He's a good shooter who has a solid stroke. He's also a very good back to the basket post-player. I believe that Murray is at his best when he's cutting off-ball towards the basket AND when he's posting guys up. However, I think this could be cancelled out by Fox and Sabonis. Fox is a poor 3pt shooter. Sabonis is a non 3pt shooter. This hampers the floor spacing because the opposing defenders will refuse to respect their shots. They'll sag on Fox and dare him to shoot 3s. Teams will have no issue leaving Sabonis open at 3. This crowds the painted area for the rest of the 3 players on the floor. In a perfect world, the 2-man game between Sabonis and Murray would be amazing... however, Murray is a very poor passer. He only averaged 1.5apg. There were countless times at Iowa where Murray would post up, get doubled or tripled team, but still go up for the shot. He'd make them more than not, but my issue is that he never even looked to pass the ball. If there's 2 guys guarding you, 1 of your teammates is bound to be open.. and they always were. Yes he converted a good amount of those shot anyways, but it won't work in the NBA when you have 7fters meeting you at the rim. I'll pull examples from this Nebraksa game:

  • 1:02, he'd have his brother wide open if he elected to pass it before he started going into his motion
  • 1:21, he tries to take the ball in transition with 4 guys around him, #30 or #2 should've saw the ball
  • 1:29, he forces the TO and has a 2 on 1 in transition and has his teammate leaking in front, but he decides to take it himself against 2 defenders
  • 2:32, he was double-teamed, and should've passed it to #0
  • 4:33, he grabs the offensive rebound, and has 2 wide open teammates, but decides to put the ball up with all 5 defenders around him
This was a consistent pattern at Iowa. It's very much the Marvin Bagley ideology. Once they get the ball, they're determined to put it through the basket no matter what.

His strengths as a post-up scorer won't show up in Sacramento because Fox and Sabonis' guys will just double and triple team. Murray hardly passes out once he starts getting in his motion. It's a bit of a lose-lose situation.

With that part of his game being negated, what do we have left with Murray? A good 3&D PF who plays very hard on both ends. Is that type of player worth the #4 overall pick for our team? That's the part I'm stuck at.
I think to start:


Seems like a super versatile scorer no? He's gotten some detractors saying he's only a post-scorer than can't create for himself... but that just isn't reflective in the numbers. And as Pennie states in the 2nd tweet, he got better vs tougher comp later in the season. I think Keegan's offensive skill-set is damn near perfect because you can fit him with any team archetype; if you need him to space he can, if you need him to go get buckets, he can. He'll find a way to be a valuable offensive player.

And agreed on the passing. It's Keegan's major wart on his game. But I've said I'm willing to give him and Davis a pass until we see what they look like with NBA teammates. Both guys carried bad teams to really respectable tourney placements and there just wasn't very much offensive talent to help them. If Keegan (or Davis) weren't putting the ball in the hoop, no one else was. Doesn't mean they're automatically going to be playmakers at the NBA level, but both guys are such smart high-IQ players; it's hard to believe they won't find a way to at least be passable passers at the NBA level. I'll bet on the work ethic/offensive skill that they figure it out.
 
IMO, Ivey doesn't seem like a point guard to me. Much more Dwayne Wade than Ja Morant. He's an attacking guard, not a facilitator. I'm not against drafting Ivey, but I think it is pretty clear that he would be a shooting guard, rather than a PG in the league. IMO, trying to make him a PG would be a mistake.
I have always been BPA, so if the Kings think he is the BPA at 4, so be it. Take him. But if it happens, you might as well start taking bets on when Fox will be traded.
 
I think to start:


Seems like a super versatile scorer no? He's gotten some detractors saying he's only a post-scorer than can't create for himself... but that just isn't reflective in the numbers. And as Pennie states in the 2nd tweet, he got better vs tougher comp later in the season. I think Keegan's offensive skill-set is damn near perfect because you can fit him with any team archetype; if you need him to space he can, if you need him to go get buckets, he can. He'll find a way to be a valuable offensive player.

And agreed on the passing. It's Keegan's major wart on his game. But I've said I'm willing to give him and Davis a pass until we see what they look like with NBA teammates. Both guys carried bad teams to really respectable tourney placements and there just wasn't very much offensive talent to help them. If Keegan (or Davis) weren't putting the ball in the hoop, no one else was. Doesn't mean they're automatically going to be playmakers at the NBA level, but both guys are such smart high-IQ players; it's hard to believe they won't find a way to at least be passable passers at the NBA level. I'll bet on the work ethic/offensive skill that they figure it out.
I actually think his best skill set is his shooting from three. I don’t think his interior scoring will translate. Translate at an elite level, I mean.
 

pdxKingsFan

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I have always been BPA, so if the Kings think he is the BPA at 4, so be it. Take him. But if it happens, you might as well start taking bets on when Fox will be traded.
BPA is always going to at minimum consider potential and where they are right now. Sometimes a guy is so head and shoulders above right now and the potential is close and sometimes they are close right now but the potential is sky high for one guy but the other is more likely to match their lesser higher potential. That's where it gets super tricky, especially when you are picking at the top of the draft.

If it's between Ivey and Murray (Sharpe and others, too I guess) and we go Ivey then I am going to assume that means Monte sees Ivey as a potential superstar because if you have these players rated a lot closer, I think you have to go with the plug and play guy. (or it means he thinks Murray is a turd, I guess) I think the biggest risk that both Ivey and Murray have is being asked to play an unnatural position. It's actually a reverse "fit" case, if you will.
 
I have always been BPA, so if the Kings think he is the BPA at 4, so be it. Take him. But if it happens, you might as well start taking bets on when Fox will be traded.
The problem is with Fox’s contract he can’t be traded. Teams know you have a fit problem and you end up trading the guy you would rather keep.
 

pdxKingsFan

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The problem is with Fox’s contract he can’t be traded. Teams know you have a fit problem and you end up trading the guy you would rather keep.
Let's evaluate this after one year under a competent coaching staff. Fox was good/very promising under Joerger. And even under Walton he still showed up when his pride was on the line. He 100% has the tools just needs a reason to play to his ability every game. Coaching will help. Playing .500 or better ball will motivate him as well.
 
The entire media relations crew for the Kings left at the end of the season aside from the intern and the leakiest leaker in the organization left to take a job with the league. Also the most outspoken minority owners who happened to keep leaking info to the media also got bought out at the beginning of the last season.

Monte runs an exceptionally tight ship (especially compared to the Vlade era) to the point that he’s been refusing to give out the names of some of the guys they’re bringing in for draft workouts.

I’m not trying to single out Ham with this post at all but the guys covering this team are simply just not going to have quality information like the bigger national media guys with connections to agents and league execs do. Heck, the only time Ham has broken anything of note over the last several years was the time DDV’s agent spoonfed him talking points to try to boost Donte’s contract value.

That’s just the way the media game goes nowadays and it just seems important to acknowledge that the guys covering this Kings team at the moment are probably less informed than some of the members of this board who have actually been around this Kings organization longer than all the media guys have.
yeah I disagree. All our news here is from Twitter pretty much with nobody here knowing anybody on the inside.
 
On offense, he would fit only if he's camped in the corner like how Horford is used with the Celts. So, yea, you're right. Given Fox's and Domas' strengths, he'd be a jump shooting role player. He's not going to be able to get you a ton of offensive boards either, given where he'll be on the court.

On defense, people are projecting him as someone, who can operate as a small ball 5. A small ball 5 like a young Horford would be worth the #4 pick. I think he's a 4/3 tweener, who won't be able to defend elite 3s and who won't be able to bang with 5s. He's solid, but at 4, nah.
Yeah, pretty much. At Iowa a lot of his role defensively was actually in the backline as a help defender which is probably why his block numbers were so high. He did show some ability to switch, but in the NBA he and Domas hanging back at the rim is a recipe for being no better than they are now with a somewhat similar player to Murray in Lyles. I think the potential defensively with Ivey is much higher considering his athletic ability. You can get smarts, the feet are there or they aren't.
 
I think if there's some fire to all the "Ivey goes in the top 4" smoke, we can forget about Murray unless there's a really juicy trade down scenario for Monte.
And it should be, this dude is clearly in that top 4 and was anywhere from 1-4 on mocks for a good part of the year. As soon as the Kings get a top 4 pick, "Oh, poor Kings, well, they better trade down or pass up the potential star talent." lol. Flat out, the Pistons and the Pacers are seething. They wanted in the top 4, don't give them what they want Monte. Monte holds all the cards right now and this card could very well change the direction of this franchise from a playoff contender to a contender down the line.
 

pdxKingsFan

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yeah I disagree. All our news here is from Twitter pretty much with nobody here knowing anybody on the inside.
this is bad for people scouring for inside news to wow their friends with at the bar but it's actually really good for the people actually doing the work to make the team win again and try to keep their own inside edge.
 
IMO, Ivey doesn't seem like a point guard to me. Much more Dwayne Wade than Ja Morant. He's an attacking guard, not a facilitator. I'm not against drafting Ivey, but I think it is pretty clear that he would be a shooting guard, rather than a PG in the league. IMO, trying to make him a PG would be a mistake.
Totally agree and why I think for Ivey going to any of the Kings, Pistons, or Pacers would be great for him and the team taking him. Who do the Kings have at SG right now? They do have a few stretch 4's in Lyles, Barnes, and Metu. At SG TD but he's on his last year and everyone else is a combo G that leans towards PG.
 
Yeah, pretty much. At Iowa a lot of his role defensively was actually in the backline as a help defender which is probably why his block numbers were so high. He did show some ability to switch, but in the NBA he and Domas hanging back at the rim is a recipe for being no better than they are now with a somewhat similar player to Murray in Lyles. I think the potential defensively with Ivey is much higher considering his athletic ability. You can get smarts, the feet are there or they aren't.
My only issue with Ivey is the eye test says there are a ton of warts. The film looks great. He pops. But people thinking he’s going to be Morant from day one are going to be in a for shock. But if the Kings take him, fine. Commit to him. The first step? You gotta trade Fox. I think Mitchell n Ivey can coexist long term. I don’t think Fox and Ivey can coexist.
 
Totally agree and why I think for Ivey going to any of the Kings, Pistons, or Pacers would be great for him and the team taking him. Who do the Kings have at SG right now? They do have a few stretch 4's in Lyles, Barnes, and Metu. At SG TD but he's on his last year and everyone else is a combo G that leans towards PG.
The Kings have significantly more talent at SG (Davion/DDV/TD) than PF. Not that need should be a factor
 
My only issue with Ivey is the eye test says there are a ton of warts. The film looks great. He pops. But people thinking he’s going to be Morant from day one are going to be in a for shock. But if the Kings take him, fine. Commit to him. The first step? You gotta trade Fox. I think Mitchell n Ivey can coexist long term. I don’t think Fox and Ivey can coexist.
Yeah, and it's a good comp to fluff but bad for those thinking it. But him being able to develop into a bigger Morant is why you simply don't pass on this type of talent. And no, you don't have to trade Fox. Any coach with a brain can find a way to make it work considering Fox is a scoring PG and Ivey is a SG that already understands off ball movement and spacing. Fox and Haliburton didn't work for a variety of reasons mostly Luke Walton again taking the ball out of a more talented players hands and putting it elsewhere.
 
I think to start:


Seems like a super versatile scorer no? He's gotten some detractors saying he's only a post-scorer than can't create for himself... but that just isn't reflective in the numbers. And as Pennie states in the 2nd tweet, he got better vs tougher comp later in the season. I think Keegan's offensive skill-set is damn near perfect because you can fit him with any team archetype; if you need him to space he can, if you need him to go get buckets, he can. He'll find a way to be a valuable offensive player.

And agreed on the passing. It's Keegan's major wart on his game. But I've said I'm willing to give him and Davis a pass until we see what they look like with NBA teammates. Both guys carried bad teams to really respectable tourney placements and there just wasn't very much offensive talent to help them. If Keegan (or Davis) weren't putting the ball in the hoop, no one else was. Doesn't mean they're automatically going to be playmakers at the NBA level, but both guys are such smart high-IQ players; it's hard to believe they won't find a way to at least be passable passers at the NBA level. I'll bet on the work ethic/offensive skill that they figure it out.
If Murray can consistently add those perimeter skills to his game, he’d be amazing. In the games I’ve watched, he didn’t look entirely comfortable taking defenders off the dribble. Ball handling was a bit shaky, but I didn’t see these as negatives against him at all. It just wasn’t part of his skill set which is fine for a PF. However, I may be underrating his untapped potential, because if he can do things like that consistently in the NBA, then that’s a star. But as I said, they weren’t a consistent part of his game. We’d be projecting his best outcome. If we drsft him, I’d for sure use film like that to convince myself of him.

With Johnny Davis, he’s a good passer and unselfish player. I have no questions about that part of his game. With Murray’s poor passing, I think it’s the mindset more than anything. You’ll have to get him out of the tunnel vision. It’s strange because he is such a high IQ player, but just not a very good passer.
 
Yeah, and it's a good comp to fluff but bad for those thinking it. But him being able to develop into a bigger Morant is why you simply don't pass on this type of talent. And no, you don't have to trade Fox. Any coach with a brain can find a way to make it work considering Fox is a scoring PG and Ivey is a SG that already understands off ball movement and spacing. Fox and Haliburton didn't work for a variety of reasons mostly Luke Walton again taking the ball out of a more talented players hands and putting it elsewhere.
Ivey is not worth the #4 pick as a two guard. The handle is loose, the defense is yrs away from average, and the shot is tbd. If you draft him, you give him the keys and you commit to the two yrs of growing pains.
 
The Kings have significantly more talent at SG (Davion/DDV) than PF. Not that need should be a factor
Except neither of those guys are really SG's. They're combo G's that lean towards pick and roll PG's. Davion isn't a SG at his size. He can probably spot minutes there like any other combo but the length isn't there when you combine all 3. There is a reason for a good chunk of time after the trades the best net rating 5 man units were with Lamb until injuries completely leaned towards units without Fox/Sabonis at all anyway. Ivey and Fox would be insanely athletic and have good length. It's a major difference.
 

pdxKingsFan

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The Kings have significantly more talent at SG (Davion/DDV/TD) than PF. Not that need should be a factor
It absolutely shouldn't be, just comes down to how far of a gap there is if you view Ivey as the best player on the board vs. the first guy that fits better. Which could be Sharpe or Maturin or another player for all we know. All things being considered unless you are convinced that Ivey is a superstar I am a lot more comfortable with a player who is generically a forward or even a 2/3 swing rather than a combo guard.
 

pdxKingsFan

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Ivey is not worth the #4 pick as a two guard. The handle is loose, the defense is yrs away from average, and the shot is tbd. If you draft him, you give him the keys and you commit to the two yrs of growing pains.
this is my fear - can he start on day one if the team goals are to win. Brown wants to win. Vivek wants to win. You assume Monte wants to keep his job which means giving the coach and owner what they want and not being the next boy genius who tanked the team into a perennial second rounder.
 
Ivey is not worth the #4 pick as a two guard. The handle is loose, the defense is yrs away from average, and the shot is tbd. If you draft him, you give him the keys and you commit to the two yrs of growing pains.
He is a SG right now and I'm sure teams are well aware of it. He's 20 and isn't going to be a total negative since he has many positives in ways that the Kings don't have a ton of, mostly elite athletic ability. I've always been in the camp that no rookie is going to change this team from where they are to the place they want to be by next season which is apparently 4-6 games above .500. The number 4 pick if it's Ivey? Icing on the cake. The Kings are setting up a plan of after a few seasons being in the middle of that pack of contenders. If Ivey pans out and they use that max space wisely they have their shot at getting there.
 
this is my fear - can he start on day one if the team goals are to win. Brown wants to win. Vivek wants to win. You assume Monte wants to keep his job which means giving the coach and owner what they want and not being the next boy genius who tanked the team into a perennial second rounder.
Does he need to start? I think he would likely beat out the competition on the basis of talent alone but Vivek has set a very reasonable goal here. 4-6 games above .500 is doable without this pick. Or it should be. If the pick pans out then you have either a TERRIFIC rebuild piece should you need to blow it up and/or your own developing stud while you compete. It's Warriors to a T actually. I do think they should have traded those picks but they have Kuminga waiting on the backburner to step in when he's ready. Wiseman as well possibly.
 
He is a SG right now and I'm sure teams are well aware of it. He's 20 and isn't going to be a total negative since he has many positives in ways that the Kings don't have a ton of, mostly elite athletic ability. I've always been in the camp that no rookie is going to change this team from where they are to the place they want to be by next season which is apparently 4-6 games above .500. The number 4 pick if it's Ivey? Icing on the cake. The Kings are setting up a plan of after a few seasons being in the middle of that pack of contenders. If Ivey pans out and they use that max space wisely they have their shot at getting there.
I’m a big believer in wiring. Hali would pass the ball even though he wants to and knows he has to shoot it. Fox just isn’t wired to play with another guard, who needs the ball in his hands to be at his best. Same sh*t with Ivey. How many highlights do you see him curling and shooting off of a pass? How many highlights do you see him cutting and dunking. All of the film are of the look at his ceiling variety where he’s popping off the dribble. Kings draft him, it would be suicide to expect him to play as a low usage Klay type.
 
this is my fear - can he start on day one if the team goals are to win. Brown wants to win. Vivek wants to win. You assume Monte wants to keep his job which means giving the coach and owner what they want and not being the next boy genius who tanked the team into a perennial second rounder.
Unlikely. From day one? I guarantee the defense won’t be what it needs to be. The offense? I’m skeptical.
 

pdxKingsFan

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Does he need to start? I think he would likely beat out the competition on the basis of talent alone but Vivek has set a very reasonable goal here. 4-6 games above .500 is doable without this pick. Or it should be. If the pick pans out then you have either a TERRIFIC rebuild piece should you need to blow it up and/or your own developing stud while you compete. It's Warriors to a T actually. I do think they should have traded those picks but they have Kuminga waiting on the backburner to step in when he's ready. Wiseman as well possibly.
I've been extremely optimistic about our future but 4-6 games over .500 just because of Sabonis, a healthy DDV and Brown coming in? (if we draft Ivey how does that complicate DDV, who we have to re-sign for that matter?)

don't forget if we draft Ivey we still need to find a full time piece between Barnes and Sabonis.
 
I’m a big believer in wiring. Hali would pass the ball even though he wants to and knows he has to shoot it. Fox just isn’t wired to play with another guard, who needs the ball in his hands to be at his best. Same sh*t with Ivey. How many highlights do you see him curling and shooting off of a pass? How many highlights do you see him cutting and dunking. All of the look at his ceiling highlights are of him off the dribble. Kings draft him, it would be suicide to expect him to play as a usage Klay type.
So am I. Superstars don't get stumped by doubles on pick and roll and instinctively swing pass out of it. Haliburton is a good player, but that wiring makes him who he is and likely who he will be. It will be interesting to see how he develops in Indy and how much development is left.
 
So am I. Superstars don't get stumped by doubles on pick and roll and instinctively swing pass out of it. Haliburton is a good player, but that wiring makes him who he is and likely who he will be. It will be interesting to see how he develops in Indy and how much development is left.
Hali makes others better. Can he win it as the only stud, no. Fox and Ivey do not make others better. They need others to support them. You draft Ivey, you need to choose who is in the first chair. The second chair needs to be traded.
 
I've been extremely optimistic about our future but 4-6 games over .500 just because of Sabonis, a healthy DDV and Brown coming in? (if we draft Ivey how does that complicate DDV, who we have to re-sign for that matter?)

don't forget if we draft Ivey we still need to find a full time piece between Barnes and Sabonis.
Well, I've been open about this, they need to let Donte go IMO if he's wanting MLE money or anything close. The Kings have max cap potential next summer without having to renounce Barnes and signing Donte to a deal like that is going to be a JT/K9/Holmes situation all over again if he's not enough on the talent side at SG. Those aren't the types of players you overpay while not winning while figuring you can flip them later on. Learn your lesson Kings. It literally cost you Jayson Tatum last time pretty much. I think the Kings have to prioritize having as close to a full max salary slot as possible. They need that leverage on the FA market.

I look at it this way. Next summer I think odds are the guy they go after is Grant. They could try Beal, but the odds of him landing here aren't great. Grant to me would be the target. So, sign Donte/draft Murray? Or Have Ivey/Barnes/Grant/plus other goodies with the remaining space since Grant ain't getting full max from anyone.
 
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