Kevin Martin, 99% chance of becoming a future Hall of Famer?... no really, look!

Merdiesel

Starter
I believe that Kevin Martin, if healthy this season, would have led the league in free throw attempts, and that's with the worst team in the league. Say we draft/sign a solid young point guard with eyes for the court to get Martin the ball more next season.. he will not doubt lead the league.


Just look at his stats for this season on a bad ankle...
aaoajaabe.jpg

Hes 10th in the league in FTA in around 20 less games then the top guys above whom all have superior point guards feeding them the ball.

Now here is the interesting part. About 99% of the Top 250 FTA Season Leaders in NBA history are in the Hall of Fame or will be in the future. Don't believe me?... check it out for yourself.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/fta_season.html
 
Ah, the beauty of statistics...

;)

I am arguably one of the most myopic of Martin fans on the planet. Having said that, starting a thread that even mentions Martin and the Hall of Fame in the same sentence, paragraph or even day is just asking for people to tear it down, and post a bunch of increasingly negative stuff about Kev in the process...
 
I agree that playing with an even average pg, Kevins offensive numbers would increase. I do think if healthy, and playing with a good pg(top 15), Kevin would average 25-28ppg. If that happened and the Kings were winning more Kevin would see more national exposure and could make multiple allstar appearances.

But the Hall of Fame. NO WAY!

There is much more to look at than FTA. How about 3.6rpg and 2.7apg, and average at best defense. Seems far fetched... especially given he hasn't even made an allstar team yet.
 
Kevin's free throw #s are good but I just wish sometimes he would actually try to make the shot instead of going out of his way to draw a foul.
 
I agree that playing with an even average pg, Kevins offensive numbers would increase. I do think if healthy, and playing with a good pg(top 15), Kevin would average 25-28ppg. If that happened and the Kings were winning more Kevin would see more national exposure and could make multiple allstar appearances.

But the Hall of Fame. NO WAY!

There is much more to look at than FTA. How about 3.6rpg and 2.7apg, and average at best defense. Seems far fetched... especially given he hasn't even made an allstar team yet.


Obviously.
Still doesn't change the fact.
 
the top guys above whom all have superior point guards feeding them the ball.

Well, yeah. Everybody in the NBA who is not in a Kings uniform has a superior point guard feeding them the ball. But I don't think that helps Kev very much.

I'm sceptical, but maybe we can get a pass-first PG before Kevin's over the hill.

I suspect that at least 90% of HoFers have also been All Stars, which Kev's not likely to be any time soon, and that'll probably hurt his chances quite a bit.
 
**Dana Carvey voice**"Hey guys I'm kevin martin I still haven't made it to the all star game but some people say I'm a potential hall of famer because I get to the free throw line"**Dana Carvey voice**
 
only way he'll be in the HOF is if he leads a team to a championship. otherwise, he'll be one of those stat leaders. i'm saying this even tho i'm a huge KMART fan.
 
only way he'll be in the HOF is if he leads a team to a championship. otherwise, he'll be one of those stat leaders. i'm saying this even tho i'm a huge KMART fan.
I think Kevin reminds me of a Dale Ellis mixed with Richard Hamilton type of player, and I doubt either of those two make the HOF anytime soon either, but that being said, is nothing to scoff at...also agree with the fact that of he played any lick of defense that would make a huge difference! That's what separated guys like Dale Ellis and say Reggie Miller, defense and emotion to go along with incredible offensive abilities.

Edit: and I do think Miller has more than just a decent shot at the HOF, btw.
 
Obviously.
Still doesn't change the fact.

Yeah, but that fact doesn't get Kevin close to the Hall of Fame. Kevin is working to get to be an allstar calliber player, which I think he will become. But any talk of Hall of Fame way too premature.
 
**Dana Carvey voice**"Hey guys I'm kevin martin I still haven't made it to the all star game but some people say I'm a potential hall of famer because I get to the free throw line"**Dana Carvey voice**

Hold on now, this is important. Is this Dana Carvey as Garth, or Dana Carvey as The Church Lady?

Let's get to the all-star game first before we think of the HOF.
 
Now here is the interesting part. About 99% of the Top 250 FTA Season Leaders in NBA history are in the Hall of Fame or will be in the future. Don't believe me?... check it out for yourself.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/fta_season.html

Point taken, Merdiesel. You weren't saying that KMart will be a shoo-in HOF but merely that he is on the right track. I can't disagree with that, even if the odds are against him making it that far.

But I will say one thing though: that players who know how to get to the line at a high rate are usually among the high scorers in the league and if they can keep up the production for a decade or so, their stats should look pretty impressive when it comes to HOF consideration. I'm not saying Martin can be that good a scorer for such a long time, but if he does then perhaps HOF is not so far fetch. I guess time will tell.

.
 
Martin's ability to get to the free throw line out of his own accord and by baiting the refs is impressive, but this year in particular, it's really starting to come at the expense of his conversion rates around the basket area. When Martin first started playing meaningful minutes for us in '05, he shot 59% on shots around the basket; the next year, he shot 61% around the basket. In '07, he didn't play much and we were really on our downhill slope of woeful mediocrity, and he still shot a respectable 55% around the basket area--still very good. But now, this year, he's shooting 48% around the basket. I'm noticing that he's missing more layups than usual already, and obviously we're not fighting for any playoff spot and Martin's become much more of a volume scorer than he has in the past, but I have to wonder if there's some mileage concerns--he's taken nearly 2,000 free throw attempts in five seasons, and he's not built in the strong way that guys like Wade and LeBron are. May be a mild concern as he climb our way back to relevance, and he's still only 25, so I suppose that once we get a point guard who can make Martin play off the ball more we'll see his paint conversions increase.
 
lol

Obviously it's completely ridiculous. I'm just saying its pretty ****ing interesting that in everyone's own words Martin will be part of that 1%.
 
If there is a Hall of Fame for one dimensional scorers who get to the free throw line well, then I am sure Kevin Martin has a good chance at that. But a Hall of Fame for complete players who achieved a lot in their career? So far, he has no chance.
 
Point taken, Merdiesel. You weren't saying that KMart will be a shoo-in HOF but merely that he is on the right track. I can't disagree with that, even if the odds are against him making it that far.

But I will say one thing though: that players who know how to get to the line at a high rate are usually among the high scorers in the league and if they can keep up the production for a decade or so, their stats should look pretty impressive when it comes to HOF consideration. I'm not saying Martin can be that good a scorer for such a long time, but if he does then perhaps HOF is not so far fetch. I guess time will tell.

.


Thank you.
 
absolutely not. kevin is not even in the top 40. heck, jameer nelson was selected to the allstar team before martin. this thread was not a good idea. freethrow attempts? please.
 
Here's another statistical oddity. There was a link to this from TrueHoop. It's a discussion of scoring efficiency from a Hornets blog. Scroll down to the "Scoring Support" section where there's a list of what they call "class A scorers" based on scoring efficiency. #3 on the list, after Dwight Howard and Shaq, is Kevin Martin.

Some items of interest from the list - Kobe isn't that efficient of a scorer and if I stuck to my 1.3 points per shot cut off, he would have just missed this list, Shaq and Manu were both fairly low on taking shots this year(11.2), though they retained their efficiency, and Dwight Howard and Kevin Martin's efficiency levels are crazy. For a perimeter player, Martin is flat out insane.

Not anything we don't already know, but it is interesting to look at just how skewed the numbers are.

It's a little simplistic, but it seems to me that there are two ways to contend for a title in the NBA: Field a team with two Class A scorers, and surround them with specialists(see Shaq-Kobe or Shaq-Wade, 2nd Three-Peat Bulls) or field a team with one Class A scorer, and two Class B scorers, then fill in around the edges.(Ginobili-Duncan-Parker, Jordan-Pippen-Grant, Dantley-Thomas-Dumars, Hamilton-Billups-Sheed)

If you follow this logic, it means that we would already be well on our way to fielding a championship team if we just had one dominant post-player to pair with Kevin. Sucks we missed out on Blake Griffin then. Of course, that's to say nothing for defense.

But actually, what's more interesting to me -- and the reason I revived this topic in the first place -- is how different the perception is of Kevin Martin by fans of the Kings and fans of other NBA teams. We're the fans who get to watch Kevin the most, and so many of us are not all that impressed. He's even getting mentioned as trade-bait for expiring Cleveland contracts right now. But if you're a fan of the Hornets and you're trying to figure out how to improve your team next year, you look at the numbers and Kevin Martin's name pops out as you as the Holy Grail of perimeter scorers.

It could be that assembling a collection of scorers is not the best way to win NBA championships. And watching Kevin play every day it becomes hard to ignore that his ultra-efficient scoring often comes at the cost of laissez-faire defense. But defense isn't the whole story. The numbers say you'd rather have Martin playing alongside Shaq than Kobe Bryant, but does reality bear that out? We've never seen Kevin paired up with a dominant inside scorer, so it's just speculation right now. I don't think anyone here would pick Martin over Kobe if you needed a last second shot though. Are Kevin's scoring numbers meaningless points because they don't come at the most critical point in the game?

It also occured to me that reputations are won and lost primarily in the playoffs. Part of the reason Kobe's legend is what it is today is because he was thrust into the NBA playoff spotlight from day one. If he instead played for a nowhere franchise like the Charlotte Hornets, would he be labled as the perpetual choker that TMac has been because he couldn't carry his team to wins in the playoffs? Kobe hasn't actually proven very much since Shaq left town except that he can score a lot of points if he takes almost all of his team's shots. Watching Lebron's buzzer beating three pointer against Orlando reminded me of how Mike Bibby became a top PG in the league primarily because he turned it on in the playoffs and hit shots when they mattered. Lots of guys can score in the NBA, it's scoring in the playoffs in the fourth quarter to turn a game for your team that turns ordinary players into stars. If Kevin Martin played for the LA Lakers would he already be an All-Star?

Getting back to the defense a bit, I don't think we'd be nearly as down on Kevin as we currently are if we had an average collection of defensive players around him. Leading scorers are often allowed to save energy on the defensive end. LA played Bryant on Billups not Melo even when Melo was torching them in games 1 and 2 and Billups was mostly ineffective. Cleveland had Varejao and West guarding Hedo in the fourth quarter even though everyone knows he's the biggest scoring threat late in the game. Lebron was the only guy with the size and strength to guard Hedo properly but Mike Brown didn't ask him to do it because he had to work so hard on the offensive end. Perhaps Kevin's inattention to defense isn't as big of a liability as it appears. Perimeter scorers that efficient are much rarer a commodity than defensive role players who are only average scorers. True two-way superstars are rarer still.
 
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If there is a Hall of Fame for one dimensional scorers who get to the free throw line well, then I am sure Kevin Martin has a good chance at that. But a Hall of Fame for complete players who achieved a lot in their career? So far, he has no chance.

Allen Iverson?
 
Here's another statistical oddity. There was a link to this from TrueHoop. It's a discussion of scoring efficiency from a Hornets blog. Scroll down to the "Scoring Support" section where there's a list of what they call "class A scorers" based on scoring efficiency. #3 on the list, after Dwight Howard and Shaq, is Kevin Martin.



Not anything we don't already know, but it is interesting to look at just how skewed the numbers are.



If you follow this logic, it means that we would already be well on our way to fielding a championship team if we just had one dominant post-player to pair with Kevin. Sucks we missed out on Blake Griffin then. Of course, that's to say nothing for defense.

But actually, what's more interesting to me -- and the reason I revived this topic in the first place -- is how different the perception is of Kevin Martin by fans of the Kings and fans of other NBA teams. We're the fans who get to watch Kevin the most, and so many of us are not all that impressed. He's even getting mentioned as trade-bait for expiring Cleveland contracts right now. But if you're a fan of the Hornets and you're trying to figure out how to improve your team next year, you look at the numbers and Kevin Martin's name pops out as you as the Holy Grail of perimeter scorers.

It could be that assembling a collection of scorers is not the best way to win NBA championships. And watching Kevin play every day it becomes hard to ignore that his ultra-efficient scoring often comes at the cost of laissez-faire defense. But defense isn't the whole story. The numbers say you'd rather have Martin playing alongside Shaq than Kobe Bryant, but does reality bear that out? We've never seen Kevin paired up with a dominant inside scorer, so it's just speculation right now. I don't think anyone here would pick Martin over Kobe if you needed a last second shot though. Are Kevin's scoring numbers meaningless points because they don't come at the most critical point in the game?

It also occured to me that reputations are won and lost primarily in the playoffs. Part of the reason Kobe's legend is what it is today is because he was thrust into the NBA playoff spotlight from day one. If he instead played for a nowhere franchise like the Charlotte Hornets, would he be labled as the perpetual choker that TMac has been because he couldn't carry his team to wins in the playoffs? Kobe hasn't actually proven very much since Shaq left town except that he can score a lot of points if he takes almost all of his team's shots. Watching Lebron's buzzer beating three pointer against Orlando reminded me of how Mike Bibby became a top PG in the league primarily because he turned it on in the playoffs and hit shots when they mattered. Lots of guys can score in the NBA, it's scoring in the playoffs in the fourth quarter to turn a game for your team that turns ordinary players into stars. If Kevin Martin played for the LA Lakers would he already be an All-Star?

Getting back to the defense a bit, I don't think we'd be nearly as down on Kevin as we currently are if we had an average collection of defensive players around him. Leading scorers are often allowed to save energy on the defensive end. LA played Bryant on Billups not Melo even when Melo was torching them in games 1 and 2 and Billups was mostly ineffective. Cleveland had Varejao and West guarding Hedo in the fourth quarter even though everyone knows he's the biggest scoring threat late in the game. Lebron was the only guy with the size and strength to guard Hedo properly but Mike Brown didn't ask him to do it because he had to work so hard on the offensive end. Perhaps Kevin's inattention to defense isn't as big of a liability as it appears. Perimeter scorers that efficient are much rarer a commodity than defensive role players who are only average scorers. True two-way superstars are rarer still.

Bravo, great post.
 
Allen Iverson?

Career averages of 6.2ast and 2.2stl, 4 scoring titles, 1 steals title, 1 MVP award, along with however All NBA appearances.

This whole thread is actually a wonderful example of how the wrong stats, applied without a feel for the real environment, can mean absoilutely nothing at all. These sorts of deep esoteric analyses almost always seize upon offensive stats, and very often upon "efficiency" as some sort of indicator. Offensive efficiency, in whatever form, is almost invariably just another way to say a guy is a good FT shooter, or three point shooter, or both. And yet the entire history of the league suggests no two traits could be further removed from championship relevancy. The greatest number of titles have been won precisely by centering around big men who often struggle from the line, and never shoot threes (Shaq, Duncan, Big Ben, Admiral, Hakeem etc. etc.). These big men are very often paired with small players that far from being shootists (whihc is what the efficiency stats measure), are often slashing attackers who may or may not be efficeint from either the stripe or the three point line. Tony Parker and Dwayne Wade have rings. Kobe picked up three early in his career when he was a 30% 3pt shooter. Reggie Miller and Steve Nash and Peja Stojakovic never will have any. Glen Rice only has one because he coattailed on the back of one of those big bad FT shooters. Etc.
 
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The grass is always greener on the other side of the fence. Know why that saying keeps being used? Because it keeps being true...

At some point, you realize that you cannot keep switching things around in your search for the perfect combination of players. You build the best you can with some kind of plan in mind, and you go from there.

We don't need to trade Kevin. We need to accept him for who and what he is and continue to rebuild in the places where we need the most improvement. Look at the cries of outrage that continue to this day over Gerald Wallace. And what about Hedo Turkoglu? You let really good players go and what happens? They go on to bigger and better things with other teams while we wallow in the bottom of the barrel. And no, I'm not saying we should have kept either of them. I'm saying that Petrie is building a team that might not be the best individually at each position but he has a proven knack for getting combinations of players to exceed their individual potentials.

People need to quit dumping on Martin and, to revert to the original OP, they also need to quit pretending he's going to be more than he is.
 
The grass is always greener on the other side of the fence. Know why that saying keeps being used? Because it keeps being true...

i would LOVE to see which GM looks at the kings' roster and goes "man, their grass is so much greener." :p
 
I wasn't talking aboit GMs. I was talking about fans who always think there's a better player to replace a pretty good one, without looking at the big picture.

;)
 
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