I've been trying hard to sell myself on Keegan Murray, but I'm not sure that I can. I know he's the fan favorite to be drafted at #4, and might be Monte's too. But could anyone give me some solid counter-pointer's against my worries? I'd love to alleviate some of the fears I have with him.
- Fit with Fox and Sabonis on offense
Keegan Murray doesn't need to pound the ball to score. That's his biggest plus with playing next to Fox and Sabonis. He's a good shooter who has a solid stroke. He's also a very good back to the basket post-player. I believe that Murray is at his best when he's cutting off-ball towards the basket AND when he's posting guys up. However, I think this could be cancelled out by Fox and Sabonis. Fox is a poor 3pt shooter. Sabonis is a non 3pt shooter. This hampers the floor spacing because the opposing defenders will refuse to respect their shots. They'll sag on Fox and dare him to shoot 3s. Teams will have no issue leaving Sabonis open at 3. This crowds the painted area for the rest of the 3 players on the floor. In a perfect world, the 2-man game between Sabonis and Murray would be amazing... however, Murray is a very poor passer. He only averaged 1.5apg. There were countless times at Iowa where Murray would post up, get doubled or tripled team, but still go up for the shot. He'd make them more than not, but my issue is that he never even looked to pass the ball. If there's 2 guys guarding you, 1 of your teammates is bound to be open.. and they always were. Yes he converted a good amount of those shot anyways, but it won't work in the NBA when you have 7fters meeting you at the rim. I'll pull examples from this Nebraksa game:
- 1:02, he'd have his brother wide open if he elected to pass it before he started going into his motion
- 1:21, he tries to take the ball in transition with 4 guys around him, #30 or #2 should've saw the ball
- 1:29, he forces the TO and has a 2 on 1 in transition and has his teammate leaking in front, but he decides to take it himself against 2 defenders
- 2:32, he was double-teamed, and should've passed it to #0
- 4:33, he grabs the offensive rebound, and has 2 wide open teammates, but decides to put the ball up with all 5 defenders around him
This was a consistent pattern at Iowa. It's very much the Marvin Bagley ideology. Once they get the ball, they're determined to put it through the basket no matter what.
His strengths as a post-up scorer won't show up in Sacramento because Fox and Sabonis' guys will just double and triple team. Murray hardly passes out once he starts getting in his motion. It's a bit of a lose-lose situation.
With that part of his game being negated, what do we have left with Murray? A good 3&D PF who plays very hard on both ends. Is that type of player worth the #4 overall pick for our team? That's the part I'm stuck at.