Today is July 5th. Looking ONLY at last year, if we ignore the 9 trades executed last year on July 6th (first day following the Moratorium), there were another 11 trades that happened before the season started, including players like John Collins, Obi Toppin, and Grant Williams. The summer blockbusters - the two trades that first shuffled Jrue Holiday, Damian Lillard, DeAndre Ayton, Grayson Allen, Jusuf Nurkic and others around between the Bucks, Suns, and Blazers, and then the subsequent one sending Jrue Holiday from the Blazers to the Celtics for Malcolm Brodgon, Robert Williams and picks, happened much later in the summer - September 27th and October 1st, to be precise.
Moreover, it's seeming very likely that DDR will be S&Ted *somewhere*, because he ain't staying in Chicago and he ain't settling for an MLE.
The defeatism here - before the Moratorium is even over - is just silly.