[Game] Kings @ Clippers - Sunday, Jan. 27 - 12:30PT, 3:30ET

Stats are tool. Not an answer. There is a human element in everything sports related that is not easily told by stats alone.

I have no reason to argue your numbers about WCS/Bogi/Bagley lineups. But what I can say is that Bogi and Bagley lack some chemistry. Bogi immediately looks for WCS on the pick n roll or on the fast break. Marvin can be waving his arms in the same situations and Bogi doesn't give him the ball. I'm not making up any reasons why that happens or who is right or wrong. Maybe Bagley is slightly out of position because often times he is. But that is something the coaches need to SEE and work out to make that lineup work a little better. You find a way to help your best players work well together.
I’m not sure your analysis fits the data. Here is the 3 man of Bogi, Bagley and Beli...

N. Bjelica, .B. Bogdanovic, .M. Bagley III Net Rating 12.

The problem is WCS and Bagley paired with Bogi....
 
B. Bogdanovic, .W. Cauley-Stein, .B. Hield, .M. Bagley III Net Rating -9.9.
The lineup I am proposing and the one many fans want that includes arguably our 4 best players --- Fox Buddy Bogs Bagley --- plus Willie has played 24 minutes and you want to tell me it won't work? Have you ever taken a statistics class or read a book that teaches the concept of a statistically significant sample size? The data you are presenting is meaningless. You cannot conclude the aforementioned group will not work because you do not have the relevant data to make such a claim.
 
The lineup I am proposing and the one many fans want that includes arguably our 4 best players --- Fox Buddy Bogs Bagley --- plus Willie has played 24 minutes and you want to tell me it won't work? Have you ever taken a statistics class or read a book that teaches the concept of a statistically significant sample size? The data you are presenting is meaningless. You cannot conclude the aforementioned group will not work because you do not have the relevant data to make such a claim.
I am at least presenting data... you might want to try it.

The 4 of Bagley, Bogdan, WCS and Hield has played 15 games and 68 minutes. This combination has an almost double digit negative net rating.

If you add Fox they have played 10 games as a 5 man line-up with 24 minutes and have a minus 14.7 rating.

Bogdanovic, WCS and Bagley have played in 20 games for 118 minutes and have a -13.6 rating. Bogdan and WCS is .05 and Bogdan and Bagley is -1.7. The Bogdan, Bagley, WCS mix is dragging both down.
 
The lineup I am proposing and the one many fans want that includes arguably our 4 best players --- Fox Buddy Bogs Bagley --- plus Willie has played 24 minutes and you want to tell me it won't work? Have you ever taken a statistics class or read a book that teaches the concept of a statistically significant sample size? The data you are presenting is meaningless. You cannot conclude the aforementioned group will not work because you do not have the relevant data to make such a claim.
Bogdan Fox and Bagley have played 23 games for 150 minutes and have a -2.3 net rating. Interestingly, Bogdan, Beli and Bagley have played 16 games for 66 minutes and have a 11.9 net rating. More interesting, Fox, Bagley and your boy Jackson have played in 31 games for 129 minutes for a 13.1 rating.
 
Avery Bradley just shuts down Buddy Hield with his smothering man on man defense. The Kings need a Big who sets some mean picks IMO. That whole Clippers squad plays good D.

He shuts down Buddy because:

Buddy is a poor ISO player and a poor ball handler.

Since, he really cannot create
Effectively, Buddy becomes one dimensional against defending 2s.

Buddy will still get his looks.
People always complain he doesn’t get up enough shots.

That’s simple and it’s been addressed. He’s not a complete player. If could create or ISO he would be in the All Star game.

Hield is a fantastic shooter. But, to think he’s going to get increased shot attempts is not going to happen unless his overall game improves.
 
After watching the game replay, the Kings were closer than I thought in the game. But No one putting a body on Harrell too many times - a bit reminiscent of Nurkic abusing them at home awhile back. Their interior defense goes through periods of porousness too often in games and it seemed to cost em in this one. They were at 5 back a couple of times with enough time in the 4th - could not muster up the defense......this game has the Clippers winning the season head-to-head series now on top of giving up a full game in the conference. Also the Clippers are the last team in the Western playoff position currently.

Several of the upper playoff teams are strengthening their positions right now and the Jazz are streaking, which doesn't bode well playoff wise, though there are plenty of games left for other teams to go head-to-head and beat up on one another some more. Pulling in the 8th seed is still reachable and would be an excellent learning experience. Tonight did not help though - a win would've put the Kings just 1 back. The Mavericks and Pelicans are falling back as well which doesn't help statistically to rein the middle pack in more.
 
Not all best players fit well together. That point is the whole reason NBA teams have poured so much into stats departments. Your comment in NBA circa 1980.
NBA circa 1980? Seriously? You think that before people started throwing advanced stats around that a coaching staff couldn't figure out which lineups worked best together. They were just winging it I guess.

You're speaking as if you have some superior knowledge that I'm not comprehending. The advanced stats are easy enough to read and comprehend. It's a tool. Basketball is not a mathematics equation. That net rating when WCS and Bagley are in the game with Bogi can can go one of two ways. Throw your hands up and say, those guys can't play together (stat head) or figure out how to better utilize them together to get that magical net rating higher (coaching). These coaches get paid big bucks. If all we're going to do is use stats to determine lineups then coaches are irrelevant.

It is not old school to try to figure out how to use your best players on the floor at the same time.
 
I don't like Bogie as the primary ball handler for the 2nd unit. It hasn't really worked for weeks now outside of a few games. I've always thought of him as a secondary ball handler and the offense hitting the skids for the 2nd unit is becoming more an more apparent as each game goes by. The Kings really need a legitimate backup PG.
 
I never wanted to reflexively bash WCS. But, I just think we've seen enough. Please trade for someone who has some low post skill or is good defender or good forbid both. His superpower is catching/finishing well timed ally oops. Am I missing something?
I will be very upset if we give him a contract bigger than Bjelicia’s contract. Bjelicia, Harrell, and Randle are all better players and they all got paid this last offseason. That should be the benchmark for Cauley-Stein’s next contract.
 
Jackson has been completely brutal for the last 5 games.....

17.4mins: 3.6pts 2 rebs 1asts on 32% FG. Has only made two 3pters in that stretch. It's too bad because he was just getting so much love from Kings fans and Zach Lowe.........only to revert back to the JJ we all know too well. I'm sorry, but he's just not the answer at SF. Extremely inconsistent and we get completely 0 out of him when his shots aren't falling.

I don't like Bogie as the primary ball handler for the 2nd unit. It hasn't really worked for weeks now outside of a few games. I've always thought of him as a secondary ball handler and the offense hitting the skids for the 2nd unit is becoming more an more apparent as each game goes by. The Kings really need a legitimate backup PG.
I agree with this. We're asking way too much out of Bogdan with that role. He's a SG all the way. With the way we're looking, I think we just have way too many holes on this team to make a playoff push...so I wouldn't make a big trade for a backup PG. Not sure who that would be. Trey Burke is a possibility, but I don't think we can give up much. Goran Dragic is interesting, but he's still out for a while.
 
I am at least presenting data... you might want to try it.

The 4 of Bagley, Bogdan, WCS and Hield has played 15 games and 68 minutes. This combination has an almost double digit negative net rating.

If you add Fox they have played 10 games as a 5 man line-up with 24 minutes and have a minus 14.7 rating.

Bogdanovic, WCS and Bagley have played in 20 games for 118 minutes and have a -13.6 rating. Bogdan and WCS is .05 and Bogdan and Bagley is -1.7. The Bogdan, Bagley, WCS mix is dragging both down.
You are not differentiating between meaningful and meaningless data. You are not filtering the "gold" from the dross. 3-man and 4-man lineups have little to no value because, well, NBA basketball is a game of 5-on-5. I am sure you are aware how much difference one player can make for better or worse. The beat writer for the Kings tweeted the Kings best lineups by net rating is Fox, Hield, Shumpert, Bagley, Cauley-Stein +20.7 (80 minutes). Can you assert if the Kings were to replace Shump with Boggy this lineup would get worse? Logic would dictate if not immediately once this group gained comfort and experience they would be better. You do not have a basis to make claim otherwise since Bogs is the superior player 8 days a week.
 
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Bogdan Fox and Bagley have played 23 games for 150 minutes and have a -2.3 net rating. Interestingly, Bogdan, Beli and Bagley have played 16 games for 66 minutes and have a 11.9 net rating. More interesting, Fox, Bagley and your boy Jackson have played in 31 games for 129 minutes for a 13.1 rating.
Wow fascinating data...if only the NBA was played 3-on-3.
 
NBA circa 1980? Seriously? You think that before people started throwing advanced stats around that a coaching staff couldn't figure out which lineups worked best together. They were just winging it I guess.

You're speaking as if you have some superior knowledge that I'm not comprehending. The advanced stats are easy enough to read and comprehend. It's a tool. Basketball is not a mathematics equation. That net rating when WCS and Bagley are in the game with Bogi can can go one of two ways. Throw your hands up and say, those guys can't play together (stat head) or figure out how to better utilize them together to get that magical net rating higher (coaching). These coaches get paid big bucks. If all we're going to do is use stats to determine lineups then coaches are irrelevant.

It is not old school to try to figure out how to use your best players on the floor at the same time.
Yes, I’m telling you for a fact that advanced statistics have impacted how coaches devise line-ups and what players get what minutes. It’s also true your 5 “best players” may not be the best 5 on the court. You really need to do more reading on the impact of analytics on sports.
 
You are not differentiating between meaningful and meaningless data. You are not filtering the "gold" from the dross. 3-man and 4-man lineups have little to no value because, well, NBA basketball is a game of 5-on-5. I am sure you are aware how much difference one player can make for better or worse. The beat writer for the Kings tweeted the Kings best lineups by net rating is Fox, Hield, Shumpert, Bagley, Cauley-Stein +20.7 (80 minutes). Can you assert if the Kings were to replace Shump with Boggy this lineup would get worse? Logic would dictate if not immediately once this group gained comfort and experience they would be better. You do not a substantive basis to make the claim otherwise since Bogs is the superior player 8 days a week.
First I’m not using a single data point. Second , analytics use 3 and 4 man line-ups all the time. Third, yes I can tell you if you replace Shumpert with Bogdan the NetRating drops to -14.7.... any experienced coach will tell you the best 5 doesn’t always equal the best team.
 
You are not differentiating between meaningful and meaningless data. You are not filtering the "gold" from the dross. 3-man and 4-man lineups have little to no value because, well, NBA basketball is a game of 5-on-5. I am sure you are aware how much difference one player can make for better or worse. The beat writer for the Kings tweeted the Kings best lineups by net rating is Fox, Hield, Shumpert, Bagley, Cauley-Stein +20.7 (80 minutes). Can you assert if the Kings were to replace Shump with Boggy this lineup would get worse? Logic would dictate if not immediately once this group gained comfort and experience they would be better. You do not have a basis to make claim otherwise since Bogs is the superior player 8 days a week.
BTW the best line-up is affected by where you cut off the minutes... Beli, Bogi, Ferrell, Jackson and Giles have a +41.3 but Joeger has only played it 22 minutes.
 
First I’m not using a single data point. Second , analytics use 3 and 4 man line-ups all the time. Third, yes I can tell you if you replace Shumpert with Bogdan the NetRating drops to -14.7.... any experienced coach will tell you the best 5 doesn’t always equal the best team.
In 24 minutes! That is statistically irrelevant. It is meaningless. Set aside for a moment the net rating. Pretend you didn't know the net rating. On what basis would a team of Fox-Buddy-Shump-MB3-Willie would be better than a team of Fox-Buddy-Bogs-MB3-Willie? What does Shump do that Bogs does not or cannot? What value is Shump providing that Bogs does not? What is the inherent conflict created when this switch occurs? You cannot provide logical answers because none exist. Drawing conclusion based on 22 minute sample size would be like cutting your 1st round pick in the first month of his rookie season. I should not have to explain this. If you want draw reasonable conclusions from lineup combinations, I would suggest starting by throwing out all the 4-man combos, all of the 3-man combos and all of the 5-man combos that have not played minimum 100 minutes. Otherwise there are too many variables unaccounted for or not enough data to confident in your conclusion.
 
In 24 minutes! That is statistically irrelevant. It is meaningless. Set aside for a moment the net rating. Pretend you didn't know the net rating. On what basis would a team of Fox-Buddy-Shump-MB3-Willie would be better than a team of Fox-Buddy-Bogs-MB3-Willie? What does Shump do that Bogs does not or cannot? What value is Shump providing that Bogs does not? What is the inherent conflict created when this switch occurs? You cannot provide logical answers because none exist. Drawing conclusion based on 22 minute sample size would be like cutting your 1st round pick in the first month of his rookie season. I should not have to explain this. If you want draw reasonable conclusions from lineup combinations, I would suggest starting by throwing out all the 4-man combos, all of the 3-man combos and all of the 5-man combos that have not played minimum 100 minutes. Otherwise there are too many variables unaccounted for or not enough data to confident in your conclusion.
First off your premise of throwing them out 3 and 4 man combos shows a complete lack of understanding of how sports analytics is done. Also you 100 hours 5 man hurdle would eliminate almost all game data. Of course, teams regularly also chart practice minutes which we don’t get to see.

As for the basketball analysis behind the numbers, Bogi’s game is built on pick and roll and back door cuts off the ball. In a line-up with Fox, Bagley and WCS it’s pretty easy to see the lane might become crowded and impact his offensive game. Also neither WCS or Bagley are good post passes limiting some of the plays we have seen with Giles.

Shumpert is a better defender so him having a higher net rating in that combination isn’t really beyond imagination.
 
I don't like Bogie as the primary ball handler for the 2nd unit. It hasn't really worked for weeks now outside of a few games. I've always thought of him as a secondary ball handler and the offense hitting the skids for the 2nd unit is becoming more an more apparent as each game goes by. The Kings really need a legitimate backup PG.
Have not watched whole games for awhile, but yes, Bogdonavic has a tendency to over-dribble and hold on to the ball too long. sometimes.
I would like to see the Kings big-men get more mid-range jumpshots mixed in. On defense boxing-out and weak-side help still an issue. Bogdonavic occasionally also just leaves a 3 pt shooter to a free shot during ball rotations - saw one of those yesterday.
 
Yes, I’m telling you for a fact that advanced statistics have impacted how coaches devise line-ups and what players get what minutes. It’s also true your 5 “best players” may not be the best 5 on the court. You really need to do more reading on the impact of analytics on sports.
I think you may need to read more about coaching so you can apply all these numbers your drowning in to the actual human element and x and o's of the game.
 
I don't like Bogie as the primary ball handler for the 2nd unit. It hasn't really worked for weeks now outside of a few games. I've always thought of him as a secondary ball handler and the offense hitting the skids for the 2nd unit is becoming more an more apparent as each game goes by. The Kings really need a legitimate backup PG.
although a lot of inconsistency on offense comes from the second unit itself which would be hard for any PG to fix.

if JJ is not hitting the floor shrinks, and you basically have inexperienced rookie bigs plus an undersized guard to run the offense with. thats a lot to effectively overcome all the time.
 
What they need is an athletic bruiser, or a Harrell clone. There are a few guys in the 2nd round that might fill that bill, but would need some development first. Someone like a Gorgui Dieng, or perhaps a Richaun Holmes would fill the bill. I went back and rewatched the 4th quarter, and I'm not sure what all the Willie complaining is about. Harrell scored a total of 4 pts on Willie when Willie was actually guarding him, and that's counting the inbounds play, where Willie started to defend the player who took the ball off the inbounds, who then passed it to Harrell for a backdoor behind Willie. The other was the one where Harrell simply out hustled Willie for the rebound and scored.

I suspect that the one everyone was talking about was when Willie was guarding Harrell out on the perimeter, and Harrell ran Willie into what turned out to be a moving/pushing pick. Willie just flat out stopped, and the only thing I can think of his that he heard the whistle and stopped. Sometimes there's a time delay between when the whistle is blown and when we can hear it on TV. In any event, the basket didn't count.

The reason we lost the game had nothing to do with Willie. It had to do with us shooting 39.8% overall for the game and a paltry 22.2% from the three. By the way, and by no means am I trying to pick on Shumpert, but guess who took the most three pt shots tonight? Yep, Mr. Shumpert. He did shoot 33% from the three tonight, which isn't great, but not totally horrible either. Basically the whole team pretty much sucked from behind the line. Can someone please tell Bjelica to take the open 3 pt shot.
I think it's worth pointing out that Richaun Holmes coulda been had for pennies on the dollar this offseason by any team.. What'd he cost PHX --- A future 2nd rd pick?
 
The closer you look, the better the Clippers defense becomes.
The Kings' crummy shooting is a direct result of being well defended.
The Kings's style is no secret. They are not sneaking up on anyone. The offense is pretty simple. The good teams have figured out how to slow the team down. Offensive production is now around 100 points, sometimes in the 90s. That is much different than the first 25 games.
 

Kingster

Hall of Famer
I'm going to kick the hornets nest. Has Joeger got the team as far as he can? Meaning, is the team stalled because of the players or the coaching?

Yes, we've exceeded season expectations and he's done a great job bringing Fox along (or did Fox do it himself?). But is this is good as he gets with this type of talent?

Saying there is no one else out there better than Joeger deflects the question. What is the cause of our less than inspiring play as of late?

I think some stubbornness and lack of creativity from coaching staff is part of the issue.
I only have what many would consider small beefs with the coaching staff. For example, I can't stand that they even allow the guards to do these "bowling ball" passes that seem prevalent around the league. Buddy Hield doing that kind of pass is an absolute recipe for disaster and should immediately be stopped. It doesn't take an inordinate amount of common sense to realize that a bowling ball pass with one hand, not two, and with a wind up rather than a "snap" two handed pass, is not only more subject to misdirection but also easier for the opposition to anticipate. Another small beef: How about when there is a loose ball picking up the ball with freaking two hands instead of trying to dribble it into your possession? This team is absolutely incredibly supremely horrible when it comes to getting possession of 50-50 balls and the coaching staff has to take some responsibility for it. It's a magnificent testament to the softness of this team that they are so horrendous in this aspect of the game. If anyone doesn't think this team is soft, just look at what happens when there's a loose ball on the floor. I've seen bird-watchers have more activity than Kings' players going after loose balls.

All those small potato compaints aside, as others have mentioned, Bjelica (except for the Grizzlies' game) has been horrible. Shump has been horrible. I don't think their performances have anything to do with poor coaching by Joerger. Joerger is left to rearrange the deck chairs, many of which don't fit together very well, especially because Bagley and Giles (and even Fox) are far from finished products. He's probably doing about the best he can do. There's only so many "creative" solutions you can come up with when you are dealing with rookies and sophomores on your team; the inexperience just doesn't allow them to incorporate creative defensive and offensive solutions without screwing them up entirely. I can't stand it that he's starting Bjelica because Bjelica just continues to get killed by the opposition on defense and be a nothing on offense. I can't stand that he plays Shumpert, despite a horrendous consecutive shooting performances and his hero ball. But he can't just sit those guys and "lose" them from this team. He's left with the kiddie-corps if he does, and that's waiving the white flag on any playoff aspirations. I think Joerger continues to do what he does until it's clear to a non-basketball fan, or even a minority owner, that the playoff hopes are dead and gone. Then he'll play the kids much more and Bjelica and Shump may sit almost entirely. The caveat to all of the above is if there is a trade before the deadline, which could allow Joerger to rejigger the entire lineup, which Joerger, more than any of us, must dream about on a nightly basis.
 
First off your premise of throwing them out 3 and 4 man combos shows a complete lack of understanding of how sports analytics is done. Also you 100 hours 5 man hurdle would eliminate almost all game data. Of course, teams regularly also chart practice minutes which we don’t get to see.

As for the basketball analysis behind the numbers, Bogi’s game is built on pick and roll and back door cuts off the ball. In a line-up with Fox, Bagley and WCS it’s pretty easy to see the lane might become crowded and impact his offensive game. Also neither WCS or Bagley are good post passes limiting some of the plays we have seen with Giles.

Shumpert is a better defender so him having a higher net rating in that combination isn’t really beyond imagination.
I disagree with this sentiment: Bogi’s game is built on pick and roll and back door cuts off the ball. That doesn't ring true. Bogi's game is built on being a fundamentally sound basketball with combo guard skills approaching elite level. Bogi can guard three positions. Certainly with his passing and handles and deep shot he spreads the floor more than Shump. Your argument has no merit when you are concerned about floor spacing. Bogi gives you more floor spacing than Shump. He also uses Willie and Bagley as potent weapons out of the screen and roll. He is more of complementary player in all regards. Things will simply run more smoothly and efficiently with Bogi on the floor with time and reps because he's a better player. Period.

Here's the thing about Bogi's season so far and why I am proponent of acquiring Lin. Bogi is investing a large amount of time running the PG with the second unit. This is the role Yogurt has assigned to him and he has done a fine job. But it is hurting his shot and inability to make his three ball. As good as Boggy can be with the ball we need to get him off the ball more so he can rediscover that three point shot that can be as accurate as Buddy. Boggy is 35% on 3s after 39% on 3s last year. He should be over 40%. I would expect this were he inserted with the starters and feeding off attention to Fox and Buddy and Bagley on the block. Yogi is not a reliable backup PG, he is more of a combo and Mason failed us when given the opportunity. We need Lin. If the coach had more confidence in Mason or Yogi to run the show with the 2nd unit, Bogs would be a starter where he belongs. You don't see this because you are getting lost in minutiae irrelevancy and how you think sports analytics should be done.

If 100 minutes is too much set the minimum to 50 minutes less garbage time. That is one full game to start to draw reasonable conclusions. It is as easy however to misinterpret the data as to interpret accurately without context and additional variables. In general sports analytics is a scam. You still have to have an eye for talent and weigh many many variables appropriately. PDA claimed himself an "analytics guru" with the "holy grail" and proceeded to draft Ben and Stauskas. The most analytics-based GM Daryl Morey has done a crap job lately when you would expect if his analytics team were so damn insightful he would get better at finding diamonds in the rough than worse. The Rockets have held up only because Harden is having one of the greatest scoring stretches ever and they acquired Rivers and Faried for free. A lot of their analytics-based moves in the last year have been busts.
 
I only have what many would consider small beefs with the coaching staff. For example, I can't stand that they even allow the guards to do these "bowling ball" passes that seem prevalent around the league. Buddy Hield doing that kind of pass is an absolute recipe for disaster and should immediately be stopped. It doesn't take an inordinate amount of common sense to realize that a bowling ball pass with one hand, not two, and with a wind up rather than a "snap" two handed pass, is not only more subject to misdirection but also easier for the opposition to anticipate. Another small beef: How about when there is a loose ball picking up the ball with freaking two hands instead of trying to dribble it into your possession? This team is absolutely incredibly supremely horrible when it comes to getting possession of 50-50 balls and the coaching staff has to take some responsibility for it. It's a magnificent testament to the softness of this team that they are so horrendous in this aspect of the game. If anyone doesn't think this team is soft, just look at what happens when there's a loose ball on the floor. I've seen bird-watchers have more activity than Kings' players going after loose balls.

All those small potato compaints aside, as others have mentioned, Bjelica (except for the Grizzlies' game) has been horrible. Shump has been horrible. I don't think their performances have anything to do with poor coaching by Joerger. Joerger is left to rearrange the deck chairs, many of which don't fit together very well, especially because Bagley and Giles (and even Fox) are far from finished products. He's probably doing about the best he can do. There's only so many "creative" solutions you can come up with when you are dealing with rookies and sophomores on your team; the inexperience just doesn't allow them to incorporate creative defensive and offensive solutions without screwing them up entirely. I can't stand it that he's starting Bjelica because Bjelica just continues to get killed by the opposition on defense and be a nothing on offense. I can't stand that he plays Shumpert, despite a horrendous consecutive shooting performances and his hero ball. But he can't just sit those guys and "lose" them from this team. He's left with the kiddie-corps if he does, and that's waiving the white flag on any playoff aspirations. I think Joerger continues to do what he does until it's clear to a non-basketball fan, or even a minority owner, that the playoff hopes are dead and gone. Then he'll play the kids much more and Bjelica and Shump may sit almost entirely. The caveat to all of the above is if there is a trade before the deadline, which could allow Joerger to rejigger the entire lineup, which Joerger, more than any of us, must dream about on a nightly basis.
Joerger has all the incentive in the world to win these games. A 4 year extension would likely be his if he gets this team into the playoffs. He is a victim of his own stubbornness. There was no reason not to start Bagley against Jackson and the Grizzlies. I get more why Bogs does not start as I detailed above.