[Game] Kings @ Hawks, 10/31/16 - 4:30 PM PDT

#1
There was a moment vs the Spurs that warmed my heart despite the disappointing outcome.

Boogie got free for spin move and authoritative two hand jam. He immediately put his head down and sprinted to the other end.

No Tarzan howl. No chest thumping. No egocentric posing to the adoring crowd. Just hustle and moving on to the next play and comeback attempt.

This is a superstar to believe in. This is franchise player to love. This is someone to make Sacramento proud.

This isn't something we witnessed too often last season, precluded by physical conditioning, health, apathy and toxic relationship with geriatric coach who swindled the organization into a swan song payday.

Vlade did right by the organization and his best player. He saw the chink in the armor, among others, and took corrective measures (you're fired!), seizing on the dysfunction in Memphis to secure a seriously good coach.

The lead-up to opening of Golden One Center was about fielding a team that competed at level commensurate with the quality of the new venue. Beautiful building deserves beautiful team to watch. At least one not eliminated from playoff contention by December.

Led by new coach and best player resolute and capable, that vision appears increasingly lucid.

I am perfectly okay with Boogie leading the NBA in technicals again, a perennial occurrence or so it seems, engaging in constant dialogue with refs who "have it in for him", if his level of play persists.

Boogie has been unbelievably good over a small sample size of three games. And this is not something we could say last year, except for his tremendous run the first two weeks of 2016.

I have had an ongoing debate in order for the Kings to become a legitimate team, Boogie needed to become better. He needed to do more than 53% TS and 0.8 assist to turnover, his career averages, engage defensively on more than 60-70% of possessions.

The counterargument of which I vehemently disagree is Boogie has done his fair share. And it is the cast of characters around him, incompetent and futile, that have been the difference between winning and losing. I don't buy this argument. It doesn't pass the sniff test.

Boogie hasn't been good enough over his career, regardless of the incompetence around him. But that appears to be changing. He's growing up before our eyes. He's shed the fat and excuses. He appears ready to be the player he is capable of becoming: a legitimate superstar. If you don't see the difference between Boogie 2016-17 and seasons past, I don't know what to tell you. Except open your eyes.

Last night was a microcosm of Boogie's career: a formidable opponent takes its best shot. Usually that would result in fatal blow. Shocking and awing with athleticism and execution, the Kings are on their heels (and down by 18 points). The team from Minnesota (despite their lame starting PG) is pretty good, with shooters quickness size and strength and a game plan. And a smart coach.

Victory needs to be earned. Last year, and last decade, it was unearned through carelessness, sloppiness, and forced shots. It was unearned through quick shots and casual disregard for an opponent willing to take what you give them.

Credit can be duly given to Rudy and Barnes and Ben (BOOM BABY!!!) and Ty for their timely contribution and savvy.

But it was Boogie who set the tone with his dominance and efficiency, turning a 10 point deficit to 5 point margin with three ball and mid range jumper to close the gap and change momentum. He fouled out in crunch time, but his defense on Towns and constant inside and outside barrage resulted in potential second consecutive home defeat into first ever new home win.

Boogie has been 53% TS in his career. That's not good enough to lead a team anywhere, unless you have a Top 5 defense and pass the ball like Bill Walton in his prime.

In three games Boogie is 66% TS. That's incredible, in-line with my best case forecast of 56-58% TS, based on system and conditioning and PG's who know how to draw and dish.

The Kings embark on a 5-game roadie with momentum and confidence at their back and their "superstar" playing like one. If Boogie continues to play like he has, regardless of other elements that have a tangible effect on winning, i.e. bench production, SG play, perimeter defense, etc, I like our chances to come home on this trip . 5-3 or better.

Let's not lose forrest for the trees. This team goes as far as Boogie takes 'em, and so far the taking has been mighty fine:

  • 30 PPG (#6 in NBA)
  • 35,6 PER (!!!!)
  • 0.9 assist to turnover
  • GREAT defense
  • 16.0 FGAs per game (shot attempts down 4.5 from last year)
  • Leads NBA in FTAs per game at 15.3 (2.3 FTAs more than AD at #2)

Blob's Keys Vs. The Hawks:

I don't think much of the Hawks. They lost Teague. Howard is a shell of his former self. Korver is old and not as good as getting open for 3 bombs as before. They beat the 76ers and a struggling Wizards team so don't be impressed by their 2-0 record. The Wolves are a better team than the Hawks. So if the Kings play as well as they did last night, I am counting this as a win. The first game on an East coast trip can be tough, as the guys adjust to the time difference.

It will be up to Lawson, who has been playing absolutely fantastic defense, to put the clamps down on Dennis Schroeder (a Rondo look-a-like, 12.5 PPG, 17 PER), and Boogie to check Paul Millsap, their leading scorer at 22.5 PPG. I look for Boogie to try to get their frontline in foul trouble, for Lawson and Temple to make life hard on Schroeder, and for us to take command in the second half to cruise to win and 3-1 record.

Go Kings!!!
 
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kingsboi

Hall of Famer
#3
Considering the Kings have not won in Atlanta for 10 years I want to say? Correct me if i'm wrong...Paul Millsap will get his points, the Kings need to make sure Schroder and the likes of Hardaway/Korver don't hurt you from deep. I'm not immensely concerned with Howard, he will grab some rebounds though and protect the paint....I expect a loss here, history just is not on their side and I side with history more often than not until proven otherwise.
 

SLAB

Hall of Famer
#4
Considering the Kings have not won in Atlanta for 10 years I want to say? Correct me if i'm wrong...Paul Millsap will get his points, the Kings need to make sure Schroder and the likes of Hardaway/Korver don't hurt you from deep. I'm not immensely concerned with Howard, he will grab some rebounds though and protect the paint....I expect a loss here, history just is not on their side and I side with history more often than not until proven otherwise.
They're going to start rewriting history eventually anyways.... So may as well start tomorrow night!
 
#6
Considering the Kings have not won in Atlanta for 10 years I want to say? Correct me if i'm wrong...Paul Millsap will get his points, the Kings need to make sure Schroder and the likes of Hardaway/Korver don't hurt you from deep. I'm not immensely concerned with Howard, he will grab some rebounds though and protect the paint....I expect a loss here, history just is not on their side and I side with history more often than not until proven otherwise.
This is poor logic. The Kings last year were #1 pace. This year they are #28 pace. Complete about face. The player turnover has been dramatic too, with 4-5 in the rotation from last year: Rudy, Boogie, Willie and Ben, and Omri if he plays. And as I said in my preview, Boogie is a playing like a legitimate superstar. Last year, not so much. The only history to which I think has credence is historically a team that travels from one coast to the the other plays below average on the 1st game of a trip, still adjusting to the time difference. Tip off for the Kings will effectively be 4:30PM PST. Besides that I don't think historical results are relevant.
 
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kingsboi

Hall of Famer
#7
This is poor logic. The Kings last year were #1 pace. This year they are #28 pace. Complete about face. The player turnover has been dramatic too, with 4-5 in the rotation from last year: Rudy, Boogie, Willie and Ben, and Omri if he plays. And as I said in my preview, Boogie is a playing like a legitimate superstar. Last year, not so much. The only history to which I think has credence is historically a team that travels from one coast to the the other plays below average on the 1st game of a trip, still adjusting to the time difference.

Tip off for the Kings will effectively be 4:30PM PST. Besides that I don't think historical results are relevant.
I'd love to be proven wrong but I just can't go against it just yet
 

VF21

Super Moderator Emeritus
SME
#8
Considering the Kings have not won in Atlanta for 10 years I want to say? Correct me if i'm wrong...Paul Millsap will get his points, the Kings need to make sure Schroder and the likes of Hardaway/Korver don't hurt you from deep. I'm not immensely concerned with Howard, he will grab some rebounds though and protect the paint....I expect a loss here, history just is not on their side and I side with history more often than not until proven otherwise.
You're wrong. The Kings won in Atlanta in January, breaking a losing streak of almost 8 years.

EDIT: I was wrong. The game I was referring to was in Sacramento.
 
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#9
Come post your predictions for game night #4:
On the road against the Hawks, Monday 10/31, 4:30PM

Follow this to the prediction game thread:
32* KingFans have participated in the prediction game so far, but only about a dozen were really consistent about it.

Current Scoresheet:

The scoresheet after the 2 first nights can be found earlier in this thread
(or in this attachment: View attachment 5808 )

Scoring Rules:

A reminder of the full scoring rules can be found in the post quoted below
(or in this summary attachment: View attachment 5791 )

You can total as much as 100 points for one prediction:
1. You get 40 pts for predicting the winner.
2. You get up to 30 pts for predicting the point difference of the game (directional difference! +10 is not the same as -10!)
3. You get up to 15 pts for predicting the total score of each of the teams (30 pts for both teams together)

Here is a chart to sum it all up: View attachment 5791
Prediction Rules:

Predictions are for the FINAL SCORE of the game (official result, after all overtimes etc.)
Predictions must be made ON THIS PREDICTION THREAD.
Predictions must be made IN ADVANCE (before the game's tip-off).

Join in - It turns out to be fun!

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#10
Atlanta is going to be an extremely tough match up. They have the size to match up against us.
Atlanta has 2 good bigs in Millsap and Howard. Both guys have the ability to body up Cousins. It'll be a real test for the Cousins-Koufos front court on how well they'll be able to contain these two players too. Millsap is still a top 5 PF. Howard is still a top 15 C.

Onto guard matchup, Schroder hasn't exploded yet, but he certainly can. Extremely quick and athletic player who knows how to get to the rim. We'll need Lawson to step up and prevent penetration. As soon as Schroder is able to penetrate, it could be trouble for our entire defense.
Afflalo will need to really stay on Korver and fight through the screens. Korver has lost a few steps on D, so maybe this is the game where Afflalo is able to capitalize on him.

Rudy has a favorable matchup over Bazemore purely based on just size. However, Bazemore is a very good defender. I think Rudy will need to make sure not to help too much. Bazemore isn't much of an offense threat, but he is a threat from the perimeter.

Onto the bench:
Thabo has emerged as their version of Matt Barnes. Will need to beat them with hustle.
Hardaway Jr. has also emerged as their version of McLemore. He's a solid bench scorer who can get hot, or get cold just as fast. This will be a tough assignment for Ben.
Atlanta has good rebounding big men off the bench too. Will need to keep an eye on the boards, something that WCS has struggled with this entire offseason and start to the regular season.

Prediction: Afflalo and the bench step up this game, resulting in a Kings W.
Kings win 109-105
 
#11
You're wrong. The Kings won in Atlanta in January, breaking a losing streak of almost 8 years.
No they beat Atlanta in sleep train during the "we got the eigth seed winning streak". They lost in Atlanta earlier in the season in a close game we could have maybe should have won. That was also the game where Cousins elbowed Horford and was subsequently suspended one game which was vs the Heat.
 
#12
Key to the game will be again to play them physical. If Bazemore is guarding Gay, he has to seal him on the block similar to what he was doing to Wiggins and Warren. If Cousins can get Howard in some foul trouble they dont really have anyone else to throw at him. Millsap is a worry, too quick for Cousins and maybe too strong and agressive for guys like Rudy or Barnes. Will have to take a by comitte approach. We got a shot, we have the best player on the court, they have the second in Millsap and they are well coached, thankfully we are too now.
 

VF21

Super Moderator Emeritus
SME
#13
No they beat Atlanta in sleep train during the "we got the eigth seed winning streak". They lost in Atlanta earlier in the season in a close game we could have maybe should have won. That was also the game where Cousins elbowed Horford and was subsequently suspended one game which was vs the Heat.
Oops. My bad. I didn't read the article closely enough. :p
 
#14
Atlanta is going to be an extremely tough match up. They have the size to match up against us.
Atlanta has 2 good bigs in Millsap and Howard. Both guys have the ability to body up Cousins. It'll be a real test for the Cousins-Koufos front court on how well they'll be able to contain these two players too. Millsap is still a top 5 PF. Howard is still a top 15 C.

Onto guard matchup, Schroder hasn't exploded yet, but he certainly can. Extremely quick and athletic player who knows how to get to the rim. We'll need Lawson to step up and prevent penetration. As soon as Schroder is able to penetrate, it could be trouble for our entire defense.
Afflalo will need to really stay on Korver and fight through the screens. Korver has lost a few steps on D, so maybe this is the game where Afflalo is able to capitalize on him.

Rudy has a favorable matchup over Bazemore purely based on just size. However, Bazemore is a very good defender. I think Rudy will need to make sure not to help too much. Bazemore isn't much of an offense threat, but he is a threat from the perimeter.

Onto the bench:
Thabo has emerged as their version of Matt Barnes. Will need to beat them with hustle.
Hardaway Jr. has also emerged as their version of McLemore. He's a solid bench scorer who can get hot, or get cold just as fast. This will be a tough assignment for Ben.
Atlanta has good rebounding big men off the bench too. Will need to keep an eye on the boards, something that WCS has struggled with this entire offseason and start to the regular season.

Prediction: Afflalo and the bench step up this game, resulting in a Kings W.
Kings win 109-105
We need more from Affalo. Based on pre-season and his post-up game, I had him penciled in at 12-14 PPG. So far he's at 6.7 PPG shooting 32%.
 
#18
It's more about the collective than individual players with Atlanta. Usually they beat US with defense and transition 3's. A real test for our newfound defensive identity.
We won't stay big for long against Millsap or we pay the prize.
 
#19
Atlanta is a lesser version of Spurs: they won't beat themselves, you have to do it yourself. Good thing though, it's a less talented version of Spurs.
 
#20
Here's atlantas bench Muscala, Hardaway, Humphries, and some guy named Delaney. Our bench should be a major plus vs them as long as our starters play there starters even.
 
#21
Atlanta is going to be an extremely tough match up. They have the size to match up against us.
Atlanta has 2 good bigs in Millsap and Howard. Both guys have the ability to body up Cousins. It'll be a real test for the Cousins-Koufos front court on how well they'll be able to contain these two players too. Millsap is still a top 5 PF. Howard is still a top 15 C.

Onto guard matchup, Schroder hasn't exploded yet, but he certainly can. Extremely quick and athletic player who knows how to get to the rim. We'll need Lawson to step up and prevent penetration. As soon as Schroder is able to penetrate, it could be trouble for our entire defense.
Afflalo will need to really stay on Korver and fight through the screens. Korver has lost a few steps on D, so maybe this is the game where Afflalo is able to capitalize on him.

Rudy has a favorable matchup over Bazemore purely based on just size. However, Bazemore is a very good defender. I think Rudy will need to make sure not to help too much. Bazemore isn't much of an offense threat, but he is a threat from the perimeter.

Onto the bench:
Thabo has emerged as their version of Matt Barnes. Will need to beat them with hustle.
Hardaway Jr. has also emerged as their version of McLemore. He's a solid bench scorer who can get hot, or get cold just as fast. This will be a tough assignment for Ben.
Atlanta has good rebounding big men off the bench too. Will need to keep an eye on the boards, something that WCS has struggled with this entire offseason and start to the regular season.

Prediction: Afflalo and the bench step up this game, resulting in a Kings W.
Kings win 109-105
Millsap is an absolute match-up nightmare for us and has been for a few yearsnow. I def don't want Boogie out on the perimeter trying to stay in front of him as that's an easy way to get 2 quick fouls, so Koufos will probably be limited this game. Would love to see Barnes get a crack at slowing Millsap, but not sure how effective that will be with the injury he's dealing with. Perfect time for WCS to break out of his slump eh?
 

dude12

Hall of Famer
#22
Against Millsap, seems we can run Barnes, Tolliver and Casspi against him. I think we have the pieces to slow him down or make it tough. He's not the athletically tough matchup like LaVine and Wiggins who are simply quicker than our guys.
 
#25
Horford and Splitter have really played Cousins well in the past. Today all he has to worry about is Howard, who he has dominated on recent times but you still cant sleep on. He is still a big force on defense, lets see if Cousins can get him in early foul trouble, if Dwight is out of the game Kris Humphries is your backup C.
 
#26
We have thirteen 5-man lineups this year with a positive net rating. Only one of those lineups doesn't consist of Barnes, Casspi, Gay, or Tolliver playing PF. (AKA only one double center lineup has been able to win on the floor)

The most effective of those lineupa this year (with at least a little sample behind it) has been:

PG - Temple
SG - Afflalo
SF - Gay
PF - Barnes
C - Cousins



On a side note, it looks like Cousins & WCS have yet to share the floor this year.
 
#27
Key to the game will be again to play them physical. If Bazemore is guarding Gay, he has to seal him on the block similar to what he was doing to Wiggins and Warren. If Cousins can get Howard in some foul trouble they dont really have anyone else to throw at him. Millsap is a worry, too quick for Cousins and maybe too strong and agressive for guys like Rudy or Barnes. Will have to take a by comitte approach. We got a shot, we have the best player on the court, they have the second in Millsap and they are well coached, thankfully we are too now.
It's more about the collective than individual players with Atlanta. Usually they beat US with defense and transition 3's. A real test for our newfound defensive identity.
We won't stay big for long against Millsap or we pay the prize.
I would like to see how they defend Boogie with Milsap.
 
#29
I would like to see how they defend Boogie with Milsap.
Why should they defend Boogie with Millsap? It's Howard vs Boogie and Millsap vs Koufos. And Millsap is a rock solid defender even against bigger guys, while Kosta is sadly not someone, who will really punish smaller players.
What's interesting is, that with Splitter still out, the Hawks are down to Humphries and Muscala, when Howard is in foul trouble.
 
#30
Millsap has a slow release on his shot and doesn't really jump either. With Cousins size & length, he could probably afford to give Millsap a little more space knowing that he would still be able to close out in time. Should potentially help combat Millsap's quickness.