King Keegan

[iowamcnabb]

He does get blown by on straight line drives against certain players but I think part of that is not necessarily foot speed but he needs to get started moving toward the rim a second faster, something he can learn. Brown’s “defending without fouling” has him playing a bit more conservatively imo. I think he actually does a good job guarding guys like PG and BI, great actually. The guy that has given him the hardest time is Russ.

 

[Tetsujin]

https://twitter.com/statuses/1633221927174307840

 

[ESP47]

I think Jayson Tatum was brought up by a few people during the pre-draft period as a best-case scenario for Keegan in the NBA. So far their respective rookie stats are pretty similar. Tatum's shooting splits are about 2.5% points higher across the board. Also, not shown below is that Tatum averaged 3 3pt attempts per game and Keegan is averaging 6 3pt attempts per game. Here's the numbers:

J. TATUM (30.5 min) 13.9 pt 5.0 rb 1.6 at 0.7 bk 1.0 st 2.0 pf 1.4 to [fg 47.5 / 3p 43.4 / ft 82.6]
MURRAY (29.8 min) 11.9 pt 4.6rb 1.2 at 0.5 bk 0.8 st 1.9 pf 0.8 to [fg 44.7 / 3p 40.9 / ft 80.3]

Keegan's pre-All Star and post-All Star splits are closer than I expected them to be (small sample size is a factor though) but one stat that jumps off the page -- he's averaging 1.9 assists per game against 0.1 turnovers per game in the 7 games since the All-Star break. A very encouraging sign! He's also nearly doubled his steals per game from 0.7 to 1.3 so that's another trend to keep an eye on.

I don't know, I'm not a fan of comparisons like this because they look comparable stat wise but the tape tells a completely different story. Tatum is as fluid and athletic as it gets with a quick first step. Keegan isn't nearly as fluid, has average athleticism and a below average first step. They're very different physically and that goes a long way toward a player's ceiling.

A sharp shooting TJ Warren is probably closer to Keegan's ceiling IMO.

 

[206Fan]

I think Jayson Tatum was brought up by a few people during the pre-draft period as a best-case scenario for Keegan in the NBA. So far their respective rookie stats are pretty similar. Tatum's shooting splits are about 2.5% points higher across the board. Also, not shown below is that Tatum averaged 3 3pt attempts per game and Keegan is averaging 6 3pt attempts per game. Here's the numbers:

J. TATUM (30.5 min) 13.9 pt 5.0 rb 1.6 at 0.7 bk 1.0 st 2.0 pf 1.4 to [fg 47.5 / 3p 43.4 / ft 82.6]
MURRAY (29.8 min) 11.9 pt 4.6rb 1.2 at 0.5 bk 0.8 st 1.9 pf 0.8 to [fg 44.7 / 3p 40.9 / ft 80.3]

Keegan's pre-All Star and post-All Star splits are closer than I expected them to be (small sample size is a factor though) but one stat that jumps off the page -- he's averaging 1.9 assists per game against 0.1 turnovers per game in the 7 games since the All-Star break. A very encouraging sign! He's also nearly doubled his steals per game from 0.7 to 1.3 so that's another trend to keep an eye on.

Woah, I think you’ve got to pump the brakes on this comparison. They only have a few things in common. Their size and shooting ability. Rookie Tatum attempted far less 3s because he did a lot of his scoring in the mid range and at the rim. Tatum averaged 3.2 FTA to Keegan’s 1.1 FTA.

Tatum was special because of his ability to handle the ball, create his own shot, and score out of isolations… all as a rookie!

Look at this game by Tatum in his first year:

He’s really ahead of where we want Keegan to be as a shot creator. We’re lucky if Keegan puts the ball on the deck once a game. Tatum did it all game long in that video.

Just a reminder, at 22, Tatum was a 2x All-Star averaging 26.4pts 7.4rebs 4.3asts. The Tatum comparison is just too rich for me. I think Keegan will eventually become his own mold of a player and people will probably start comparing prospects to Keegan.

 

[hrdboild]

I'm probably in the minority on this but I feel that the age issue is negligible. The NCAA to NBA learning curve is pretty comparable for everyone regardless of what age they come in. I really only pay attention to the age differences if it's clear a player is dominating at the NCAA level more because of physical maturity than skill. Keegan didn't stay four years in college beating up on teenagers, he just go there later.

I also think if you take in the full picture of Keegan's sophomore season and his first season so far with the Kings, he has a lot more offensive tools to offer but he's been very selective in how he utilizes them -- preferring to let Fox and Sabonis handle the playmaking and score his points by spacing the floor for them. He's not isolating the way Tatum does because that's not his role. I think that demonstrates remarkable maturity for a player his age to recognize not just his own limitations but how to compliment the strengths of his teammates. I also wouldn't knock a guy for making threes at a high volume instead of pump faking and dribbling into a pull-up two. Most people would rather have the three, right?

My point isn't really that he's the same type of player as Tatum but rather that he's not that far off in terms of production at the same point in their careers. If a guy gets me 30 I don't care if he did it with more jab steps, long twos, and post-ups or catch and shoot jumpers. The end result is the same. And I really want to emphasize that the two areas where Keegan was elite in college -- catch and shoot threes and turnover % -- he remains absolutely elite in the NBA (so far). He's as much a part of this rise to #2 in the West as Fox, Sabonis, and the other new additions have been.

Maybe he's not going to be the 30ppg MVP candidate version of Tatum we've seen this year but it's probably also fair to adjust Keegan's ceiling higher than just a deluxe role-player based on existing evidence.

 

[iowamcnabb]

Maybe I am remembering wrong but wasn’t there concern Tatum wasn’t athletic enough to take guys off the dribble? Or maybe it was a question of whether or not the way he scored would translate.

 

[KingsFanSince85]

I don't know, I'm not a fan of comparisons like this because they look comparable stat wise but the tape tells a completely different story. Tatum is as fluid and athletic as it gets with a quick first step. Keegan isn't nearly as fluid, has average athleticism and a below average first step. They're very different physically and that goes a long way toward a player's ceiling.

A sharp shooting TJ Warren is probably closer to Keegan's ceiling IMO.

That's why there's these factors known as improvement and development.

Furthermore, if Keegan's "ceiling" (I hate the use of that word in this context) is TJ Warren .... what a buzzkill.

 

[ESP47]

That's why there's these factors known as improvement and development.

Furthermore, if Keegan's "ceiling" (I hate the use of that word in this context) is TJ Warren .... what a buzzkill.

Well yeah of course you can improve but you can't really improve much on how fluid you move or how athletic you are when you're in your mid 20s. He should be able to improve on his ball handling, defense, rebounding, multi layer scoring abilities and his shooting but he isn't going to put in work and all the sudden be able to move like Tatum does. That's just something you're either born with or not.

I don't think a better shooting version of a guy who scored 18-20ppg for a few years is a bad thing at all. I'd be perfectly happy with a longer prime and more efficient TJ Warren type player.

 

[SacTownKid]

Woah, I think you’ve got to pump the brakes on this comparison. They only have a few things in common. Their size and shooting ability. Rookie Tatum attempted far less 3s because he did a lot of his scoring in the mid range and at the rim. Tatum averaged 3.2 FTA to Keegan’s 1.1 FTA.

Tatum was special because of his ability to handle the ball, create his own shot, and score out of isolations… all as a rookie!

Look at this game by Tatum in his first year:

He’s really ahead of where we want Keegan to be as a shot creator. We’re lucky if Keegan puts the ball on the deck once a game. Tatum did it all game long in that video.

Just a reminder, at 22, Tatum was a 2x All-Star averaging 26.4pts 7.4rebs 4.3asts. The Tatum comparison is just too rich for me. I think Keegan will eventually become his own mold of a player and people will probably start comparing prospects to Keegan.

Yeah, Keegan is not even close to Tatum when it comes to his first step and that's almost all there is for an elite guard looking to attack. And yes, Tatum in iso vs. Keegan in iso is like comparing the moon to a pebble. Keegan doesn't even show up on the stats due to such limited attempts. Murray is a different type of player and attempting to even make him someone like Tatum at this stage would likely do more harm than good. Keegans missing ingredient in his game is still is his ability to get to the rim with his back to the basket off of a single drop step. That's where his rangy length served him well in college. If he can get to that move I do think his FT numbers will climb if he learns to sell the contact he'll be getting.

 

[SacTownKid]

Maybe I am remembering wrong but wasn’t there concern Tatum wasn’t athletic enough to take guys off the dribble? Or maybe it was a question of whether or not the way he scored would translate.

There was chatter, and it was wrong. Guard skills make up a whole lot of difference when it comes to that kind of thing, but his first step was always elite as was his pull up game potential and the ability to run pick and roll.

 

[Insomniacal Fan]

Well yeah of course you can improve but you can't really improve much on how fluid you move or how athletic you are when you're in your mid 20s. He should be able to improve on his ball handling, defense, rebounding, multi layer scoring abilities and his shooting but he isn't going to put in work and all the sudden be able to move like Tatum does. That's just something you're either born with or not.

I don't think a better shooting version of a guy who scored 18-20ppg for a few years is a bad thing at all. I'd be perfectly happy with a longer prime and more efficient TJ Warren type player.

The only thing (statistically) that Keegan is missing to get to TJ Warren's best season is shots. So it seems like you're saying Keegan has already bumped into his low ceiling. That is kinda a buzzkill.

 

[ESP47]

The only thing (statistically) that Keegan is missing to get to TJ Warren's best season is shots. So it seems like you're saying Keegan has already bumped into his low ceiling. That is kinda a buzzkill.

How's that a buzzkill? Thinking that 20-22ppg is possible in a couple years isn't a buzzkill to me.

 

[Insomniacal Fan]

How's that a buzzkill? Thinking that 20-22ppg is possible in a couple years isn't a buzzkill to me.

Give Keegan 5 more shots a game today, and he will be a 19 ppg scorer like Warren was.

If you think that's the best that he can be, then he is already the best he can be, it's just a matter of the team feeding him more.

 

[KingsFanSince85]

Well yeah of course you can improve but you can't really improve much on how fluid you move or how athletic you are when you're in your mid 20s. He should be able to improve on his ball handling, defense, rebounding, multi layer scoring abilities and his shooting but he isn't going to put in work and all the sudden be able to move like Tatum does. That's just something you're either born with or not.

While I concede that some are born with more natural gifts than others and that remains a huge separator, much of what you say here just isn't true at all.

Movement and fluidity is definitely something that can be learned and improved upon. Even athleticism can be improved to a smaller degree.

Now, those possessing much greater natural gifts won't have work as hard at it, if at all, and will develop skill sets at a much faster rate, but still...

Circling back to the TJ Warren comparison -- yes, that'd be a buzzkill. Keegan has the ability to be a much better player than that.

I really don't understand why some fans are so intent on placing ceilings and floors on players. Especially ones they have never worked with nor have expertise in player development.

 

[Telemachus]

https://twitter.com/statuses/1633577984627027972

 

[ESP47]

Give Keegan 5 more shots a game today, and he will be a 19 ppg scorer like Warren was.

If you think that's the best that he can be, then he is already the best he can be, it's just a matter of the team feeding him more.

Not all 19ppg scorers are the same. Give Keegan 5 more shots a game and his efficiently will almost certainly go down.

Look at the difference in high usage Dallas Barnes and medium usage Kings Barnes. The difference in his efficiency is night and day. It's not quite as simple as just chuck up some more shots and be a better player because of that. There's a lot of 12ppg scorers in this league and not many of them will become 19ppg scorers.

While I concede that some are born with more natural gifts than others and that remains a huge separator, much of what you say here just isn't true at all.

Movement and fluidity is definitely something that can be learned and improved upon. Even athleticism can be improved to a smaller degree.

Now, those possessing much greater natural gifts won't have work as hard at it, if at all, and will develop skill sets at a much faster rate, but still...

Circling back to the TJ Warren comparison -- yes, that'd be a buzzkill. Keegan has the ability to be a much better player than that.

I really don't understand why some fans are so intent on placing ceilings and floors on players. Especially ones they have never worked with nor have expertise in player development.

I just simply don't agree at all that a player with Keegan's athleticism and movement can improve upon that enough to even get him to sniff Tatum's natural level. Keegan is fairly stiff, has a slow first step, lacks lateral quickness and has average athleticism. It's a mile between where he's at and where Tatum is at. I've never seen a player go from Keegan's level to Tatum's level when it comes to movement.

He's going to improve on a lot of things but he's not going to be like Tatum or Jaylen Brown or Antman or any of those above average athletes. His game is going to be different than theirs and that's ok but it certainly affects his ability to be a 25-30ppg scorer when he doesn't have a quick first step that can collapse defenses.

If you think that 20-22ppg is a buzzkill, then that's fine. I think higher than that is unrealistic. Not unattainable, but certainly not something I would expect out of him. To me it's kind of crazy to say that a 10ppg improvement from a guy in the rookie of the year running is a buzzkill. That's pretty impressive if you ask me.

Well if I followed the fallacy that one must not speak on anything they aren't an expert in, then I guess I'll have to leave the board. You'll probably have to leave the board as well since I doubt you've played or coach or trained at the NBA level. I'm not sure if anyone would be left here to be honest. And what about people that only flip burgers? Are they only allowed to talk about flipping burgers for the rest of their lives? I'd go crazy if I was only allowed to talk about the work I do and my degree. Lets just talk basketball man.

 

[hrdboild]

Yeah, Keegan is not even close to Tatum when it comes to his first step and that's almost all there is for an elite guard looking to attack. And yes, Tatum in iso vs. Keegan in iso is like comparing the moon to a pebble. Keegan doesn't even show up on the stats due to such limited attempts. Murray is a different type of player and attempting to even make him someone like Tatum at this stage would likely do more harm than good. Keegans missing ingredient in his game is still is his ability to get to the rim with his back to the basket off of a single drop step. That's where his rangy length served him well in college. If he can get to that move I do think his FT numbers will climb if he learns to sell the contact he'll be getting.

You're taking this comparison thing way too literal. As I said before, my goal wasn't to say that Keegan can play like Jason Tatum. Jayson Tatum was about the loftiest comparison anyone had for Keegan Murray as a scorer in the NBA because of their similar size and Keegan's role at Iowa accounting for 1/4 of the team's offense. People weren't calling Keegan a 3 and D role-player a year ago when he led all of NCAA Div. 1 in points scored. The question was how well his offense would translate when he lacks the elite athleticism of the more hyped prospects and if you compare their rookie seasons, they're actually very comparable to the point where I don't think it's a pie in the sky projection for Keegan to become a #1 scorer on a playoff team in the future.

You've watched the Kings play this season -- the reason they have the #1 offense is because they don't isolate and try to take defenders off the dribble (with the exception of Fox and sometimes Monk). What they do instead is rely on dribble hand-offs to create separation and then attack the rotating defense with skip passes to shooters and back door cuts for dunks. In that context I think Keegan could certainly grow into a 25ppg scoring threat without ever taking a single pull-up elbow jumper.

 

[The_Jamal]

Maybe I am remembering wrong but wasn’t there concern Tatum wasn’t athletic enough to take guys off the dribble? Or maybe it was a question of whether or not the way he scored would translate.

I remember the old Rudy guy comp and where people didn't think he was like super athletic. Took too many bad shots in college.

I don't think anyone expected the leap he took though. Especially on the defensive end. His ceiling came out of nowhere.

I just don't want to cap Keegans ceiling yet. The last few months, he's shown WAY more creations moved, both scoring and playmaking. And in terms of the defense, he's outstanding most of the time when he's matched with actual wings, but struggles a bit vs the elite rim driving guards. And really, Russ is the only guy I can remember of that archetype just absolutely cooking him.

If I had to bet on a ceiling outcome, I'd say MPJ with better defensive versatility and WAY more unselfish. But in terms of off ball shooting from a big wing; it's literally those 2 guys and all stars with that skill. Will be fun to see what else Keegan can develop with it

 

[Tetsujin]

https://twitter.com/statuses/1633717281384697856

Keegan is one weird dude lol

 

[TaxMan]

Keegan compared his game to Kris Middleton. I scratched my head at the time but sure does look like a fair potential outcome in a couple years. I would be more than happy with a Middleton number 3 on this team if that’s how it plays out.

 

[TaxMan]

https://twitter.com/statuses/1633717281384697856

Keegan is one weird dude lol

He is, and I love that he just doesn’t give an F what anyone thinks.

 

[mrlaze]

Why didn't fox give him a high 5?

Locker room drama blah blah blah! The end is coming blah blah blah!

 

[SacTownKid]

You're taking this comparison thing way too literal. As I said before, my goal wasn't to say that Keegan can play like Jason Tatum. Jayson Tatum was about the loftiest comparison anyone had for Keegan Murray as a scorer in the NBA because of their similar size and Keegan's role at Iowa accounting for 1/4 of the team's offense. People weren't calling Keegan a 3 and D role-player a year ago when he led all of NCAA Div. 1 in points scored. The question was how well his offense would translate when he lacks the elite athleticism of the more hyped prospects and if you compare their rookie seasons, they're actually very comparable to the point where I don't think it's a pie in the sky projection for Keegan to become a #1 scorer on a playoff team in the future.

You've watched the Kings play this season -- the reason they have the #1 offense is because they don't isolate and try to take defenders off the dribble (with the exception of Fox and sometimes Monk). What they do instead is rely on dribble hand-offs to create separation and then attack the rotating defense with skip passes to shooters and back door cuts for dunks. In that context I think Keegan could certainly grow into a 25ppg scoring threat without ever taking a single pull-up elbow jumper.

It's not just your comment, we've heard the same things about Tatum. It takes me back to the days of comparing JT to Bosh and the arguments that followed haha. Similar? Yes, but totally different in many ways.

The Kings do have a great team offense, but we've seen 100% that in almost every game someone eventually has to take the bull by the horns and make things happen. And yes, that's Fox. His usage has been climbing because it's needed to. Shooting made up whole lot of difference in the last few playoffs but it's still always seems to come down to who is going to go get you production once the real games begin and a teams system starts to fade. Fox doesn't do what he did in this last stretch and this team doesn't win those games most likely.

 

[Tetsujin]

https://twitter.com/statuses/1634083667508346881

 

[ppine]

Playing great as a rook and he can only get better.

 

[Tetsujin]

https://twitter.com/statuses/1634310131042365441

 

[Vinny Basketballerino]

Calling it now: Keegan will grow to be our clear #3 and a borderline allstar by mid next year. Will be in the running for MIP. His rate of improvement is unreal - and concerns about defense are being rapidly put to rest. Ceiling is a poor man's durant/more athletic Reggie Miller. Mike Brown seems to be an ideal coach for him.

He will be an allstar within four years. Prepare for this post to be screenshotted later.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

Calling it now: Keegan will grow to be our clear #3 and a borderline allstar by mid next year. Will be in the running for MIP. His rate of improvement is unreal - and concerns about defense are being rapidly put to rest. Ceiling is a poor man's durant/more athletic Reggie Miller. Mike Brown seems to be an ideal coach for him.

He will be an allstar within four years. Prepare for this post to be screenshotted later.

He has the right work ethic. It will happen for him.

Fox mentioned that he is playing that Hogwarts game. He said he chose the Hufflepuff house or whatever (not the biggest potterhead, thankfully as I don't want to touch the controversy surrounding the game). I think Fox, Domas, and Keegs are all Hufflepuffs where as 9/12 of the all stars are Slytherins. Dudes that just put their head down and put in the work with no distractions and then win the day.

 

[Padrino]

https://twitter.com/statuses/1634310131042365441

It feels like almost every game now that Keegan has at least one stunning play on either side of the ball that a rookie with his supposed ceiling should not be making.

 

[Vinny Basketballerino]

It feels like almost every game now that Keegan has at least one stunning play on either side of the ball that a rookie with his supposed ceiling should not be making.

That lateral quickness at his size and length is a huge asset. Also, not sure what Robinson was doing but he completely whiffed on that screen on Keegan. He seemed to be too concerned with going for a potential ally oop or something. Doens't take anything away from Keegan on the play, but it appears teams haven't adjusted to his growing defensive prowess. Will be interesting to see how teams adjust to his defense in the playoffs. Gut says Keegan will "adjust" further = mysteriously instantly get better (like he did with the ballhandling challenge issued by Coach).