Jason Thompson: Just what is his value?

[bajaden]

There are those that simply want to get rid of a player based on emotional feelings that occur during a game. Or perhaps some just need a whipping boy to explain the losses and JT happens to be the flavor of the month. I happen to value JT more than some. But I look at it from the outside. Or at least I try to. The Kings, and to some extent, the fans have an investment in Thompson. Its just that I'm sure management looks at it through different lenses than most fans.

So I went around the league and did some comparisons to players that I thought might be considered similar in percieved ability. Some less and perhaps some more. So here are the players with how long they've been in the league, their career stats in points, rebounding, blocks and field goal averages, followed by their current contract length and the dollars committed on the contract.

Jason Thompson: Starting 3rd yr. 11.5 PPG - 7.8 RPG - 0.8 BPG - 48.3% FGA. 2 years left on rookie contract including this year. Current salary 2.2 million, and 3 million next yr. Currently averaging 5.8 PPG with limited minutes.

Villanueva: Starting 6th yr. 13.1 PPG - 5.9 RPG - 0.6 BPG - 44% FGA. Has 4 years left on contract including this one. Is making 7 million this year, and 8.5 Million in final yr. Currently averaging 15 PPG.

Amir Johnson: Starting 6th yr. . 4.9 PPG - 4.2 RPG - 1.0 BPG - 60.1% FGA. Has 5 years left on contract including this one. Is making 5 millinon this year, and 7 million in final yr. Currently averaging 8.8 PPG.

Dwight Gooden: Starting 14th yr. 11.9 PPG - 7.9 RPG - 0.7 BPG - 47.1% FGA. Has 5 yr's left on contract including this one. Is making 5.7 million this yr, and 6.7 million his final yr.
Currently averaging 10.7 PPG.

Varejao: Starting 7th yr. 7.0 PPG - 6.7 RPG - 0.7 BPG - 52.1% FGA. Has 5 yr's left on contract including this one. Is making 7 million this yr, and 9.8 million his final yr.
Currently averaging 9.5 PPG.

Tyrus Thomas: Starting 6th yr. 8.2 PPG - 5.2 RPG - 1.9 BPG - 45.2% FGA. Has 5 yr's left on contract including this one. Is making 6.6 million this yr, and 9.3 million his final yr.
Currently averaging 12.1 PPG.

Udonis Haslem: Starting 8th yr. 10.0 PPG - 8.1 RPG - 0.3 BPG - 50% FGA. Has 5 yr's left on contract including this one. Is making 3.5 Million this yr, and 4.6 million his final yr.
Currently averaging 8.6 PPG. It should be noted that he took less money to remain with Miami.

Marcin Gortat: Starting 4th yr. 3.8 PPG - 4.4 RPG - 0.8 BPG - 55.4% FGA. Has 4 yr's left on contract including this one. Is making 6.3 million this yr, and 7.7 million his final yr.
Currently averaging 5.9 PPG.

Andry Blatche: Starting 6th yr. 8.8 PPG - 4.9 RPG - 0.9 BPG - 46.8% FGA. Has 5 yr's left on contract including this one. Is making 5.9 million this yr, and 8.4 million his final yr.
Currently averaging 17 PPG. He did nothing his first 4 yr's in the league, and suddenly blossomed last yr.

Chris Anderson: Starting 8th yr. 5.4 PPG - 5.3 RPG - 1.6 BPG - 49.7% FGA. Has 4 yr's left on contract including this one. Is making 3.9 million this yr, and 4.8 million his final Yr. Currently averaging 5.9 PPG.

Channing Frye: Starting 6th yr. 8.8 PPG - 4.7 RPG - 0.6 BPG - 45.4% FGA. Has 5 yr's left on contract including this one. Is making 5.2 million this yr, and 6.8 million his final yr.
Currently averaging 7.7 PPG.

I tried not to use any of the top PF's or Centers in the league, but just those guys that would be considered blue collar types. I think we can safely say that if your tall and somewhat athletic and can do just one thing well, you can get a contract for a substantial amount of money. So if you think Thompson doesn't have value around the league your crazy. Its a common trait to undervalue your own players and overvalue the other teams players.

Chris Anderson has made a living doing just one thing. Blocking shots and playing actually just OK defense otherwise. Make no mistake, its his shotblocking that gets him his reputation. In reality, he's not very good at anything else. Frye has made a living shooting 3 pointers. He's a terrible man to man post defender but not bad as a weakside help defender.

Before your willing to give up on Thompson, remember that until halfway through last year Blatche was considered a borderline bust. Two things happened. A light went off in his head, and opportunity knocked.

As I've said before. I'm willing to trade Thompson, but I want equal value for him. Bigs that can contribute are hard to come by. Guards aren't. If you don't think so then you tell me why Gortat is making the money he makes. I'll tell you. Its because its hard to find someone else that can do whatever he does that will play for less. On a personal note, I think he's overpaid. But you can't fault him for that.

By the way, bear in mind that Thompson is the youngest player listed here and has played the fewest years.

 

[cfechter]

Excellent analysis, thank you.

I completely agree with you. If you look at JT's season last year - it was the tale of three seasons -

November/December, averaged about a 15/9.5/1 block shooting about 50%. With those numbers, JT had a Player Efficiency Rating (I'm a Hollinger stat geek) of about 17 which means he was an above average player.

Not so coincidentally when the Kings season went down the tube the next 2.5 months, his minutes dropped because of foul trouble and his plummeting shooting percentage - he averaged mid-20's in minutes, shot about 40% (which is wholly unacceptable for a big guy) and went about 9/7/.5 blocks.

Then - last 10 games of the season, was up at about 15/10 again.

It would be interesting to see what this guy would do with 35 minutes per game this year.


Anyone who wants to dump him for less than full consideration is a fool. If he really could average 15/10/1 block, we're looking at a very above average PF in this league and someone who could be a #3 on a very good team.

It seems like the only thing keeping him from this potential is an inability to finish at the rim......and Paul Westphal's sporadic rotations.

 

[stevetaebo]

As I've said before. I'm willing to trade Thompson, but I want equal value for him.
By the way, bear in mind that Thompson is the youngest player listed here and has played the fewest years.

JT is definitely the best value due to his cheap rookie contract. I'm hesitant to even trade JT because his stats and lack of PT indicate he's a depreciating asset.

I rather at this point play JT more at 29ppg at PF or C and pimp up his stats. He'd be more trade-able at that point.

 

[PacMan]

I wish we had drafted Roy Hibbert. He was drafted after Thompson in the same year and the guy is a beast now.

 

[Asaf]

I wish we had drafted Roy Hibbert. He was drafted after Thompson in the same year and the guy is a beast now.

He would probably be playing SG here...

 

[Kingster]

Nice data.

To me, Thompson looks to be priced about right, based on all those other players.

I'm not quite as interested in his monetary value as his trade value, especially if it were for a guard or a wing.

 

[bajaden]

Nice data.

To me, Thompson looks to be priced about right, based on all those other players.

I'm not quite as interested in his monetary value as his trade value, especially if it were for a guard or a wing.

Well to a certain extent a players monetary value is related to his trade value. On average players making fairly good money are doing so because their services are valued. There are exceptions of course, but in most cases its because of an injury, or a brain dead GM. As far as Thompson being price just right. He's a pretty good deal at the moment when you compare him to Villanueva. I'd rather have Thompson than him and look what he's making. Tyrus Thomas was pretty much brain dead for the first 4 years of his career. He like Anderson made whatever reputation he had from blocking shots. He wasn't a scorrer or a rebounder, and seemed for the longest time to have zero basketball IQ. Yet he'll be making 9 mil in the last year of his contract.

In my opinion JT hasn't had a fair shot this season. He had three bad games in his first five starts. Landry had five bad games in his first five starts, but Westphal stuck with him and gave him the minutes to shake off the rust. Not so with Thompson. I realize that life isn't fair. It is what it is. But if Thompson is traded and suddenly blossoms for another team, I'm not going to be a happy camper. I'm not sure that Westphal likes young players. I don't mean on a personal level, but as the main cogs on his team. He'd rather play a Udoka or a Sean May if he could get away with it. He likes experienced players. And I don't blame him. Every coach does!! But he knew what he was getting into when he signed on, so he doesn't have much choice in the matter. I just don't want him to forget why he was hired in the first place.

 

[R2D2]

Its a common trait to undervalue your own players and overvalue the other teams players.

Actually, psycology shows it is the other way around...
Check "The High Price of Ownership" at: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictably_Irrational

But other than that I would only say that in order to answer the question "Jason Thompson: Just what is his value?" you MUST first play him at his position (hint: not SF...) and only then find out the answer. I, like you Bajaden, feel that it will be much higher than currently perceived. But maybe that's because we are both just predictably irrational...

Nevertheless, thanks for yet another insightful perspective.

 

[Asaf]

Actually, psycology shows it is the other way around...
Check "The High Price of Ownership" at: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictably_Irrational

But other than that I would only say that in order to answer the question "Jason Thompson: Just what is his value?" you MUST first play him at his position (hint: not SF...) and only then find out the answer. I, like you Bajaden, feel that it will be much higher than currently perceived. But maybe that's because we are both just predictably irrational...

Nevertheless, thanks for yet another insightful perspective.

That is an awesome book!

 

[Kingster]

Well to a certain extent a players monetary value is related to his trade value. On average players making fairly good money are doing so because their services are valued. There are exceptions of course, but in most cases its because of an injury, or a brain dead GM. As far as Thompson being price just right. He's a pretty good deal at the moment when you compare him to Villanueva. I'd rather have Thompson than him and look what he's making. Tyrus Thomas was pretty much brain dead for the first 4 years of his career. He like Anderson made whatever reputation he had from blocking shots. He wasn't a scorrer or a rebounder, and seemed for the longest time to have zero basketball IQ. Yet he'll be making 9 mil in the last year of his contract.

In my opinion JT hasn't had a fair shot this season. He had three bad games in his first five starts. Landry had five bad games in his first five starts, but Westphal stuck with him and gave him the minutes to shake off the rust. Not so with Thompson. I realize that life isn't fair. It is what it is. But if Thompson is traded and suddenly blossoms for another team, I'm not going to be a happy camper. I'm not sure that Westphal likes young players. I don't mean on a personal level, but as the main cogs on his team. He'd rather play a Udoka or a Sean May if he could get away with it. He likes experienced players. And I don't blame him. Every coach does!! But he knew what he was getting into when he signed on, so he doesn't have much choice in the matter. I just don't want him to forget why he was hired in the first place.

So you must have seen tonight the brain-dead foul he did on the Knick player in the first few minutes of the game; it was Thompson's second foul. Reynold's couldn't help himself and let out a palpable groan. I think Kings management is also at their breaking point. And then there were additional foolish things that were done. The tragic thing, based on Thompson's interview, is that Thompson seems to think he's the victim. You can see it in his face when he talks about playing the 3, even when the guy he is playing is seven feet tall. I really don't think he gets it at all.

So I've got Teague, Avery Bradley, Beaubois, and Dragic on my wish list.

 

[Prince_XY]

As far as Thompson being price just right. He's a pretty good deal at the moment when you compare him to Villanueva. I'd rather have Thompson than him and look what he's making. Tyrus Thomas was pretty much brain dead for the first 4 years of his career. He like Anderson made whatever reputation he had from blocking shots. He wasn't a scorrer or a rebounder, and seemed for the longest time to have zero basketball IQ. Yet he'll be making 9 mil in the last year of his contract.

Just exactly what is your point in this thread?

First, I don't think the Kings will trade Thompson to get one of those more expensive PF players you listed above in your starter thread. I don't think the Kings will even trade Thompson for another good BIG because we have an over-supply of good BIGs. In fact, trade Thompson today and we might not even miss his services because we have plenty of BIGs who can play his position. We might even be better in the long run because it will open-up minutes for both Whiteside and Greene at the PF --> good for both players development.

Second, you mentioned a guard in exchange for Thompson is also a NO-NO.

Are you saying Thompson is indispensable even if it means balancing this team?

This thread it seems was made to be deceivingly in favor of pro-Thompson fans, because it does not take into consideration Thompson's value to the Kings. It is incomplete and therefore a poor analysis of Thompson's over-all and REAL value especially when talking about trading him.

Yes, Thompson is a very good BIG compared to the BIGs of other teams. But we cannot keep hording on all good BIGs resulting to imbalance in our roster. Along the process of rebuilding, we will be needing to give up one of our good BIGs to get a player who would balance the roster. If we have to, I hope we give-up Landry first. And if we have to unload another good BIG, my next candidate would be Thompson.

 

[mr. moustache]

Just exactly what is your point in this thread?

First, I don't think the Kings will trade Thompson to get one of those more expensive PF players you listed above in your starter thread. I don't think the Kings will even trade Thompson for another good BIG because we have an over-supply of good BIGs. In fact, trade Thompson today and we might not even miss his services because we have plenty of BIGs who can play his position. We might even be better in the long run because it will open-up minutes for both Whiteside and Greene at the PF --> good for both players development.

Second, you mentioned a guard in exchange for Thompson is also a NO-NO.

Are you saying Thompson is indispensable even if it means balancing this team?

This thread it seems was made to be deceivingly in favor of pro-Thompson fans, because it does not take into consideration Thompson's value to the Kings. It is incomplete and therefore a poor analysis of Thompson's over-all and REAL value especially when talking about trading him.

Yes, Thompson is a very good BIG compared to the BIGs of other teams. But we cannot keep hording on all good BIGs resulting to imbalance in our roster. Along the process of rebuilding, we will be needing to give up one of our good BIGs to get a player who would balance the roster. If we have to, I hope we give-up Landry first. And if we have to unload another good BIG, my next candidate would be Thompson.

The point I got was accepting Jeff Teague for JT would be an asinine move for the Kings.

 

[Arby's Roast Beef]

I've went through that sort of roller coaster ride with Thompson--at first I hated him because I really wanted raw athletic clay we could mold (i.e. Anthony Randolph, JaVale McGee) or an absolute big (Roy Hibbert) in that draft. Not to mention at the time I was skeptical about what would be his bread and butter in the league. He's already displayed his warts early on, such as his tendency to play at too high a speed and his foul proneness, but he's steadily evolved into a very adequate role player--basic inside/outside offensive game with solid rebounding ability and adequate overall defense despite the foulproneness and lack of shotblocking, but he's definitely a cog player impact type player.

I think he can help us as a hustle player who chases all the loose balls and act as a catch and shoot guy off kickouts, but if a team really values him and gives us assets in return we could afford to part with him. I think he'd be more useful in a playoff team as a cog piece.

 

[bajaden]

Actually, psycology shows it is the other way around...
Check "The High Price of Ownership" at: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictably_Irrational

But other than that I would only say that in order to answer the question "Jason Thompson: Just what is his value?" you MUST first play him at his position (hint: not SF...) and only then find out the answer. I, like you Bajaden, feel that it will be much higher than currently perceived. But maybe that's because we are both just predictably irrational...

Nevertheless, thanks for yet another insightful perspective.

As far as the value of players, I think you misunderstood me. I referring to how fans overvalued the other teams players and had a tendecy to undervalue their own players, especially when it came to making trades. Now the owners are a different story. They see the players as representing an investment. As a result they tend to overvalue what they have.

 

[bajaden]

Just exactly what is your point in this thread?

First, I don't think the Kings will trade Thompson to get one of those more expensive PF players you listed above in your starter thread. I don't think the Kings will even trade Thompson for another good BIG because we have an over-supply of good BIGs. In fact, trade Thompson today and we might not even miss his services because we have plenty of BIGs who can play his position. We might even be better in the long run because it will open-up minutes for both Whiteside and Greene at the PF --> good for both players development.

Second, you mentioned a guard in exchange for Thompson is also a NO-NO.

Are you saying Thompson is indispensable even if it means balancing this team?

This thread it seems was made to be deceivingly in favor of pro-Thompson fans, because it does not take into consideration Thompson's value to the Kings. It is incomplete and therefore a poor analysis of Thompson's over-all and REAL value especially when talking about trading him.

Yes, Thompson is a very good BIG compared to the BIGs of other teams. But we cannot keep hording on all good BIGs resulting to imbalance in our roster. Along the process of rebuilding, we will be needing to give up one of our good BIGs to get a player who would balance the roster. If we have to, I hope we give-up Landry first. And if we have to unload another good BIG, my next candidate would be Thompson.

Sorry to get back to this so late, but I'm confused about what was so hard to understand. I had no agenda other than to give Thompson some sort of economic value as to his worth, by comparing him to other similar blue collar type playes that are bigs. My ultimate point is that I think he has more vlaue than Teague. Its as simple as that. It had nothing to do with my not wanting to trade Thompson, or even not trade him for a guard. There are guards I would certainly trade him for. Teague just doesn't happen to be one. Sorry you didn't like my analysis. I really appreciate your kind words..