KF Kings Prediction Poll #25: How many games will the Kings win this year?

[Bricklayer]

Our Final Poll: Prediction Poll #25.

So to close, the traditional poll asked every offseason around this time: how many games do you expect the Kings to win this year? Get it right, and you earn a cookie.


Previous Polls
Poll #1: How Will Reke Do This Year?
Poll #2: TRob's Rookie Season
Poll #3: How Does Our PG Position Play Out
Poll #4: Marcus Thornton's Future Role
Poll #5: Will DMC Be an All Star This Year
Poll #6: Where Will We Finish in the West This Year
Poll #7: Jimmer's Future in the League
Poll #8: How Will The Kings Do On Defense?
Poll #9: What Kind of Start to the Season Will the Kings Have?
Poll #10: What Will Salmons Role Be This Season?
Poll #11: What Will The Kings Record Be Against the Lakers This Year?
Poll #12: Boogie's Numbers?
Poll #13: Cisco's Future With the Kings?
Poll #14: How Long Does Coach Smart Last?
Poll #15: How Much Will James Johnson Give Us?
Poll #16: How Well Will We Pass the Ball This Year?
Poll #17: How Many Sacto Era Greats Make the HOF?
Poll #18: Which platoon player will start the most games?
Poll #19: Who will lead the Kings in steals?
Poll #20: How many points/gm will the Kings average?
Poll #21: How much better will IT get?
Poll #22: Yay for the SKDT!
Poll #23: When do we finally return to the playoffs?
Poll #24: How many Pretty Girls inducing blowouts will we suffer this year?

 

[jcwkings]

We will go 28-54 tbh

If absolutely everything goes right for this team we could go to 35-40 wins, but im expecting 25-30

 

[dvirc218]

aren't you tired from all of these prediction polls?

 

[VF21]

Thanks, Brickie, for helping to pass the waning days of TDOS with all the polls. It's fun to see that there is still some optimism in the land of the Kings.

Nice job.

 

[HndsmCelt]

went high with the 35+ wins... sue me for being an optimist.

 

[rainmaker]

Depends, of course. Could be as low as mid 20's if we don't improve defensively and there's not set hierarchy, leading to everyone in our backcourt thinking their job is to score. Smart has his work cut out for him, as if anyone thought last year was a tough year to coach this team, this year he's got more ego's to deal with, more players playing the same position, meaning he'll have to make tough decisions, and we didn't get any defensive help aside from JJ, and Smart will have to switch his focus from fastbreaking at every opportunity and having all five players on the floor going for steals, to playing sound, fundamental defense.

Then there's injuries which always play a factor. We're screwed if one of JT or Cuz go down for any length of time as we literally have zero size aside from those two.

I think we could also challenge 40 wins if things go well. If Smart defines roles and does have a set hierarchy, and Brooks/IT/MT/Reke buy into their roles, Cuz is involved and continues his maturation, JJ is at least a steady defensive SF, and the focus in training camp is on defense rather than offense, then we could be in the playoff conversation in March/April and challenge 40 wins.

Three huge factors to me are

1) Reke has at least a semi-consistent mid range game at the minimum. I don't care about 3's, and judging by his off season neither does he, which is good. Sounds like he concentrated on midrange pullups, ala Westbrook. If he can hit those at a 42-45% clip, that's a very solid step in the right direction and should help not only round out his game and make him a more consistent offensive force as a 2nd option to Cuz, but it'll help out the entire team as everyone would have more space without defenders packing the paint. Reke doesn't need to become a great shooter. What he needs is the ability to keep the defense honest, and Reke with a midrange game, more room in the paint for cutters/slashers, and the ability of both JT and Cuz to draw their defenders outside as they knock down 15-18footers, should really open things up for everyone.

2) Cuz continues his maturation. Becomes more of a leader. Continues his improved composure on the court. A big thing for Cuz will be the ability to play 35+ mins per night, and that's both conditioning and avoiding foul trouble. Also, better finishing near the rim. He's dropped weight. With a little better balance and a little more explosiveness, there's no reason he can't bump up his shooting % by 3-5% and be nearing 50%.

3) Smart. From the get go, he needs to establish a hierarchy, define roles and get the guys to buy into those roles. This is my biggest question mark regarding him. He's talked about having a 10-12 man rotation. The only coaches who'd ever consider that are ones who won't man up and make the tough decisions. Whoever is the starting PG, IT or Brooks, have to go for 30+ mins a night. You need to show confidence in your starting PG. No more of this pulling IT through the end of the half bulls*** when he was playing well in the 1st. If Reke is the starting SG, you play him 35 mins per night, especially if he has an improved jumper. Our biggest question is managing our backcourt, and Smart cannot just take the easy road and say well all these guys are good, so I'm playing all of IT/Brooks/MT/Reke about 25 mins per night. Enough of the platoon mentality and subbing entire lineups in and out.

Smart needs sound, consistent rotations. No more of this playing guys 18 mins straight and benching them the rest of the half. No one does that. If a guy is playing well, or even if he isn't but you've shown confidence in him and made him a starter, you rest him towards the end of the first and get him back in by the 5-6mins mark of the 2nd. Same thing for 3rd and 4th quarters. Of course there's times someone off the bench is red hot and you ride them a little longer, but he can't keep playing bench players at the expense of the starters losing their momentum and tightening up, which was all too frequent last year.

Along with rotations and managing players roles is defense. Get back to the fundamentals and stress defense starting the 1st day of camp. Focus on it every day. There's a reason Pop's teams and Sloan's teams among others are/were always very good defensively. It's because that's what those coaches stress, day in, day out. Listen to their postgames and they're pissed off because of blown defensive assignments, not because they didn't run enough.

It'll be interesting and we'll get answers pretty soon. We might not see the results of certain teachings for awhile, but we'll be able to tell pretty quickly through pre season games, media coverage and Smart/player interviews what they're concentrating on in camp. Rotations will be tougher to get a grasp on until the last game or two of pre season where coaches normally have their rotations somewhat settled.

 

[Gary]

I am going with 25-29 but wouldn't be surprised if they won about 30-34

 

[Henkel]

I think rainmaker summed it up pretty well, as usual. It's conceivable that Cousins maturation alone could put this team in the 35 win territory, bad coaching and all.

 

[DesertFox]

Reke shot less than 30% from mid-range. League avg is 38. If Tyreke shoots 42-45% he'll be a superstar.

 

[Spike]

3) Smart. From the get go, he needs to establish a hierarchy, define roles and get the guys to buy into those roles. This is my biggest question mark regarding him. He's talked about having a 10-12 man rotation. The only coaches who'd ever consider that are ones who won't man up and make the tough decisions. Whoever is the starting PG, IT or Brooks, have to go for 30+ mins a night. You need to show confidence in your starting PG. No more of this pulling IT through the end of the half bulls*** when he was playing well in the 1st. If Reke is the starting SG, you play him 35 mins per night, especially if he has an improved jumper. Our biggest question is managing our backcourt, and Smart cannot just take the easy road and say well all these guys are good, so I'm playing all of IT/Brooks/MT/Reke about 25 mins per night. Enough of the platoon mentality and subbing entire lineups in and out.

Smart needs sound, consistent rotations. No more of this playing guys 18 mins straight and benching them the rest of the half. No one does that. If a guy is playing well, or even if he isn't but you've shown confidence in him and made him a starter, you rest him towards the end of the first and get him back in by the 5-6mins mark of the 2nd. Same thing for 3rd and 4th quarters. Of course there's times someone off the bench is red hot and you ride them a little longer, but he can't keep playing bench players at the expense of the starters losing their momentum and tightening up, which was all too frequent last year.

This is my biggest question mark going into the season. I don't worry about Tyreke's jumper as much as everyone else. He has the tools without it to be a viable threat when used properly. My main concern is with Smart, for all the reasons you mentioned.

 

[bajaden]

This is my biggest question mark going into the season. I don't worry about Tyreke's jumper as much as everyone else. He has the tools without it to be a viable threat when used properly. My main concern is with Smart, for all the reasons you mentioned.

I do worry about Tyreke's jumper, while at the same time agreeing with your point. The reason I worry is because its Tyreke's contract year. At the end of the year, he becomes a restricted freeagent. The Kings could have offered an extension, but they didn't, and the reason they didn't was probably because of the amount of money Tyreke wanted. Likely a max extension. Without that jumpshot, the Kings probably feel he's not worth a max extension. If so, and Tyreke comes to camp with little or no improvement in his jumpshot, where does that leave the Kings?

In all likelyhood, it leaves them trading Tyreke before the trade deadline, because if they're not willing to offer a max extension now, then I'd say they won't match an offer from another team that does offer a max contract at seasons end. In which case, if they let it come to that, they would lose Tyreke without getting anything in return. Ask yourself, if the Timberwolves were willing to pay Batum the max, wouldn't they be willing to pay Tyreke the max as well? I don't think the Kings can gamble on letting it go to freeagency unless they're totally satisfied with the idea of giving Tyreke a max contract. And I personally believe that all depends on Tyreke coming to camp with a, at least decent jumpshot, and other ways to score around the basket other than at the rim.

Just my personal opinion, and believe me, I don't want to see Tyreke gone. I was one of those that prior to the draft, advocated drafting Tyreke. And contrary to what some believe, so was Kingster. I don't think Kingster dislikes Tyreke. I just think he's more rigid about his expectations. From all players, not just Tyreke.