[Game] Kings @ Hawks, 10/31/16 - 4:30 PM PDT
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as a small market team and dysfunctional organization in general, Vlade and the Kings cannot afford to whiff on draft picks any longer, that's the best chance for the Kings to be relevant again IMO...I have no other choice but to believe and wait it out another season or two before I start going bonkers on Vlade's drafting abilities.
I raised the point inSummer League that its a red flag that he's come into SL both times out of shape. There were questions on is motor going into the draft. Talent is not a question but dots are starting to get connected.
Ben, like him or not, has clearly worked hard on his game. Right now I'm not seeing any progression in WCS' game but he's got some time.
Ben, like him or not, has clearly worked hard on his game. Right now I'm not seeing any progression in WCS' game but he's got some time.
Willie has some time. The Kings not so much. An improved Willie would make a huge difference in a season, where we once again try to reach the PO to convince our franchise player to give us even more time to build a team around him. We signed multiple tough, gritty vets to make it happen. But those vets are old or lack talent to make this happen on their own. We need improvement from Ben and Willie to reach our goals. So far Ben is showing some promise, while Willie has completely faltered to the point where Coach Joerger doesn't trust him anymore.
Some kind of contribution from our rookies would be more than welcome too.....
Some kind of contribution from our rookies would be more than welcome too.....
Concerns about his fit with Joerger means I've been busy on the trade machines trying out figure out a deal that let's Philly get WCS+ while we take Noel. 
Alas, Philly is probably waiting until midseason for teams to give up and blow things up.
Alas, Philly is probably waiting until midseason for teams to give up and blow things up.
I wouldn't want to be on the hook paying a guy $20+ mil a year (starting next year) for a player who not only isn't an ideal fit next to Cousins, but a player who's impact up until this point in his career has been neutral at best.
Now that's not saying that Cauley-Stein will be better than Noel, but Cauley-Stein has at least flashed the ability to hit some jumpers (making me think that he could not only be a great complement defensively but also an adequate fit offensively next to Cousins) and is at least cost controlled for 3 more years (whereas Noel will probably have at least 1 team out there who will throw $20+ mil at him). I'd rather hang on to Cauley-Stein at this point if the return is Noel.
There's also a massive gulf between a $20+ mil salary and a $3.5-$4.5 mil salary.
And in regards to his offense, no, he's not. You saying he's better than people think doesn't make it so. Where's your evidence?
Noel's ORAPM was 470th in the league last year. 470th! He's had the 9th and 8th best ORTG on his very untalented Sixers team the last two years. And his offensive on/off has been -11.9 & -9.6 the last 2 seasons (meaning his team scores 11.9 & 9.6 less points per 100 possessions when he is on the floor). That's a massive drop.
And in regards to his offense, no, he's not. You saying he's better than people think doesn't make it so. Where's your evidence?
Noel's ORAPM was 470th in the league last year. 470th! He's had the 9th and 8th best ORTG on his very untalented Sixers team the last two years. And his offensive on/off has been -11.9 & -9.6 the last 2 seasons (meaning his team scores 11.9 & 9.6 less points per 100 possessions when he is on the floor). That's a massive drop.
You're misreading that last bit. His offensive +/- the last two years has been -4.3 and -3.7, numbers largely offset by his -4.6 and -2.3 effect on the defensive side of the ball, although searching for effects on he Philly dumpster file is always a bit dubious. The -11.9 and -9.6 were the overall deficits Phily was running (those numbers differ slightly from the 11.4 and 9.9 BBallRef reports) with him on the floor. Compared to -9.6 and -9.9 with him off it. Generally they were bad.
Now generally, his offense is better than people think it is. Not because he is some stud, but because he has some perimeter skills that it might be possible to develop as long as he's not "The Man". This is his shot chart from last year:
That's too many Red Xs, but it does demonstrate that he has some comfort stepping out and facing up. More so than Kosta, our current starter, does for instance. And with solid rebounding and elite defensive work, its a tasty package. A Cousins/Noel/Koufos frontcourt is formidable.
Now generally, his offense is better than people think it is. Not because he is some stud, but because he has some perimeter skills that it might be possible to develop as long as he's not "The Man". This is his shot chart from last year:
That's too many Red Xs, but it does demonstrate that he has some comfort stepping out and facing up. More so than Kosta, our current starter, does for instance. And with solid rebounding and elite defensive work, its a tasty package. A Cousins/Noel/Koufos frontcourt is formidable.
You're misreading that last bit. His offensive +/- the last two years has been -4.3 and -3.7, numbers largely offset by his -4.6 and -2.3 effect on the defensive side of the ball, although searching for effects on he Philly dumpster file is always a bit dubious. The -11.9 and -9.6 were the overall deficits Phily was running (those numbers differ slightly from the 11.4 and 9.9 BBallRef reports) with him on the floor. Compared to -9.6 and -9.9 with him off it. Generally they were bad.
Now generally, his offense is better than people think it is. Not because he is some stud, but because he has some perimeter skills that it might be possible to develop as long as he's not "The Man". This is his shot chart from last year:
That's too many Red Xs, but it does demonstrate that he has some comfort stepping out and facing up. More so than Kosta, our current starter, does for instance. And with solid rebounding and elite defensive work, its a tasty package. A Cousins/Noel/Koufos frontcourt is formidable.
Now generally, his offense is better than people think it is. Not because he is some stud, but because he has some perimeter skills that it might be possible to develop as long as he's not "The Man". This is his shot chart from last year:
That's too many Red Xs, but it does demonstrate that he has some comfort stepping out and facing up. More so than Kosta, our current starter, does for instance. And with solid rebounding and elite defensive work, its a tasty package. A Cousins/Noel/Koufos frontcourt is formidable.
And you're right. It is "largely" offset by his defense, but that goes right along with the point I was making in my first reply. As good as his defense is, his offense is just as bad. He's not making a net positive impact out there on the court. I would not want to be the team who gives up value in a trade only to have to match a $20+ mil offer sheet the following year.
We're the Kings. We need to be smart with our money if we want to be serious about building a contender around Cousins.
Actually it's not a very good way to spend your money even in today's NBA.
If you're paying a player $20+ mil a year, he better be helping your team win. Right now, Noel does not help his team win. I know it might seem wise because he's young, athletic, flashy, a shot blocker, etc. but all it's going to do is hamstring your team's ability to be a great team by using 20% of your cap on a player that doesn't move the needle.
If Noel was a great complement to Cousins and our team, I could squint and say "okay he might be able to make a contribution as the team being complementary should help improve his play," but unfortunately that's not the case here.
We can't be mesmerized by the flashiness that is Noel. We need to stay objective and focus on what's important: his impact on the floor.
If you're paying a player $20+ mil a year, he better be helping your team win. Right now, Noel does not help his team win. I know it might seem wise because he's young, athletic, flashy, a shot blocker, etc. but all it's going to do is hamstring your team's ability to be a great team by using 20% of your cap on a player that doesn't move the needle.
If Noel was a great complement to Cousins and our team, I could squint and say "okay he might be able to make a contribution as the team being complementary should help improve his play," but unfortunately that's not the case here.
We can't be mesmerized by the flashiness that is Noel. We need to stay objective and focus on what's important: his impact on the floor.
2 years ago Gobert didn't help his team in +/- either and carried a massive -6.0 ORTG +/-.
There's nothing magically bad about Noel's offense anymore than any other defensive center, and in fact his faceup game opens possibilities for increased utility, certainly over the Ben Wallace's of the world. He's young, and he's been playing for a chaotic franchise where every number has to be taken with a grain of salt.
My general guess is that we'd like a massive player of Marc Gasol's ilk in there. Vlade was looking at Pau even before Joerger got here. but those guys are a rare bird, and maybe an aging breed. Though of Gortat too, but another older player with a big contract. So our realistic available choices are really about whether we bring in a defender with adequate offense or an offensive player with adequate defense.
There's nothing magically bad about Noel's offense anymore than any other defensive center, and in fact his faceup game opens possibilities for increased utility, certainly over the Ben Wallace's of the world. He's young, and he's been playing for a chaotic franchise where every number has to be taken with a grain of salt.
My general guess is that we'd like a massive player of Marc Gasol's ilk in there. Vlade was looking at Pau even before Joerger got here. but those guys are a rare bird, and maybe an aging breed. Though of Gortat too, but another older player with a big contract. So our realistic available choices are really about whether we bring in a defender with adequate offense or an offensive player with adequate defense.
Your Gobert argument is a classic use of using on/off without including context. On/Off does not do the best job at accounting for teammates. If the replacement sub for Player A is much weaker than the replacement sub for Player B, Player A has an advantage to receive a better on/off. Considering Noel's replacements the last 2 years have been players like Henry Sims & a rookie Jahil Okafor, it should allow Noel a much easier opportunity to have a positive On/Off, but despite the favorable situation to post a good On/Off, Noel fell short. Meanwhile, Gobert has a guy of the name of Favors to replace him along with Withey & Kanter in the mix. It's pretty fair to say that Gobert's "competition" was much better than Noel's. So comparing their On/Off numbers without that context is leaving you susceptible to misinterpreting the data.
As I have already pointed out before, RAPM does a good job at accounting for what On/Off doesn't (teammates). It's able to factor in a teammates skill/talent to provide a more accurate read. Having that knowledge, what would you expect? Considering Gobert's replacements are much better than Noel, you would expect Gobert's RAPM to be higher while you would expect Noel's RAPM to be lower. Let's take a look...
Gobert
ORAPM: 0.03 (159th in the league)
DRAPM: 2.15 (15th in the league)
RAPM: 2.18 (39th in the league)
Noel
ORAPM: -2.79 (470th in the league)
DRAPM: 0.28 (173rd in the league)
RAPM: -2.51 (433rd in the league)
Would you look at that? The stats fall right in line with what you would expect when adjusted for teammates. As you can see, your comparison of Noel to Gobert is feeble at best. Gobert's impact is far and away better than Noel.
No way should we be investing our cap in a player with such little impact. You want to stick to the potential argument? Fine. Perhaps one day Noel will be able to help his team win, but considering how far away he is, it's really not worth it to pay him while also giving up a 6th pick in his sophomore year.
To your very last point about bringing in a defender with adequate offense or an offensive player with adequate defense, I agree. However, Noel fits neither description at this time, and considering we're trying to be competitive immediately to help persuade Cousins to stay, locking up a lot of cap space in a player who has not proved that he can contribute to wins is a very, very, very risky move. Some might even consider it reckless.
As I have already pointed out before, RAPM does a good job at accounting for what On/Off doesn't (teammates). It's able to factor in a teammates skill/talent to provide a more accurate read. Having that knowledge, what would you expect? Considering Gobert's replacements are much better than Noel, you would expect Gobert's RAPM to be higher while you would expect Noel's RAPM to be lower. Let's take a look...
Gobert
ORAPM: 0.03 (159th in the league)
DRAPM: 2.15 (15th in the league)
RAPM: 2.18 (39th in the league)
Noel
ORAPM: -2.79 (470th in the league)
DRAPM: 0.28 (173rd in the league)
RAPM: -2.51 (433rd in the league)
Would you look at that? The stats fall right in line with what you would expect when adjusted for teammates. As you can see, your comparison of Noel to Gobert is feeble at best. Gobert's impact is far and away better than Noel.
No way should we be investing our cap in a player with such little impact. You want to stick to the potential argument? Fine. Perhaps one day Noel will be able to help his team win, but considering how far away he is, it's really not worth it to pay him while also giving up a 6th pick in his sophomore year.
To your very last point about bringing in a defender with adequate offense or an offensive player with adequate defense, I agree. However, Noel fits neither description at this time, and considering we're trying to be competitive immediately to help persuade Cousins to stay, locking up a lot of cap space in a player who has not proved that he can contribute to wins is a very, very, very risky move. Some might even consider it reckless.